African Wave 94L Has Potential to Develop; 92L Dead; Erin Dying

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:22 PM GMT on August 18, 2013

It's time to turn our attention to the coast of Africa, where a new tropical wave (94L) has just emerged over the Tropical Atlantic. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and water temperatures are warm enough for development, 27.5°C. Satellite loops show that 94L has a modest amount of spin, but the storm's heavy thunderstorms are not very intense, and are poorly organized. The 12Z Sunday run of the SHIPS model predicted that during the next five days, wind shear for 94L will be mostly in the moderate range, and ocean temperatures will slowly cool to 26.5°C. These conditions should allow for some slow development. As usual, dry air from the Saharan Air Layer will likely be an impediment to development, as the 11 am EDT Sunday SAL analysis showed a large pulse of dry air and dust exiting from the Sahara just to the north of 94L. The Sunday 06Z run of the GFS model and 00Z run of the ECMWF model did not calling for 94L to develop. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 10% of developing by Tuesday, and a 30% chance of developing by Friday.


Figure 1. Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis from 11 am EDT Sunday August 18, 2013. A large pulse of dust and dry air was exiting the coast of Africa just north of tropical wave 94L. Note the swirl of dry air marking the center of Tropical Depression Erin, near 20°N 40°W. Image credit: University of Wisconsin/NOAA-HRD.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 92L dies
The tropical disturbance (92L) that was over the Gulf of Mexico the past few days has now degenerated into a trough of low pressure with little heavy thunderstorm activity, and is no longer a threat to develop. However, a flow of moist tropical air will take some of the remnants of 92L northwards over the Southeast U.S. over the next few days, bringing a swath of 3+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Sunday August 18, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin dying
Tropical Storm Erin over the Eastern Atlantic is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. Dry air, moderate wind shear, and marginal water temperatures will likely destroy the storm by Monday, as predicted by all of the reliable global computer models and the NHC.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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1438. ScottLincoln
5:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1436. jpsb:


And I thought they were blaming partly The Sun, I also recall Astronomer William Herschel making a similar observation over 200 years ago. Something about the price of wheat and Sun Spots.


The part of the article I was referring to is when they claimed recent warming was just because we are "coming out of the Little Ice Age."
That is a statement without substance, because climate doesnt just "go into" something or "come out" of something. Climate responds to a balance - or imbalance - of forcings. Something caused climate to change to a relatively-cooler period over numerous decades (which humans later decided to call The Little Ice Age). The forcings today are not the same as then, and they didn't change because we were "coming out" of anything. It's not magic... it's physics.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1437. GeorgiaStormz
3:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1405. Neapolitan:
Special Guest Comment:



You automatically correlate wanting excitement and wanting death and destruction.

Every huricane season, people complain about lack of activity. That does not mean they want death and destruction.

Non sequitir......your conclusion does not follow from your premise.


Anyway, I think your overall point is worth making, and yes there is plenty of time left this season.
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1436. jpsb
3:17 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1426. ScottLincoln:

Yes, quite a morning chuckle. Did anyone else see the big whoppers in there about the Little Ice Age ending due to magic and heat being created against the laws of thermodynamics?

Just the sheer ignorance of basic aspects of climate science is enough to get a chuckle out of me, until I realize that decision-makers actually believe this kind of stuff as truthful and more authoritative than actual climate and meteorology papers.


And I thought they were blaming partly The Sun, I also recall Astronomer William Herschel making a similar observation over 200 years ago. Something about the price of wheat and Sun Spots.

"The Little Ice Age, following the historically warm temperatures of the Medieval Warm Period, which lasted from about AD 950 to 1250, has been attributed to natural cycles in solar activity, particularly sunspots. A period of sharply lower sunspot activity known as the Wolf Minimum began in 1280 and persisted for 70 years until 1350. That was followed by a period of even lower sunspot activity that lasted 90 years from 1460 to 1550 known as the Sporer Minimum. During the period 1645 to 1715, the low point of the Little Ice Age, the number of sunspots declined to zero for the entire time. This is known as the Maunder Minimum, named after English astronomer Walter Maunder. That was followed by the Dalton Minimum from 1790 to 1830, another period of well below normal sunspot activity."
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1435. allancalderini
3:08 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
New blog please move to the next one.
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1434. CaribBoy
3:05 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
I'm wondering if the SAL map is reliable .... :/
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1432. CaribBoy
3:04 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Seriously, the map shows NO SAL over the Antilles....



BUT...



WHERE DOES THAT COME FROM!!
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1430. ScottLincoln
3:02 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1373. Bluestorm5:
I promise you it's not normal to be this cold during the day in August in the Southeast with these hot and humid summers the last 5 years I was in state... the highs are below averages most of month and the lows are about average here in Asheville.


"Normal" is misleading. It's only an average. It says little about how much variability there typically is for that time of year. It's actually quite "normal" to have a different value than the normal. This is especially true in winter, but not untrue in summer months, either. For here in southeast Louisiana the actual observed high temperature averages about 8 degrees off of the "normal" during the peak of winter and averages about 2-3 degrees off of the "normal" during the peak of summer.

The climate graph you showed, reproduced here:

actually looks quite normal. Have you looked at these before? Weather typically swings wildly back and forth across the climatic "normal" shaded area, which makes it... well, normal.
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1428. redwagon
3:00 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1393. RitaEvac:
Little more than month to go and can call it a season here in TX, Juuuuust about done


In #1350, there's another TWave right about where 92 was born. Plus, you'll probably get a little rain when x92L gets to you tomorrow.. I'm even forecasted to get rain from it Thursday, well, 20%.
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1427. Dakster
2:59 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
FYI - New Blog...
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1426. ScottLincoln
2:57 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1340. Dakster:


Global Cooling? A return of the ice age?

A little early morning humor.
Quoting 1386. jpsb:


To The Horror Of Global Warming Alarmists, Global Cooling Is Here



http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/05/ 26/to-the-horror-of-global-warming-alarmists-globa l-cooling-is-here/

Yes, quite a morning chuckle. Did anyone else see the big whoppers in there about the Little Ice Age ending due to magic and heat being created against the laws of thermodynamics?

Just the sheer ignorance of basic aspects of climate science is enough to get a chuckle out of me, until I realize that decision-makers actually believe this kind of stuff as truthful and more authoritative than actual climate and meteorology papers.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1425. daddyjames
2:54 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1415. SouthernIllinois:
what is what all the record cold going on in the CONUS. Are we looking at a 1979 winter? I really don't mind. Snow is moisture, and pretty. :) So bring it!


Nothin' personal SI, but no more snow for us in OK. move here from SoFL, and experience two of the worst snowstorms in OK history.

Really hoping this cool pattern shifts for the winter, for my own selfish, sensitive-to-the-cold reasons. :D
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1424. Dakster
2:51 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Nea - If only you could make that a 'sticky'...
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1423. stormpetrol
2:50 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Find that west wind out of Barbados interesting, since that graphic, they are now 23mph out of SSW.
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1422. Rmadillo
2:50 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
I am updating my season numbers:

Right two times past 0, to 14
Left past the first number, to 8
Right to 3
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1421. VR46L
2:48 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
The only slightly interesting cloud I can find

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1420. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:48 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1419. CaicosRetiredSailor
2:48 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Does anyone here have information about the lack of visible images at:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.ht ml

TIA
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1418. Bobbyweather
2:48 PM GMT on August 19, 2013

Pewa, (ex-)Unala, 92C
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1417. stormpetrol
2:47 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
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1416. VR46L
2:47 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1405. Neapolitan:
Special Guest Comment:


A rather incendiary comment IMO
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1414. LAsurvivor
2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1385. StormPro:

It will fit lol and no I'm not that way. But I do rail against injustice LMBO
Rain chance here dropped to 20% today. Hopefully that pacific moisture funnel over the gulf goes to Texas where they need it. My area, the Northshore of Lake Ponchartrain, was just on the edge of that soggy stuff all weekend.


Where do you live on the North Shore? My sister lives 3 blocks from the lake on Jackson Ave. in Mandeville and my dad lives at the Trace in Covington. Looked like ya'll got it in fits and starts over the weekend, but we didn't get a drop over here in the Baton Rouge/Denham Springs area. I'll take it. We got drowned for most of last week up until Thursday from the frontal passage. It finally has dried up around here.
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1413. csmda
2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1390. 69Viking:


I can't believe people were out there Saturday. The high never got above 77 and there was no break in the rain. It had to be cold to be out there but I guess the crazy ones still go! Sunday I thought about going out but I couldn't get a crew together to go.


I know! I guess they decided rain wasn't going to ruin their weekend. The vendors out there must be hurting. My friend's cousin is the peanut guy out there. I should have her ask him about the water change and the number of people going out there.
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1412. Rmadillo
2:43 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Rmadillo~ Posting weird acronyms that send people googling for nothing during stormy gulf times aren't really appreciated here. Spam wasn't the best choice of words there, take a break would have been better but it wasn't me that gave you your timeout...

Thanks for the clarification. I did find it odd because I did "take a break" for less than hour, then without another comment I found myself excommunicated for a 23 hour span.

So this leads me to wonder, hopefully not inappropriately so, whether Mod bans are mutually exclusive? Because I felt like I had done my hard time initially, then to re-open the wound with the 23-hour slap was very confusing to me.

I will try and limit my acronym usage in the future, but you Mods need to promise not to gang up on me!

Thanks again for the clarification.
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1411. calkevin77
2:42 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1401. RitaEvac:
Circulation? Nahhhhh



Does the clock in the upper left part of that image count as circulation?
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1410. ncstorm
2:42 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1405. Neapolitan:
Special Guest Comment:


wow..Mother Nature is technology savy..who would have thunk it?

dont she know by using a computer she is not helping her carbon footprint case..
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1409. Dakster
2:41 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1396. Grothar:
Last year on this date, yesterdays temperature was 92. And yesterday it only got to 91. I noticed a big difference.


Me too, I only got a 2nd degree burn when I touched the steering wheel.
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1408. ncstorm
2:40 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Previously posted:

US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
August 15
Wilmington smashed today's old record by five degrees for the coldest high temperature on record: 71 degrees. It's been a unseasonably cool day across both Carolinas with highs in the 70s from Charleston and Columbia to Charlotte and Raleigh. As a warm front approaches from the south this weekend expect gradually warming temperatures along with a good deal of rain.
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1407. wunderweatherman123
2:40 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
i honestly hate the SAL. i would just love to go on a plane and wash it away ^_^
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1406. Bobbyweather
2:40 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Hi everyone,
I see the Atlantic is quiet once more.
On the other hand, the Central Pacific, which is usually quiet all year long, has produced two tropical storms in a row, and a third storm might form right behind it. Both Tropical Storm Pewa and Unala have moved to the west of the International Date Line, and are the thirteenth and fourteenth tropical storm of the Western Pacific, respectively. Since they are so close together, they are experiencing the Fujiwhara effect, where Pewa is the dominant system. Pewa is expected to continue WNW-NW, becoming a typhoon during the next day or so, while Unala is predicted to degenerate into a remnant low in less than 24 hours.
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1405. Neapolitan
2:39 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Special Guest Comment:
"Hello, everyone. I've been reading some of the comments here today, and I have a few things I feel I need to say to you all.

"First, I wish to apologize that the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season hasn't thus far been as entertaining as some would like it to have been. At first, I had hoped that producing five named storms by the middle of August would be enough to make true fans of tropical weather happy, but it's clear by many of the comments here that I misjudged. Mea culpa.

"I also wish to apologize for the low body count and damage amount. I know that my tropical cyclones in this basin have thus far only managed to kill a handful of people and cause at best a few million dollars of damage. But please understand: with the floods and the heat waves and the drought and the volcanoes and that Russian meteorite and everything else, I've been very busy this year. There is, after all, only so much of me to go around. Still, I've done in several thousand people elsewhere, and destroyed billions of dollars of property; can't you guys give me at least a little credit?

"Nevertheless, I can do better. I want everyone to be aware of two things: 1) there are still 15 weeks left in this hurricane season (including the worst parts of it), and 2) the 2014 hurricane season starts in roughly 290 days. So please be patient with me; for those of you bored by this lackluster season full of nothing but weak, pathetic, and unentertaining storms, I promise death, destruction, heartbreak, and inconvenience both this fall and next year.

"Thanks for listening."

--Signed, Mother Nature
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1404. RapidInsanity
2:39 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1401. RitaEvac:
Circulation? Nahhhhh



It'll be named by noon! :)
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1403. jpsb
2:38 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1387. RitaEvac:
Cool low 70s again here again in SE TX
I have not yet used my AC here on Galveston bay. A fan in a window is fine. That is unheard of here. Right now its a cool 82 with a nice north wind blowing. Normally we are high 90's low 100s this time of year. I am not complaining :) but I do fear a brutally cold winder. Hope I'm wrong.
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1402. Bluestorm5
2:38 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1383. seer2012:

Shirt sleeve weather! 0's, teen's, 20's in your future and possible 15-18 inch spring snow. Just love that area!
Yup, it's colder than Raleigh in winter and I grew up in that kind of temperature in Missouri so it's nice to have a real winter back. Asheville averages 16 inches of snow a year which is higher than Raleigh's 5 inches, but that's not lot of snow. Asheville is inconstant with the snow. You can have 30 inches year one year and nothing the next. Campus lies in bottom of valley like rest of Asheville so mountains will have more than the city itself. We'll see.
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1401. RitaEvac
2:37 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Circulation? Nahhhhh

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1400. earthlydragonfly
2:37 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1395. SSideBrac:


By my casual estimate, the Season is not yet even officially half way over and, I for one, will certainly NOT be letting down my guard until it is really DONE.


agreed. It only takes one Charley, K-storm to really make you feel you had the worst hurricane season ever!
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1399. catastropheadjuster
2:36 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1371. GeoffreyWPB:
Please don't make me come downstairs.



Oh no Mommie Dearest, the meanest lady on earth.

So how long is the tropics gonna be quite? Doesn't it seem a little weird? I hope this isn't what they call "the quite before the storm"

sheri
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1398. Bluestorm5
2:35 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1389. FIUStormChaser:


Visted Ashville earlier this year, was advertised as a world class city with a beautiful view and beautiful mountains. The last two were correct, but the city itself was not up to its advertisement.
Same reaction as I have with the mountains, views, and city. I love the mountains and the views (see my last blog), but city is just average city but the culture is pretty different and liberal. Food is pretty good too. Interesting weather for sure here.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1397. Skyepony (Mod)
2:34 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
More of Africa being wrecked by the wave train...

Flash Flood in Nigeria on Monday, 19 August, 2013 at 06:54 (06:54 AM) UTC.
Description
Flood has affected seven local government areas of Yobe State weekend destroying over 300 houses. Leadership correspondent reports that the flood destroyed over 300 houses in seven local government areas including Potiskum, Gashu%u2019a, Nguru, Fika, Gaidam, Damagum and Damaturu, the state capital. It was gathered that the separate incidents occurred weekend following a heavy downpour which resulted in serious flooding in the seven affected local governments. Leadership gathered that in Potiskum the heavy rainfall led to the overflow of a drainage destroying about 192 houses and killing many cows and goats. However, in Gaidam the home town of the state governor, over 40 houses, farmlands and farm produce worth several millions of naira were also washed away by the flood. In Gashu%u2019a , a total of 134 houses were destroyed by the rainfall while many items were missing. In a related development, over 50 houses were destroyed by flood in three wards and villages in Nguru local government area, the residents of the area have confirmed to Leadership. Our correspondent who visited some of the affected areas, reports that in Fika, Damagum and Damaturu the state capital, many house were affected by the flood. The structures in the villages were however spared by the flood as the houses were intact. Some of the victims who spoke with Leadership complained that scores of household items were destroyed by the flood, while countless animals were killed by the flood.




Rmadillo~ Posting weird acronyms that send people googling for nothing during stormy gulf times aren't really appreciated here. Spam wasn't the best choice of words there, take a break would have been better but it wasn't me that gave you your timeout...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1396. Grothar
2:34 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Last year on this date, yesterdays temperature was 92. And yesterday it only got to 91. I noticed a big difference.
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1395. SSideBrac
2:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1328. TampaSpin:
this season is done.....;)


By my casual estimate, the Season is not yet even officially half way over and, I for one, will certainly NOT be letting down my guard until it is really DONE.
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1394. Bluestorm5
2:31 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
This is current temperature at UNC-Asheville at hall where I just took Calculus class (also where my meteorology classes are located in too).

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1393. RitaEvac
2:31 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Little more than month to go and can call it a season here in TX, Juuuuust about done
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1392. calkevin77
2:30 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1387. RitaEvac:
Cool low 70s again here again in SE TX

That's awesome. We actually got down to 64 the other night here in Austin. I did a double take. it was a little muggy but not bad at all.
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1391. MisterPerfect
2:30 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1389. FIUStormChaser:


Visted Ashville earlier this year, was advertised as a world class city with a beautiful view and beautiful mountains. The last two were correct, but the city itself was not up to its advertisement.


hehehe. Not like the shinning jewel of the world like good ole' Miami, huh?
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1390. 69Viking
2:30 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1381. csmda:


I actually saw people out at crab island both days this weekend. I live within walking distance (destin)and had to leave to do some school shopping for the kids. Even in the rain and with the water looking like a swamp, they were out there on the boats trying to have a good time, rain and all. The water hasn't been the same on crab island this year. Normally it's beautiful almost every day in the summer but I haven't really seen it look good with all this rain. The other day the water was a deep and dark blue, with a reddish color in the center. Definitely not the norm for crab island.


I can't believe people were out there Saturday. The high never got above 77 and there was no break in the rain. It had to be cold to be out there but I guess the crazy ones still go! Sunday I thought about going out but I couldn't get a crew together to go.
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1389. FIUStormChaser
2:28 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
Quoting 1359. Bluestorm5:


Here in Asheville, we struggled to get above 60s and actually had a high of 67 just few days ago. Lows were in the 50s as well. Unreal for August anywhere in North Carolian. Today, I actually gave in to hoodie because the rain were cold.


Visted Ashville earlier this year, was advertised as a world class city with a beautiful view and beautiful mountains. The last two were correct, but the city itself was not up to its advertisement.
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1388. biff4ugo
2:28 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
We had 3 sets of storms cross NE Florida yesterday and it was still hot. Not enough sun to mow the wet grass.
How can we get in on that cool Canadian air list? Then again, Idaho needs it more with the big Beaver Creek fire out there.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather