92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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ULL seen being kind of pulled up into that blow up of convection in the central GOM. Associated weather drawn north/ northeast to northern gulf coast by trough influence.

Rainy wknd in store from Biloxi eastward.

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2089. IKE
It is pouring out here in the Florida panhandle.
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2088. tkeith
I see WU has dropped 92L from the tropical page.

Looks like it's just gonna be a ruiner of Sunday golf here in NOLA...

(is "ruiner" really a word)?
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2087. WxLogic
Good Morning
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Good morning to all.

Kori. In terms of the Lesser Antilles thru PR,you see close calls or strikes to the islands with the pattern shaping up?
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Quoting 2066. bigwes6844:
i heard about that 588 line


Yeah. Very important.
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Quoting 2063. yankees440:



What previous seasons can we compare this August setup to as opposed to July?


2011 was the closest I could find, but it should be noted that the trough axis is a little farther west with the current setup. And again, we still have half of August left for a transition:



2011
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Stationary... Interesting
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Big flare up over central GOM

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2080. vis0
CREDIT: wisc.edu via CIMSS Realtime GOES Derived Product Imagery (tmp@ Band 3 (14.1µm) ). The image is much larger, cropped only present the needed info.

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2079. GatorWX
Quoting 2051. GTstormChaserCaleb:
My personal favorite and the one that had me on the edge of my seat biting my fingernails.

Hurricane Charley as it crosses the western tip of Cuba and emerges into the GOM early in the morning before landfall in SW FL. (Friday August 13, 2004)



That was a crazy little storm. Borderline cat 5 and I was sitting 13-14 linear miles north of the eye with 60-70mph winds top. Went to PG the following morning. Utter devestation. It was very similar to what I remember after Andrew hit SE FL.
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I am only a layman, but looking at the wave just south east or Barbados, a couple days out from the windwards, I think this bears watching. 50 West 10 North.

This is the similar location to where Ivan sprung from and it does seem to have been trying to get going for a couple days now and has managed to become free of Erin.

What is the shear and dust like in that area now?

Cheers.
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Am i going crazy, or does it look like Erin is going to go out to sea, then curve back towards the CV islands? over the next week or two?
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2076. LargoFl
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2075. LargoFl
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2074. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..Blogs Coffee is Perked......
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Wow, several intensity models have Pewa becoming the next Ioke!
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I know my friend VR46L is gonna watch this closely
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nice blowup for 92L
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TROPICAL STORM PEWA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012013
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 16 2013

EVEN THOUGH PEWA...PRONOUNCED /PEH-VAH/...HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED
APPEARANCE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT CONTINUES TO BECOME
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT. A RAINBAND STRUCTURE HAS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...AND THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR MAINTAINING PEWA AS A VIABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE
NEAR FUTURE. THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES AT PHFO...JTWC AND SAB ALL
SHOWED THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS 3.0...SO WE HAVE KEPT PEWA A 45 KT
SYSTEM FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER APPEARS TO BE SOUTHWEST OF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION /LLCC/ BASED ON ASCAT (16/2050Z) AND OSCAT
(16/2353Z) PASSES FROM EARLIER TODAY. A 0519Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS
APPEARS TO SHOW THE LLCC MAY BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE FIX
AGENCIES INDICATED. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL POSITION IS A BLEND OF
THE LATEST FIXES AND AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE APPARENT
SCATTEROMETER-BASED TRACK OF THE LLCC. REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL
LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER...THE GENERAL MOTION OF
295/11 APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED FAR NORTH OF PEWA CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE FOR STEERING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE FORECAST MODELS
SHOW THE HIGH WILL BUILD WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP PEWA ON A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TRACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...AND
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK TO MORE CLOSELY FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN VERY CHALLENGING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF PEWA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS OVER WARM SSTS OF 28C
AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH INCREASINGLY WARM WATER AND OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE ENTIRE FORECAST PATH. HOWEVER PEWA MAY
EVENTUALLY BE IMPACTED BY THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY NEAR 22N 174E. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES PEWA
CAN INTENSIFY TO A TYPHOON IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN WITHIN 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT IS ASSUMED THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL KEEP IT FROM INTENSIFYING FURTHER DURING DAYS 3 TO 5. NOTE
THAT THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 16/2353Z
OSCAT PASS.

FINALLY...THE CENTER OF PEWA IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
DATE LINE INTO THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OF RSMC TOKYO LATER THIS
WEEKEND. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...PEWA MAY MAKE THIS CROSSING
AFTER 18/0000Z.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 10.7N 176.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 11.4N 178.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 12.4N 179.7E 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 13.4N 177.5E 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 14.6N 175.2E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 17.0N 170.5E 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 19.5N 165.5E 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 21.5N 161.5E 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
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Back to a Tropical storm Erin again
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp201 313_5day.html

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp2 01312_5day.html

If you look at the two maps at the above links, an odd thing is forecast for 3 AM Thursday: Both are supposed to be hurricanes in very nearly the same location, Taiwan. This is as of 8/17/13 at approximately 1:50 AM PST.

If the links do not work, can you guys do me a favor and list the steps on how to actually post the maps themselves? I've been tracking hurricanes for a couple of years now, and like to share what I see as odd happenings such as these.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PEWA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012013
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 16 2013

...PEWA CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 176.3W
ABOUT 1365 MI...2195 KM WSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 1210 MI...1950 KM S OF MIDWAY ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Quoting 2062. KoritheMan:


If this were to remain in place, yes. It's a pattern that favors storms recurving east of the United States.

Though that still wouldn't negate the danger of low-riding Caribbean storms or something along those lines.
i heard about that 588 line
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TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

THE CENTER OF ERIN IS AT LEAST PARTLY EXPOSED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DUE TO 15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THE CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT FARTHER FROM
THE CENTER THAN 6 HOURS AGO. THERE IS NO RECENT DATA FROM NEAR THE
CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT...WHICH IS ABOVE
THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/13. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD STEER ERIN GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED
BY A TURN MORE TO THE LEFT AROUND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH 72H. THEREAFTER...A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
WHEN ERIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...MOVES TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE
BETWEEN 50W-60W. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...
UKMET...CANADIAN..AND NAVGEM MODELS. THE TRACK LIES WELL TO THE
LEFT OF THE GFS...WHICH RECURVES ERIN THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE
RIDGE.

ERIN IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 25C-26C. WHILE
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER WARMER WATER...THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING INTO A VERY DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR MASS AS SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR AND METEOSAT AIR MASS IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CALLING FOR ERIN TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS AND TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96
HOURS. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT ERIN DISSIPATES EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
EXCEPT THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 18.9N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 19.7N 37.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 20.4N 38.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 20.9N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 21.4N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 23.0N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 25.5N 52.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

...ERIN STILL A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 35.6W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Quoting 2058. KoritheMan:
Much to my surprise, look at the pattern change from July to August (top is July, bottom is August):





Granted, we still have all of August left, but still, there's no denying the ridging over the Arctic in the second image, and the consequent troughing farther south.



What previous seasons can we compare this August setup to as opposed to July?
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Quoting 2061. bigwes6844:
so kori this basically shows that the pattern for re curves are still there right?


If this were to remain in place, yes. It's a pattern that favors storms recurving east of the United States.

Though that still wouldn't negate the danger of low-riding Caribbean storms or something along those lines.
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Quoting 2058. KoritheMan:
Much to my surprise, look at the pattern change from July to August (top is July, bottom is August):





Granted, we still have all of August left, but still, there's no denying the ridging over the Arctic in the second image, and the consequent troughing farther south.

Also, let's try not to create too big a pissing contest with this post between who wants hurricanes and who doesn't. I just thought it was interesting.
so kori this basically shows that the pattern for re curves are still there right?
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2060. Rosslou
Quoting 2059. KoritheMan:


Its behavior up to this point has been completely normal.




Ok thank you! I was just curious.
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Quoting 2052. Rosslou:
Question....Does a ULL have the capability to produce that much convection or is it possibility making a transition?


Its behavior up to this point has been completely normal.
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Much to my surprise, look at the pattern change from July to August (top is July, bottom is August):





Granted, we still have all of August left, but still, there's no denying the ridging over the Arctic in the second image, and the consequent troughing farther south.
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2057. vis0

2013_92L_201308-16;1830-201308-17;0530GMT
►CREDIT:
UNISYS. Post produced WV + VIS + EnhIR, Visible Sat. only through half of the clip and was pushed when image was losing detail due to darkness.


Someone is going to have to invent a SAT that acts as if visible view by picking up the Sun's radiation going through the planet and reading the miniscule heat difference...go to it NASA....S.Q.U.I.N.T.
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An upper-level low situated near 22N 173E should prevent Pewa from intensifying further by the next couple of days. As Pewa reaches close to the upper low, it will experience an increase in vertical shear and result in weakening. The evolution of the upper low, however, will determine how much weakening will occur.

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2055. IKE

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
AL, 92, 2013081706, , BEST, 0, 206N, 926W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

The ULL looks much better than 92L. Need a magnifying glass to see 92L.
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AL, 92, 2013081706, , BEST, 0, 206N, 926W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

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Quoting 1818. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Dangerous pattern continues to show up on the long range GFS:

Man GT dats September pattern of 2004 is all over again! Thats sick! Florida will be on edge if this verifies in two weeks. look where the High is. Thats crazy GT!
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2052. Rosslou
Question....Does a ULL have the capability to produce that much convection or is it possibility making a transition?
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My personal favorite and the one that had me on the edge of my seat biting my fingernails.

Hurricane Charley as it crosses the western tip of Cuba and emerges into the GOM early in the morning before landfall in SW FL. (Friday August 13, 2004)

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2050. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
15:00 PM JST August 17 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression South Of Okinawa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 20.7N 125.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 21.1N 127.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South Of Okinawa
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What a difference a year makes :)

Humberto



Ike

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Quoting 2009. robj144:


Do you teach at FAU?


Yep, I usually teach one class every semester (since 2010), while I plow through my PhD stuff.

(Department of Computer Science & Engineering)

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2046. Drakoen
Vorticity stretching occurring with 92L. A new area of 850mb vorticity maximum north of the old low now evident on cimss vorticity product. Old low is getting buried in the BOC.

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2045. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14
15:00 PM JST August 17 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Okinawa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 25.9N 129.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 27.6N 126.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Near Okinawa
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Quoting 2039. Camille33:


may be 94l coming soon


That, son, is pornography. Shame on you.
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2043. nigel20
I'm out as well. Good night fellow bloggers!
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Quoting 2030. daddyjames:
Well, I'm off to stare at the ceiling for a couple of hours before the brain decides whether or not it'll allow me sleep tonight. I wish all well. And will catch up with you later.


Later! I'm stayin' up all night to code this Android app. Getting it to talk to Facebook is being a pain.

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Quoting 2038. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Have a good night man, make sure to give the brains a good nights rest. And again thanks for your advice that means a lot to me.


Well if the past two nightds are any indication, it'll be a struggle :D

And before i go, the WPAC is going to be fun to watch. A dance between two storms, both expected to become cyclones, and a merger into a single storm. Will be extremely interesting to watch. From the discussion:

3. Forecast reasoning.
A. This is the initial prognostic reasoning and sets the forecast
philosophy.
B. TD 12w is currently tracking along the northern periphery of
the str axis. TD 12w is expected to experience direct cyclone
interaction (dci) with the neighboring TD 13w throughout the
forecast period
. TD 13w is currently 453 nm to the northeast. TD 12w
is expected to track eastward through tau 24 and then begin to turn
the northeast and eventually curve completely back to the west in a
cyclonic motion by tau 72. Meanwhile 13w will complete the cyclonic
turn beginning from the north and curve to the southwest. The
intensity is expected to slowly increase throughout the forecast
period. TD 12w is forecast to intensify to 30 knots by tau 12 and
reach tropical storm strength before beginning the cyclonic turn. As
TD 12w rounds the curve back to the west, the system is expected to
intensify to 50 knots. Confidence in the forecast track is low as
the dynamic model guidance is fairly spread and the global models
maybe struggling to handle the dci properly.
C. In the extended period, TD 12w is expected to continue to
track west-northwest as it merges with TD 13w
between tau 72 and
120. Both TD 12w and 13w are forecast to intensify to typhoon
strength upon merging
by tau 120. The large spread and uncertainty
in dynamic model guidance leaves low confidence in the forecast
track for this portion of the forecast. Additionally, due to the
large amount of dci anticipated in this scenario, it is expected
that global models will struggle to agree in forecast track and
intensity.//
Nnnn
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Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather