92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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2191. hydrus
Quoting 2120. SLU:
If anything, 1979 and 2004 are a few of the best analogs to August 2013 so far.


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I very much agree SLU. When this year is over, I bet there are going to be more tracks similar to David and Frederic...Two storms I remember well.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Good Morning!

7:14 am (11:14 GMT)

Sunrise from Lantana, Florida.


Dexter demonstrates how to stay on point. Now, if I would only take his advice...

No rain yesterday, none expected today. Have a great day everyone.
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2189. SLU
Quoting 2185. CaribBoy:


Seeing it on satellite was a nice wake up surprise XD. BUT will it rain at my place.. Barbuda is getting its fix... as always this year.


Some of it looks to be passing to the north...
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2188. centex
Quoting 2179. Rmadillo:
This image shows why TX won't be seeing any action, and really all the way east to about NOLA. The dry air spilling down with the dip in the jet is obvious. The weather in the GOM is being funneled right up to the fl panhandle region.

your just tracking the ULL. Rain chances on increase starting Monday on the coast.
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2187. GetReal
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Quoting 2176. clwstmchasr:


You do realize there is a ts in the Atlantic?


And does he realize that's not true? In 10 days we'll probably be talking about our first hurricane forming.
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Quoting 2174. SLU:


Nice looking blobette.


Seeing it on satellite was a nice wake up surprise XD. BUT will it rain at my place.. Barbuda is getting its fix... as always this year.
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Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. An absolutely beautiful 66 degrees this morning. I've already been out in the garden and after some coffee will head back out again. It looks like 92L won't be giving us any much needed rain here.

Breakfast's on the sideboard next to CF's if she's been here: shrimp and spinach omelet, Crawfish Breakfast Enchiladas with and without cheese, Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce, fluffy scrambled eggs, maple flavored bacon, sausage links,
cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
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2182. GetReal


I expect that the ULL and what is left of 92L will put on a pretty impressive show this morning into this afternoon. I now do not expect any further development, until IF that ULL can work its' way down to the surface.
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Quoting 2178. clwstmchasr:


Where is the seedling right now? That's a long way out and wouldn't the genesis begin much closer to home?


Currently emerging off Africa.
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From my facebook..two days ago..still going on though

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This image shows why TX won't be seeing any action, and really all the way east to about NOLA. The dry air spilling down with the dip in the jet is obvious. The weather in the GOM is being funneled right up to the fl panhandle region.

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Very hostile environment for 92L. Extremely dry air to its West (especially up in Texas.
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2174. SLU
Quoting 2152. CaribBoy:
Sure I'll dissipate before reaching me :(



Nice looking blobette.
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2173. vis0
CREDIT insmet (Cuba) via NOAA

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A Song of Flood and Fire: One Million Square Kilometers of Burning Siberia Doused by Immense Deluge

Link

“Reuters) – As many as 100,000 people may be evacuated from their homes near Russia’s border with China if the region’s biggest floods for 120 years get worse, Russian media reported on Saturday.

Link
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Quoting 2168. centex:
I've seen more interst in near zero invest. Remember NHC has it medium for a reason and not just for some unrealistic reason.

tropics quiet next 10 days
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2168. centex
I've seen more interst in near zero invest. Remember NHC has it medium for a reason and not just for some unrealistic reason.
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Never turn your back on a ULL seed.
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According to this Erin should continue West. Must be a weakness there.


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Quoting 2162. clwstmchasr:


No, but I thought they would in the five day. Guess they don't think it has any chance to develop


The possible genesis of this system would occur about 8-10 days from now, so there's no need to mention it until next week.
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i am getting ready for the new invest in the next 28 hours!
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2160. centex
Looks like WU glitch with 92L.
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I guess that is the surface reflection for 92L, down there at 23n/90w.

Laughable, really.
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2158. tkdaime
what ia the blowup of thunderstorms near lesser antillas
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Waiting for local sunrise to see if any swirl is visible.
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2154. Roark
Quoting Rmadillo:
I hope this people in south TX aren't wasting money buying supplies for a land falling system. Just looks like nothing heading that way from the gulf disturbance.


Cant speak for the city folks, but we keep the supplies stocked all year now. After IKE, a lot of people got a wake up call (myself included) and now keep pantries full, fuel cached, etc. We were out of grid power locally for 13 days. Makes a believer out of you quick when it comes to preparation.
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Sure I'll dissipate before reaching me :(

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2151. GetReal
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Good morning. Erin's convection has been completely sheared off, she will probably weaken to a remnant low sooner than the NHC thinks:

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06z, for whatever reason, dropped any development of the Cape Verde wave. However I don't think that will verify as it's only one run vs the 6 or 7 the GFS has been showing development of. Here's the 00z GFS end of the run, at the end of "fantasy land."
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I hope this people in south TX aren't wasting money buying supplies for a land falling system. Just looks like nothing heading that way from the gulf disturbance.
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2146. GetReal
Quoting 2099. IKE:
Looks to me like the ULL in the GOM absorbed 92L.



I agree Ike... The only chance for development now rest with the ULL working its' way down to the surface. Buoy in the central GOM is reporting a rising barometer with a SOUTH wind, which would indicate no surface reflection.
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2144. LargoFl
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2143. mrmombq
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2142. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPING. THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE HELD OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHICH WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
COLLIDES WITH THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. AN ISOLATED
PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

OGLESBY
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2141. mrmombq
http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/satanalatl2013/cur rent_NRL.png
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather