92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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91. SLU
You know the NHC has no clue about the future intensity of a storm when they keep the max wind speeds constant through 120hrs.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 16.9N 32.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 17.9N 34.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 19.1N 36.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 19.9N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 20.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 21.1N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 23.5N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 25.5N 52.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
SLU what is your take on the CATL disturbance
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Quoting 85. RitaEvac:


They don't have a clue, TX was guaranteed to have NO AFFECTS from this all the way up to now this morning even, and now MX and TX could see an impact by Sunday night?? makes no sense


That's the GOM for ya. Fact of the matter is, I still don't think anyone really knows where it will end up. Could end up in LA or it could go due west into Mexico..We will know a day ahead of time lol. Unless it rapidly intensifies out of the blue.
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Quoting 78. VR46L:


Naw Largo Erin is nearly at checkmate already .. facing horrible conditions ..

But the wave in front, hmm...
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NATURE COAST AND
INTERIOR PENINSULA. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH.

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Quoting 78. VR46L:


Naw Largo Erin is nearly at checkmate already .. facing horrible conditions ..
good..we don't need it in the gulf.
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Quoting 70. Joanie38:


Good Morning, Louisiana never gets mentioned..lol...I am in SWLA, who knows what will happen.


They don't have a clue, TX was guaranteed to have NO AFFECTS from this all the way up to now this morning even, and now MX and TX could see an impact by Sunday night?? makes no sense
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Quoting 72. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


should begin refire soon over coc
great shot there keeper!,folks need to stay alert
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Quoting 70. Joanie38:


Good Morning, Louisiana never gets mentioned..lol...I am in SWLA, who knows what will happen.

Hey Joanie, don't you know by now New Orleans represents all of S La ? lol
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Don't ya just love these slow, dead seasons?? LOL!
(facetious flag)
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12Z NAM still in the same place for what its worth. Texas/Louisiana border with Louisiana and Mississippi getting walloped with heavy rain



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Quoting 57. RitaEvac:
I don't believe I've ever seen an ULL move directly over a LLC,

Ditto..I dont believe this is going to Mexico. However 92L is heading into an enviroment, in the same direction as Mexico, that is favorable for developement. Any where from SW La. to the Al/FL line need to keep a close eye on this one.
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12Z NAM at 60 hours
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Quoting 67. LargoFl:
so IF erin stays weaker..he is more likely to keep heading westward and if he regains strength he gets pulled more NW?...we surely don't need him in the gulf next weekend.


Naw Largo Erin is nearly at checkmate already .. facing horrible conditions ..
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Quoting 27. Grothar:


Moisture from South America is being fed into the Carribean.



By the time it reaches the Carribean, it looks like it'll have a moist, low shear environment to work with.
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Just want to say thank you to Wunderground for the free app, "Wundermap". It works really well on my iPhone5. I was able to delete two other apps (My Radar & AccuWx) that I no longer need.

Thanks again.
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Quoting 69. calkevin77:


Things are definitely starting to wake up throughout the ATL. I think within three to five days we will be seeing all sorts of blobjiwhara going on.

perhaps blobmania, or blobmageddon
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Quoting 63. Tomsk123:
I think its curious how different departments of the NWS classify storms. 01c in central pacific looks like a full fledged tropical storm and the central pacific hurricane center hasn't classified it yet even as its looked quite good in the last 24 hours. Here in the Atlantic, the NHS are quite the opposite, I think they classify storms far too quickly and it looks like Erin is another example.


Erin has a closed LLC and sustained deep convection. There was no reason not to name it.
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Quoting 45. ncstorm:


WOW!!


Was that shot shockingly beautiful or what?
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should begin refire soon over coc
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So, how i said a few days ago, this is a "no hurricane year" in the Atlantic.
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Quoting 48. louisianaboy444:
Lol no mention of Louisiana, the region that could get the most weather from this system on the east side. Everything west of New Orleans is considered Texas :)


Good Morning, Louisiana never gets mentioned..lol...I am in SWLA, who knows what will happen.
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Quoting 62. EyEtoEyE:
. Good Morning All! Gro this is looking ominous , this could be a TS in the making , real soon , now the race is on Fernand , or Gabrielle !


Things are definitely starting to wake up throughout the ATL. I think within three to five days we will be seeing all sorts of blobjiwhara going on.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1029 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

.UPDATE...
THIS MORNING`S SOUNDINGS FROM THE CAPE AND TAMPA TELL THE STORY
OF A FAIRLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE. CLOUD COVER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA...AND IT IS THIS VARIABLE THAT WILL LIKELY MAKE OR BREAK
TODAY`S FORECAST. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES THANKS TO GAPS
IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD GET A FEW SHOWERS GOING LATER THIS
MORNING. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH 400MB SHOULD TRANSPORT CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA...KEEPING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON
OUR SIDE OF THE COAST. BIGGEST THREATS FOR TODAY REMAIN HEAVY RAIN
AND LIGHTNING AS H50 TEMPS REMAIN WARM (-6 TO -7C) AND LAPSE RATES
REMAIN WEAK. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO WIND AND TEMP
GRIDS...OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

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so IF erin stays weaker..he is more likely to keep heading westward and if he regains strength he gets pulled more NW?...we surely don't need him in the gulf next weekend.
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Is the wave in front of Erin developing an anticyclone?
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65. SLU
Quoting 28. allancalderini:
Thanks Dr.Masters.Cool I hope 92L becomes Fernand it just need convection near its center.Do you believe this year 1 can affect Central America?it show low pressure in my area in 2012 and I didn`t get hit by a single storm.


Well Hurricane Ernesto made landfall there last year. There was a large weakness in the ridge in the CATL last year which deflected most of the activity away from the Caribbean. However, this year most of the activity will exist in the MDR and the Caribbean which would certainly improve the chances of landfalling hurricanes in Central America. Also there is a great deal of heat energy in the sea in the WCAR so a developed tropical cyclone entering the Caribbean under favourable upper level winds could spell big trouble like we saw in 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2008.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
The wave behind the blob splashing down now may be interesting as well; it already has a nice spin to it.

Also, little spurts of convection are popping up on some of 92L's outer spirals. Might be the start of something, might not. Seems like the LLC has slowed its westward track just a tad, too.
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I think its curious how different departments of the NWS classify storms. 01c in central pacific looks like a full fledged tropical storm and the central pacific hurricane center hasn't classified it yet even as its looked quite good in the last 24 hours. Here in the Atlantic, the NHS are quite the opposite, I think they classify storms far too quickly and it looks like Erin is another example.
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Quoting 27. Grothar:
. Good Morning All! Gro this is looking ominous , this could be a TS in the making , real soon , now the race is on Fernand , or Gabrielle !
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Quoting 43. RitaEvac:


Yep, as it makes landfall over MX or TX all the rain will be a thousand miles away from the center

Watching the skinny line is more fun.
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS WEAKENED. THE STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL WITH A COUPLE OF
SMALL AREAS OF CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE FALLEN...AND ERIN IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE OBSERVED WEAKENING IS
LIKELY THE RESULT OF COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STABLE AIR...
AS SEEN IN THE GOES-R PROVING GROUND AIRMASS PRODUCT. ALTHOUGH ERIN
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER IN A FEW DAYS...
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE WHILE THE DEPRESSION
REMAINS IN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION CALLS
FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ERIN COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OR AN OPEN
TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE FEELS SOME INFLUENCE FROM A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS...LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...CAUSING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. BEYOND THAT
TIME...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED WHEN THE WEAK
CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 16.9N 32.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 17.9N 34.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 19.1N 36.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 19.9N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 20.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 21.1N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 23.5N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 25.5N 52.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Erin now a TD

11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 16
Location: 16.9°N 32.1°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
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Quoting 48. louisianaboy444:
Lol no mention of Louisiana, the region that could get the most weather from this system on the east side. Everything west of New Orleans is considered Texas :)
someone from that area did in the last blog
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I don't believe I've ever seen an ULL move directly over a LLC,

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I am rooting for Pouch 20. I think Wunderkidcayman, me, and kman are the only ones rooting for it :P. Its so cute haha
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Quoting 40. seer2012:


Next in line, please!


WOW. Gorgeous shot!
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I believe Erin is being downgrade to td status.
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Erin now a depression.
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Quoting 46. PanhandleChuck:
Surprise, flash flood watch for entire Panhandle


Yes you all there should have had quite the spell of wet weather!
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Quoting 37. AussieStorm:


Does everyone remember Dorian. How many people here called him dead a number of times and he came back.


I believe Dorian can be called a zombie..he earned it..
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Never turn your back on a 40W Seed

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Lol no mention of Louisiana, the region that could get the most weather from this system on the east side. Everything west of New Orleans is considered Texas :)
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
919 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BIBB COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
EASTERN PEACH COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
CENTRAL TWIGGS COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 913 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
WARNED AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES IN HOUR WERE
OCCURRING AS THE SHOWERS MOVED NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. BEULAH
BRANCH...BAY GALL CREEK AND SANDY RUN CREEK BASINS SHOULD BEGIN
OVERFLOWING THEIR BANKS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WARNER
ROBINS...JEFFERSONVILLE...BYRON AND CENTERVILLE.

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Surprise, flash flood watch for entire Panhandle
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Quoting 40. seer2012:


Next in line, please!


WOW!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
There's a chance we could have 4 named storms active at the same time.

1.) Erin

2.) 92L if it develops

3.) The Little Wave That Could:- The T-Wave ahead and south of Erin that I called 3 days ago *ego off*...Will probably be 95L soon.

4.) The wave coming off Africa will certainly develop and should become 94L very soon.

Extra.) Another huge wave behind future 94L will come off Africa soon enough, and it is also looking promising.

Going to be interesting for sure.
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Quoting 31. LargoFl:
no matter where 92 goes..the huge plume of heavy rains go NE up thru the south altantic states..


Yep, as it makes landfall over MX or TX all the rain will be a thousand miles away from the center
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Quoting 33. calkevin77:


One of the most wise comments I have read. Heck sometimes these storms have shown that even after death they come back...Oh wait that's one of my favorite TV series.


Mine too:) Cant wait till October..
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Quoting 35. PanhandleChuck:


Sleeper?


They do sneak up sometimes.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather