92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 491 - 441

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

491. VR46L
Quoting 485. SouthernIllinois:

We'll just post Modis images of the Arctic and China and point out ship chemtrails instead. ;)


LMAO !

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 120 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT IF THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK...HOWEVER...IT
WOULD MOVE INTO A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
489. Skyepony (Mod)
ASCAT couldn't have missed 92L anymore that pass.

Fresh OSCAT of Erin..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 483. RascalNag:


Actually 92L has a few things going for it. It has a well established surface circulation, low shear environment, warm waters, and enough moisture to develop it. Once the ULL weakens some more, I think it'll be good to go.
oh ok, a 35mph TD makes this season so far not a bust. I hear you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 484. PrivateIdaho:
...or Parish.


Yes ... in LA. Good point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 477. VR46L:


It won't be long till the seeding conspiracy theorists are out ...


Never turn your back on a seeding Seed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 475. Rmadillo:
I think the Matagorda Bay area of the TX coast, on southward is in the clear.

Really, as I have said before, I think somewhere between Houma, LA and Mobile, AL is likely. Give or take a county.

...or Parish.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 471. SuperStorm093:
Well whats going on? Guys were making fun of the people who called bust yesterday, we had about a 10 hour TS storm that just dissipated pretty much and 92L that has nothing going for it right now.


Actually 92L has a few things going for it. It has a well established surface circulation, low shear environment, warm waters, and enough moisture to develop it. Once the ULL weakens some more, I think it'll be good to go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
482. flsky
Quoting 432. Rmadillo:
Much like a famous storm from 1995, 92L is just sitting in place in the BOC, just off the NW tip of the Yucutan. Slightly NW of the 21N/91W vertex.




OK, I'll bite. Which storm are you showing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1148 am EDT Fri Aug 16 2013

Long term [sunday night through thursday]...
the wet weather pattern will remain in place into early next week
with a deep feed of tropical moisture energized by a nearly
stationary upper trough centered over the lower Mississippi
Valley. By Tuesday, the upper trough is forecast to weaken with
the subtropical ridge building back into the southeastern states.
This should return the region to more climatological diurnal
convection with normal mid August temperatures.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 477. VR46L:


It won't be long till the seeding conspiracy theorists are out ...


Seeding, tunneling, etc. help lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 466. SPLbeater:


Sorta like the southeastern region of the NC piedmont can also be called the sandhills, which I am part of. I growed up on that term, never heared the word piedmont till I was about 10.


Out here we just have the slogan "Keep Austin Weird". I live in Pflugerville just north of Austin and South of Round Rock so our slogan is "Between a rock and a weird place". Not nearly as refined sounding as Piedmont lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
477. VR46L
Quoting 465. opal92nwf:

It's still definitely a seed.


It won't be long till the seeding conspiracy theorists are out ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 471. SuperStorm093:
Well whats going on? Guys were making fun of the people who called bust yesterday, we had about a 10 hour TS storm that just dissipated pretty much and 92L that has nothing going for it right now.
Do I have to remind you that it's August... peak of season isn't until mid-September and I promise you things will be different a week from now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think the Matagorda Bay area of the TX coast, on southward is in the clear.

Really, as I have said before, I think somewhere between Houma, LA and Mobile, AL is likely. Give or take a county.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 439. weathermanwannabe:
Interesting to note, again looking at the most recent hi-vis loops on 92L, that there are a few competing circulations going on at the moment.

You have the clearly marked naked swirl almost due just West of the Yucatan Peninsula and a smaller but discernible vortex due just North of the Yucatan that is closer to some of the deeper convection. That naked swirl might be the system kicking out the weaker circulation and trying to reestablish one closer to the convective bursts.

You can see both on this regular vis loop:

Link

Will be interesting to see which one wins out and where NHC will mark the coc when a TD is declared.


SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1050 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 21N91W IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TO NEAR 21N93W EARLY SAT MORNING...NEAR 21N93W EARLY SUN MORNING...
THEN NEAR 22N95W BY EARLY MON MORNING. THE LOW WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD IF IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. A RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE MAINLY THE EASTERN GULF.


Based on Dr. M's post (92L on the west coast of the Yucatan), and on the coordinates given of 21N91W in the GOM Synopsis, I thought 92L is centered on the 'naked swirl' you've described? Are you saying components of 92L is 'at war' w/ itself? Sorry for the lack of proper meteorological terminology...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon all! TGIF...

Erin is pretty much done. 92L has a nice spin, awaiting for some convection around that nice LLC. Hopefully TX and SW LA will get nothing more than some very decent rains from it.

I am interested in that low down near 11N 45W this afternoon. Convection is decent and shear is low. SSTs are warm there as well, and seems to be protected for the most part from the dry air to the N and NW. I wonder what the chances of it becoming something are?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well whats going on? Guys were making fun of the people who called bust yesterday, we had about a 10 hour TS storm that just dissipated pretty much and 92L that has nothing going for it right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 464. panamasteve:


Opal was life changer for me here in PCB. Matter of fact, the feral cat I rescued right after Opal is sitting in my lap. He'll be 18 yrs. old in October...

I believe Opal was the Fort Walton Beach area's worst hurricane in recent history. More of a direct hit than Ivan.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Never turn your back on a West African Seed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Let it rain
Let it pour down on me..

Still wanting more rain in SW Louisiana:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 445. SouthernIllinois:

Oh that's just another nickname for us Folks down here in the Southern third of the state. Link




Sorta like the southeastern region of the NC piedmont can also be called the sandhills, which I am part of. I growed up on that term, never heared the word piedmont till I was about 10.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 459. VR46L:


Not Surprised . It was big yesterday but lacked Precipitation and height

Yep its Fizzling .. Might lift the ITCZ a little though


It's still definitely a seed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 432. Rmadillo:
Much like a famous storm from 1995, 92L is just sitting in place in the BOC, just off the NW tip of the Yucutan. Slightly NW of the 21N/91W vertex.





Opal was life changer for me here in PCB. Matter of fact, the feral cat I rescued right after Opal is sitting in my lap. He'll be 18 yrs. old in October...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And here is the current location of the slightly amplified (since yesterday) Tutt/Ull cell over/near the Yucatan that is feeding the baroclinic convection on the Eastern side of the circulation.

Link


Conditions for consolidation of the circulation should improve over the next 24-48 hours as the wave moves Westward away from the Tutt cell as noted by Dr. M and NHC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Goodbye Erin. Well, 5 tropical storms, what's next?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 458. Drakoen:
As the upper level low continues to move to the southwest models forecast for it to degenerate as vorticity values decrease. This should allow 92L to have a shot an organizing some convection. The fact that the upper level low is moving southwest while the low level center is stationary will help bring convection closer to the center of the storm.


THANK GOD I am not the only one to point this out.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
459. VR46L
Quoting 453. SuperStorm093:
Lol that huge blob over Arica just fizzled.


Not Surprised . It was big yesterday but lacked Precipitation and height

Yep its Fizzling .. Might lift the ITCZ a little though

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As the upper level low continues to move to the southwest models forecast for it to degenerate as vorticity values decrease. This should allow 92L to have a shot an organizing some convection. The fact that the upper level low is moving southwest while the low level center is stationary will help bring convection closer to the center of the storm.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 449. opal92nwf:
Nice animation, broad rotation about to exit off the coast. May take awhile to get something going because of its size.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 452. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The pattern will break eventually it's just a matter of time. If climate can change, so can the weather, that's how I look at things. Just don't let your guard down. And be happy the GFS is showing something good for once. :P
remember when isaac was a wave GFS had him east of bermuda. lets get some consistency on a storm forming. lets hope its not another fish :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 454. jpsb:
If I am "reading" your image correctly (nice graphic btw) then 92L is going to be rather large in size should 92L continue to develop.


I just feel like, for TRACK, something along the lines of Opal is likely. Or on the western side, Cindy from 2005.

Or quite possibly nothing like that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
454. jpsb
Quoting 432. Rmadillo:
Much like a famous storm from 1995, 92L is just sitting in place in the BOC, just off the NW tip of the Yucutan. Slightly NW of the 21N/91W vertex.

If I am "reading" your image correctly (nice graphic btw) then 92L is going to be rather large in size should 92L continue to develop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lol that huge blob over Arica just fizzled.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 448. wunderweatherman123:
we have had that track the past 4 seasons! enough, canada always steals the good stuff :), 384 hours out its fantasy land, next run maybe it will hit florida :D
The pattern will break eventually it's just a matter of time. If climate can change, so can the weather, that's how I look at things. Just don't let your guard down. And be happy the GFS is showing something good for once. :P
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Be glad you're not in big Egypt right now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 445. SouthernIllinois:

Oh that's just another nickname for us Folks down here in the Southern third of the state. Link



Very cool. I learn something new every day. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 442. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Not to sure about fish as folks in the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes would need to watch out if a track like that were to pan out. Still though that is fantasy land we are talking about. And we should know the drill by now. Next run will probably drop development all together or come in weaker. ;)
we have had that track the past 4 seasons! enough, canada always steals the good stuff :), 384 hours out its fantasy land, next run maybe it will hit florida :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I saw two spin on land on Africa!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 434. CybrTeddy:


Seems unrealistic given how weak and small Erin.
Maybe it is picking up development of the AOI now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
It's August, but it feel like October or November in Asheville. Only up to 67 degrees today and I almost worn my jacket. I was told winter comes in quickly somewhere between late-September to early November so I better get in clothes shopping!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 428. jpsb:
Bad news, very bad news. :( I was hoping for lots of fish storms.


From your lips to God's ears; however, mother nature has other ideas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 435. wunderweatherman123:
well i see the 12z GFS shows a fish storm... pretty boring
Not to sure about fish as folks in the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes would need to watch out if a track like that were to pan out. Still though that is fantasy land we are talking about. And we should know the drill by now. Next run will probably drop development all together or come in weaker. ;)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 427. SouthernIllinois:
Checking in from Little Egypt and all I call say is how lovely it is this Friday afternoon. Some high wispy cirrus clouds sweeping by and temperatures climbing through the 70's with very light northeast winds. A LOVELY day.

Natalie


Hey. What is Little Egypt?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 491 - 441

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather