92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 641 - 591

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Might be a thunderstorm or two attempting to fire on the NE side of the center.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
635 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013


GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033 -041>045-052>055-
073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-171145-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANG ELINE-
ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
635 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS EXPECTED
TO ADVANCE INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF AND CONTINUE A SLOW WEST TO
NORTHWEST TRACK. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS FEATURE TO
TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR
THE LATEST OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS
SYSTEM.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

$$



Member Since: Posts: Comments:

TPW (Total Precipitable Water) is showing the wave of 92L fully entering the GOM.
Click to enlarge. BBL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
637. VR46L
Quoting 603. catastropheadjuster:
Am I understanding this right, from Alabama to Florida don't have nothing to worry about with 92L know?

sheri


Personally I would keep an eye on it ... Keep up to date with your local NWS .. most folk here are amateurs keen and knowledgeable...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
When upper low over llc it does not enhance convection over it as the cold core is very dry. It will fire storm around it and may be get a sub tropical cyclone going!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION...A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME...SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO SEND SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS THROUGH OUR
WEBSITE...TWITTER...FACEBOOK OR CALL OUR OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've been working on updating my chase blogs for this season on my website, and the time came to do my write up for one of my favorite chases this year, check it out!

May 28th, 2013 Bennington, Kansas Tornado

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
633. Skyepony (Mod)
Modis...It seems close enough to the Yucatan in an area where the curve of the coast may help the lower level pull together more.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 628. calkevin77:


Most of those models put 2/3rds of the state in the wettest part of the storm...and fairly far inland so this very well could be that elusive drought buster us Texans have been wishing for. I'd also like to personally win the lottery and have a few properties between 20-25N & 70-75W but for some reason that hasn't happened yet. Fingers crossed though...for both sets of wishes :-P


I know what those models are suggesting (it coming to TX) but I think I am still in denial. I need more proof.
Hopefully we will get the rain we need though. Good luck on that second wish... lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
nevermind...not working.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
630. Skyepony (Mod)
Terra got a good pass on 92L..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 617. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
so your head is still in the clouds then


lol
My head is almost always in the clouds....I live on a mountain..:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 593. Levi32:
18z model suite is out:



Most of those models put 2/3rds of the state in the wettest part of the storm...and fairly far inland so this very well could be that elusive drought buster us Texans have been wishing for. I'd also like to personally win the lottery and have a few properties between 20-25N & 70-75W but for some reason that hasn't happened yet. Fingers crossed though...for both sets of wishes :-P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 623. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
after sunset it should start to fire convection


Could not agree more!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
East central Fla has been pretty dry (at least in my area) for a good week+
Ready for the tstorms any time now!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
625. Skyepony (Mod)
There was an explosion at a S GA oil, chemical recycling plant Wednesday. From what I've read they dealt with radioactive waste too.. Now 3/4 of the facility is wasted..




Today's explosion is in NY, an asphalt plant..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 618. Rmadillo:


actually the ULL is drifting over the lower level circulation, which will help to enhance convection near the center



Say what you guys want im downcasting this for the time being, may change we'll have to see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 618. Rmadillo:


actually the ULL is drifting over the lower level circulation, which will help to enhance convection near the center
after sunset it should start to fire convection
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bears fans! Now we're talking! Haha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My thoughts on 92-L. It already has a well defined LLC, so all it really needs is thunderstorm activity, which I believe it will be able to fire off soon. The only thing that gives me uncertainty in my forecast is the Upper Level Low system to its Northeast right now. If it gets stacked with the Low level center, then maybe we may be talking about some development being imminent. If it remains to the Northeast, it may never be able to develop. As Levi would say, "We shall see what happens!" ;-)

(click to enlarge)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 611. Levi32:


Working on it...I just woke up 30 minutes ago lol.


oh ok....Sorry. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 614. chrisdscane:



The ULL is really tearing up the system, looks like my forecast will verify of an open wave heading west.


actually the ULL is drifting over the lower level circulation, which will help to enhance convection near the center
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 611. Levi32:


Working on it...I just woke up 30 minutes ago lol.
so your head is still in the clouds then


lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 613. CaneHunter031472:


Erin... The next little storm that couldn't. But trust me, 2013 will be the remembered as the Hurricane Season that could, so don't let your guard down. The peak of the season is still at least two to three weeks away...


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
615. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 570. louisianaboy444:
Looking at the water vapor loops, it appears 92L is doing a good job of moistening the air on its western and southwestern flank. Keeping that in mind, I believe this convection may try to start filling in on the western side throughout the evening and overnight



The ULL is really tearing up the system, looks like my forecast will verify of an open wave heading west.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 608. VR46L:
Death of a storm in MINIC

Erin


Erin... The next little storm that couldn't. But trust me, 2013 will be the remembered as the Hurricane Season that could, so don't let your guard down. The peak of the season is still at least two to three weeks away...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 604. SouthernIllinois:

Sarcasm at it's finest. Oh and just LOVED the Dexter pic when he was looking out to sea. lol. So cute!


You saw Taz's namesake too (following page) I hope? That was a little sweetheart. Dex ignored him. hrumph!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 599. TexasHurricane05:


What are your thoughts on this Levi?


Working on it...I just woke up 30 minutes ago lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TS Pewa 1800 update:

CP, 01, 2013081618, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1740W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 10, 10, 40, 1009, 180, 40, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, PEWA, D,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 588. CybrTeddy:
583. No, and that's because conditions aren't that unfavorable across the Atlantic this year. What you're mistaking for dry air is actually a lack of vertical instability in the tropical Atlantic, which was present during several active hurricane seasons including the last two and is not a season killer. Shear is below average across the Gulf of Mexico:


Average across the Caribbean:


Average/below average across the tropical Atlantic.


Shear is an important factor, perhaps even more than vertical instability. Shear combined with high SSTs and a moist environment would definitely spawn a few storms here and there even if Vertical instability is not present.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
608. VR46L
Death of a storm in MINIC

Erin
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am hesitant to discount the effect vertical stacking will have on the evolution of 92Ls track.

The trough is to the north, and with even modest development, the system will increasingly feel the tug of that weakness I believe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 602. SouthernIllinois:

Nice avatar. I know it's just preseason which never matters, but I like what Trestman is doing with the offense.


Yeah, I watched the first half last night.

Sitting here in Aiken, SC 2 days of rain and barely hitting 70. 67 out there now. At least I have football :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
most of the models bring it up to TS within 48 hours.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Am I understanding this right, from Alabama to Florida don't have nothing to worry about with 92L know?

sheri
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 593. Levi32:
18z model suite is out:



I assume your mailbox is just jam-packed with apologies for your audacious predictions yesterday (that turned out correctly).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 593. Levi32:
18z model suite is out:



What are your thoughts on this Levi?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CybrTeddy their's no point in arguing...He's the type that you will explain and explain over and over again and he won't get it through his head..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 593. Levi32:
18z model suite is out:



Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 593. Levi32:
18z model suite is out:



I'm glad to see that Texas might be getting some very needed rain after all. I just pray that there are no surprises and all they get is a low end TS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 561. Bluestorm5:
NHC think 92L got a high chance of formation and also doing experiments on forecasting invests.

@NHCDirector 50s
This year NHC is experimenting in house with track/intensity forecasts for disturbances with high chance of formation.


I've had this thought myself before with systems like 90L back in May of 2009. The NHC puts out useful track and strength forecasts for named storms/depressions, but if there's one wind barb that's not closed in an invest, they won't do anything. It doesn't really make practical sense.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18z model suite is out:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is the NHC getting paid by the number of named storms this year? We've had 5 named storms this year already? Sure we have.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 513. Tropicsweatherpr:


I am a little surprised NHC didn't mentioned it at 2 PM.
I don't think the NHC will highlight every tropical system that may give us some rain and wind, remember we are in the rainy season for our part of the world.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 641 - 591

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather