92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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92L



You know he's got that look
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Quoting 837. Tribucanes:



Ya, we know, busted season, and worst looking TD ever. With the season over completely, wonder why your still even here. Oh yeah, to repeat your downcasting endlessly.
Never said a bust season, season is DEF not over, and others have said it looks bad lol. Not just me.
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It's true that 92L may get too strong but we've seen surprises down there in the boc. Will see!
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Quoting 822. SuperStorm093:
If it does form into a TD, it will be the worst looking one lol



Ya, we know, busted season, and worst looking TD ever. With the season over completely, wonder why your still even here. Oh yeah, to repeat your downcasting endlessly.
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(click to enlarge)

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Quoting 832. ncstorm:


well thats a good thing right? I mean we not on here to track monsters that will cause death and destruction.


Quoting 830. MisterPerfect:


a shame?


Refresh your post. I mean it's a waste of a name for a powerful sounding hurricane. Dorian too.
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Quoting 831. AtHomeInTX:


Yeah, fingers crossed. :)

Toes crossed here as well!! IF we so much as get a drop of rain out of this every forecaster in SE Texas will need a crow sandwich especially Bostwick!! Lol
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Quoting 823. Levi32:
A couple of GFS ensemble members really crank Pewa in the western Pacific after crossing the dateline, but the majority keep the storm weak. It would be fun to see a long-track trans-Pacific storm.



Would be an interesting one to track for sure. The last tropical cyclone to do that was Ioke in 2006.
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Quoting 829. CybrTeddy:
Starting to look like 92L will finally develop into a Tropical Depression and then Tropical Storm Fernand. Which is a shame, because 92L will probably never go beyond 40kts if it becomes Fernand.


well thats a good thing right? I mean we not on here to track monsters that will cause death and destruction.
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Quoting 824. centex:
Just what we've been looking for but uncertainty is still very high.


Yeah, fingers crossed. :)
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Quoting 829. CybrTeddy:
Starting to look like 92L will finally develop into a Tropical Depression and then Tropical Storm Fernand. Which is a shame, because 92L will probably never go beyond 40kts if it becomes Fernand.


a shame?
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Starting to look like 92L will finally develop into a Tropical Depression and then Tropical Storm Fernand. Which is a shame, because 92L will probably never go beyond 40kts if it becomes Fernand. I was hoping to see Fernand as a long tracked Cape Verde hurricane.
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Quoting 823. Levi32:
A couple of GFS ensemble members really crank Pewa in the western Pacific after crossing the dateline, but the majority keep the storm weak. It would be fun to see a long-track trans-Pacific storm.


is 92l forming sub tropical cyclone??
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I know every piece of scenery in the GOM due to the many radar loops of it..
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I actually cried when Phil & Kay got married...How sad is that?
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The Arch Duke Franz Ferinand of Austria was assassinated. This was the beginning of WW1
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Quoting 812. AtHomeInTX:
GMZ001-170845-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
444 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 91.5W IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TO MOVE NW TONIGHT REACHING NEAR 22N94W SAT
AFTERNOON AND NEAR 25N95W LATE SUN...AND MOVING INLAND THE SE
TEXAS COAST LATE MON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH MON. A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD.
Just what we've been looking for but uncertainty is still very high.
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A couple of GFS ensemble members really crank Pewa in the western Pacific after crossing the dateline, but the majority keep the storm weak. It would be fun to see a long-track trans-Pacific storm.

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If it does form into a TD, it will be the worst looking one lol
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remember any tropical system coming ashore can and often do..throw off tornado's..wherever this low comes ashore..stay alert.
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820. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
3:00 AM JST August 17 2013
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Utor (996 hPa) located at 25.0N 111.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
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Another stinking mess in Washington DC

http://abcnews.go.com/US/t/video/national-mall-po nd-yields-1000-dead-fish-19971403


Yes, this is weather related.
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Some people saying this could be subtropical.... Why are they saying this?
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Wow, it is refiring!

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815. Kyon5

Quoting 794. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Liking the avatar man. Erin cleared the way for the next wave, should be an interesting one to track.
Thanks, lol. Yeah, the wave is also farther south. Which means warmer SST's, less dry air and moisture from the ITCZ.
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Quoting 809. animalrsq:
Lack of steering in the Gulf is frustrating enough. If the NHC begins using the word "meandering" it will be time for concern. :)
I was afraid someone would bring up the word "Meandering"
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Quoting 778. LouisianaWoman:
Gfs has it going through one of the hottest parts of the gulf. Isn't there a certain "spot" right there that is known for causing RI? There's like 2 of them in the ATL. One is by the islands and one is beneath LA?


That may be so, but the problem seems to be wind shear on various sides during the crossing, messing with it trying to go RI, IMO. Although the very warm water, hot air temps, are a plus for it. Could get interesting if the shear were to dissipate.
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GMZ001-170845-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
444 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 91.5W IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TO MOVE NW TONIGHT REACHING NEAR 22N94W SAT
AFTERNOON AND NEAR 25N95W LATE SUN...AND MOVING INLAND THE SE
TEXAS COAST LATE MON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH MON. A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 161420
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 16 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-076

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA - GULF OF MEXICO
FIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 17/1800Z A. 18/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0206A CYCLONE
C. 17/1545Z C. 18/0945Z
D. 23.0N 93.0W D. 24.5N 94.5W
E. 17/1730Z TO 17/2200Z E. 18/1130Z TO 18/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON TCPOD 13-075 CANCELLED
BY NHC.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
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Lack of steering in the Gulf is frustrating enough. If the NHC begins using the word "meandering" it will be time for concern. :)
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Well, I guess asking for a Lily 2002 outcome is a bit far fetched (weakening upon arrival to the coast).
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806. Kyon5
Quoting 794. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Liking the avatar man. Erin cleared the way for the next wave, should be an interesting one to track.
.
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92L is looking much better late this afternoon, and appears on its' way to becoming a TC in the next 12 hours. 92L has been stationary since sunrise this morning, and under the current steering it is not going anywhere very fast ATT. I would expect that once this thing becomes completely stacked and strengthens into a TD, or TS it will begin moving pretty quickly off towards the northern Gulf coast due it feeling the connection to the frontal boundary.
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GEM Ensemble Spread likes the AOI in the Central Atlantic and gets close to the East Coast.

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Quoting 778. LouisianaWoman:
Gfs has it going through one of the hottest parts of the gulf. Isn't there a certain "spot" right there that is known for causing RI? There's like 2 of them in the ATL. One is by the islands and one is beneath LA?


SSTs are definitely warm enough in the gulf right now. I think if the storm didn't have to contend with the sheer, numerous tugging from different surrounding pressure variances and had more time over the fuel then this could surprise us. Just too many variables out there right now and I still wonder if we even have a closed off circulation yet? Exciting to watch though.
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92l?
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Is it just me, or does it look like the LLC took a jog towards the center of the ULL? Getting sucked under it?

Edit: Seems like it was just some deceiving cloud tops, but still, the two are coming ever closer.
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Quoting 793. Patrap:


Here we go pat:)
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Quoting 788. Kyon5:



Sal almost gone.TD Erin is cleaning the area.
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Quoting 776. SuperStorm093:
The fact of the matter is 92l isn't really going to be anything other than a TD, its getting a lot of hype it seems though. I just hope now it goes to texas for the drought relief.
keep in mind that 92L is in one of the warmest bodies of water in the world. Sizzling. Pure energy for a system. Of course it's going to have other problems (ex dry air) but crazier things have happened in the gulf in August....
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Quoting 788. Kyon5:

Liking the avatar man. Erin cleared the way for the next wave, should be an interesting one to track.
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Quoting 783. calkevin77:


Thanks WPB. I've been doing my rain dance all day and trust me...y'all don't wanna see me dance :-O
Maybe yes, Maybe no
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Quoting 784. centex:
What happened to the ULL NE of 92L. Have they already stacked?

Not really sure..it's very close to it.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather