92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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2241. CJ5
Quoting 2194. matara28:
My God. I dont understand you people. It is obvious that this year its "dry"in hurricanes. You still hope at everey african wave to see a developing system and reach US? You wish for disasters? I remeber the asteriod episode form Russia. There were a few users who were a little disappointed because Russia had an asteroid and US dont...


This blog is for tropical weather enthusiasts. We enjoy discussing, tracking and learning about tropical weather. No one here wishes for a disaster. If that is something you don't understand perhaps you need to find another blog.
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Quoting 2034. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well jeez! Seems as though the GFS is not the only one seeing a storm approaching the East Coast in the long range.



Thatll make some waves in Florida! Thanks for the post GT. Lets hope it stays out to sea for the fishes. I dont feel like putting up the shutters.
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Cool, breezy and dry in SW LA. I'm loving it watching these tropical systems struggle this year. Hope the dry air and shear continue. Might be too much to wish for though.
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Stretched out Vorticity (rip, Vorticity).

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2236. icmoore
.
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Quoting 2194. matara28:
My God. I dont understand you people. It is obvious that this year its "dry"in hurricanes. You still hope at everey african wave to see a developing system and reach US? You wish for disasters? I remeber the asteriod episode form Russia. There were a few users who were a little disappointed because Russia had an asteroid and US dont...

Who are you people? Why is everything about the US? We do have bloggers all over the world on here. I don't know who is wishing for disasters or why that is even brought up by you. Can you validate who said that? Because I didn't say any posts wanting that today. Posts like you wrote above is a quick way to go to a iggy list. Tread lightly ok?
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2234. LargoFl
wow going to be a very wet 24 hours for some folks huh..
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I don't put any stock into the GFS beyond 144 hours for serious guidance, however one run of the GFS dropping the system does not mean the GFS has got it nailed by any means. Having several runs showing a Category 2-3 hurricane and the next dropping it is just bad consistency as usual. The odds are in favor of development vs. not.
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2232. scott39
Quoting 2224. matara28:


I have as a hobby, among astronomy and sports, weather, and i dont understand the lack of objectivism which is present here. Dont misinterpret what i am saying.
That is called lack of experience or knowledge of weather....and is just entertainment while learning....after awhile some do mature in the experience and knowledge of weather, and have great input.
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Quoting 2220. EcoLogic:
Forget umbrellas...we're passing out snorkels today in Gulf Breeze, Fl. 4.5 inches since midnight and it looks like she is just getting warmed up!



4" at my house in Pensacola since last night. Gonna have to swim out to the mailbox to get my mail later on today. Ha!
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morning everyone...looks like 92 just might be trying to get her act together...but drifting se? Was sure hoping to wake up to some good surf but nothing but rain...and a lot of it! Still think we might be in for a surprise, the gulf is full of surprises....
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2229. ncstorm
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Quoting 2226. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Putting stock into any runs of the GFS in the long range is not a good idea. A blend of the past several shows us the wave needs to be watched.
good point, 12z will probably show both of them
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2227. LargoFl
panhandle might see some waterspouts or brief tornado's today..
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Quoting 2219. wunderweatherman123:
how much stock are you buying the 6z run of the GFS? yesterday the run got messed up. i still see the CV train despite the 6z backing off. we might get invest 94L soon

Putting stock into any runs of the GFS in the long range is not a good idea. A blend of the past several shows us the wave needs to be watched.
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2225. ncstorm
00z CMC developing the 45W wave..hurling it to NC

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Quoting 2200. PensacolaDoug:



Take a deep breath, (and maybe a zannie) and ask yourself, what you are doing here.


I have as a hobby, among astronomy and sports, weather, and i dont understand the lack of objectivism which is present here. Dont misinterpret what i am saying.
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2223. LargoFl
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2222. scott39
Quoting 2194. matara28:
My God. I dont understand you people. It is obvious that this year its "dry"in hurricanes. You still hope at everey african wave to see a developing system and reach US? You wish for disasters? I remeber the asteriod episode form Russia. There were a few users who were a little disappointed because Russia had an asteroid and US dont...
Its called human nature. Most people want to see or experience the awe of mother nature.
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Forget umbrellas...we're passing out snorkels today in Gulf Breeze, Fl. 4.5 inches since midnight and it looks like she is just getting warmed up!
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Quoting 2209. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The views of a few people do not represent the views of the rest of us.
how much stock are you buying the 6z run of the GFS? yesterday the run got messed up. i still see the CV train despite the 6z backing off. we might get invest 94L soon
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Quoting 2214. LargoFl:
Hi must have had some rain here last night..everything is wet now..nothing so far this morning yet..local mets say alot of rain possible here this afternoon,we'll see what happens.
It's hard to believe that storm didn't wake you last night! The lightning was incredible. It came through between one and two I believe
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Quoting 2208. SLU:


lol.

Maybe you might get a couple storms to make up for the shortfall.


This weekend and first part of next week are supposed to be somewhat rainy. So maybe we will indeed get a little something. I hope it so badly XD
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Still a circulation associated with 92L, but it's weakening.

After not performing at DMAX, I'd keep chances of redevelopment low, but there's some convection firing over the center right now it seems, so we'll have to see if it can get something going. IF it can, it just might be able to use the BOC to spin up better again and give itself a second chance. If not, I hope it made a will.
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2215. hydrus
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2214. LargoFl
Quoting 2206. MisterPerfect:
Where are you at Largo? Any of that rain coming for you?
Hi must have had some rain here last night..everything is wet now..nothing so far this morning yet..local mets say alot of rain possible here this afternoon,we'll see what happens.
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Quoting 2210. VR46L:



LOL!!

Bit early in the morning for that !!

Sure looks like the Northern Gulf is in for a very wet day...





The rain started about 5 am in Fort Walton Beach and we're up to 2.5" so far. Good soggy morning everyone!
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2212. scott39
Quoting 2184. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. An absolutely beautiful 66 degrees this morning. I've already been out in the garden and after some coffee will head back out again. It looks like 92L won't be giving us any much needed rain here.

Breakfast's on the sideboard next to CF's if she's been here: shrimp and spinach omelet, Crawfish Breakfast Enchiladas with and without cheese, Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce, fluffy scrambled eggs, maple flavored bacon, sausage links,
cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
OK.... please stop torturing me every morning! Lol... Ive got a generic poptart and some milk. Could I please come to your house for breakfast, or at least point me in the direction of the nearest Golden Coral breakfast Bar. Im kidding of course, sometimes my imagination of your beautiful painted picture of food is enough:)
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2211. hydrus
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2210. VR46L
Quoting 2205. Rmadillo:
I need some Irish coffee. That stuff is delicious.

Meanwhile ... More rain for those folks along the northern gulf.



LOL!!

Bit early in the morning for that !!

Sure looks like the Northern Gulf is in for a very wet day...



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Quoting 2194. matara28:
My God. I dont understand you people. It is obvious that this year its "dry"in hurricanes. You still hope at everey african wave to see a developing system and reach US? You wish for disasters? I remeber the asteriod episode form Russia. There were a few users who were a little disappointed because Russia had an asteroid and US dont...

The views of a few people do not represent the views of the rest of us.
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2208. SLU
Quoting 2199. CaribBoy:


While the southern part is stalling just a few miles to the east... and will probably dissipate lol.


lol.

Maybe you might get a couple storms to make up for the shortfall.
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2207. SLU
Quoting 2191. hydrus:
I very much agree SLU. When this year is over, I bet there are going to be more tracks similar to David and Frederic...Two storms I remember well.


Yep. It's one of the best analogues to 2013. The 500mb height anomalies, the SLP anomalies and the 400mb temperature anomalies for 1979 match up very well with 2013. Other great analogues based on the steering patterns are 1966, 1988, 1996 and of course 2004. All of these years were very high impact years.
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Where are you at Largo? Any of that rain coming for you?
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I need some Irish coffee. That stuff is delicious.

Meanwhile ... More rain for those folks along the northern gulf.
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2204. VR46L
Good Morning Sounds like an interesting day for the northern Gulf!

LSU IR imagery



Loop Embedded
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Quoting 2194. matara28:
My God. I dont understand you people. It is obvious that this year its "dry"in hurricanes. You still hope at everey african wave to see a developing system and reach US? You wish for disasters? I remeber the asteriod episode form Russia. There were a few users who were a little disappointed because Russia had an asteroid and US dont...




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NWS Tallahassee ‏@NWSTallahassee 22m ago
Radar indicating possible water spout just offshore Panama City Beach. #besafe #flwx
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The nations have fallen, and thou still art young,
Thy sun is but rising, when others are set;
And though slavery's cloud o'er thy morning hath hung,
The full noon of freedom shall beam round thee yet.
Erin, oh Erin, though long in the shade,
Thy star will shine out when the proudest shall fade.



Erin, Oh Erin by Thomas Moore - Verse II
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Quoting 2194. matara28:
My God. I dont understand you people. It is obvious that this year its "dry"in hurricanes. You still hope at everey african wave to see a developing system and reach US? You wish for disasters? I remeber the asteriod episode form Russia. There were a few users who were a little disappointed because Russia had an asteroid and US dont...



Take a deep breath, (and maybe a zannie) and ask yourself, what you are doing here.
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Quoting 2189. SLU:


Some of it looks to be passing to the north...


While the southern part is stalling just a few miles to the east... and will probably dissipate lol.
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Next week should be very interesting.
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morning. i see the 6z GFS dropped our wave but 0z still showed it. despite the GFS dropping it, the E. atlantic will get active. we might get an invest soon on that wave
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My God. I dont understand you people. It is obvious that this year its "dry"in hurricanes. You still hope at everey african wave to see a developing system and reach US? You wish for disasters? I remeber the asteriod episode form Russia. There were a few users who were a little disappointed because Russia had an asteroid and US dont...
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Buoy to the NW of 92L is reporting NNE winds of 20 mph. Yesterday that buoy averaged around 11 mph winds, so could be some very slow strengthening going on.


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Did someone say seedlings?.


Okay well I must be headed out now.It will be another fabulous weather day here in the DMV.Thanks aislinnpaps for breakfast.See ya'll later.
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2191. hydrus
Quoting 2120. SLU:
If anything, 1979 and 2004 are a few of the best analogs to August 2013 so far.


Image and video hosting by TinyPic




Image and video hosting by TinyPic




Image and video hosting by TinyPic

I very much agree SLU. When this year is over, I bet there are going to be more tracks similar to David and Frederic...Two storms I remember well.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather