Karen Weakens Significantly; 4 Feet of Snow in South Dakota; 18 Tornadoes in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:57 PM GMT on October 05, 2013

Tropical Storm Karen has weakened to a minimal-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds as it heads towards landfall in Southeast Louisiana. Karen continues to struggle with high wind shear of 25 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the west. These winds have driven dry air from the Western Gulf of Mexico into Karen's core, making it difficult for heavy thunderstorms to build on the west and south sides of Karen's center of circulation. Satellite loops show the classic appearance of a sheared storm, with the low level center exposed to view, and the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side by the high shear. A spiral band on the north side of Karen's center of circulation moved over Southern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama Friday afternoon, bringing a few scattered areas of 1" of rain. Long-range radar out of New Orleans shows a few thunderstorms over land, with the bulk of Karen's rain offshore. Karen brought a storm surge of up to 1.6' above normal along the Louisiana and Mississippi coast Saturday morning, as seen on our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Karen, taken at approximately 12:30 pm EDT on October 5, 2013. At the time, Karen had top winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Karen
The computer models have come into good agreement on the track of Karen, with the storm expected to make landfall in Southeast Louisiana and pass near or to the south of New Orleans early Sunday morning. With wind shear showing no signs of letting up, any strengthening of Karen on Saturday will be slow, and it is more likely that the storm will weaken to a tropical depression with 35 mph winds before landfall. NHC's 11 am EDT Saturday wind probability forecast shows the highest odds of tropical storm-force winds to be at the tip of the Mississippi River at Buras, Louisiana: 47%. New Orleans has a 38% chance, and the rest of the coast from Mississippi to Pensacola, Florida has odds ranging from 20% - 30%. Karen should cause mostly minor damage at landfall, with flooding rains, storm surge, and a few weak tornadoes of concern.


Figure 2. iWitness Anne Zollinger captured this photo of snow accumulation in Wright, WY on October 4, 2013.


Figure 3. Radar reflectivity image of the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the tornado that hit Wayne, Nebraska (marked by the circle with "+" symbol in it.)

A blizzard and a severe weather outbreak in the Midwest
A storm far more intense and dangerous than Tropical Storm Karen is Winter Storm Atlas, which continues to pound the Midwest with a variety of extreme weather today. Blizzard conditions enveloped much of Wyoming and South Dakota on Friday, with an astonishing 48" (4 feet!) of snow falling in Deadwood, South Dakota. Check out this amazing photo of the snow there. The 43.5" of snow that fell in Lead, South Dakota was that city's fourth heaviest snowfall on record. In Rapid City, South Dakota, the airport recorded thundersnow and sustained winds of 44 mph, gusting to 55 mph at 4 pm Friday, before communication were lost. The snow tally so far in the city is 18.3", making it the sixth largest snowfall in recorded history. Casper, Wyoming received 16.2" of snow, their tenth greatest snow storm in recorded history. The storm brought a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms with very large hail and eighteen preliminary reports of tornadoes, with the most damaging tornado hitting Wayne, Nebraska on Friday afternoon near 5:30 pm CDT, causing millions in damage, and injuring fifteen people. The severe weather threat is much less for Saturday and Sunday, with only a "slight" risk of severe weather being predicted by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has done some research to see the last time a blizzard, major severe weather outbreak, tropical storm, and extreme fire danger all threatened the U.S. at the same time, and has not been able to find such an event in past history, as detailed in his latest blog post.

Extremely critical fire threat continues for Southern California
A Santa Ana wind event is in its second day over Southern California in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, where numerous locations saw wind gusts in excess of 60 mph on Friday. The top wind gust was 75 mph in Santa Paula at 4:45 am Saturday, October 5; the Naval Air Station Point Muga had a gust of 74 mph at 1:54 am Saturday. Strong wind gusts of up to 60 mph, combined with humidity levels of 5 - 10%, will make for extremely critical fire conditions again on Saturday afternoon. Fortunately, no fires were sparked on Friday. Let's keep it that way on Saturday!

I'll have a new post Sunday.

Jeff Masters

TORNADO WARNED (idzrvit)
Drove up to my target area in Fairbury, Nebraska and watched this storm develop and eventually drop a tornado in Palmyra. Think chasing tornadoes is dangerous during the day? Try one at night! This was absolutely crazy! I also chased Friday in Nebraska and Iowa. I'm extremely tired......
TORNADO WARNED
Karen's Sunrise (OLD5ANDIMER)
Tropical storm Karen has far reaching outer bands giving us a brilliant Sunrise in SW FL.
Karen's Sunrise
Crazy Storm Cells and Shadows at Sunset (BEME)
Storms brewing in the afternoon,made for some spectacular sky viewing..this storm cell quickly moved north-northeast,with a possible tornado outside of Essex,[Ia] a few miles northeast of this location...So,,we got to watch it all form. Cells to the east-southeast also formed along the line...some hail cells apparently in the area as well...we did not have any severe weather,even though they sounded the siren,,funny enough,,nothing was going on in Shenandoah.a few drops of rain,and lightning
Crazy Storm Cells and Shadows at Sunset
Silos (LarryD)
We had a
Silos
Dome (LarryD)
This is a view of the Desert Dome at the Henry Doorly zoo looking SE. You see the back side of a thunderstorm in Iowa.
Dome
Storm Brewin (ruralartist)
Thunderheads growing quickly again tonight headed up the Missouri Valley.
Storm Brewin

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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1133. hurricanes2018
12:04 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
YELLOW AT 10% IS NEW
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1132. guygee
5:15 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1126. sar2401:

No, you're making an assumption that can't be proven. You should know this! You have absolutely no idea if, using samples from the last 10 centuries would improve our forecasting or not. One of the ways to smooth out chaos is to use the largest sample size available. Saying that having more sample available would make things worse is totally nonsensical from a statistical point of view. Again, my issue is not that we understand general climate for the past 10,000 years. We do. We do not, and can not, with our present level of knowledge, know if any particular time period within that 10,000 years had many, a few, or no periods when we had many more or many fewer hurricanes in a season than we have now. We also don't know the absolute limit in size of a hurricane can attain. We make a lot of assumptions, based on a lot of other assumptions, but we don't know.

My minor was in stat, and I spent a lot of hours sitting in class with professors teaching me all this. I'll be happy to have a discussion with you, but my years listening to professors lecture me ended about 30 years ago.
You are completely ignoring the well-developed scientific field of paleoclimatology. With your reasoning we have almost no evidence of evolution in higher animals either. Are you a creationist too?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1131. PedleyCA
5:01 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Riverside, Jurupa Valley, CA (Indian Hills), Jurupa Valley, California (PWS)
Updated: 9:57 AM PDT on October 06, 2013
Clear
73.4 °F
Clear
Humidity: 14%
Dew Point: 20 °F

Wind: 1.3 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 2.4 mph
Pressure: 30.07 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 74 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 3.0 out of 16
Pollen: 5.30 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1000 ft

Still dry here....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1130. BrickellBreeze
4:14 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1129. Dakster
3:54 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1128. 12george1:

What record(s) did this season break?


Shortest tempers of wunderbloggers.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1128. 12george1
3:49 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1089. SLU:
A record breaking season for all the right (wrong) reasons.


What record(s) did this season break?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1127. Doppler22
3:37 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1126. sar2401
3:35 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting guygee:
Outside of well-understood natural variations largely due to the ENSO pseudo-oscillations, there is a large amount of temporal correlation in the climate system: 1)Milankovitch orbital cycles that have caused the largest changes in long-term climate are on the order of tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of years, 2)discounting the predictable effects of large volcanic eruptions, the variance of solar power flux at the surface of the earth has not varied by more than a couple tenths of one percent over the last one thousand years, 3)the oceans by far store most of the energy available in the climate system.

The only reason not to trust over one hundred years of sampling is that we are beginning to change the climate more quickly due to our large population and resulting large additions to the greenhouse gas inventory of the atmosphere.

For this very same reason if we took samples far back into another age of the climate, say the Mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum, we would sampling from a different population.

Climate change is a non-stationary process. If you have even the smallest knowledge of statistics this should be obvious. It is also a chaotic process. So having many older samples would be misleading, sampling from other underlying populations that no longer have any relevance to today's climate. You should know this!

No, you're making an assumption that can't be proven. You should know this! You have absolutely no idea if, using samples from the last 10 centuries would improve our forecasting or not. One of the ways to smooth out chaos is to use the largest sample size available. Saying that having more sample available would make things worse is totally nonsensical from a statistical point of view. Again, my issue is not that we understand general climate for the past 10,000 years. We do. We do not, and can not, with our present level of knowledge, know if any particular time period within that 10,000 years had many, a few, or no periods when we had many more or many fewer hurricanes in a season than we have now. We also don't know the absolute limit in size of a hurricane can attain. We make a lot of assumptions, based on a lot of other assumptions, but we don't know.

My minor was in stat, and I spent a lot of hours sitting in class with professors teaching me all this. I'll be happy to have a discussion with you, but my years listening to professors lecture me ended about 30 years ago.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1125. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:34 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1124. washingtonian115
3:32 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1121. Tazmanian:



Winter has not even started yet
But I don't expect much from it like the last few winters.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1123. Patrap
3:31 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Houston 59 F

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1122. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:28 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1121. Tazmanian
3:27 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1117. washingtonian115:
I suspect this winter will be a bust again.I'm not even looking forward to it.Just bring on spring...Hurricane season for me has ended...



Winter has not even started yet
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1120. guygee
3:27 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1119. sar2401:
I'm more than a little surprised that the NHC declared Karen a remnant low as quickly as it did. It still has winds of 30 mph, there is still a poorly defined but existent center, and it's still maintaining its identify. This is part of the definition of a TD, and I've seen a lot worse classified as a TD. I realize it's not going to undergo a miraculous rebirth, but I guess I would have waited for it to either get on the coast or have the front a lot closer. It's almost like the forecasts for Karen were so bad that the NHC would like to round file this one ASAP. It's like having a crazy aunt come to visit. A day or two is OK, but, after that, you start easing her out the door. :-)
LOL, I agree with this one.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1119. sar2401
3:24 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
I'm more than a little surprised that the NHC declared Karen a remnant low as quickly as it did. It still has winds of 30 mph, there is still a poorly defined but existent center, and it's still maintaining its identify. This is part of the definition of a TD, and I've seen a lot worse classified as a TD. I realize it's not going to undergo a miraculous rebirth, but I guess I would have waited for it to either get on the coast or have the front a lot closer. It's almost like the forecasts for Karen were so bad that the NHC would like to round file this one ASAP. It's like having a crazy aunt come to visit. A day or two is OK, but, after that, you start easing her out the door. :-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1118. guygee
3:23 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1095. sar2401:

Yes, but you're apparently confused on what I wrote. It's certainly possible to make forecasts based on things we know for sure have happened since 1800, like multi-decadal active and inactive seasons. It is not possible to make accurate predictions about how many storms an "average" season has when we have no clue about an "average" season before 1800. Unless you believe we have seen every permutation of both hurricanes and hurricane seasons since 1800, it's a well accepted principle of statistics that making extrapolations from extremely small sample sizes is always going to produce errors. We just don't know either the type or magnitude of the errors because they haven't happened to us yet. If you can refute that using statistical evidence, I'm all ears.
Outside of well-understood natural variations largely due to the ENSO pseudo-oscillations, there is a large amount of temporal correlation in the climate system: 1)Milankovitch orbital cycles that have caused the largest changes in long-term climate are on the order of tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of years, 2)discounting the predictable effects of large volcanic eruptions, the variance of solar power flux at the surface of the earth has not changed by more than a couple tenths of one percent over the last one thousand years, 3)the oceans by far store most of the energy available in the climate system.

The only reason not to trust over one hundred years of sampling is that we are beginning to change the climate more quickly due to our large population and resulting large additions to the greenhouse gas inventory of the atmosphere.

For this very same reason if we took samples far back into another age of the climate, say the Mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum, we would sampling from a different population.

Climate change is a non-stationary process. If you have even the smallest knowledge of statistics this should be obvious. It is also a chaotic process. So having many older samples would be misleading, sampling from other underlying populations that no longer have any relevance to today's climate. You should know this!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1117. washingtonian115
3:20 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
I suspect this winter will be a bust again.I'm not even looking forward to it.Just bring on spring...Hurricane season for me has ended...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1116. Naga5000
3:19 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1106. tramp96:

Damn GW is giving us record snow in the first part of Oct. If GW keeps going like this we will be skiing in July.


I'm pretty sure you don't understand what you are saying. Weather is not climate, regional is not global, so on and so on. Take your false equivalency somewhere else.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1115. sar2401
3:17 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting FOREX:


What's left of the circulation does seem to be moving ESE, not East.

The NHC doesn't agree, and, frankly, the elongated kind of center is so diffuse that the only thing I'm sure of is that it's not headed west. ;-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1114. SLU
3:15 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1102. allancalderini:
It might develop but into another td or weak ts.


Quoting 1107. BahaHurican:
Models r suggesting this will stay quite low as it crosses the ATL... just about the only scenario where it would stand a chance of making it to TS. But we have at least 5 days before we can seriously consider this a contender at all.


For and shot at development it has to be south of 15 - 17 north by the time it gets to 50 west. Anything higher up and cooler SSTs, shear and dry air will kill it ... like it did Dorian and Erin and Humberto and Jerry and ...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1113. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:12 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
This most likely will be our last Cape-Verde storm of the season. After that focus will once again need to be shifted to the Caribbean.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1112. RufusBaker
3:12 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
And Karen was supposed to be a cat 1 hurricance now JEEEEZ!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1111. BahaHurican
3:10 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1110. CaribBoy:


Thanks for the picture (is it in the N Bahamas ?) :-) Great weather indeed, same as ours for the past few weeks.

Right now it looks like some thunderstorms are trying to build to our east (Barbuda), will see if they finally reach us later this afternoon. Would be nice, but........ there is a huge difference between wishes and reality lol, especially this year.

I'm going to the beach now... see you later...


(Looking North)
Have fun! The photo is of NW New Providence, not too far from the airport. I may go out there later, though I don't know about actually getting wet...

lol

And maybe those clouds will move WEST they way they are supposed to....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1110. CaribBoy
3:08 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1092. BahaHurican:
@ Caribboy...



This was Friday... but the wx has been pretty much like this most of the last week. This is the first week since July that it hasn't rained heavily here at least some part of every single day.

So maybe u guys will get some rain... soon...


Thanks for the picture (is it in the N Bahamas ?) :-) Great weather indeed, same as ours for the past few weeks.

Right now it looks like some thunderstorms are trying to build to our east (Barbuda), will see if they finally reach us later this afternoon. Would be nice, but........ there is a huge difference between wishes and reality lol, especially this year.

I'm going to the beach now... see you later...


(Looking North)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1109. BahaHurican
3:07 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1106. tramp96:

Damn GW is giving us record snow in the first part of Oct. If GW keeps going like this we will be skiing in July.
And going to the beach in January.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1108. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:07 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1073. sar2401:

That's my belief. These active periods average about 20 years. 1995 to 2012 isn't all that far off the average. These multi-decadal active periods also tend to have their most active seasons about in the middle of the cycle, and 2004-2005 are also in the right time period. Most weather is characterized by persistence. During the height of the last active period, it wasn't hard to forecast that the next year would be much higher than average. If 2014 turns out to be average or below average, I think it will be pretty certain we will be headed into the next quiet multi-decadal period.
Good morning everyone...I agree with you SAR, furthermore the active period that started in 1995 actually began active in both 1995 and 1996. 2004 and 2005 were the middle part of the period and was active, and If I'm not mistaken 2010-2012 saw a record for amount of storms in a 3 year span. So I guess what I'm trying to say is you start with a bang and end with a bang. We will see as time passes on though if we are both correct in that we are entering a quiet multi-decadal cycle, the next 2 seasons should be enough to determine that, if we don't get an El-Nino and things stay quiet that will be your indicator.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1107. BahaHurican
3:06 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1094. SLU:


The tropical season is done. The wave in the EATL probably won't develop given the stable air in the CATL graveyard. Look for the models to drop this system in the next couple of days once they begin to resolve the poor thermodynamic environment better.

Models r suggesting this will stay quite low as it crosses the ATL... just about the only scenario where it would stand a chance of making it to TS. But we have at least 5 days before we can seriously consider this a contender at all.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1105. FOREX
3:06 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1091. sar2401:

WKC, assuming you missed it, the NHC just declared Karen a remnant low. As I said, I'm not sure it has an LLC, more like a collection of blobs. The NHC says the remnant is headed east at 11 mph, so whatever is left may very well make its only landfall somewhere around the Big Bend area of Florida. I said this yesterday also and many people thought I was nuts.

What is it with you and the name calling? You really do have a bias for storms to head for the Caymans, just like saying a storm that's clearly headed east, and about to become a remnant low, is headed ESE and forming a new LLC. You open yourself up for some ribbing when you keep doing this. Just stick to forecasting what's really happening, not what you'd like to see happen.


What's left of the circulation does seem to be moving ESE, not East.
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1104. matilda101
3:04 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
This Blog will die off just like Karen did, now that it just remnants that we will be watching.
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1103. BahaHurican
3:04 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1099. ScottLincoln:

The GFS isn't just used for hurricane season. It is used for forecasts nationwide, every day of the year. If someone is going to argue that it shouldn't be updated during hurricane season because it is a bad time, the question then is, what is a "good time?" Severe weather season for the plains? Winter storm season for the northeast?

The answer is probably closer to "there isn't a good time" and it should be updated as soon as reasonably possible if updates are necessary.
I hypothesize that the models underperformed because this was an anomalous season where signals were overlooked or misinterpreted. Just like 2005, I think this is going to be a teaching season for tropical forecasting.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1102. allancalderini
3:02 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1094. SLU:


The tropical season is done. The wave in the EATL probably won't develop given the stable air in the CATL graveyard. Look for the models to drop this system in the next couple of days once they begin to resolve the poor thermodynamic environment better.

It might develop but into another td or weak ts.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1101. islander101010
3:02 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
bonnie knocked down a few garbage cans in miami lets see what ex karen will do.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1100. matilda101
3:00 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
I think if history is any indication Florida will have one more threat before the 20th and if we can get thru that I believe the US can rest easy for another season.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1099. ScottLincoln
2:59 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1056. sar2401:

Not unless hurricane models produce revenue that was stolen. The GFS, for example, worked fine last year. This year, they "upgraded the model" and switched it over to a new supercomputer right in the middle of hurricane season. Anyone who has worked with networks know it's a bad idea to switch a critical program to a new platform at a critical time. Money is not the issue, or at least not any more than no one ever has all the money they want, but competence is most certainly an issue.

The GFS isn't just used for hurricane season. It is used for forecasts nationwide, every day of the year. If someone is going to argue that it shouldn't be updated during hurricane season because it is a bad time, the question then is, what is a "good time?" Severe weather season for the plains? Winter storm season for the northeast?

The answer is probably closer to "there isn't a good time" and it should be updated as soon as reasonably possible if updates are necessary.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1098. FunnelVortex
2:58 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Karen busted badly and was upstaged by a winter storm.

I shouldn't have been surprised. This is 2013.
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1097. HurriHistory
2:58 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Tropical Storm Karen R.I.P. Another one bites the dust!
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1096. matilda101
2:56 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
I think the remnants of Karen will increase the rain threat for the entire state of Florida thru at least tomorrow. This will be most felt on the west coast later today and tonight.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1095. sar2401
2:56 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting guygee:
Was it only yesterday you were saying the historical period since the 1800's was an insufficient sample for scientists to make judgements? Now one or two years is enough for you? Wrong on both counts.

Yes, but you're apparently confused on what I wrote. It's certainly possible to make forecasts based on things we know for sure have happened since 1800, like multi-decadal active and inactive seasons. It is not possible to make accurate predictions about how many storms an "average" season has when we have no clue about an "average" season before 1800. Unless you believe we have seen every permutation of both hurricanes and hurricane seasons since 1800, it's a well accepted principle of statistics that making extrapolations from extremely small sample sizes is always going to produce errors. We just don't know either the type or magnitude of the errors because they haven't happened to us yet. If you can refute that using statistical evidence, I'm all ears.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1094. SLU
2:51 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1083. 19N81W:


Heavy snow early in October and no hurricanes....does kinda make you wonder.....

looking forward is there anything else for the caribbean in the next couple weeks?


The tropical season is done. The wave in the EATL probably won't develop given the stable air in the CATL graveyard. Look for the models to drop this system in the next couple of days once they begin to resolve the poor thermodynamic environment better.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1093. MahFL
2:49 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
RIP Karen, what a tease she was !
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1092. BahaHurican
2:49 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
@ Caribboy...



This was Friday... but the wx has been pretty much like this most of the last week. This is the first week since July that it hasn't rained heavily here at least some part of every single day.

So maybe u guys will get some rain... soon...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1091. sar2401
2:48 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Duh fool
And yes "fool" because it only a fool that would bring up an island in the Caribbean when we talking about the GOM specifically the US gulf coast


Yeah it appears to still have it and yeah it appears to be ESE if this continues without merging with the front the it could make landfall in Florida given that it survives and not merge

WKC, assuming you missed it, the NHC just declared Karen a remnant low. As I said, I'm not sure it has an LLC, more like a collection of blobs. The NHC says the remnant is headed east at 11 mph, so whatever is left may very well make its only landfall somewhere around the Big Bend area of Florida. I said this yesterday also and many people thought I was nuts.

What is it with you and the name calling? You really do have a bias for storms to head for the Caymans, just like saying a storm that's clearly headed east, and about to become a remnant low, is headed ESE and forming a new LLC. You open yourself up for some ribbing when you keep doing this. Just stick to forecasting what's really happening, not what you'd like to see happen.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1089. SLU
2:46 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
A record breaking season for all the right (wrong) reasons.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1088. K8eCane
2:46 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Well everybody..See You In September
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1087. guygee
2:46 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1073. sar2401:

That's my belief. These active periods average about 20 years. 1995 to 2012 isn't all that far off the average. These multi-decadal active periods also tend to have their most active seasons about in the middle of the cycle, and 2004-2005 are also in the right time period. Most weather is characterized by persistence. During the height of the last active period, it wasn't hard to forecast that the next year would be much higher than average. If 2014 turns out to be average or below average, I think it will be pretty certain we will be headed into the next quiet multi-decadal period.
Was it only yesterday you were saying the historical period since the 1800's was an insufficient sample for scientists to make judgements? Now one or two years is enough for you? Wrong on both counts.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1086. matilda101
2:46 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Offically Karen is now our ExKaren...remnants are moving east according to NHC
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1085. allancalderini
2:46 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
This season has been so boring,Yesterday I have a feeling Karen wouldn`t make landfall and I was correct -_-.I am speechless of this season.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1084. wunderkidcayman
2:45 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Hmm ok NHC says E I'll take that as E and now dead and says whatever LLC is there it's weak and elongated fine boy it must feel boring with no US landfalling system since early season with Andrea which is a good thing right now with what's happening with the Gov and everything else US don't need any
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1083. 19N81W
2:45 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Quoting 1078. SLU:


This season is officially a bust.


Heavy snow early in October and no hurricanes....does kinda make you wonder.....

looking forward is there anything else for the caribbean in the next couple weeks?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Category 6™

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather