92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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wasn't charley at 10% at one point?..and look what he did once conditions changed
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


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Wind shear will not be and inhibiting factor for 92L in the next 24 to 48 hours. It is heading W into very warm waters and low wind shear.
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Quoting 133. L1990:
im just wondering if theres something we dont know that the higher ups do because the system 92l is pathetic at the momment which leaves me to wonder why people are being evacuated from the gulf at this point... maybe its just a precaution because we all know in august (katrina) storms can go from nothing to hurricane status in a matter of twelve hours or so...
well flooding might get to be an issue later on,and perhaps they are being safe minded,also they are telling folks to listen to local alerts etc...no one really is 100% sure what this tropical low is going to do or where it is going right now.
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Quoting 125. RitaEvac:


Need ol' timers back like Neil Frank, he would of said the is something that everybody needs to watch regardless of what models are showing
my take with the models is if it shows nothing watch for a monster if it shows a monster watch it be nothing
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Quoting 129. weathermanwannabe:
Another post of link for an African satt image. The apparent wave, behind the one about to splashdown in the Atlantic has the right "look", but is appears to be an upper air feature as opposed to a lower level feature:

Link

The splashdown wave looks very healthy but we have to wait for the full transition just past the Cape Verde islands to see what happens with this one.


The cimss wind products suggest the circulation is lower to mid level in conjunction with an 850mb vorticity maximum. Very healthy circulation around 5W.

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Quoting 70. Joanie38:


Good Morning, Louisiana never gets mentioned..lol...I am in SWLA, who knows what will happen.


I'm in SWLA also.....we could use some rain.
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yes this about says it all for texas/la............stay alert....... A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS EXPECTED
TO ADVANCE INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF AND CONTINUE A SLOW WEST TO
NORTHWEST TRACK. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS FEATURE TO
TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR
THE LATEST OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS
SYSTEM.
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133. L1990
im just wondering if theres something we dont know that the higher ups do because the system 92l is pathetic at the momment which leaves me to wonder why people are being evacuated from the gulf at this point... maybe its just a precaution because we all know in august (katrina) storms can go from nothing to hurricane status in a matter of twelve hours or so...
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Quoting 85. RitaEvac:


They don't have a clue, TX was guaranteed to have NO AFFECTS from this all the way up to now this morning even, and now MX and TX could see an impact by Sunday night?? makes no sense


no one on my local news has guranteed anything, "guarantee" is a strange word to use anyway when weather is concerned. We were told told to keep an eye on it this morning in Corpus.
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Quoting 104. wunderweatherman123:
0z GFS shows the potential wave train. hurricane after hurricane once we get past august 20th. similar to 2010


Agreed. Other than a Cat 2 Hurricane Alex, we're at the same level of activity at this point in the season as 2010.
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Quoting 122. TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL STORM PEWA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012013
1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 173.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 15SE 15SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 173.5W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 173.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 10.8N 175.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 11.4N 177.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.2N 179.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.0N 177.8E
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.0N 172.5E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 17.0N 167.0E
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 19.0N 162.0E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 173.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
Finally a storm that develops in the Central pacific ocean,has been 3 years since the last one.
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Another post of link for an African satt image. The apparent wave, behind the one about to splashdown in the Atlantic has the right "look", but is appears to be an upper air feature as opposed to a lower level feature:

Link

The splashdown wave looks very healthy but we have to wait for the full transition just past the Cape Verde islands to see what happens with this one.
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Don't be shocked by 92L ...

Sharpen those axes!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
TD Erin

GFDL Ensembles..
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Quoting 103. Tropicsweatherpr:
Well defined circulation in West Africa.

and it seems at a much lower latitude than Erin!!!
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Quoting 114. setxjeff:


Agreed, RitaEvac. Our local met, Bostwick, has insisted that there will be no affects here.


Need ol' timers back like Neil Frank, he would of said this is something that everybody needs to watch regardless of what models are showing
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This is from Lake Charles NWS :

A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS EXPECTED
TO ADVANCE INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF AND CONTINUE A SLOW WEST TO
NORTHWEST TRACK. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS FEATURE TO
TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR
THE LATEST OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS
SYSTEM.
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Quoting 89. DavidHOUTX:


That's the GOM for ya. Fact of the matter is, I still don't think anyone really knows where it will end up. Could end up in LA or it could go due west into Mexico..We will know a day ahead of time lol. Unless it rapidly intensifies out of the blue.


Exactly. Its anyone's guess. It looks like you can see some banding around the COC in the latest satellite view and like most storms the upper right quadrant is where the moisture is. For all we know this thing could make landfall in Tampico and cause flooding in NOLA. As far as TX goes this is the first real potential of anything happening since Hermine...which two days earlier the forecast was for warm and sunny days and 48 hours later we got 16 inches of rain. ahh weather and its persnickety dynamics.
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TROPICAL STORM PEWA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012013
1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 173.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 15SE 15SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 173.5W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 173.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 10.8N 175.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 11.4N 177.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.2N 179.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.0N 177.8E
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.0N 172.5E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 17.0N 167.0E
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 19.0N 162.0E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 173.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
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121. SLU
Quoting 113. stoormfury:
ok then. there is still a lot of real estate between the islands and the disturbance for it to consolidate


Yes it needs to be watched. Any cluster of thunderstorms over warm water in August must be taken seriously.
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Quoting 116. Patrap:
It looks like all systems go.
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Quoting 112. seer2012:

I'll re-state my previous question:" Is that a separate coc from the wave that is leading the train?"


Is not clear if there are two different features but we will find out when it hits the water and see how it looks.
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Interesting areas over Africa poised emerge with the potential for development.

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Quoting 85. RitaEvac:


They don't have a clue, TX was guaranteed to have NO AFFECTS from this all the way up to now this morning even, and now MX and TX could see an impact by Sunday night?? makes no sense


Agreed, RitaEvac. Our local met, Bostwick, has insisted that there will be no affects here.
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ok then. there is still a lot of real estate between the islands and the disturbance for it to consolidate
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Quoting 103. Tropicsweatherpr:
Well defined circulation in West Africa.


I'll re-state my previous question:" Is that a separate coc from the wave that is leading the train?"
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Quoting 101. Drakoen:
92L now has the surface circulation but thunderstorms are far removed from the center due to the upper level low.
Heading into an enviroment that will promote more thunderstorms and less shear. I look for a TD in 24 to 36 hours.
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110. L1990
Quoting 83. hurricanehanna:

Hey Joanie, don't you know by now New Orleans represents all of S La ? lol



in swla myself at the momment ... the wind is blowing 5mph we need to leave noww!!!
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109. VR46L
Quoting 88. flcanes:

But the wave in front, hmm...


I know what ya mean its in a sweet place moisture wise, shear is not terrible at the moment ..

Central Atlantic - Funktop Color Infrared Loop
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Amazing photo from Jason Ahrns on spaceweather.com (with more informations, photos and links)

COLORFUL SPRITES OVER NEBRASKA: "August 12th was another successful night in our sprites campaign," reports Jason Ahrns of the University of Alaska Fairbanks. With a team of researchers from NCAR, he has been flying over the midwestern USA onboard a Gulfstream V in search of exotic forms of lightning. As they were photographing a thunderstorm over Nebraska, these six sprites appeared:



High speed video of the sprites is here on flickr.
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Quoting 101. Drakoen:
92L now has the surface circulation but thunderstorms are far removed from the center due to the upper level low.
Irony didn`t have the former a couple of days back and now that it have it has not convection.figures.
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..and everything north of I-10, Yankee-land.


Quoting louisianaboy444:
Lol no mention of Louisiana, the region that could get the most weather from this system on the east side. Everything west of New Orleans is considered Texas :)
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Quoting 85. RitaEvac:


They don't have a clue, TX was guaranteed to have NO AFFECTS from this all the way up to now this morning even, and now MX and TX could see an impact by Sunday night?? makes no sense


Rita, you are right it makes no sense at all, but this is why it always changes, I just take it day by day. 92L may come of nothing but rain rain rain.
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0z GFS shows the potential wave train. hurricane after hurricane once we get past august 20th. similar to 2010
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Well defined circulation in West Africa.

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gee from today thru Monday..over same area's.........
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92L now has the surface circulation but thunderstorms are far removed from the center due to the upper level low.
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Quoting 56. Relix:
I am rooting for Pouch 20. I think Wunderkidcayman, me, and kman are the only ones rooting for it :P. Its so cute haha

Lol

From last blog

92L is now stationary and also lower cloud deck is building
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Quoting 98. weatherman994:
Does the CATL disturbance have any chance of developement.


Maybe down the road.
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Does the CATL disturbance have any chance of developement.
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Quoting 83. hurricanehanna:

Hey Joanie, don't you know by now New Orleans represents all of S La ? lol



LOL HI Hanna!! Well, yeah, sort of....LOL..I kinda thought Lake Charles represents SWLA....:)
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The clouds seem to be thickening over 92L, but no convection yet.
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95. SLU
Quoting 90. stoormfury:
SLU what is your take on the CATL disturbance


It looks great but the circulation is very elongated east-west.
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Outstanding synopsis Dr. on the two pending systems; perhaps Texas will get some drought relief to some needed areas if a TS does make landfall there bringing some beneficial rain inland to the parched regions; they definately need more rain that the Northern Gulf coasts and SE US.

A re-post of my earlier Blog comment on GW and tropical systems:

2482. ihave27windows 9:52 AM EDT on August 16, 2013

Not disagreeing with your comment; just adding my own as a "older" blogger as well. Traditionally hurricane climatology (in the modern era after the 1960's after the initial advent of satellites, computer modelling, and other science such as earth core sampling, etc) has pretty much confirmed the issue of hurricane frequency issues based on Enso cycles and large scale global circulations and ocsillations such as NAO, etc., and we have been able to track and correlate these seasonal variables, in terms of general hurricane numbers, through Enso Neutral, La Nina, and El Nino episodes; basically confirming the natural Earth cycles related to tropical storms.

The GW debate, based on scientific observation (whether for warming or against warming), is a relatively new phenomenon and heavily contested debate issue of the last 25 years.

It will take decades of more observation, both as to tropical storm issues as well as GW issues, to determine if a correlation can be made between GW issues and impacts on world wide tropical storm activity.

Basically, the jury is still out; if we see another solid decade or two of more tropical storms and less major hurricanes, or less tropical storms and more hurricanes, or less overall storms and a few maga-canes every year, then we will still have to figure out the "whys". Recent years have seen an overall increase in Atlantic storms every year, but part of that is the satellite age identifying "fish" storms that we would have not otherwise detected.

Point is that these are all very long term issues, yet to be determined over time, and probably by Dr. Gray and company still hold fast to their position (over the past several years) that they cannot make a connection at this point that GW issues have any discernible impact on Atlantic hurricane seasons.
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92L may have a tough time refiring if this is the case:



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91. SLU
You know the NHC has no clue about the future intensity of a storm when they keep the max wind speeds constant through 120hrs.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 16.9N 32.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 17.9N 34.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 19.1N 36.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 19.9N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 20.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 21.1N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 23.5N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 25.5N 52.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather