92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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540. jpsb
Quoting 530. Tribucanes:


Hey come on Camille33 was just stating there was good spin associated with 92L, which there is. And he used no !!!!!, which is a huge improvement. No need to be snide.
Lol, I was just agreeing with him. Seriously, I've never seen a naked swirl spin half the GoM before. Maybe I just never noticed and it happens all the time. But it makes me think 92L could be a very big girl (in size) if she gets the chance to grow up.
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We could see the fujiwhara effect in action in the WPAC soon. 98W and 99W both seem like they will interact with each other based on the models and their current close promiximity. It'll be interesting to watch for those interested!



98W is just South East of Taiwan and 99W is just by the southern islands of Japan.

98W



99W

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Quoting 514. Patrap:
That Shrimp is growing.



That shrimp is stirrin' the pot!
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Bust is a season with ten or fewer named storms, for me at least. Chance of that happening this season is 0%.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 520. luvtogolf:


If anyone is calling a season a "bust" on August 16th then they are idiots.

I would love to know what constitutes a "bust"? If we have 15 more storms and none hits land is that a "bust"? What if we have 5 Cat 5 hurricanes that stay out in the Atlantic - is that a "bust"? Or, will this season not be a "bust" unless we have billions of dollars of damage to our shores, death, loss of jobs, loss of homes etc. Will that make this season not a "bust"?
don't reply to it best advice I can give just someone that's trying to get a rise out of the blog
by falling for it means there success
deny them that success and they will disappear like a failing tropical cyclone
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Quoting 520. luvtogolf:


If anyone is calling a season a "bust" on August 16th then they are idiots.

I would love to know what constitutes a "bust"? If we have 15 more storms and none hits land is that a "bust"? What if we have 5 Cat 5 hurricanes that stay out in the Atlantic - is that a "bust"? Or, will this season not be a "bust" unless we have billions of dollars of damage to our shores, death, loss of jobs, loss of homes etc. Will that make this season not a "bust"?


If someone makes a plaster cast of its top third, then it's a bust.
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Who knows what 92L might do?

The Shadow knows.
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Quoting 519. jpsb:
Yes that little naked swirl has got the entire western Gulf of Mexico spinning around it. I don't think I've ever seen any thing like that before. Very impressive.


Hey come on Camille33 was just stating there was good spin associated with 92L, which there is. And he used no !!!!!, which is a huge improvement. No need to be snide.
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529. VR46L
Quoting 516. ezziboo:


Valentino Rossi fan!
Hope this weather doesn't kill Directv reception Sunday...MotoGP Indy!


Sure am !
I think you are the first to get my handle !

Yeah I hope the weather is good but Vale is great in the wet !

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The current organization of 92L makes me wonder if it's going to be stretched out like a lot of the models have been showing. It certainly has a tight, well-organized circulation, not an elongated area of vorticity. Its development chances are certainly increasing and all it would take is a small amount of thunderstorms closer to the center for classification.

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On the last few IR frames, it appears 92L may be trying to develop higher clouds along its lower level banding. Probably won't turn anything into real deep convection though until the ULL is gone. The next few hours will be interesting.
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I think it would be interesting to have 19 TS and 0 Hurricanes this year
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Quoting 517. seer2012:


Looks stalled!


Yepper. Migth get some NNW motion out of it, but generally North I feel.
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92L has thrown it in Neutral to get a Fresca seems.




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Even if it develops it Most likely, it could, but most likely would just be a TD, so still cant call us who said a below the numbers season already busted lol.
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Think the HWRF needs that Tail Doppler Data






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519. jpsb
Quoting 503. Camille33:
92l got a good spin right now
Yes that little naked swirl has got the entire western Gulf of Mexico spinning around it. I don't think I've ever seen any thing like that before. Very impressive.
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Quoting 513. Tropicsweatherpr:


I am a little surprised NHC didn't mentioned it at 2 PM.


I'm not. Lol. It's very much being enhanced by the ITCZ and almost seems stuck in the ITCZ. It needs to separate to have any chance.
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Quoting 509. VR46L:
92L JSL



Looks stalled!
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Quoting 509. VR46L:
92L JSL



Valentino Rossi fan!
Hope this weather doesn't kill Directv reception Sunday...MotoGP Indy!
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Quoting 506. Walshy:


They corrected it.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

CORRECTED TO CHANGE STATUS OF ERIN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ERIN...LOCATED WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
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That Shrimp is growing.


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Quoting 507. MississippiWx:
Area at 45W looks better this afternoon.



I am a little surprised NHC didn't mentioned it at 2 PM.
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BULLETIN 1 PM CDT SATURDAY AUGUST 16, 1969

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE CAMILLE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ON THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST FROM FORT WALTON TO ST. MARKS AND GALE WARNINGS ELSEWHERE FROM PENSACOLA TO CEDAR KEY. PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND 5 TO 10 FOOT TIDES IN THE AREA FROM FORT WALTON TO ST. MARKS SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY TONIGHT.

ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST ARE URGED TO LISTEN FOR LATER RELEASES.

NO INFORMATION HAS BEEN RECEIVED NEAR THE CENTER OF CAMILLE SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER RECON PLANE IS APPROACHING THE STORM AND MORE DETAILS WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AT 1 PM CDT...HURRICANE CAMILLE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST... OR ABOUT 360 SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND IT WAS MOVING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.

CAMILLE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO A MORE NORTHERLY COURSE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED IS LIKELY.

HIGHEST WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 115 MPH NEAR THE CENTER. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN INTENSITY.

SMALL CRAFT FROM PENSACOLA TO CEDAR KEY SHOULD SEEK HARBOR AND SMALL CRAFT ON THE ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTS SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM SHORE.


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509. VR46L
92L JSL

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Im throwing out 3 bold predictions for this season
1: We will see at least 3 CV major hurricanes
2: 1 of them will hit the US as a MH
3: at the end of the season we will be a la nina.

tell me what you think
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Area at 45W looks better this afternoon.

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN
...LOCATED WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF ..
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Quoting 488. SuperStorm093:
oh ok, a 35mph TD makes this season so far not a bust. I hear you.


Beneficial rains for areas that need it (Tex-Mex) without the associated destruction? All good in my book, and far from qualifying as a bust.
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NHC discussion not very helpful. If it does this, then one thing. If it does that, then another.

2:00pm TWO sponsored by the Mt Holly NWS.
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92l got a good spin right now
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Quoting 471. SuperStorm093:
Well whats going on? Guys were making fun of the people who called bust yesterday, we had about a 10 hour TS storm that just dissipated pretty much and 92L that has nothing going for it right now.


Nothing going for it? Coming together, and will continue to slowly; good chance this'll be a TD by this time tomorrow. Maybe try reading what Jeff had to say and Drakoen added earlier about the ULL's affects on 92L. To say it has nothing going for it is far off. ULL will be lessening it's affect on 92L, low shear, great SST's, and plenty of time to spin up. Going to, in all likelihood make it to the sixth named storm of the year. Erin and 92L might not be life changing hurricanes, but they are harbingers to an above average season. I know 92L is taking it's sweet time and after Chantal and Dorian patience is wearing thin for these weak and persistent storms that fizzle.
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500. Skyepony (Mod)
More damage reports from the wave train over Africa. Oman is on the far east side of the African wave train..


Extreme Weather in Oman on Friday, 16 August, 2013 at 15:32 (03:32 PM) UTC.
Description
The Wilayat of Mahout in the Governorate of Al Wusta yesterday witnessed a sandstorm mixed with heavy rain. Due to strong winds and poor visibility caused by the dust blanket, traffic came to a standstill on the road leading to the wilayat. In the Wilayat of Al Mudhaibi, in Al Sharqiyah North Governorate the recent rains caused ponds in front of houses and shops in the centre of the wilayat. In the Wilayat of Ibri, authorities had to close the Faj al Kham road for repairs after the damage caused by rocks falling during the recent rains. The 12 km Faj al Kham, which cuts through a stretch of high mountains, leads to the roundabout of Ibri referral Hospital. The company in charge is working on a 400-metre long, 6-metre high section of the road. The repairs will be completed after two weeks. Elsewhere in the country, regional municipalities are conducting maintenance and repairs to restore normalcy. In the Wilayat of Al Awabi, South Batinah Governorate, the municipality is removing debris formed by fallen trees, stones and dust and sand formations brought into the wilayat’s roads by flooded wadis. In the Wilayat of Qurayat, a working camp was organised to remove trees from around Falaj Addar area where a 230-metre long basin was formed during the recent rains.
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Quoting 478. calkevin77:


Out here we just have the slogan "Keep Austin Weird". I live in Pflugerville just north of Austin and South of Round Rock so our slogan is "Between a rock and a weird place". Not nearly as refined sounding as Piedmont lol.

So you live in the land of dry lakes. My brother lives there but he is one of the good guys amidst a sea of weird.You sure do need some rain and soon.
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Quoting 458. Drakoen:
As the upper level low continues to move to the southwest models forecast for it to degenerate as vorticity values decrease. This should allow 92L to have a shot an organizing some convection. The fact that the upper level low is moving southwest while the low level center is stationary will help bring convection closer to the center of the storm.


G' afternoon from Central OK. Some storms moved through last night - bringing, yet again, more rain. Here we are at or well above what we would expect for the year. And there is talk of this potentially becoming one of the wettest years ever. Thank goodness I live on high ground :D

Thanks, Drak - was gonna note that the ULL appeared to be weakening - which would aid in drawing moisture into 92L. Interesting little system 92L has been, causing all the mets and models many headaches. Where it ultimately goes (Mex-Tex or Cajun country) depends on how well and fast it can incorporate the moisture in the upper levels headed its way.

Erin has been walloped, and that huge wave about to emerge from the African coast looks as if it will take its sweet time to get anything going.

As for the 50W wave, we'll see what effect Erin may have on it.

Have a blast.

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Quoting 470. SouthernIllinois:

Yup. It's amazing how names will vary geographically from one region to another!


Yeah. When you said Little Eygpt, I actually thought(briefly) that you was in northwest Africa. xD
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496. Skyepony (Mod)
Two notable volcano eruptions today.. One in Guatemala the other in Alaska.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 120 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT IF THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK...HOWEVER...IT
WOULD MOVE INTO A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED
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Quoting 488. SuperStorm093:
oh ok, a 35mph TD makes this season so far not a bust. I hear you.


This could be anywhere from a TD to a moderate to strong Tropical Storm. No one knows yet. There's no need to talk like that.
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HWRF now Mexico


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492. flsky
Quoting 413. opal92nwf:


Whose map is this?
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491. VR46L
Quoting 485. SouthernIllinois:

We'll just post Modis images of the Arctic and China and point out ship chemtrails instead. ;)


LMAO !

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather