92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2141 - 2091

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

2141. mrmombq
http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/satanalatl2013/cur rent_NRL.png
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning everyone
Nice pic Salty dog
-back to coffee and watching from the background
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One of my professors, Ms Creant, used to always tell us not to fixate on tropical development to the expense of ignoring other weather that may have more impact.

The situation in the GOM would be a good example of that.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2138. LargoFl
I wonder why the local mets increased rain chances in the 7-day?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
African Wave designated as Pouch 23L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2136. LargoFl
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2135. ackee
bieaxbillybob

you think the models have been spinning up storms that dont develop?? why would you think that?


Yep if you should count amount of storm the CMC spin ups this year and the GFS at times we would be near 9 storm or even 10
Storm by now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
img src="">

Morning everyone! Nice Thunderstorm here this morning in Grand Cayman
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2133. LargoFl
RAIN STILL COMING IN OVER THE VERY SAME AREA'S EVEN 72 hours out..flooding folks.....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2132. IKE

Quoting Rmadillo:


They are "backing away slowly" from 92L.

The ULL and weather with it is the main event now.
I agree.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2131. IKE
Had .79 inches at my location the last 24 hours. Raining moderately now.

5.25 for the month, so far.

Around 23 inches since July 1st.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2122. IKE:
Not sure what the NHC sees with 92L. I'll wait for visible to see what they are talking about.


They are "backing away slowly" from 92L.

The ULL and weather with it is the main event now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2127. K8eCane
Quoting 2123. bieaxbillybob:
why thanks, ill tell him you said thatg. uncle flip is just my uncle and a good fisherman. he kn ows these waters like the back of his hand.. was concidered to be the best crawdad man in town


I know a couple guys like that. they are salt of the earth for sure
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2124. HurricaneAndre:
Did they mention the Afrca wave.




NO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2125. IKE

Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Did they mention the Afrca wave.
Nope.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Did they mention the Afrca wave.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2122. IKE
Not sure what the NHC sees with 92L. I'll wait for visible to see what they are talking about.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2120. SLU
If anything, 1979 and 2004 are a few of the best analogs to August 2013 so far.


Image and video hosting by TinyPic




Image and video hosting by TinyPic




Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2119. K8eCane
Quoting 2112. bieaxbillybob:
my uncle flip is heading out fishing this morning water is flat



Morning everybody. Best place I can find to check on things tropical.
I did want to say I have never heard of an Uncle Flip.
Love it!
Has a nice ring to it lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2118. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 150 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE LOW GENERALLY MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS
IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That ULL is driving the bus now in the GOM. As mentioned last night, the old "LLC" that was hanging out west of the YucAtan yesterday is now a faint swirlie of nothingness. Tropical development chances are really about Zero, despite the 50% designation by NHC.

However the WEATHER associated with the GOM disturbance is very much a real threat. So the anchors from the cable news networks won't be REPORTING LIVE from wherever to report landfall, but many of you along the northern gulf coast will get a significant rain event for this weekend.

Enjoy!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2115. ackee
I see 92L is no more Good let's give the Euro credit it did not develop the system the euro has been doing very well this seasons showing very few system develop unlike The GFS FIM and CmC all did develop 92L at one point. Until the Euro picks up on a disturbance and show possible development I personal won't take other models too serious I think they have been spinning up too much storm that fail to develop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning all... So is 92L a goner?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2113. IKE

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2111. SLU
Quoting 2083. KoritheMan:


2011 was the closest I could find, but it should be noted that the trough axis is a little farther west with the current setup. And again, we still have half of August left for a transition:



2011


Since your intervals are large, most of the data are hidden as "neutral". By adjusting your intervals, you can see that the pattern is vey much favouring a high impact year in the Caribbean and the US. The pattern in 2011 is totally different to 2013. We certainly won't see as many recurvatures this year relative to 2011.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2095. WxLogic:
Keep an eye on P20L... has a little potential.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2106. Kyon5

Quoting 2098. seer2012:

Sat. morning, the splashdown doesn't appear to have wiped out the latest Train car.
Very interesting for sure. This wave has potential and could become a storm later down the road. It's also on a low latitude which means less dry air, warmer waters, and moisture from the ITCZ. We'll see what happens.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2105. IKE

Quoting bieaxbillybob:
we had a 2 minute sprinkle yesterday
Where are you located?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2104. vis0
CREDIT: wisc.edu via CIMSS / GOES Cloud (ECA) DPI.

ULL taking the clouds during morning max (where it seems a dot is forming, ULL clouds) & Tropical LLC 5 - 7 degrees SSW of that "dot" taking clouds during evening min. PLACE YER BETS KNOW ( for natures' entertainment, only)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2101. IKE

Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Sho nuff,
Gotta check my rain gauge when/if it stops.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2099. IKE
Looks to me like the ULL in the GOM absorbed 92L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Sat. morning, the splashdown doesn't appear to have wiped out the latest Train car.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2089. IKE:
It is pouring out here in the Florida panhandle.



Sho nuff,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A better view to see what looks to be a training setup of moisture from central GOM to the coast. Much like 4 July weekend.

Shortwave:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2095. WxLogic
Keep an eye on P20L... has a little potential.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2091. Rmadillo:
ULL seen being kind of pulled up into that blow up of convection in the central GOM. Associated weather drawn north/ northeast to northern gulf coast by trough influence.

Rainy wknd in store from Biloxi eastward.



As predicted by the GFS 6Z run
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ULL seen being kind of pulled up into that blow up of convection in the central GOM. Associated weather drawn north/ northeast to northern gulf coast by trough influence.

Rainy wknd in store from Biloxi eastward.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2141 - 2091

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather