Tropical Storm Karen Dissipates

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:34 PM GMT on October 06, 2013

Tropical Storm Karen degenerated into a post-tropical low pressure system this morning, done in by dry air and high wind shear. Karen's demise brings the seasonal Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic up to 27, which is about 31% of average for this time of the year. Climatologically, the season should be about 85% over, and I expect we will see just one or two more named storms before the quiet Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 peters out. The next candidate to be a named storm is a low pressure area that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday, and was located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands at 11 am Sunday morning. The disturbance is headed west-northwest into the Central Atlantic, and is unlikely to threaten any land areas. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 5-day development odds of 30%. The UKMET model develops the disturbance into a tropical depression late in the week, but the GFS and European models do not.

One item of interest regarding Karen, noted in the NHC discussion Saturday afternoon at 5 pm EDT:

THE 12Z HWRF RUN SHOWED CONSIDERABLY LESS INTENSIFICATION WITH KAREN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AFTER ASSIMILATING DATA FROM THE FROM THE
NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR. THIS MARKS THE FIRST TIME DOPPLER RADAR DATA HAVE BEEN ASSIMILATED INTO AN OPERATIONAL HURRICANE MODEL IN REAL TIME.

The integration of real-time radar data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters into the HWRF model may make this model worthy of extra consideration in the future.


Figure 1. The remnants of Tropical Storm Karen were still generating some heavy rains over the Northern Gulf of Mexico at 11 am EDT Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

TS Karen (FullTimeRV)
Orange Beach Alabama TS Karen
TS Karen
Karen Bands (llpj04)
presently stationary 120 miles south of Morgan city with 35 mph winds
Karen Bands
Karen In Pink (llpj04)
Karen In Pink

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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822. MahFL
3:51 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

It's updating again.
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821. Envoirment
2:57 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
90W is inbetween the Gulf Of Thailand & The Andaman Sea




GFS at 120 hours for 90W



If this verifies, we could be looking at the deadliest storm this year so far.
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819. LargoFl
2:51 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
wonder how my friends in Sarasota are making out down there............
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1245 PM EDT

* AT 952 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF THREE INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
818. Tropicsweatherpr
2:51 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 785. Tazmanian:



thats not news they been saying that evere update i think your this a little late or you this have not noted it in tell now


I had to post the CPC update as last week a blogger repeated many times that El Nino was brewing. I will not say the name of the blogger but many know who he is.
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817. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:49 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
816. Tropicsweatherpr
2:48 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013

NARDA HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING...WITH A LONG CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND
WRAPPING AROUND MOST OF THE CIRCULATION. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A
POSSIBLE PARTIAL EYEWALL BUT WITH SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LOW-
AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC ARE
45 AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON SOME
FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME...THE HIGHER OF
THE TWO DVORAK ESTIMATES IS SELECTED FOR THIS ADVISORY.

RECENT FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER WAS FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND A LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13.
NARDA SHOULD BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE WESTERN SIDE
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. AS AN AMPLIFIED MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST IN A FEW
DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. THE
ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM SUCCUMBING TO SHEAR AND TURNING
WESTWARD SOONER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...WHEREAS THE GFS
PREDICTS A DEEPER SYSTEM GAINING MORE LATITUDE BEFORE WEAKENING AND
TURNING WESTWARD. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL NORTHWARD RELOCATION AND TO BE CLOSER TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH ASSUMES A DEEPER CYCLONE THAN
FORECAST BY THE ECMWF.

NARDA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WARM BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND PASSING UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW
NARDA TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE SOON. IN ABOUT TWO
DAYS...WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD BECOME EVEN
STRONGER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE NARDA TRAVERSES
COOLER WATERS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING BY DAY 4...AND
NARDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 5. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED OVER THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. WHILE
THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS UNCHANGED AT LONG RANGE...IT IS VERY
SENSITIVE TO THE TRACK FORECAST...WITH A DEEPER/STRONGER CYCLONE
LIKELY MOVING FARTHER NORTH AND EXPERIENCING THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR
SOONER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 14.0N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 14.4N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 15.1N 126.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 15.6N 127.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 16.1N 128.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 16.5N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 16.7N 130.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 16.7N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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815. Tazmanian
2:46 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 810. prcane4you:
I love this name list for next year hurricane season




thats list is not for hurricane season the name list i for winter storm names for this comeing winter season
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814. Tropicsweatherpr
2:46 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013

...NARDA INTENSIFYING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 122.5W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
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813. Torito
2:45 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 811. calkevin77:


Lol. No kidding. I've dealt with my fare share of wasps but if I came across hornets that size in my yard there would be a can of WD-40 in one hand and a lighter in the other.


LOL, its funny how any insect sprayed with WD-40 literally burns to death.....

Anyways, im out of here for about 2 hours. Cyas!
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812. VR46L
2:42 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 802. calkevin77:


So I just looked. Saw the video about giant hornets and then left lol :)


I saw ,the 2050 how we are going to die one, and left.....
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811. calkevin77
2:42 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 805. Torito:


Ikr! those hornets are deadly! (just like everything else, according to TWC.)


Lol. No kidding. I've dealt with my fare share of wasps but if I came across hornets that size in my yard there would be a can of WD-40 in one hand and a lighter in the other.
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809. VR46L
2:40 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 804. LargoFl:
Tornado watch from the midlantic up into the northeast coastal states....


That is a huge area

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808. LargoFl
2:40 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
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807. Torito
2:40 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 806. Tazmanian:



yes we all ready had the 1st winter name storm of the season


Well, historically, weak hurricane seasons correspond to strong winter seasons.(Something has to balance the heat in the tropics out, right?) :P
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806. Tazmanian
2:38 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 795. Torito:
Here is the 2013 winter storm name list.... Will we get through it this year?




yes we all ready had the 1st winter name storm of the season
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805. Torito
2:38 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 802. calkevin77:


So I just looked. Saw the video about giant hornets and then left lol :)


Ikr! those hornets are deadly! (just like everything else, according to TWC.)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
804. LargoFl
2:38 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Tornado watch from the midlantic up into the northeast coastal states....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
803. Torito
2:38 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 800. LargoFl:
well right now no rain, had some heavy rains and wind earlier..probably more coming in thru the day..nice outside right now.


Exact opposite here, gray skies with light rain, and forecast to become heavy in the next few hours before tapering off around 6-8 PM.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
802. calkevin77
2:38 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 793. VR46L:


Hmmm ...Yeah... very fluffy with doom in every article ... not much change in content just the look .....


So I just looked. Saw the video about giant hornets and then left lol :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
800. LargoFl
2:37 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 799. Torito:
Hey largo, how are you faring down there? Karen's remnants are coming into Fl now...

well right now no rain, had some heavy rains and wind earlier..probably more coming in thru the day..nice outside right now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
799. Torito
2:35 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Hey largo, how are you faring down there? Karen's remnants are coming into Fl now...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
798. SLU
2:35 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 788. CaribBoy:


24hr rainfall : 27mm / 1.1 inch (the same amount fell during the entire month of September... a shame!)

Hopefully new developments will occur later today.


Incredible
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797. redwagon
2:35 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 775. calkevin77:


I saw that too. Fingers crossed. I was looking at the daily data from my station for last year and by this time it was pretty much dry through the beginning of 2013. I don't even know when the so called rainy season is here any more. If this pans out we could see a couple of inches over a week period. The patterns are starting to look more and more like West Coast type seasons.


Not much better than waking up to nearly a sure rain thing, huh? I don't know of the BOC guy jumped (like Hermine) or just spun up. But it doesn't seem too threatened by the front with vis, so maybe our forecast will verify ! fingers crossed too.
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796. LargoFl
2:34 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
795. Torito
2:34 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Here is the 2013 winter storm name list.... Will we get through it this year?

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794. Torito
2:32 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
The snow season is just starting now, look at Washington.

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793. VR46L
2:32 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 781. Torito:
Wow, did anyone notice weather.com's new homepage? it looks pretty nice....



Hmmm ...Yeah... very fluffy with doom in every article ... not much change in content just the look .....
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792. LargoFl
2:32 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
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791. nocanesplease
2:31 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 767. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning everyone...latest GFS has a tropical storm approaching the Lesser Antilles next week.


Link
Ok. Good luck with that.
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790. Torito
2:30 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
If this is what the first winter storm does to the United States, I hate to think about what some of the systems in the active part of winter do...

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789. Torito
2:28 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 780. Tazmanian:



look like they got a big miss thats good


Yea, I don't believe it made landfall on those islands, I think it was just barely off.
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788. CaribBoy
2:28 PM GMT on October 07, 2013


24hr rainfall : 27mm / 1.1 inch (the same amount fell during the entire month of September... a shame!)

Hopefully new developments will occur later today.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
787. calkevin77
2:28 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 771. LargoFl:
Red..gfs says rain starts sat all the way thru tues there..good luck...


Ahh I love those Pacific systems. That one looks like it might be worth watching. Hopefully Southern CA can get in on the action with it. They need the rain big time.
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786. LargoFl
2:28 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
next week the fronts your's red...............
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785. Tazmanian
2:28 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 777. Tropicsweatherpr:
Those who want El Nino to come may have to wait a while because I have bad news to deliver.

Climate Prediction Center 10/7/13 update has Neutral thru Winter



thats not news they been saying that evere update i think your this a little late or you this have not noted it in tell now
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784. redwagon
2:28 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 768. LargoFl:


Wow, looks like the little BOC number is to become a reality.....
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783. Torito
2:28 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
By the way, here are the grand totals for Winter Storm Atlas.





71MPH GUSTS!
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782. VR46L
2:26 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 770. Torito:
91W: The next typhoon??



Maybe ... one time ya look it a bunch of disorganised clouds next time its a beautiful but dangerous storm
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781. Torito
2:26 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Wow, did anyone notice weather.com's new homepage? it looks pretty nice....

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780. Tazmanian
2:26 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 773. Torito:
Danas looks very impressive, however you can noticeably see the slight weakening occurring, if you look at the eyewall in the floater.

The south-west portion of the cyclone is slowly weakening, as well.
This morning:145mph
Right now: 135-140mph




look like they got a big miss thats good
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779. LargoFl
2:26 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
778. nocanesplease
2:25 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 683. pottery:

The CV Season is starting !

heheheheh
I've read here about the season being late but don't know about the source. Did you?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
777. Tropicsweatherpr
2:25 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Those who want El Nino to come may have to wait a while because I have bad news to deliver.

Climate Prediction Center 10/7/13 update has Neutral thru Winter
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776. LargoFl
2:23 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
its dies around 228 hours per GFS..............
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775. calkevin77
2:23 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 739. redwagon:


You're right. Here are the highs for Austin for 10 days: 86/86/86/84/88/90/84/82/81/79, with high rain chances for the last five, which I haven't seen verify in years.

Whoever wrote the forecast sees the BOC coming ashore eventually and stalling, it would suggest.


I saw that too. Fingers crossed. I was looking at the daily data from my station for last year and by this time it was pretty much dry through the beginning of 2013. I don't even know when the so called rainy season is here any more. If this pans out we could see a couple of inches over a week period. The patterns are starting to look more and more like West Coast type seasons.
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774. Torito
2:23 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 772. Tazmanian:



yep sure looks like it


one thing that is not lacking this year is typhoons. :P
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773. Torito
2:22 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Danas looks very impressive, however you can noticeably see the slight weakening occurring, if you look at the eyewall in the floater.

The south-west portion of the cyclone is slowly weakening, as well.
This morning:145mph
Right now: 135-140mph

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
772. Tazmanian
2:22 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Quoting 770. Torito:
91W: The next typhoon??




yep sure looks like it
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather