Fernand's Rains Kill 13 in Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on August 27, 2013

Tropical Storm Fernand's life as a tropical storm was brief, lasting just 15 hours at tropical storm strength on Sunday evening and Monday morning. But heavy rains from Fernand have caused the greatest death toll from a 2013 Atlantic named storm yet: thirteen people. The victims all died in in flash floods in Mexico's mountainous terrain west of Veracruz, due to landslides that came down upon houses. Fernand hit Veracruz at 12:45 am EDT Monday morning as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds, and dissipated on Monday evening. The other deaths from this year's named storms include three people killed from floods due to Tropical Storm Barry (two in Mexico and one in El Salvador), and one person killed (in the Dominican Republic) due to flooding rains from Tropical Storm Chantal.


Figure 1. Twenty four-hour rainfall amounts over Mexico ending at 8 am Monday August 26, 2013. Tropical Fernand dumped more than 150 mm (5.90") over a few isolated regions. Image credit: Conagua.


Figure 2. A man is seen outside his home, flooded by the heavy rains of tropical storm Fernand in the city of Veracruz, Veracruz State, on August 26, 2013. Mudslides crashed through several homes in eastern Mexico on Monday, killing at least 13 people. Photo credit: KORAL CARBALLO/AFP/Getty Images.

A tropical wave off the coast of Africa with potential to develop
A tropical wave that came off the coast of Africa on Sunday is located about 300 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance is moving westward at about 15 mph, has a modest amount of spin, but is relatively thin on heavy thunderstorm activity. It has not yet earned status as an area of interest ("Invest") by NHC, but they are giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday. WInd shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the disturbance, but there is an area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north that will likely interfere with development. On Wednesday, the wave will begin encountering upward-moving air from a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) that is moving eastwards across the Atlantic at 25 - 35 mph, which may aid development. The UKMET, ECMWF, and NAVGEM model all show some support for this disturbance developing in the next 4 - 7 days, and the wave could spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Sunday. There will be a trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast at the end of the week that will be capable of causing the wave to recurve and miss the Lesser Antilles, but if the disturbance stays relatively weak, it could stay on a more southerly track and impact the islands.

A tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Friday and track over the Cape Verde Islands is developed by the GFS and NAVGEM models. This wave would appear to have a high chance of recurvature, though, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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1816. LAbonbon
5:27 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1775. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I disagree it caught 92L at the beginning of the month as well as Dorian and performed well with the track of Dorian. Also it's data is derived the same way as the GFS and runs on the same grid I believe.


Caleb - didn't one of the FIMs also pick up Fernand, or am I not recalling this correctly?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1815. GatorWX
4:51 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1809. SLU:


The fact of the matter is that when the activity levels are above normal, global warming, climate change etc are blamed but when seasons like this year occur when the entire NHEM is dead quiet and well below normal, they never count against global warming and climate change. Some bit of balance should be brought into these kinds of arguments.

I'm not saying that human activities aren't affecting the world's climate but the proponents of this stuff always blow things out of proportion by labelling weather-related events like tornados, hurricanes, jet streams, droughts etc as "unprecedented" and "extreme" when the amount of data available to us with respect to the climate is highly limited relative to the very existence of our planet.


I agree with you 100%. There is enough evidence either direction and for a long time I went with the agw theory. Overall, I still do, but I've begin to question. The problem is humans have only been around to experience our current climate, more or less. With that said and with media blowing particular events out of proportion, people tend to believe what they're told without acknowledging that even the entity they're receiving their information could be wrong. Without experiencing a significant event personally, I think many find it hard to believe. Most people are quite ignorant to actuality and believe what they want to. I see many peoples' beliefs as essentially one big Pet Theory. It's hard for one to overcome this without an absolute open mind. Most people simply are unable to accomplish this however, and believe what they want as I said. As things progress, assuming they will, gradually people will begin to change their beliefs based on what's happening around them. Point is, most people have to see it for themselves to believe it. I think many people acknowledge GW is happening, but I don't think the majority even know what it means or what will be the absolute consequence. Also, people seem and are unwilling to change their way of life regardless of what they know. It may take some time for the majority of the population to truly believe what is happening. I post many articles on the weather and youtube vids regarding climate change. The only responses I get are for what will or could potentially affect them directly in the short term. Although this may be unfortunate, it is reality. I simply try to plant seeds which could stir the imagination and get people thinking. Although this may not have an immediate response or action directed because of what I say, it makes people think, even perhaps just a little. Ignorance gets us nowhere and everyone with a greater intellect should say and do everything they can to facilitate the transfer of knowledge they have for the greater good. Think outside the box and plant the seeds and great things are possible. The Greeks thought of and relayed a great deal of information, most of which is what we base our current system of science and mathematics on. With that said, humanity needs to realize more is out there, we just need to think and philosophize what could be possible rather than what we already know is.

-Josh
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1814. dflam
4:48 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
I have made an amazing observation!
I downloaded the data from NHC into R package and did a little statistical modeling.

This is the classic spread of atlantic storm distribution numbers on daily basis (day 1 is January 1) we are all familiar with.

However:

I have done the same using the ancient Babylonian calendar as is kept alive in the Jewish tradition. The calendar is a lunar calendar compensated by the solar position. The tradition is that on the new year the world is judged, and the big G sends storms and other bad things around this time. In teh ancient world this was a time when people would take a break from farming and go to the temple to pray and bring offering in hope it would appease god (or the gods if he was not monotheistic). It was also the traditional coronation day, and kings dynasty lengths were calculated on how many on these he survived.

Here is the same graph adjusted crude "yeardays" using R calculated as babylonian_month*30+babylonian_day

Day 1 is 1st of Tishray (Jewish and Babylonian New Year)



Pretty damn close!

I would think this warrants an investigation. The calendar is based on a 19 year cycle. More is here:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1813. dflam
4:48 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
I have made an amazing observation!
I downloaded the data from NHC into R package and did a little statistical modeling.

This is the classic spread of atlantic storm distribution numbers on daily basis (day 1 is January 1) we are all familiar with.

However:

I have done the same using the ancient Babylonian calendar as is kept alive in the Jewish tradition. The calendar is a lunar calendar compensated by the solar position. The tradition is that on the new year the world is judged, and the big G sends storms and other bad things around this time. In teh ancient world this was a time when people would take a break from farming and go to the temple to pray and bring offering in hope it would appease god (or the gods if he was not monotheistic). It was also the traditional coronation day, and kings dynasty lengths were calculated on how many on these he survived.

Here is the same graph adjusted crude "yeardays" using R calculated as babylonian_month*30+babylonian_day

Day 1 is 1st of Tishray (Jewish and Babylonian New Year)



Pretty damn close!

I would think this warrants an investigation. The calendar is based on a 19 year cycle. More is here:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1812. L1990
3:31 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1783. GTstormChaserCaleb:
So then why do you come on here? To track nice weather? A little mix up in the weather is a good thing, or else you will end like Texas in drought. You really want drought?


lmfao so true
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1811. dflam
2:56 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1703. SLU:


Yep. The proponents of this global warming/climate change BS are never to be seen in times like this.



Ah the beauty of the ignore button.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1810. GeorgiaStormz
2:48 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
would have been fun....fun is always in fantasy land....maybe fun is fantasy

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1809. SLU
2:43 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1738. daddyjames:


We're here - Good morning. Just too busy to respond to such a silly statement like that.


The fact of the matter is that when the activity levels are above normal, global warming, climate change etc are blamed but when seasons like this year occur when the entire NHEM is dead quiet and well below normal, they never count against global warming and climate change. Some bit of balance should be brought into these kinds of arguments.

I'm not saying that human activities aren't affecting the world's climate but the proponents of this stuff always blow things out of proportion by labelling weather-related events like tornados, hurricanes, jet streams, droughts etc as "unprecedented" and "extreme" when the amount of data available to us with respect to the climate is highly limited relative to the very existence of our planet.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1808. catastropheadjuster
2:40 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Good Morning Everyone, well from the looks of things, where gonna have a quite season, and I for one thinks everyone deserves this.

Sheri
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1807. HurrMichaelOrl
2:36 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1783. GTstormChaserCaleb:
So then why do you come on here? To track nice weather? A little mix up in the weather is a good thing, or else you will end like Texas in drought. You really want drought?


+1
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1806. ncstorm
2:35 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1796. ScottLincoln:

You're the only one twisting anything.
To use a computer model, you need to understand what it was meant for, what it's uncertainties are, and limitations on it's data and outputs. We've had this same back-and-forth with you over and over to the point where I wonder if you are even listening or are you just specifically trying to get a rise out of people and don't care to ask what you are asking?

It's not twisting one thing to use different models in different situations in different ways. One model (the hurricane models beyond 144hrs) are tasked with showing a specific storm in a specific place with a specific pressure and wind speed. Climate models (decades out) are tasked with averaging out weather conditions over years and years, providing a view of climate on the decadal or pentadal scale. If you can't understand how these usages are vastly different, then perhaps you should leave model analysis to those of us who do?


Scott..

I'm not even going to bother...go write a hydraulic report..aint that what you do?
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1805. 69Viking
2:34 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1672. weatherman994:
Anybody ready for the Winter since the tropics are boring.


I'm ready, hunting season is fast approaching so bring on the cold air to the SE! The past couple of Winters have been unseasonably warm, time for a average to below average Winter for a change!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1804. CaribBoy
2:33 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1725. prcane4you:
Have patience and seat in front of your computer the whole day waiting until any wave develops.Have a happy blob blob day.


I hope that DAY will come soon... if not I'll throw my computer out of the window and stop loving weather XD
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1803. SLU
2:32 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1733. hydrus:
Hey, did you hear that the globe is warming do to man made pollutants.? Its gonna get hot here! Heat that could scorch the Sun.!


Absolutely.
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1802. Thrawst
2:32 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1791. Bluestorm5:
I noticed my meteorology major friend in two classes looking at Weather Underground tropical storm page during Calculus and we had a laugh about especially when I told him I'm Bluestorm5 on here. He said he doesn't go through blogs but rather a tropical page so he can see invests as well. I believe I found another person who is as knowledgeable about weather as I am and he got a really neat iPad with Hurricane Sandy as background with all of these weather apps I never knew before. He explained Hurricane Sandy really well and knew what made Sandy a special storm when a low merged into a hurricane.


I saw the same thing, except the professor had the Wunderground world tropical map up lol.
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1801. HurrMichaelOrl
2:32 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1773. jayte:
its like every one on here is wishing a hurricane comes they way am wishing one does not come my way having been through Ivan and Emily within 9 months am happy that the southern Caribbean is out of danger for at least/ another 9 days


I would explain it like this (how I see it). I never want to see loss of life and destruction. But since the storms are going to happen anyway, I like to appreciate the power of mother nature (look on the bright side if you will). I get the same kind of adrenaline rush from high wind events that many get from roller coasters, sky diving, etc. It has been quite a long time since I have been able to appreciate this aspect of nature, thus my impatience.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1800. ScottLincoln
2:32 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1774. daddyjames:


The models operate on vastly different scales of resolution.

Many do, but that's really not what's important to the claim being made.

Different timescales, different input data, different output, and very different model usage.

The issue with weather forecasting model error several days out is we are looking for specific weather systems of specific strength in specific locations. We don't have the input data to allow for long forecasts of this specificity. With global climate, the specificity isn't important because it's all averaged out across the globe, and across numerous years. That's the key difference.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1799. CaribBoy
2:30 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1716. prcane4you:
Nobody pay attention to Orlando weather.


Wow... xD
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1798. Thrawst
2:30 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1797. Gearsts
2:28 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1771. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Again we are reaching the climitalogical peak of hurricane season and I am seeing patience has ran out already. Suite yourselves, but there will be storms in September, I'm confident in that. Those who are calling the season now will be highly disappointed.
Problem here is we were all saying the season was gonna get crazy by august 10 and then the 15 but the models didn't show anything and the gfs was always dropping development or pushing it back and now we are at august 28 and the atlantic looks unusually emty and dry. We may get and active september but omg it will have to be the most record breaking september so that the season can get the numbers and ACE forecasted. To me in august the pattern change or something happen that we couldn't see. But i do hope we can get something like Igor to track ots :(
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1796. ScottLincoln
2:28 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1770. ncstorm:


no..models are still models Nea..cant twist this one..the models used in GW forecasting are long range just like the models used in forecasting hurricanes which was the point..

post those pics to your statement as well because you are just throwing darts as well in forecasting events 30 years from now when we cant even forecast events 3 days out according to most bloggers..

You're the only one twisting anything.
To use a computer model, you need to understand what it was meant for, what it's uncertainties are, and limitations on it's data and outputs. We've had this same back-and-forth with you over and over to the point where I wonder if you are even listening or are you just specifically trying to get a rise out of people and don't care to ask what you are asking?

It's not twisting one thing to use different models in different situations in different ways. One model (the hurricane models beyond 144hrs) are tasked with showing a specific storm in a specific place with a specific pressure and wind speed. Climate models (decades out) are tasked with averaging out weather conditions over years and years, providing a view of climate on the decadal or pentadal scale. If you can't understand how these usages are vastly different, then perhaps you should leave model analysis to those of us who do?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1795. CaribBoy
2:27 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1717. islandgirls:


Good morning CaribBoy I see you're still stressing over present weather conditions. Lesson to be learnt: Mother Nature run "tings", "tings" don't run mother nature. HAVE PATIENCE


Lol boring weather + NOTHING AHEAD is very stressing indeed. It's Aug 28 not March 28 XD
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1794. ncstorm
2:27 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1785. StormTrackerScott:


I think people complain too much on here in general. I think some just need to step away from the computer and get a job instead of being the 47% of Americans feeding off the Government.


Scott..I'm sure a lot of people have jobs on here and if not, they are retired..LOL..I sure have one..

dont fuel the fires..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1792. ncstorm
2:24 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1774. daddyjames:


The models operate on vastly different scales of resolution.


again..that wasnt the point..the point was using models to forecast long range events..twist it, spin it, turn it however you guys want to but its just contradictory to ridicule long range models and people talk about events predicted 30 years from now by again models..

Im not going to continue the conversation..its tiring..but guess what, I will still post long range model runs..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1791. Bluestorm5
2:23 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
I noticed my meteorology major friend in two classes looking at Weather Underground tropical storm page during Calculus and we had a laugh about especially when I told him I'm Bluestorm5 on here. He said he doesn't go through blogs but rather a tropical page so he can see invests as well. I believe I found another person who is as knowledgeable about weather as I am and he got a really neat iPad with Hurricane Sandy as background with all of these weather apps I never knew before. He explained Hurricane Sandy really well and knew what made Sandy a special storm when a low merged into a hurricane.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1790. chrisdscane
2:23 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
I didnt say names Ive just heard it flying around the blog, and no lol drought sucks would kill my garden that I worked on all winter lol.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1789. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:22 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1779. chrisdscane:


It send 92l as a tropical storm into LA
It still caught the system whether it strengthened or not, that's the point I am trying to make.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1788. daddyjames
2:22 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1776. HurrMichaelOrl:


That active period did start in 1995, 18 years ago and in my opinion, may have ended within the last 5 years or so. On the other hand, the last few years have had very high numbers of named storms, most storms have just been relatively mundane.


Yes, wonder if we are in some transitionary period between the two - but I have neither the knowledge-base nor the time to look.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1787. Neapolitan
2:22 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1765. Grothar:


Don't forget, Nea. I'm one of only two people on here who can read those Runes.
Read them? I was under the impression you wrote them. In fact, I was told you're the one who came up with the idea... ;-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1786. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:22 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1785. StormTrackerScott
2:22 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1736. ncstorm:
if you dont like what people post, put them on ignore..long range models..short range models, mid range models..look dont look..its your preference and not to complain on the board..

I have been here 7 years and have never seen people complain so much about posting model runs..I know when I post them I sure dont shout to the heavens that this will happen and start evacuating..give the bloggers who do post them a break..I mean its 9:43 am where I at..its too early for rants..:)

someone tell all the weather sites to remove all model runs after (insert # because I'm not sure anymore) days because thats a big no no in weather forecasting..


I think people complain too much on here in general. I think some just need to step away from the computer and get a job instead of being the 47% of Americans feeding off the Government.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1784. Sfloridacat5
2:21 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
At least the ULL got a circle, even though its 0%.
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1783. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:21 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1777. chrisdscane:
and why are people upset at the lack of hurricanes or storms to track. Thats a good thing we just saw a little TS kill a dozen in mexico why would you want a powerfull major cane like Ive heard over the past few weaks.
So then why do you come on here? To track nice weather? A little mix up in the weather is a good thing, or else you will end like Texas in drought. You really want drought?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1782. ncstorm
2:21 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1772. Grothar:
264 hours



be careful Gro..posting long range models is frowned upon by the establishment..
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1781. hydrus
2:21 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
More rain for the S.W.U.S.?
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1780. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:21 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1772. Grothar:
264 hours

wunder wht the 360 hr is showing

lol
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1779. chrisdscane
2:20 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1775. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I disagree it caught 92L at the beginning of the month as well as Dorian and performed well with the track of Dorian. Also it's data is derived the same way as the GFS and runs on the same grid I believe.


It send 92l as a tropical storm into LA
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1778. pcola57
2:20 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1773. jayte:
its like every one on here is wishing a hurricane comes they way am wishing one does not come my way having been through Ivan and Emily within 9 months am happy that the southern Caribbean is out of danger for at least/ another 9 days


I definitely not wishing for one..
Take me out of the "everyone"..
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1777. chrisdscane
2:19 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
and why are people upset at the lack of hurricanes or storms to track. Thats a good thing we just saw a little TS kill a dozen in mexico why would you want a powerfull major cane like Ive heard over the past few weaks.
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1776. HurrMichaelOrl
2:19 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1758. daddyjames:


Ah, people think that the new normal is the unprecendented activity observed over the last decade or so. So, now a normal year is perceived as a "bust". if they were around for the 70's and 80's, like some of us unfortunately (only in regards to years accumulated) they would have a different perspective.


That active period did start in 1995, 18 years ago and in my opinion, may have ended within the last 5 years or so. On the other hand, the last few years have had very high numbers of named storms, most storms have just been relatively mundane.
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1775. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:19 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1769. chrisdscane:



why people like this model is beyond me, has preformed very poor this season, but to each his own.
I disagree it caught 92L at the beginning of the month as well as Dorian and performed well with the track of Dorian. Also it's data is derived the same way as the GFS and runs on the same grid I believe.
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1774. daddyjames
2:19 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1770. ncstorm:


no..models are still models Nea..cant twist this one..the models used in GW forecasting are long range just like the models used in forecasting hurricanes which was the point..

post those pics to your statement as well because you are just throwing darts as well in forecasting events 30 years from now when we cant even forecast events 3 days out according to most bloggers..


The models operate on vastly different scales of resolution.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1773. jayte
2:18 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
its like every one on here is wishing a hurricane comes they way am wishing one does not come my way having been through Ivan and Emily within 9 months am happy that the southern Caribbean is out of danger for at least/ another 9 days
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1772. Grothar
2:17 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
264 hours

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1771. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:17 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Again we are reaching the climitalogical peak of hurricane season and I am seeing patience has ran out already. Suite yourselves, but there will be storms in September, I'm confident in that. Those who are calling the season now will be highly disappointed.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1770. ncstorm
2:16 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1762. Neapolitan:
Yes. Mathematical models are used in many areas. But--again--weather and climate are not the same thing. Think tides (climate) and waves (weather). Mathematical modeling can tell us precisely what time high tide will arrive on Miami Beach on a specific day in June 300 years from now--but not even the efforts of every supercomputer in the world crunching away can tell us how high a wave that comes to shore there two minutes from now will be.

Hope that helps. ;-)


no..models are still models Nea..cant twist this one..the models used in GW forecasting are long range just like the models used in forecasting hurricanes which was the point..

post those pics to your statement as well because you are just throwing darts as well in forecasting events 30 years from now when we cant even forecast events 3 days out according to most bloggers..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1769. chrisdscane
2:16 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1757. GTstormChaserCaleb:
FIM-9 still likes the CATL wave.




why people like this model is beyond me, has preformed very poor this season, but to each his own.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1768. earthlydragonfly
2:16 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1747. Neapolitan:
For those insistent on putting faith in forecast models beyond 144 hours, I've compiled a list of other tools with roughly the same accuracy rate:

darts
runes
tarot
crystal ball
tea leaves
ouija


Close in accuracy but I would change only one thing..... Put a blind fold on the person playing darts.. That would be more accurate of a description.. LOL
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1767. Gearsts
2:15 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Quoting 1646. Relix:
I am usually patient but at this moment this is getting frustrating. I'd understand if it was called to be a slow season but this was supposed to be another mega hyperactive season. I know, I know we are ahead... but September isn't really looking all that hot with the dry air. Where's the MJO right now? I hopefully will eat crow come October.
We aren't ahead with ace or hurricanes or the start of cape-verde season or anything at all.
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1766. Grothar
2:15 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Our rain gauge read 1" since this morning. Very heavy rains along the Broward and Dade coasts.

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather