97L Growing More Organized in Western Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:49 PM GMT on October 01, 2013

A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Kingston, Jamaica picked up 2.60" of rain on Monday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased in intensity and organization Tuesday morning. The broad area of spin associated with 97L is growing more defined, and the storm is taking advantage of wind shear that has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as well as an upper-air anticyclone that has set up over the storm, providing good ventilation aloft. Dry air covers the Northwest Caribbean, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). A hurricane hunter flight scheduled for Tuesday afternoon was cancelled due to 97L's lack of organization, and has been rescheduled for Wednesday.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
WInd shear is expected to remain low to moderate through Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The lack of wind shear on Tuesday and Wednesday should allow 97L to moisten the atmosphere and wall off the dry air to its northwest that is slowing down development, and I expect 97L will be close to tropical depression status by Wednesday morning. By Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 4 - 8" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier and wind shear will increase as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and these combined effects will likely retard development. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle, while the European model is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. Neither model shows 97L developing tropical storm-force winds. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 30%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 40% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Friday night, a 10% chance it will be stronger, and a 50% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Jerry, taken at 10:30 am EDT on October 1, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry formed on Monday in the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is the tenth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and arrived twenty days before the usual appearance of the season's tenth named storm, which is October 19. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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1424. TylerStanfield
3:27 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1423. seer2012
2:50 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1368. myway:
Please stop the political BS.
We finally have a tropical system to argue about.

Yea, agw would be a better topic than the political stuff!
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1422. Seflhurricane
2:02 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
When is recon departing
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1421. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:01 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1417. GatorWX:


The two energies would have to split. The llc is quite clearly down on the sw corner of convection, whether closed off or not. I'll say that it looks like an elongated low (ssw-nne). It's not stacked at all right now. As it did last night when I looked, lower convergence is strong under mid level center.

That would be correct Gator.



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1420. Patrap
1:59 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1419. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1418. TampaSpin
1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
WOW....all systems are go except the Shear on 97L ....it has very strong Convergence, very strong Divergence and good 850mb Vorticity......this will be a Tropical Depression within the next 36hrs sooner than later IMO!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1417. GatorWX
1:56 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1408. LargoFl:
I just hope it doesnt fool everyone and jump over the tip of cuba.


The two energies would have to split. The llc is quite clearly down on the sw corner of convection, whether closed off or not. I'll say that it looks like an elongated low (ssw-nne). It's not stacked at all right now. As it did last night when I looked, lower convergence is strong under mid level center.

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1416. Patrap
1:55 PM GMT on October 02, 2013


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1415. LAsurvivor
1:55 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1361. StormTrackerScott:
Once recon gets to 97L then expect a renumber with 97L as we do have a closed COC.



Would you please re-post your sat image and circle the darn thing (the COC), because I don't see it. Not that I am an expert or anything. All I see is a blob of clouds similar to many we have seen in that area. In fact, there's a blob that looks similar to it, only smaller, over South Louisiana and no one here is predicting it to become anything of interest.

I just don't get where you are pulling all of these predictions from. There is a huge cold front coming Saturday that will probably kill the development and push it off to the east. That's what the local mets here are predicting. If the NHC doesn't send reconnaissance into the system, we won't be able to really know exactly what, if anything, is developing just from sat loops and radar. It looks the same to me as it did two days ago, just with more heavy clouds. With the sequester and now a government shutdown, who knows when that will be. Haven't been really impressed with the NHC's grasping at straws this season anyway.
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1414. redwagon
1:55 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1393. FOREX:


I see a lot of convection but no spin.


Convection + no circulation = drift. Ensembles are more or less back on the same page, unlike the schism we saw last night.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1413. superpete
1:53 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
We are in the heavy stuff now..LOL
feeling some wind gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range here near the south coast of G.C.
Todays garden upgrade job in a temporary holding pattern...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1412. pcola57
1:52 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Good Morning All..

Current Jet Stream Analysis..





Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1411. GatorWX
1:52 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1401. cat6band:



Seems as though the moisture field is making the dry air "get out of dodge".....


All wind shear is out the west (wsw-wnw and will be increasing. WV loops can be misleading sometimes. Notice how the western edge of the moisture envelope looks like it's butted up against a wall?

And there's a weak upper level cyclonic spin immediately to the nw,



Look at my post on the last page in reference to shear.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1410. RTLSNK
1:51 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1403. Tazmanian:




sure here is rule 11 Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic



so there for we can talk about Political and since Political have some in to do with the weather with the goverment shut down we can talk about it


so what if dr m dos a blog about the govrment shut down you going too ban evere one for talking about Political?? with the blog topic being about the goverment shut down and how its efficing noaa wish is all so about weather



some of you modes need too light in up 97L is nothing more insvet right now


I am referring to that rule Taz. I am talking about
political comments that "DON'T" refer to Science.
But thank you for your help.
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1409. weathers4me
1:50 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
I'm not seeing any Westward movement at this time. I feel the models will be trending more East as we go forward in time. IMO.
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1408. LargoFl
1:49 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1405. GatorWX:
It has slowly organized over the last few days, but I'm afraid it's running out of time before encountering land. The Yucatan isn't horribly detrimental to a developing cyclone, as opposed to a mountainous land mass, but conditions aren't going to be as favorable on the other side, wherever it pops off.



I'll say it's perhaps 50% 48hrs, 60% 120hrs.
I just hope it doesnt fool everyone and jump over the tip of cuba.
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1407. TampaSpin
1:49 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1382. congaline:
I think the models are wrong. This is a SW coast Fl storm. I am guessing Tampa or South, Sarasota area?.... models will continue to correct to the East.


You could be correct.....if 97L is slower than predicted now to advance into the GOM then you would be correct.
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1406. LargoFl
1:48 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS COULD AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER PASCH

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1405. GatorWX
1:48 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
It has slowly organized over the last few days, but I'm afraid it's running out of time before encountering land. The Yucatan isn't horribly detrimental to a developing cyclone, as opposed to a mountainous land mass, but conditions aren't going to be as favorable on the other side, wherever it pops off.



I'll say it's perhaps 50% 48hrs, 60% 120hrs.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1404. opal92nwf
1:48 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Wow, woke up and didn't expect to see this!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1403. Tazmanian
1:46 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1395. RTLSNK:


No political comments, no personal attacks, simple.
Please re-read the rules, and follow them, simple.
Thanks.




sure here is rule 11 Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic



so there for we can talk about Political and since Political have some in to do with the weather with the goverment shut down we can talk about it


so what if dr m dos a blog about the govrment shut down you going too ban evere one for talking about Political?? with the blog topic being about the goverment shut down and how its efficing noaa wish is all so about weather



some of you modes need too light in up 97L is nothing more insvet right now
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1402. LargoFl
1:46 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Local met upped tampa bays rain chances for the weekend...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1401. cat6band
1:45 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1398. GatorWX:
We'll see.




Seems as though the moisture field is making the dry air "get out of dodge".....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1400. HurricaneAndre
1:44 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Aircraft leaves in an hour.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1399. LargoFl
1:43 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1398. GatorWX
1:42 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
We'll see.

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1397. islander101010
1:40 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
yes the old hebert box #2 it is oct.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1396. Torito
1:40 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1374. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Out of town today but still have internet access. Basically, per NHC, a 50/50 chance of a low grade tropical storm over the next 5 days, facing dry air and sheer in the Gulf, and a definite rain event for someone on the Northern Gulf coast going into the late weekend or Monday time frame.

As I mentioned yesterday, I believe that the only potential game changer would be if the system were able to reach TD or Storm status before reaching the Yucatan before facing some limiting conditions in the Gulf.

Now we just have to watch and wait to see if can defy a few odds and pull a fast one over the next 24 hours..........Flip a coin.


So the odds are in the system's favor, it appears..


You flipped 1 coin of type US 1935 Buffalo Nickel:



Timestamp: 2013-10-02 13:39:39 UTC

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1395. RTLSNK
1:40 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1308. RTLSNK:


Personal attacks can be added to this advice.
Talk about the weather and not each other.
No other warning will be given. Thanks.


No political comments, no personal attacks, simple.
Please re-read the rules, and follow them, simple.
Thanks.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1394. MississippiWx
1:39 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1355. StormTrackerScott:


No really. I mean I have been saying this all morning. Expect Karen this afternoon or tonight. Also you have not been right about 97L at all so don't kid yourself as you said the Dry air in the NW Caribbean would still be there when I tried to tell you it would get pushed over into the BOC which has happened Also I said yesterday we would have Karen today I did say however I thought 97L would be a TD on Tuesday night.



By the way, this is what I said about the "dry air in the NW Caribbean"...

Quoting 383. MississippiWx:

97L is very broad for now without even anything close to a closed circulation. There will be no "quick spin-up" for a while. To quickly spin up, it would need deep convection to persist on the western portion of the axis as well to help consolidate low pressure. This is not going to happen for a while thanks to the desert-like airmass in the NW Caribbean.


This was posted 2 days ago, btw. Nothing about it "staying there" or preventing development altogether. Just that it would keep it from "quickly spinning up" like you have been claiming all along. Now, there's my evidence.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1393. FOREX
1:38 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1389. KORBIN:
I am looking at the models and i feel a bit uneasy about this storm. It looks much strong this morning then last and will soon be a TD or TS.

When we have models how often does the initial few runs are actually correct with landfall?
It seem that more times than not Florida is in the cross hairs then it goes else where. I think everyone from Mexico to Fl should keep an eye on this one.


I see a lot of convection but no spin.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1392. GatorWX
1:38 PM GMT on October 02, 2013


Mid level:

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1391. LargoFl
1:38 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
At 1200 UTC, 02 October 2013, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL97) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 18.1°N and 85.3°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 8 kt at a bearing of 300 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1390. GatorWX
1:36 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
At least the Atlantic resembles hurricane season!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1389. KORBIN
1:36 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
I am looking at the models and i feel a bit uneasy about this storm. It looks much strong this morning then last and will soon be a TD or TS.

When we have models how often does the initial few runs are actually correct with landfall?
It seem that more times than not Florida is in the cross hairs then it goes else where. I think everyone from Mexico to Fl should keep an eye on this one.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1388. islander101010
1:35 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
things can change. lots of variables land interaction could be in 97s near future no heberts box ideas
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1387. GatorWX
1:35 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1361. StormTrackerScott:
Once recon gets to 97L then expect a renumber with 97L as we do have a closed COC.



If we do, it's likely that it's tracking wnw towards the center of the Yucatan with the mid level energy having a more northward component towards the eastern gom.



Good luck to you 97L! It's not going to be particularly easy to get going once in the gom and I believe it's going to have a much better chance if it can develop, at least some, before crossing the Yucatan.

Elsewhere,

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1386. LargoFl
1:35 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Ukmet..................
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1385. LargoFl
1:33 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1382. congaline:
I think the models are wrong. This is a SW coast Fl storm. I am guessing Tampa or South, Sarasota area?.... models will continue to correct to the East.
thats what I am watching out for..Bams model has said a right hand turn all along..who know..we'll see in a couple of days..still early yet.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1384. Torito
1:32 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1383. weathermanwannabe:


We don't know how it will turn out at this point but that is a reasonable guess considering the dry air, sheer, and moderate temps in the Gulf with no warm pools out there.


dry air seems to be moving out now, however...

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1383. weathermanwannabe
1:31 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1379. FOREX:


I'm sticking with my forecast of it becoming and staying a depression with no further strenghthening.


We don't know how it will turn out at this point but that is a reasonable guess considering the dry air, sheer, and moderate temps in the Gulf with no warm pools out there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1382. congaline
1:30 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
I think the models are wrong. This is a SW coast Fl storm. I am guessing Tampa or South, Sarasota area?.... models will continue to correct to the East.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1381. MahFL
1:30 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1368. myway:
Please stop the political BS.
We finally have a tropical system to argue about.


Not yet....it's just an invest right now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1380. Tazmanian
1:29 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
may i re mind you guys of rule #11 Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1379. FOREX
1:29 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1374. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Out of town today but still have internet access. Basically, per NHC, a 50/50 chance of a low grade tropical storm over the next 5 days, facing dry air and sheer in the Gulf, and a definite rain event for someone on the Northern Gulf coast going into the late weekend or Monday time frame.

As I mentioned yesterday, I believe that the only potential game changer would be if the system were able to reach TD or Storm status before reaching the Yucatan before facing some limiting conditions in the Gulf.

Now we just have to watch and wait to see if can defy a few odds and pull a fast one over the next 24 hours..........Flip a coin.


I'm sticking with my forecast of it becoming and staying a depression with no further strenghthening.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1378. cat6band
1:28 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1355. StormTrackerScott:


No really. I mean I have been saying this all morning. Expect Karen this afternoon or tonight. Also you have not been right about 97L at all so don't kid yourself as you said the Dry air in the NW Caribbean would still be there when I tried to tell you it would get pushed over into the BOC which has happened Also I said yesterday we would have Karen today I did say however I thought 97L would be a TD on Tuesday night.



Scott, please don't pretend you were right and Mississippi was wrong....I have followed both of your comments since yesterday, you said we'd have a TD already. You also said the COC was N and E of it's current location, and you also said it was moving N.....None of which has come to past...stop beating your chest and wishing it somewhere it's not going. You do have some great posts (sometimes)...it isn't about who's right or who's wrong....we're all gonna be wrong at some point...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1377. LargoFl
1:27 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1371. HCW:



You really need to look into buying a digital scanner :)
yeah would have been great listening in..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1376. Llamaluvr
1:27 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1361. StormTrackerScott:
Once recon gets to 97L then expect a renumber with 97L as we do have a closed COC.

I think we all need to take a moment and recognize Stormtrackerscott's brilliant analysis. He has been consistently magnificent the entire season.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1375. congaline
1:27 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1359. CJ5:

Shush we've all had enough.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1374. weathermanwannabe
1:26 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Good Morning. Out of town today but still have internet access. Basically, per NHC, a 50/50 chance of a low grade tropical storm over the next 5 days, facing dry air and sheer in the Gulf, and a definite rain event for someone on the Northern Gulf coast going into the late weekend or Monday time frame.

As I mentioned yesterday, I believe that the only potential game changer would be if the system were able to reach TD or Storm status before reaching the Yucatan before facing some limiting conditions in the Gulf.

Now we just have to watch and wait to see if can defy a few odds and pull a fast one over the next 24 hours..........Flip a coin.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather