92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting 784. centex:
What happened to the ULL NE of 92L. Have they already stacked?

Not really sure..it's very close to it.
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TROPICAL STORM PEWA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012013
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 16 2013

BASED ON MICROWAVE PASSES JUST BEFORE 1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF
PEWA...PRONOUNCED /PEH-VAH/...WAS ADJUSTED SOUTH IN THE RUNNING
BEST TRACK. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM THE FIX AGENCIES CAME IN WITH 35
KT ACROSS THE BOARD SO THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
PACKAGE. CLOUD TOPS FROM LAST NIGHT/S BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER HAVE STARTED TO WARM A BIT BUT A NEW BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER DEVELOPED IN THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. PEWA HAS GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR PEWA IS 280/12 KT...OR TOWARD THE WEST. A
GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE OBJECTIVE AIDS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE AND HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTH A
BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL
POSITION.

ALONG THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND ITS CURRENT VALUE NEAR 28C AND OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT WILL BE INCREASING. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS
POINT WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE AFTER PEWA CROSSES THE DATELINE AND APPROACHES AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. BASED ON THESE FACTORS...THE CURRENT PACKAGE CALLS FOR
PEWA TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY AT AROUND 36 TO 48 HOURS THEN WEAKEN.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS CLOSE TO THE HWRF
TREND. IF THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH BEYOND 72
HOURS...PEWA MAY WEAKEN MUCH FASTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 9.7N 174.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 10.1N 176.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 10.8N 178.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 11.5N 178.6E 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 12.2N 176.2E 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 13.5N 171.2E 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 15.0N 166.0E 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 17.5N 161.0E 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PEWA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012013
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 16 2013

...PEWA MOVING TOWARD THE WEST FAR SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.7N 174.6W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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788. Kyon5

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that model is a complete joke like the CMC.

By the way, looking back on it. The Euro has done well with this system.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

...ERIN CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 33.3W
ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF ERIN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL
WITH SMALL PATCHES OF CONVECTION. SINCE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF
THE CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
30 KT. THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY LIES OVER 25-26C WATERS AND IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH ERIN WILL BE
MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A
STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS
BEFORE...AND KEEPS ERIN STEADY STATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ERIN COULD
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OR AN OPEN TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS SHOWN BY SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

ERIN REMAINS ON TRACK...AND IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 KT. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE DEPRESSION FEELS
SOME INFLUENCE FROM A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SLIGHT
BEND TO THE LEFT IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN ERIN LIES
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THEREAFTER...A TURN BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS ERIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...MOVES TOWARD
ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED
NORTHWARD FOR THIS ADVISORY TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 17.7N 33.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 18.8N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 19.8N 37.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 20.4N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 20.9N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 22.7N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 25.0N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 28.0N 53.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Quoting 778. LouisianaWoman:
Gfs has it going through one of the hottest parts of the gulf. Isn't there a certain "spot" right there that is known for causing RI? There's like 2 of them in the ATL. One is by the islands and one is beneath LA?
Loop Current Eddy, Dr. Masters has an entry about it. Enjoy :)

Link

There is actually 3 currents I know of in the Atlantic.
1) Loop Current
2) Gulf Stream
3) Labrador Current
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What happened to the ULL NE of 92L. Have they already stacked?
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Quoting 754. GeoffreyWPB:
I hope the parts of Texas that need the rain receive it from 92L...



Thanks WPB. I've been doing my rain dance all day and trust me...y'all don't wanna see me dance :-O
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so remains of Utor get dragged across India and the arabian peninsula, flow into Africa, and ultimately make it to the Atlantic where they are watched as blobs. Got it.

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GOM Sea Height Anomaly

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Quoting 736. Joanie38:
Hmmm, so 92L is projected to go into Texas?? SWLA could really use the rain.


IMO, I think it will do both...unless she moves fast into No. Mex. or So. TX.
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Quoting 766. muddertracker:
Link

ESLU water vapor

Awesome!! Really starting to wrap the convection around its center!!
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Gfs has it going through one of the hottest parts of the gulf. Isn't there a certain "spot" right there that is known for causing RI? There's like 2 of them in the ATL. One is by the islands and one is beneath LA?
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Just got back from my dentist...He said I needed a crown...I was like" I Know,Right"?
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The fact of the matter is 92l isn't really going to be anything other than a TD, its getting a lot of hype it seems though. I just hope now it goes to texas for the drought relief.
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I see that 91C has gained sufficient organization to become Tropical Storm Pewa. Recently, there has been little change in organization and structure for Pewa during the last few hours; but nonetheless, steady strengthening is expected. 90C is struggling to develop, due to its proximity to Pewa. Upper-level outflow of Pewa has resulted moderate westerly shear to 90C.

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Quoting 727. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Push, pull, and tug, 92L caught in that steering.



One map I was looking at for rather high levels shows a general NW flow across the central GOM, although somewhat narrow in nature.
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Quoting 760. ncstorm:
12z run

TUTT north of the Caribbean the cause for the GFS not being so bullish of development of the AOI?

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Quoting 762. RapidInsanity:


That's What She Said haha

I am sitting right in the middle of that! :(


You've been watching way too many Jay Cutler interviews...possibly...lol j/k
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Going to mexico 92l
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well for the tampa bay area, not a drop of rain here..unless we get the sea breeze kinda storm this evening that 50% chance was overblown..now tomorrow its 60%..we'll see what happens...one good thing, the semi cloud cover kinda kept it from getting blasting hot like yesterday.
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 161420
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 16 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-076

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA - GULF OF MEXICO
FIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 17/1800Z A. 18/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0206A CYCLONE
C. 17/1545Z C. 18/0945Z
D. 23.0N 93.0W D. 24.5N 94.5W
E. 17/1730Z TO 17/2200Z E. 18/1130Z TO 18/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON TCPOD 13-075 CANCELLED
BY NHC.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

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Link

ESLU water vapor
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Quoting 549. CybrTeddy:
Gotta love it when people post that they believe the season is a bust without evidence. Happens every year.

Go back to August 16th, 2010 on Dr. Master's blog and have a laugh.
Every year?? It happens every day.

You and everyone else need to let it go. There's no point in reasoning with trolls. We all know the season isn't a bust. Each time you respond to them you actually encourage their trollish behavior. The reason trolls are such a problem on this blog is because you guys continuously feed them with the attention they crave. Please stop feeding the trolls.
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Looking at the GOES-E satellite loop, it appears to me 92L is completely stationary in the GOMEX.
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Quoting 755. ncstorm:
almost 9 inches in some places


That's What She Said haha

I am sitting right in the middle of that! :(
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Quoting 715. sar2401:

True, but horrendous is still horrendous. :-) 92L has had a lot of time and decent conditions to get organized but still hasn't done so. With time running out, it has to do something soon or it will never be more than a tropical wave.


I agree...& disagree.
If she slows forward progress, I think it will actually help in that she may wait out a spat of deveoping shear predicted for just off the So. Texas coast. If so, it would allow her to hang on of rebuild a bit if she suffers some loss via wind shear in crossing the GOM.
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12z run

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Quoting 756. TomTaylor:
Maybe if the wave can gain latitude, separate itself from the monsoon trough, and rally some model support.




Those westerlies you keep looking at are clearly associated with the monsoon trough. Folks at the NHC aren't going to waste their time with the monsoon trough and zero model support.


But will be a rainmaker for sure in the islands.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED AROUND 50
WEST LONGITUDE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
ITCZ WHICH WILL CREATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA. LATEST SJU-GFS PROGNOSIS SOUNDING ARE INDICATING PW VALUES
WILL INCREASE UP TO 2.25 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UNDER A
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BETWEEN 0-3KM LAYER. THESE FACTORS...WILL
COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BETWEEN MONDAY AD WEDNESDAY NEXT
WEEK. KEEP INFORMED ON LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE HOW THIS
SITUATION EVOLVES.
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Experimental late-cycle models, the 12z FIM didn't run
:(. but I'll take the NAM track. Although a hook to the west before landfall can't be ruled out, Texas may get something yet.



GFS Ensembles:

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Quoting 754. GeoffreyWPB:
I hope the parts of Texas that need the rain receive it from 92L...

Feast or Famine
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Quoting 647. kmanislander:
The circulation is looking better and better with this feature but it does need some deep convection to really get going. This time yesterday the circulation was devoid of any cloud cover to speak of so it has improved some in the past 24 hours but apparently not enough to warrant the NHC circling it yellow at 10 or 20%. That may change later today or this evening.

Maybe if the wave can gain latitude, separate itself from the monsoon trough, and rally some model support.




Those westerlies you keep looking at are clearly associated with the monsoon trough. Folks at the NHC aren't going to waste their time with the monsoon trough and zero model support.
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I hope the parts of Texas that need the rain receive it from 92L...

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what happened to this going to Mexico..

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Quoting 750. tropicfreak:
Exiting Africa... cue blobzilla.

thats not a blobzilla bro
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Exiting Africa... cue blobzilla.

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Approaching Tiger Prawn size.


Quoting Patrap:
Da shrimp is growing


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RE: 721

Patrap, didn't we have wake low go through the NOLA area a few months ago? If I remember, we had some strong winds for a short period of time. It was interesting.
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CMISS Water Vapor for 92L. It's wrapping up nicely.

Link
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745. L1990
i would have thought the new convection would have started fireing by now... maybe it has a trick up its sleeve that we dont know about
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Quoting 715. sar2401:

True, but horrendous is still horrendous. :-) 92L has had a lot of time and decent conditions to get organized but still hasn't done so. With time running out, it has to do something soon or it will never be more than a tropical wave.


Andrea developed under worse conditions... and it became a 65 mph storm. Don't underestimate tropical systems.
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Quoting 739. RGVtropicalWx13:

One is 92L and the other is the ull closing in and trying to stack with the llc.

Makes sense!!
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You've got my vote!
Quoting 659. PanhandleChuck:
Gonna start a petition to get Pensacola's named changed to Seattle!

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Quoting 735. tropicfreak:


Unless my eyes are playing tricks on me, am I seeing 2 circulations? There is one that is exposed, and another underneath the convection where it seems to be trying to wrap around.


I see the naked swirl to the west and some circulation off to the northeast of it as well.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather