92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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2291. 19N81W
have we had a hurricane yet?
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2290. ackee
I have learn a lot from this blog from trolls wish caster even down caster I think this is the best tropical blog each person brings a different view on the tropics
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2289. ricderr
Is 92L moving back into the Yucatan?




I would think it is stationary, however the low might be reforming....might be easier to see if the flaoter was more centered over the increasing convection.....

i could always go to another site and copy and paste what others think...but then i might sound intelligent and that won't happen.....


ok cowboys.....time to shoot this one down too
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2288. DFWjc
Quoting 2282. stormhawg:
Dear God,

While we are very grateful for your gifts of abundance, we are also more than happy to share the rain that you have continued to provide us with our neighbors.

Please let us know if you need directions to Texas and we will email you a link to Google Map.

Sincerely,

The Florida Panhandle aka the Monsoon Paradise....


And we'd gladly accept all the rain we could get. My mother lives is NE Texas and they are 30 inches below right now....
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what is the feature south of the azores? anything?

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2286. Scotth
How bout a song for the day?

http://youtu.be/h4bc9UwZsYs
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Quoting 2278. PanhandleChuck:
So I don't get banned, I'll let y'all fill in the blank. The ground here is soggy as ____

cooked oatmeal? ;)
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Quoting 2279. seer2012:
I see a 6. :D
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Dear God,

While we are very grateful for your gifts of abundance, we are also more than happy to share the rain that you have continued to provide us with our neighbors.

Please let us know if you need directions to Texas and we will email you a link to Google Map.

Sincerely,

The Florida Panhandle aka the Monsoon Paradise....
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2281. LargoFl
Quoting 2268. victoria780:
The trough digging in from the north is shearing 92l,once the trough lifts out look for slow development ..Are you a meteorologist ? No,but I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night.
LOL yes models do maybe bring it up to TS for awhile once that happens
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Quoting 2274. ncstorm:
so has 92L been deactivated? I dont see it on WU page anymore
Nope still there, don't know why WU took it down?

AL, 92, 2013081712, , BEST, 0, 207N, 928W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Link
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So I don't get banned, I'll let y'all fill in the blank. The ground here is soggy as ____
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I see we have TD12 and TD13 in the WPAC now. Current tracks indicate they will come very close to each other.





We should definitely see a Fujiwhara Effect between the two of them which will be interesting to watch!


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2276. Dakster
Quoting 2271. Scotth:
Anyone care to help? http://www.ehow.com/how_2120468_build-ark.html


Sure, I'll send over the two mosquitos and roaches you will need.
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Quoting 2265. MisterPerfect:
Is 92L moving back into the Yucatan?

Looks like it is starting to become stretched out into a surface trough.
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2274. ncstorm
so has 92L been deactivated? I dont see it on WU page anymore
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Attention panhandle Sunday school teachers...time to break out your Genesis 7 lesson.
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2271. Scotth
Anyone care to help? http://www.ehow.com/how_2120468_build-ark.html
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2269. LargoFl
so far all clear around here.............
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Quoting 2253. LargoFl:
nam and gfs have this going on for more than 96 hours whew.
The trough digging in from the north is shearing 92l,once the trough lifts out look for slow development ..Are you a meteorologist ? No,but I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night.
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2267. hydrus
Andrew was named today back in 92. Andrew was small but powerful. Floyd ,Andrew comparison while at the same intensity.

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2266. LargoFl
LOOK at all that moisture streaming northeast wow..
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Is 92L moving back into the Yucatan?

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2264. IKE

Quoting Scotth:


I got the same radar pic, IKE. I'm here in defuniak too. Looks like like a good day for a book! I'd say a good day for a movie but as soon as a rain drop falls we lose our dish.
This is bad today. Glad I got my new tin roof last fall. Unbelievable rains.
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2262. LargoFl
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR
FLOODING IN...
CENTRAL RICHMOND COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEASTERN ANSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1100 AM EDT

* AT 835 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL RICHMOND AND SOUTHEASTERN ANSON
COUNTIES. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 600 AM.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS...IN LOW LYING
AREAS...AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITIONS...PONDING
WATER WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS ALONG US HIGHWAY 1 TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF ROCKINGHAM.

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Is 92L stationary atm?
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Quoting 2239. waveRoller:


Thatll make some waves in Florida! Thanks for the post GT. Lets hope it stays out to sea for the fishes. I dont feel like putting up the shutters.
Good morning and no problem, the catalyst is the area of disturbed weather behind a tropical wave that is an area of low pressure attached to the monsoon trough which is around 50 West, this is not the same system the GFS develops in the long range. Dry air is its main inhibitor at this point and the CMC which is constantly referred to some here as "Constantly Making Cyclones" is the only model aggressively showing this.



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2258. LargoFl
alot of these kinds of warnings up there.......Flood Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
922 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...

APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...
GULF AND LIBERTY COUNTIES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU
SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.

FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND CLICK ON YOUR RIVER POINT.

&&

FLC013-037-045-077-181322-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0078.130817T2136Z-130819T1800Z/
/BLOF1.1.ER.130817T2136Z.130818T0600Z.130819T1200 Z.NO/
922 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO MONDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS
CANCELLED.
* AT 8:06 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.1 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.5 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE
RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. THIS LEVEL
IS THE TOP OF THE BANK AT THE MARINA.

$$
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2257. ncstorm
.
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2256. Scotth
Quoting 2250. IKE:
Not going to stop anytime soon.....wow :(




I got the same radar pic, IKE. I'm here in defuniak too. Looks like like a good day for a book! I'd say a good day for a movie but as soon as a rain drop falls we lose our dish.
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2255. DFWjc
Quoting 2245. GTstormChaserCaleb:
This comment came off as a misconception or common fallacy known as a generalization. You said, "you people" which would refer to everybody in here including the trolls who come here everyday. The fact of the matter is and if you were on last night I said if you lived through Mitch, Georges, Katrina, or Andrew you would likely be fine with the storms staying away from you and OTS, now I put emphasis on likely because it is also possible that some although scared to admit it because of fear of being bashed to death on this blog would want to experience it again maybe for their own thrill or what not. Now there are some regulars here who want to see the major hurricanes, but have them stay OTS. I firmly believe the average sane person would never wish death and destruction, I would leave that to a madman making a wish like that.


This had to be put....
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2254. LargoFl
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2253. LargoFl
Quoting 2248. IKE:
And more rain is headed this way....looks to be moving NNE from the GOM.....


nam and gfs have this going on for more than 96 hours whew.
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Can you say training, when will it end?

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2250. IKE
Not going to stop anytime soon.....wow :(


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2248. IKE
And more rain is headed this way....looks to be moving NNE from the GOM.....


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2247. LargoFl
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-
ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Matara, first of all it's nice to see a fellow astronomer. Hoping to get a z10 Zhumell reflector soon when I cough up the money. Second of all, not everyone on here wishes for a US strike. The people on here who do are the ones who can't use the computer past 9 o'clock because their parents tell them to go to bed. They care less for the beauty of meteorology and more for missing school. They'll be gone soon once school starts back up next week. Having gone through Hurricane Isabel, Charley, Frances, Jeanne, Katrina, and Wilma I can tell you these things aren't something you take lightly or hope for on someone.
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Quoting 2194. matara28:
My God. I dont understand you people. It is obvious that this year its "dry"in hurricanes. You still hope at everey african wave to see a developing system and reach US? You wish for disasters? I remeber the asteriod episode form Russia. There were a few users who were a little disappointed because Russia had an asteroid and US dont...
This comment came off as a misconception or common fallacy known as a generalization. You said, "you people" which would refer to everybody in here including the trolls who come here everyday. The fact of the matter is and if you were on last night I said if you lived through Mitch, Georges, Katrina, or Andrew you would likely be fine with the storms staying away from you and OTS, now I put emphasis on likely because it is also possible that some although scared to admit it because of fear of being bashed to death on this blog would want to experience it again maybe for their own thrill or what not. Now there are some regulars here who want to see the major hurricanes, but have them stay OTS. I firmly believe the average sane person would never wish death and destruction, I would leave that to a madman making a wish like that.
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I really think NHC could conserve some crayons and deactivate 92L.
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2243. IKE
Pouring here in Defuniak Springs,FL.
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2242. LargoFl
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2241. CJ5
Quoting 2194. matara28:
My God. I dont understand you people. It is obvious that this year its "dry"in hurricanes. You still hope at everey african wave to see a developing system and reach US? You wish for disasters? I remeber the asteriod episode form Russia. There were a few users who were a little disappointed because Russia had an asteroid and US dont...


This blog is for tropical weather enthusiasts. We enjoy discussing, tracking and learning about tropical weather. No one here wishes for a disaster. If that is something you don't understand perhaps you need to find another blog.
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About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather