92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting 377. Relix:


Well, welcome to the "Support the Cute Lil Wave" club that Kman, me and Wunderkidcayman have :P!
What about me? I been doing the ( Tropical cyclone come here baby dance) for days.
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I live in Corpus Christi, what are the chances we get some rain from 92L?
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Quoting 382. MiamiHurricanes09:
So have we all given up on Erin and 92L? LOL.


Erin will probably die, yes. But it was never meant to do much. It's main purpose will be getting rid of some of the SAL. 92L on the other hand still has a story to tell.
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Quoting 382. MiamiHurricanes09:
So have we all given up on Erin and 92L? LOL.


Who?
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Quoting 379. CybrTeddy:
GFS shows a powerful hurricane developing as the result of the African wave currently moving off Africa. However it doesn't develop it until about 240 hours out, so it stays weak and may be more of a threat to land.
Yep and the trend in that model has been to keep the ridge in the Atlantic a bit stronger each run, until at 276 hrs. when a ridge builds in over the East Coast.
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Quoting cg2916:
What would happen if the ULL merged with the LLC?

An upper level low has to translate down to the surface in order to have a low level circulation, so you can't have one without the other.
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Quoting 365. GetReal:






Interesting and something that you do not observe very often, the ULL is sliding SW towards the nearly stationary LLC of 92L. IMO there is a good chance to these two merge and align together.

was wondering if that was possible because it sure looks that way...
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There we go and in the short range lolol.
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Quoting 295. L1990:
SWLA is in the room apparently lol


LOL!!! Yep!! :)
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So have we all given up on Erin and 92L? LOL.
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Quoting 289. swlacanemom:


Good to see ya on here!!!!


Good to see you too!!! :)
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GFS shows a powerful hurricane developing as the result of the African wave currently moving off Africa. However it doesn't develop it until about 240 hours out, so it stays weak and may be more of a threat to land.
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Quoting 376. cg2916:
What would happen if the ULL merged with the LLC?


The ULL is actually weakening as it progresses ... in the upper levels it is better to have an anti-cyclone to purge the rising air from the center of the system.
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377. Relix
Quoting 373. RyanSperrey:

If you're talking about the little wave ahead and south of Erin, I've been calling it "The Little Wave That Could" for 3 days now XD

No one believed me 3 days ago though :( not that I can blame anyone, there were no obvious signs, i was just working off a hunch.


Well, welcome to the "Support the Cute Lil Wave" club that Kman, me and Wunderkidcayman have :P!
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What would happen if the ULL merged with the LLC?
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365 ...

Exactly.
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Whew!

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Quoting 368. Relix:
Darn that dry air is kicking my adopted lil wave at 50W ahrd. Its turning, and it looks much better than yesterday. I have hopes for it... i hope NHC paints it in Yellow at 2PM. Its definitely trying something.
If you're talking about the little wave ahead and south of Erin, I've been calling it "The Little Wave That Could" for 3 days now XD

No one believed me 3 days ago though :( not that I can blame anyone, there were no obvious signs, i was just working off a hunch.
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Quoting 338. DavidHOUTX:



Aahhh, so that's how they do it! Makes perfect sense! Somehow, I always knew the folks at the NHC were having way too much fun looking at swirls all day. ;P
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Quoting 361. CosmicEvents:
Is this a trick question?
.
.
.


I would have said Emily, when she was south of Hispaniola. She had two impressive balls of convection, but displaced from the CoC, so it never amounted to much.

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Well there you go, your two ridges, well they bridge.

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368. Relix
Darn that dry air is kicking my adopted lil wave at 50W ahrd. Its turning, and it looks much better than yesterday. I have hopes for it... i hope NHC paints it in Yellow at 2PM. Its definitely trying something.
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Good Morning Class
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Quoting 354. fireflymom:
But they don't update.
Quoting 315. Walshy:
Nike Weatherman Pack Release Date is Official



Link



Maybe StormW could be the spokesperson.
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Interesting and something that you do not observe very often, the ULL is sliding SW towards the nearly stationary LLC of 92L. IMO there is a good chance to these two merge and align together.

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Not much to see now, but note the convection in the last frame or two to the N of the LLC for 92L ... wrapping that moisture around from the NE.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
EASTERN RUNNELS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL CONCHO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL COLEMAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL NOON CDT

* AT 1005 AM CDT THE PUBLIC REPORTED STREET FLOOD IN WINTERS.

* IMPACTS FROM THIS MODERATE RAINFALL WILL INCLUDE:
FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADS AND INTERSECTIONS.
FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AVOID THESE AREAS.
RAPID RISE OF AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND ARROYOS.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
WINTERS...BALLINGER...VALERA...TALPA...HATCHEL... GLEN COVE...WINTERS
LITTLE ELM LAKE...HORDS CREEK RESERVOIR...US-83 NEAR THE
CONCHO-RUNNELS COUNTY LINE...THE INTERSECTION OF US-83 AND RANCH ROAD
1929...

THIS INCLUDES THE LOW WATER CROSSINGS...
FM 1929 CROSSING FUZZY CREEK...
CROSSINGS ALONG COUNTY ROAD 128...
COUNTY ROAD 120 CROSSING LONG BRANCH...
CROSSINGS ALONG COUNTY ROAD 157...
COUNTY ROAD 135 CROSSING MIDDLE MUSTANG CREEK...
AND OTHER LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE PORTIONS OF RUNNELS...COLEMAN AND
CONCHO COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED OR PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3173 9935 3149 9997 3196 10002 3206 9973

$$
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Quoting 306. mikatnight:


Which year had the biggest bust? Oh wait, nevermind.
Is this a trick question?
.
.
.
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Good spin, but dry air is in front of it.

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Quoting 341. TideWaterWeather:


The sst's are plenty warm there, it just shows reduced OHC because of the shallow depth of the water along the coast. 92L could not take advantage off deeper warm water anyway because of it's lack of development. My point is, water temp is not an issue for 92L. OHC plays a much larger role in developed storms (think CAT 2+) that can upwell cooler water because of the violent dynamics near the oceans surface and with developed systems which move very slow.



Good answer, Tide. The Loop Current and the warm eddys around the GoM show up well, too, on altimetry (post #337).
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everyone here,that Mid Atlantic Wave is the wave off of Africa.
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Quoting 349. hydrus:
1914. One T.S. thats it..There may have been more of course.
Oh I sit corrected :o) thanks Hydrus :o) I did not go back far enough.... I thought there other years with less storms but was not sure....

Thanks Again
Taco :o)
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This could be the read deal here. Very large spin with this wave and very large moisture plume associated with what looks like a TS.


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But they don't update.
Quoting 315. Walshy:
Nike Weatherman Pack Release Date is Official



Link

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Quoting 344. taco2me61:

I think the biggest bust for a season would be 1930.

3 storms total 2 hurricanes and only tropical storm force winds in CONUS that year :o)

Taco :o)
1914. One T.S. thats it..There may have been more of course.
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Quoting 338. DavidHOUTX:

Now I understand :)
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Quoting 337. moonlightcowboy:
As the warmer and deeper waters of the GoM eddys go, 92L is in a rather cool spot so-to-speak currently; however, if model track play out, it could be traversing over a considerably warm eddy just away to its wnw, and could help with intensity.



Between this and Largo's Post #329, I now understand better. Thanks, guys!
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The SHIPS better stay away from 92L!
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GFS still pulls 92L north.
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Quoting 306. mikatnight:


Which year had the biggest bust? Oh wait, nevermind.

I think the biggest bust for a season would be 1930.

3 storms total 2 hurricanes and only tropical storm force winds in CONUS that year :o)

Taco :o)
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Quoting 338. DavidHOUTX:


LOL.... now this speaks more my language!
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A broad low in the Central Atlantic taking its time to get going these are ones you have to watch out for. Last run it had it going towards the Northern Leeward Islands, let's see what this run will bring.

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Quoting 327. TXCWC:


Map I was just looking at showed the invest low still over very low OHC but getting close to higher OHC. Click on OHC tap once on linked map pg from Wisconsin University.

Link


The sst's are plenty warm there, it just shows reduced OHC because of the shallow depth of the water along the coast. 92L could not take advantage off deeper warm water anyway because of it's lack of development. My point is, water temp is not an issue for 92L. OHC plays a much larger role in developed storms (think CAT 2+) that can upwell cooler water because of the violent dynamics near the oceans surface and with developed systems which move very slow.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather