92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Great video Levi.
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1140. Patrap
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Seems to me the old LLC that we've been tracking is dying out and beginning to rotate around a new LLC, the former ULL that had been hampering the original circulation, is working its way down to the surface while injecting heat into the atmosphere. This is supported by satellite showing the vort max we've been tracking beginning to broaden out and move SW in accordance with the possibility of a new low forming to the north.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Also wondering if the lower level swirl is now beginning to rotate around the ULL that seems to be working downward. The ULL has been stationary a while now.
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1137. SeALWx



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Quoting 1106. Patrap:

Yep, I think it's going to be a subtropical storm.
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1135. Levi32
Good evening.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, August 16th, with Video
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
The naked low level swirl we've been watching all day is finally on the move...to the SSE. Makes me wonder if something is beginning to happen at the surface underneath the upper low and the naked low is beginning to be absorbed by a different swirl.

..Or, the low level swirl is feeling a tug by the intense convection over the Yucatan that has recently fired up. Interesting scenario, to say the least.

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Quoting 1119. ncstorm:


lol..you should have changed it to "should" as that what the NHC used for Earl's discussion about the supposed turn..
I took a look at the CFS model from yesterday and further out in time it shows that scenario, but I mean we are talking like 2 weeks out, and lord knows what the steering pattern will be like then. It's good to see the GFS finally showing something of significance and not these pip squeak storms. For those still hanging their hat on dry air continuing to suppressing activity well that is all going to change with the weaker high and we are already seeing signs of the high weakening with a weaker storm in Erin taking the northwestward route. Now it's not to say the High can't build back in and strengthen, but the wave that is about to exit off of Africa will have optimal conditions for strengthening down the road as it nears the islands where the sst increases and the stable airmass will no longer be present. The next one behind that might have the best conditions yet.

I know some will say well we have been saying that for the past couple of weeks, well actually in most seasons the storms don't get cranking until after the 20th, especially the Cape-Verde ones and we have already had 3 storms despite weak ones form over the Eastern Atlantic, that should be more than enough to tell you conditions are actually better than some would like to admit.
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1132. Patrap
Looks almost as if the surface Vort is spinning out, and the overall is beginning to Win.

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reunion islands bull sharks have been out of control. their felet mignon are people.
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1130. Roark
Quoting Relix:


*looks at join date*

Aaah, yeah. Just don't listen to her.


Probably not wise to read a lot into a join date.
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1129. N3EG
I can say for sure there will be no Thingamabobbercasting in the Pacific this year. Zonal flow says no.
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When is the upper level low supposed to diminish? IMO the dry air situation appears to be becoming more favorable, and with good TCHP in it's path it should do well beyond the troubles it is experiencing with the ULL, and before the jet stream interacts with it. Also, with a well defined LLC, will persistent convection be all it needs in order to be classified as a depression?
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Quoting 1116. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It should be noted if this sets up like 2010 where Danielle recurved OTS and Earl made a close brush along the East Coast we "could" put an emphasis on could, have the same scenario shaping up here.


You can see the high there probably is going to take place, of course at this time frame is just speculation..
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Quoting 1125. HurricaneAndre:
Guys I will be off 9a Saturday-10p Sunday,Sunday is my birthday,so if anything happens,email me at andrbrooks0@gmail.com.


I think we will live.
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Guys I will be off 9a Saturday-10p Sunday,Sunday is my birthday,so if anything happens,email me at andrbrooks0@gmail.com.
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img src="">
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Large amount of convective activity in the western Yucatan. Looks near enough to be worked into the LLC. Will be something to monitor.
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1122. VR46L
Quoting 1112. flcanes:
How about this to prove who to exactly ignore.
No downcasting, wishcasting, DOOMCASTING, fishcasting, or any other form of that sort.
And no Bustcasting either.


... If that's the case ya need to put the whole blog on iggy :p
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Seen a few post from people in the C.C.,TX area Lived in Refugio and CC from 1980 until 2000. Really started to dry up around 1990. Still make business trips to Aransas Pass and Brownsville about every 6 weeks. I can't ever remember it being this dry in that area, and that includes when I would visit my grandparents in Brownsville in the 60's and early 70's. Actually bought lake front on CC lake in
1989. When we dumped it 1999, the lake was about 60 feet from our pier.
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Quoting 1116. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It should be noted if this sets up like 2010 where Danielle recurved OTS and Earl made a close brush along the East Coast we "could" put an emphasis on could, have the same scenario shaping up here.

danielle was much farther east than future fernand. based on that logic when earl scrapped the outter banks then gabrielle would eventually hit land. if that plays out. who knows. what if both dont recurve :O consistency is what we need
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1119. ncstorm
Quoting 1116. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It should be noted if this sets up like 2010 where Danielle recurved OTS and Earl made a close brush along the East Coast we "could" put an emphasis on could, have the same scenario shaping up here.



lol..you should have changed it to "should" as that what the NHC used for Earl's discussion about the supposed turn..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
While it looks quite impressive, the ULL is not producing cloud tops as cold as earlier. On the rainbow IR, it's mostly all yellows and greens near the center. It may steal some convection off of the Yucatan, though.
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Quoting 1112. flcanes:
How about this to prove who to exactly ignore.
No downcasting, wishcasting, DOOMCASTING, fishcasting, or any other form of that sort.
And no Bustcasting either.



I got a few more mxcasting FL casting did I for get any
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It should be noted if this sets up like 2010 where Danielle recurved OTS and Earl made a close brush along the East Coast we "could" put an emphasis on could, have the same scenario shaping up here.

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1115. centex
Remember blog is very short sighted. They ignore NHC and only post how current loop does not excite them. They down cast in these situations, funny same ones call for RI when things start to blow up. Best to ignore them, not trolls but not far from it.
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Quoting 1111. wunderweatherman123:
levi's site wont open for me now, i cant acess the GFS :(

fish storms
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Quoting 1107. washingtonian115:
Did someone say fish..




If I re call last year or the year before some one got ban for posting a photo of a fish durning the time we have a name storm and a invest out there


Just saying
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1112. flcanes
How about this to prove who to exactly ignore.
No downcasting, wishcasting, DOOMCASTING, fishcasting, or any other form of that sort.
And no Bustcasting either.
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levi's site wont open for me now, i cant acess the GFS :(
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1110. ncstorm
US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
The recent cool, rainy weather has had a large impact on ocean water temperatures. At Myrtle Beach the ocean has cooled by 5 degrees in the past 5 days, now only 76 degrees in the surf. For me that's too cold -- how about you?
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1109. JLPR2


Interesting, initially the area emerging now seemed to be mostly mid-level but it seems to have dug down to the surface and it's strengthening.
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So it looks as if the circulation of the ULL is finally elongating to the SW above the LLC. Could this finally be a sign of the courtship ending, and the marriage being arranged?


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Did someone say fish..
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1106. Patrap
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1104. ncstorm
Quoting 1091. GTstormChaserCaleb:
In a pattern like this the East Coast would need to keep an eye on it. The A-B High will take it as far west as it can until it reaches the edge and then a turn north when that happens (early or late) will be the key.


the ensembles will tell the story..
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1103. Relix
Quoting 1026. Camille33:

i am sorry to hurt some feelings but those waves are just mcs there is no vorticity with them so nothing is forming but enjoy those bright colors! they will fall apart as they hit the water


*looks at join date*

Aaah, yeah. Just don't listen to her.
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Quoting 1079. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Gabrielle and Humberto if 92L becomes Fernand.

. Yeah maybe but not fishy , fishy !
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Quoting 1075. HurricaneAndre:
Everyone,stop down casting,it's getting on my nerves.



If you don't like it use your ignore tool that is what its there for
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1099. centex
Quoting 1087. TexasHurricane05:


Exactly, that is why I wish it would develop or not. Whichever, just do it. Just would like to know either way. Do hope we can get some rain though.
We are hurting real bad. The population increase only increases the problem. I've learned to hate the coastal rice farmers which require more water than major US city to support a small economy. They cut them off but couple years too late.
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I giving all of you the stare.
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Quoting 1090. RkptMom:


Hey want2, I'm in Rockport, just up the road from you. And yes, some lovely tropical rain would be awesome. Watching and waiting.



It would definitely be a blessing!
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Quoting 1091. GTstormChaserCaleb:
In a pattern like this the East Coast would need to keep an eye on it. The A-B High will take it as far west as it can until it reaches the edge and then a turn north when that happens (early or late) will be the key.
the run is laughable, it moves due north after due west! do you find that reasonable ? :P
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1095. ncstorm
Quoting 972. KoritheMan:
I wonder how many people will start whimpering like two year olds about how the season is shaping up to be just like 2010, 2011, and 2012 all because Erin will likely recurve? You know, regardless of the fact that most CV systems, especially ones in Erin's location, eventually recurve anyway?

I'm sure it's only a matter of time.


they wont be satisfied even then..will find something else to complain about..its getting very tiring to read some of the stuff posted here..
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1094. flcanes
Quoting 1091. GTstormChaserCaleb:
In a pattern like this the East Coast would need to keep an eye on it. The A-B High will take it as far west as it can until it reaches the edge and then a turn north when that happens (early or late) will be the key.

Wasnt it the farmers almanac who forecasted a hurricane on the east coast in september.....
LOL.
But your point is valid. I myself am going to keep all supplies (and fresca! fully stocked)
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watch out for that Cape Verde tropical storm
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Definitely fun times ahead.
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Quoting 1083. CybrTeddy:
Fantasy land of course but the GFS is starting to become consistent in the long range of the possibility of numerous Cape Verde hurricanes developing as the result of the upward MJO. Fun times ahead if this verifies.
In a pattern like this the East Coast would need to keep an eye on it. The A-B High will take it as far west as it can until it reaches the edge and then a turn north when that happens (early or late) will be the key.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather