92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2341 - 2291

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index



92L as predicted by the GFS has become a huge source of moisture and rain for the central Gulf Coast. The CoC has stalled as well. What happens from here is anyone's guess but IMHO I don't see it developing into anything other than a huge rain maker. It might also help cool down the GOMEX which is a good thing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2338. ricderr
That's why I wrote it. I always get a big kick out of when people fight and they are saying the same thing.


i thought as much...but if i didn't respond although i should have been more huffy...we couldn't continue a mad war over the subject....and by the way...not only am i right and you wrong...i was first!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2330. stormgirI:
vertical instability and SAL look really bad this year.not favorable for tropical development of anything higher than a minimal ts.look at erin.forecated to be a remnant low in 5 days.at the middle to end of august???? shear and dry air also are a problem this year too. starting to wonder if we'll even make it to the j storm....


Come on sg - at least change it up once in a while. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2336. Grothar
Quoting 2327. Dakster:


92L has been a tricky little bugger huh?


Not for me. I can see a number of you have had trouble with the poor thing. (and it ain't over yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2323. Hhunter:
Link

water vapor shows mid level swirl getting under convection
That convection is about to get pulled apart and the tropical feed is about to continue for the panhandle of FL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2334. ricderr
just have a look at this seasons forcast,


i belive you are talking about pre-seasonal tropical total forecasts and if so i would agree with you...however it appears that a lot of money is contributed to entities such as colorado u and i would gather that is in hope that they will improve and be an advantage for business to forecast trends due to weather
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2332. LargoFl
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2331. Grothar
Quoting 2318. ricderr:
grothar
You're way wrong. I think it is stationary and and new low might be forming over the increasing convection

ricderr

I would think it is stationary, however the low might be reforming....

ahem....gro....didn't we say almost the same thing? LMAO



That's why I wrote it. I always get a big kick out of when people fight and they are saying the same thing. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2328. LargoFl
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2327. Dakster
Quoting 2311. Grothar:


You're way wrong. I think it is stationary and and new low might be forming over the increasing convection.




92L has been a tricky little bugger huh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2324. hydrus:
The EURO has Baha getting whacked.

The NAM 33 hours out.
They are up to the "I" named storm now right hydrus?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2318. ricderr:
grothar
You're way wrong. I think it is stationary and and new low might be forming over the increasing convection

ricderr

I would think it is stationary, however the low might be reforming....

ahem....gro....didn't we say almost the same thing? LMAO
LOL sounds like the same thing, I think Grothar is just pulling your chain ricderr, unless my reading comprehension skills are bad? :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2324. hydrus
The EURO has Baha getting whacked.

The NAM 33 hours out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2323. Hhunter
Link

water vapor shows mid level swirl getting under convection
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2322. LargoFl
I guess no chance 92 crossing back into the eastern side of the gulf huh over time?...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2320. 19N81W
Quoting 2306. ricderr:
I have learn a lot from this blog from trolls wish caster even down caster I think this is the best tropical blog each person brings a different view on the tropics.


i have a real perverse view of this blog....but to start...yes i have learned much, mainly where to look and how to gather information.....but when the rubber meets the road...most of what is said on here is speculation and i would not trust my safety or those that i love with it....what i truly enjoy though...is there are a few young men that posted as weather geek teenagers a few years back that are now persuing their degrees as mets in college...and one made the claim the other day....that the more he learns the worse his forecasts seem to pan out....not only a great lesson in humility...but a great lesson in the amount of respect we should have for the professionals


I think your right in many respects....I will add though that the more time I spend on here and following the weather in general even the so called experts are just slightly better than a guess most of the time...just have a look at this seasons forcast, heck the beloved Dr. Masters himself told us to look out for a potential tropical storm along the texas coast sunday night!...you would be surprised by how accurate some of the stuff said on here is...as you said all the info is out there it just depends how you use it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2319. Hhunter
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2318. ricderr
grothar
You're way wrong. I think it is stationary and and new low might be forming over the increasing convection

ricderr

I would think it is stationary, however the low might be reforming....

ahem....gro....didn't we say almost the same thing? LMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2311. Grothar:


You're way wrong. I think it is stationary and and new low might be forming over the increasing convection.




Hey, I thought it was moving south into the Pacific ;). man, gonna lose that bet.

Morning Gro. :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2316. LargoFl
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2315. Scotth
Quoting 2303. Dakster:


Do they still put tail numbers on mosquitos in Defuniak?

I'm sure with all the rain you have been having they must be out in DROVES.


As big as the bugs are down here I'm surprised they dont have their own pilots! All this rain is actually a blessing in disguise. They don't have time to come out. Its always raining!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2313. ricderr
How often does one sit and pray a tropical storm forms?


yep.....i would hope that seeing even el paso was belled wath SAL dust....we could also see some moisture from a tropical system
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2312. IKE
A break from the core of the rain

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zP6xPNVB6XY


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2311. Grothar
Quoting 2289. ricderr:
Is 92L moving back into the Yucatan?




I would think it is stationary, however the low might be reforming....might be easier to see if the flaoter was more centered over the increasing convection.....

i could always go to another site and copy and paste what others think...but then i might sound intelligent and that won't happen.....


ok cowboys.....time to shoot this one down too


You're way wrong. I think it is stationary and and new low might be forming over the increasing convection.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Today marks the 44th anniversary of the landfall of Hurricane Camille here on the MS Gulf Coast. I'm thankful still that I only remember parts of it due to my age.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2308. Hhunter
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2307. 62901IL
Quoting 2302. daddyjames:


Actually, those two are forecasted to merge with one another to form a typhoon, with the circulation of TD12 becoming dominant. Should be very fun to watch.

G'morning from central OK. Beautiful here, windows open, unbelievable that I can say that in August in OK.
Sampled breakfast already, blog and otherwise (blog's was much better).

Well, so much for that ULL associated with 92L weakening. Try to stay above the water if you are in the SE Gulf Coast region.

Have a blast, and a wonderful day all.

track maps Say they are supposed to take different paths
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2306. ricderr
I have learn a lot from this blog from trolls wish caster even down caster I think this is the best tropical blog each person brings a different view on the tropics.


i have a real perverse view of this blog....but to start...yes i have learned much, mainly where to look and how to gather information.....but when the rubber meets the road...most of what is said on here is speculation and i would not trust my safety or those that i love with it....what i truly enjoy though...is there are a few young men that posted as weather geek teenagers a few years back that are now persuing their degrees as mets in college...and one made the claim the other day....that the more he learns the worse his forecasts seem to pan out....not only a great lesson in humility...but a great lesson in the amount of respect we should have for the professionals
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2289. ricderr:
Is 92L moving back into the Yucatan?




I would think it is stationary, however the low might be reforming....might be easier to see if the flaoter was more centered over the increasing convection.....

i could always go to another site and copy and paste what others think...but then i might sound intelligent and that won't happen.....


ok cowboys.....time to shoot this one down too


Hmmmmmm, cowboys with hangovers?

I can't figure 92l for nothing. It's frustrating.

How often does one sit and pray a tropical storm forms?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2285. seminolesfan:

cooked oatmeal? ;)


LOL yup
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2303. Dakster
Quoting 2294. Scotth:


Haha Dak! They're probably the 2 pairs we don't need here in defuniak springs, FL.


Do they still put tail numbers on mosquitos in Defuniak?

I'm sure with all the rain you have been having they must be out in DROVES.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2277. Envoirment:
I see we have TD12 and TD13 in the WPAC now. Current tracks indicate they will come very close to each other.





We should definitely see a Fujiwhara Effect between the two of them which will be interesting to watch!




Actually, those two are forecasted to merge with one another to form a typhoon, with the circulation of TD12 becoming dominant. Should be very fun to watch.

G'morning from central OK. Beautiful here, windows open, unbelievable that I can say that in August in OK.
Sampled breakfast already, blog and otherwise (blog's was much better).

Well, so much for that ULL associated with 92L weakening. Try to stay above the water if you are in the SE Gulf Coast region.

Have a blast, and a wonderful day all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well 92-L gets high marks for persistence. I guess the NHC boys keep it at 50/50 for next 120 hrs just in case the barely visible LLC hangs around long enough for the troughing to lift out. Either way,
folks from SE La to Fl Panhandle may need an ark
soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2300. hydrus
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2299. 62901IL
Quoting 2298. MisterPerfect:


Oh, I see. I guess Erin is deciding to take a break from her low-carb diet today.

hahahahaha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2295. ricderr:
what is the feature south of the azores? anything?


cinnamon swirl donut



Oh, I see. I guess Erin is deciding to take a break from her low-carb diet today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2289. ricderr:
Is 92L moving back into the Yucatan?




I would think it is stationary, however the low might be reforming....might be easier to see if the flaoter was more centered over the increasing convection.....

i could always go to another site and copy and paste what others think...but then i might sound intelligent and that won't happen.....


ok cowboys.....time to shoot this one down too


thank you for your diagnosis, Dr. Derr. Do you think the trough to the north will keep 92L in limbo in the gulf and eventually disturb Cuba and the Florida straights?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2296. LargoFl
Flood Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
949 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

FLC035-171545-
/O.NEW.KJAX.FA.W.0023.130817T1349Z-130817T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
FLAGLER FL-
949 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
FLAGLER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PALM COAST...BUNNELL...ANDALUSIA...

* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT

* AT 948 AM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF
STRONG AND SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER FLAGLER COUNTY WITH THE POSSIBLE FLOODING OF ROADSIDE DRAINAGE
DITCHES...DIRT ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE ROADWAYS. THESE STORMS HAVE
ALREADY PRODUCED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY THROUGH 1145 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES.
ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. MAKE THE
SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR ANY UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

&&

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2295. ricderr
what is the feature south of the azores? anything?


cinnamon swirl donut

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2294. Scotth
Quoting 2276. Dakster:


Sure, I'll send over the two mosquitos and roaches you will need.


Haha Dak! They're probably the 2 pairs we don't need here in defuniak springs, FL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2293. DFWjc
Quoting 2285. seminolesfan:

cooked oatmeal? ;)


an irish stew?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What happened to 92L?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2291. 19N81W
have we had a hurricane yet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2341 - 2291

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather