92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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2391. ricderr
thank you for that graphic rmadillo which points out what i've been saying for three days now....there is an eye


ricderr...100 percent correct...and my bs don't stank either
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2390. LargoFl
skeeters are really going to swarm after this whew..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
well nothing too exciting in the tropics today. I am still keeping an eye on the area of disturbed weather in the CATL near 47W. since the detachment of Erin from the ITCZ. it has now allowed convection to build in this general area 12N 47w. Although vorticity is not as strong as yesterday, i still expect the 850mb vorticity to improve. no matter what happens with this disturbance I believe it is a fore runner of what to expect , come the next 6 weeks.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
WV on the increase right along the northern gulf coast. At least 10% more than earlier, easily.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2264. IKE:

Glad I got my new tin roof last fall. Unbelievable rains.


"Tin roof... Rusted!"

Didn't know you lived in the love shack! :-P
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2386. ricderr
here's one i like...the blog is flowing smoothly.....things are moderately on topic...and someone will have to post this....


When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.


look ma.....i'm a mod...LMAO


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Quoting 2384. ricderr:
I give his 80% Wednesday odds 50% for correctness.



hmmm...must not be grading on the curve


No. Points off for MLA errors too.
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2384. ricderr
I give his 80% Wednesday odds 50% for correctness.



hmmm...must not be grading on the curve
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Quoting 2382. Dakster:


They say the figures never lie, but liars always figure.


110%
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2382. Dakster
Quoting 2381. MisterPerfect:
Dr. Masters:

"In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively".

Doc has a little over 13 hours for his 70% odds to be 100% correct for Sunday. I give the correctness of his odds 20% in six hours and 30% in 12 hours for his 70% odds for Sunday. I give his 80% Wednesday odds 50% for correctness.


They say the figures never lie, but liars always figure.
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Dr. Masters:

"In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively".

Doc has a little over 13 hours for his 70% odds to be 100% correct for Sunday. I give the correctness of his odds 20% in six hours and 30% in 12 hours for his 70% odds for Sunday. I give his 80% Wednesday odds 50% for correctness.
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2380. LargoFl

..TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TRACKING THROUGH THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO

PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET
CONFIDENCE: A BIT BELOW AVERAGE

A WEAK SURFACE LOW/WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ITS 00Z/17 POSITION WEST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SOUTH FROM
YESTERDAYS 00Z GUIDANCE BY SUN MORNING OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS ENOUGH OF A DEFINED SURFACE LOW...CLOSE
IN POSITION TO THE GFS/UKMET TO INCLUDE IT IN THE PREFERENCE.
THEREFORE...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET BEST REPRESENT AN AGREEMENT
WITH TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL AND ATCF GUIDANCE AS WELL AS WITH
PRIOR RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...NHC...CAUTIONS THIS SYSTEM HAS A
40% CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ALWAYS REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM THE NHC FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM.

...UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL
CA...

PREFERENCE: 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GFS HAS HELD VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
OVER ITS PAST THREE 12/00Z RUNS...WITH OTHER GUIDANCE SHIFTING
TOWARD THE GFS FROM YESTERDAY. THE GFS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS BY TUE MORNING AND HAS AGREEMENT FROM THE 00Z NAM
AND 00Z ECMWF. THE 00Z CMC/UKMET CONTINUE TO BE A BIT WEST OF
THESE MODELS...BUT NOT BY MUCH AND FALL COMPLETELY WITHIN THE
SHRINKING SPREAD SEEN IN THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI HEIGHT PLOTS.
STRONG RIDGING WHICH HAS HELD STEADY FOR SOME TIME NOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE SHORT RANGE...THROUGH 12Z/20.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
..500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML

OTTO
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2379. LargoFl
Quoting 2373. daddyjames:


Well, at least the models have been consistent with 92L.
yes it seems so. especially where the rains are going
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Quoting 2369. daddyjames:


I'm not sure that that this convection will be fired off up to the north so quickly. it does not appear to be directly associated/influenced by the ULL or the trough at the moment.

Heck, the GC certainly could use a breather.

Well I'm at the epicenter of the rain here near Ft. Walton Beach Florida. And both because all the rain just runs through the sandy soil and then I live on a sandhill, a lot of this area doesn't have the flooding problems you would find in places that have pure clay or something else that doesn't drain.
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2377. Dakster
Quoting 2336. Grothar:


Not for me. I can see a number of you have had trouble with the poor thing. (and it ain't over yet.


I am beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel for 92L. I just hope it isn't the train coming my way.
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2376. Thrawst
.
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2375. ncstorm
00z Euro Ensembles on Erin..its not sold on the north path as the GFS
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2374. Grothar
Quoting 2338. ricderr:
That's why I wrote it. I always get a big kick out of when people fight and they are saying the same thing.


i thought as much...but if i didn't respond although i should have been more huffy...we couldn't continue a mad war over the subject....and by the way...not only am i right and you wrong...i was first!


Always good to start the day with laugh. Seriously, I will be watching this one yet.

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Quoting 2351. LargoFl:


Well, at least the models have been consistent with 92L.
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2372. LargoFl
not only rain up there but possible BAD weather along with it..stay alert folks........................SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
955 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

FLC035-109-171405-
/O.EXP.KJAX.SV.W.0129.000000T0000Z-130817T1400Z/
ST. JOHNS FL-FLAGLER FL-
955 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR FLAGLER AND ST. JOHNS COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 AM EDT...

ALTHOUGH THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...HAIL UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

LAT...LON 2942 8110 2941 8115 2927 8114 2926 8116
2926 8141 2939 8143 2940 8148 2951 8152
2975 8152 2984 8158 3016 8136 2988 8126
2977 8125 2944 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 1355Z 212DEG 17KT 3006 8125 2966 8121
2946 8136

$$
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2371. Hhunter
Quoting 2367. CaneHunter031472:
Well, I will start looking forward to the 213-14 winter, since there's nothing interesting going on

Link



be patient its coming very soon..
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Quoting 2356. LargoFl:
36-48 hours,models bring it up to TS...

Just looks like a frontal boundary to me. This is exactly what a lot of the models were showing at times. Area of elongated convection bringing rain to the NE Gulf Coast.
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Quoting 2362. Grothar:


The convection has been steadily increasing all morning. Either that or it is just getting ready to fire some heavy rain to the Northeast.


I'm not sure that that this convection will be fired off up to the north so quickly. it does not appear to be directly associated/influenced by the ULL or the trough at the moment.

Heck, the GC certainly could use a breather.
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2368. LargoFl
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Well, I will start looking forward to the 213-14 winter, since there's nothing interesting going on

Link

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2366. LargoFl
Quoting 2361. Jedkins01:


Because moisture will remain deep, and an easterly flow will return with high pressure building back over the southeast. The difference is that we will have more sun and less high clouds, and greater instability with cooling mid level temps compared to the last few days.

I truly believe the next several days will be wetter than the previous few, even though Thursday and yesterday were supposed to be very wet days. Technically, last nights activity was actually today's since it moved in after midnight.
yeah yesterday was 50% and i got about 3 raindrops lol..well we'll see what happens..west coast seabreeze is supposed to be stuck along the west coast for awhile..that should help rain chances.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2353. oceanspringsMS:


It and Allen are the only 2 recorded storms to hit land with wind speeds of 190 MPH. Some speculate the the wind speed could have been higher, but Camille destroyed all the speed monitors


Anemometer at Keesler broke at 167 if I remember correctly..I was 15 yrs old living in the Fla panhandle. We tied flare parachutes to our
bicycles and got pulled along by steady 30 mph
winds all the next day after Camilles landfall..
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Quoting 2345. beeleeva:
We ar definitely in need of 92L s rain in Katy, Tx...


We are in need of rain in Corpus Christi TX too. It is just so dry here. Was hopping for something from 92L although our local meteorologists (and I use that term loosely) said no way jose would we get rain from 92L.
(sigh)
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2013 Florida summary in one word:

RAIN

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2362. Grothar
Quoting 2354. daddyjames:


We're employing reverse psychology. Since put on the map, it has refused to do anything but got a lot of attention. Figure that, if we ignore it, it might actually do something.

On a serious note, convection seems to be firing on the surface trough of low pressure, aided by, but not directly from, the (still, i insist) weakening ULL. If anything is gonna occur, it'll be in the next 36 hrs.


The convection has been steadily increasing all morning. Either that or it is just getting ready to fire some heavy rain to the Northeast.
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Quoting 2138. LargoFl:
I wonder why the local mets increased rain chances in the 7-day?


Because moisture will remain deep, and an easterly flow will return with high pressure building back over the southeast. The difference is that we will have more sun and less high clouds, and greater instability with cooling mid level temps compared to the last few days.

I truly believe the next several days will be wetter than the previous few, even though Thursday and yesterday were supposed to be very wet days. Technically, last nights activity was actually today's since it moved in after midnight.
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Quoting 2354. daddyjames:


We're employing reverse psychology. Since put on the map, it has refused to do anything but got a lot of attention. Figure that, if we ignore it, it might actually do something.

On a serious note, convection seems to be firing on the surface trough of low pressure, aided by, but not directly from, a the (still, i insist) weakening ULL. If anything is gonna occur, it'll be in the next 36 hrs.

reverse psychology..whoda thunk ? lol

yeah, I see the refiring on the satellite imagery. This has been one aggravating little system.
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I really think this season is gonna be as boring as 06 and 09 and i hated the two seasons booorrrrriiinnngggg.
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2358. Grothar
Quoting 2355. MisterPerfect:


on the other hand, I actually enjoy people squabbling over similar viewpoints.


LOL.
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Quoting 2352. ncstorm:
Oklahoma Tornado Survivors Start New School Year



Been featured predominantly here. Obviously, there is a range of emotions associated with it.
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2356. LargoFl
36-48 hours,models bring it up to TS...
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Quoting 2331. Grothar:



That's why I wrote it. I always get a big kick out of when people fight and they are saying the same thing. :)


on the other hand, I actually enjoy people squabbling over similar viewpoints.
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Quoting 2347. hurricanehanna:
...morning. 92l stalled ? Does this change the chance of development now ? Did I miss why it is no longer shown on the WU map ?


We're employing reverse psychology. Since put on the map, it has refused to do anything but got a lot of attention. Figure that, if we ignore it, it might actually do something.

On a serious note, convection seems to be firing on the surface trough of low pressure, aided by, but not directly from, the (still, i insist) weakening ULL. If anything is gonna occur, it'll be in the next 36 hrs.
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Quoting 2309. JeffStang:
Today marks the 44th anniversary of the landfall of Hurricane Camille here on the MS Gulf Coast. I'm thankful still that I only remember parts of it due to my age.


It and Allen are the only 2 recorded storms to hit land with wind speeds of 190 MPH. Some speculate the the wind speed could have been higher, but Camille destroyed all the speed monitors
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2352. ncstorm
Oklahoma Tornado Survivors Start New School Year



Nearly three months after a massive tornado wound through Moore, Okla., destroying two elementary schools on the last day of school, parents and students headed back to class Friday for the first day of the new school year.

Two elementary schools, Briarwood and Plaza Towers Elementary, were destroyed in the EF-5 tornado that hit the Oklahoma City suburb. Twenty-four people were killed in the storm, including seven students from Plaza Towers Elementary.

On Friday morning, Plaza Towers Elementary students started a new school year with therapy dogs and a large banner that read "Plaza Towers Elementary School. Welcome."

The approximate 300 students are using a facility formerly used by the Central Junior High School, now nicknamed "Plaza 800," a combination of the elementary school's name and the building's former nickname.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2351. LargoFl
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Good morning. Getting some steady rain here in South Baldwin County. And the worst part is that I have to get out in it. Oh the joys of being a mother to a teenaged daughter .lol
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I'm already starting to think about winter weather... That's how boring this season has been to me. I hope for a dry and cold winter. I'm sick of this rain. Haven't cut the grass in three weeks and it's looking like a jungle out there.
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...morning. 92l stalled ? Does this change the chance of development now ? Did I miss why it is no longer shown on the WU map ?
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2346. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING MID
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
DEVELOPING STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 MPH AND THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PRODUCE NUISANCE STANDING WATER IN LOW
SPOTS AND ON ROADWAYS MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING. SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS OF NEARLY
AN INCH IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. SOME AREAS MAY SEE TWO TO THREE
INCHES WELL INLAND NEAR THE INTERSTATE FOUR CORRIDOR AND THEME
PARKS.
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We ar definitely in need of 92L s rain in Katy, Tx...
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2343. LargoFl
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2342. mfcmom

Panama City here. "Sittin on the Dock of the Bay, watching the rain wash everything away". Who dropped a bucket of water on us. The dolphin in the backyard are trying to escape. Jeesh.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather