About Jeff Masters
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
98L in Eastern Atlantic no Threat; Typhoon Danas Takes Aim at Japan
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:49 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms and spin. The UKMET model develops the disturbance into a tropical depression late in the week, but the GFS and European models do not. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 20%, and 5-day odds of 30%. 98L's projected track will take it into the Central Atlantic, where it is unlikely to threaten any land areas. The models are not showing any other threat areas, and the large-scale Atlantic conditions favor below-average chances of tropical storm formation for the next two weeks. These odds may rise by the last week of October and first week of November, when the MJO has a decent chance changing to a phase that will bring upward air motion to the Atlantic.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 98L over the far Eastern Atlantic, taken at approximately 8:30 am EDT on October 7, 2013. The southernmost Cape Verde Islands are visible at upper right. Image credit: NASA.
Typhoon Danas takes aim at Japan
In the Pacific, impressive Typhoon Danas reached Category 4 status with 145 mph winds this morning as it passed just north of Okinawa, becoming the third strongest tropical cyclone on Earth so far in 2013. Only Super Typhoon Usagi (160 mph winds) and Super Typhoon Utor (150 mph winds) have been stronger. Danas has peaked in strength, and satellite loops show that wind shear has begun eating into the intense thunderstorms on the southwest portion of Danas' eyewall. Danas is expected to weaken to Category 2 strength as it recurves to the northeast and passes very close to Nagasaki, Japan around 12 UTC on Tuesday.
Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Danas, taken at approximately 02 UTC on October 7, 2013. At the time, Danas had top winds of about 140 mph. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Cyclone expected to form in the North Indian Ocean and threaten India
In India, where one of the longest monsoon seasons ever recorded is finally beginning to wane, atmospheric conditions over the North Indian Ocean are growing more conducive for the formation of tropical cyclones. The waters off the west coast of Thailand feature a large area of intense thunderstorms with a pronounced spin, as seen on satellite images. Both the GFS and European models predict that this disturbance will develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday, with the storm expected to track to the northwest and make landfall in Northeast India this weekend. This storm has the potential to intensify into a major storm capable of driving a dangerous storm surge onto the coast.
Jeff Masters
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
Reader Comments
Category 6™
751. thesailer99
8:40 PM GMT on October 10, 2013750. ScottLincoln
1:51 AM GMT on October 09, 2013This is why we should be pushing for the earthquake warning systems already in use in many other developed countries with earthquake threats. Unfortunately our national priorities many times stray from science and important domestic matters.
749. sar2401
6:31 PM GMT on October 08, 2013Thank you for the interesting links, Scott. I have never been involved in a tornado rescue, but have part of rescue teams after major earthquakes in California and Mexico City. While the lead time from a tornado warning to a strike may only be a few minutes, it's more like a few seconds in a major earthquake. Even while a tornado is almost on top of a structure, there may still be a few seconds to move to a better place of safety. Once a major earthquake is in progress, it's impossible to move at all due to the violent ground motion. I was continually amazed at the number of people we found alive in completely collapsed structures, including pancake collapses in multistory concrete slab buildings in Mexico City. Every collapse creates voids withing the collapsed structure, and that's where people are sheltered and can survive, even when it looks hopeless from the outside. The biggest killer is time, not the actual collapse. Most trapped people are injured and dehydration sets in withing 24 hours, especially in hot weather. I haven't seen any figures for the numbers of people who survived the initial collapse but died later from injuries or dehydration but, from my own anecdotal experience, it's a substantial amount.
748. Neapolitan
4:53 PM GMT on October 08, 2013Please do tell...
747. ScottLincoln
4:04 PM GMT on October 08, 2013A fascinating, logical rebuttal. Do you have any actual information to back up your original claims?
As a reminder...
1. Arctic sea ice melt is virtually irrelevant to sea level rise. You can look this up... it isn't a controversial statement.
2. There are no climate change predictions that even remotely suggest that winter will no longer occur in the panhandle of Florida. If you were to remove said heater, it would be your mistake to make. You can look this up... no astrophysicists have made predictions that the planet's orbit will change. If you'd like to suggest otherwise, it's your responsibility to back it up with evidence.
No evidence to back up your claims. No rebuttals with anything of substance. Yet someone who has actually gone to school for this is "drinking the kool aid?" Fascinating.
746. pie314271
2:58 PM GMT on October 08, 2013WTPZ44 KNHC 081431
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES...CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION HAS ALSO DECREASED THIS
MORNING...AND OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE CONSEQUENTLY
FALLEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT... WHICH IS A
BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
THE UNEXPECTED WEAKENING OF NARDA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS APPEARS
TO BE THE RESULT OF AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR...AND
INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE NARDA TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...
AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NARDA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT.
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A
LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BEGIN MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AS
IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 15.6N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.1N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 16.3N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 16.4N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 16.4N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 16.3N 131.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z 16.0N 133.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z 15.5N 135.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
745. scott39
2:37 PM GMT on October 08, 2013744. PanhandleChuck
2:29 PM GMT on October 08, 2013K.... keep drinking the kool aid
743. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:27 PM GMT on October 08, 2013742. barbamz
2:26 PM GMT on October 08, 2013Some recent screenshots from Nautilus / channel 1.
741. HiDesertRat
2:19 PM GMT on October 08, 2013Thanks! That was amazing to see how so many potential storms just dried up and blew away, so to speak. One weird year indeed!
740. biff4ugo
2:16 PM GMT on October 08, 2013739. biff4ugo
2:14 PM GMT on October 08, 2013So do Tea Party folks like wunderground since it is private sector and doesn't shut down with the most of the other weather services like NOAA or are they disappointed that they weren't able to douse this climate change espousing web portal?
738. redwagon
2:14 PM GMT on October 08, 2013System trying to form off Venezuela? BOC spark still alive, kinda inland.
737. Torito
2:12 PM GMT on October 08, 2013Yes, looks like a tropical cyclone already, JTWC should get its act together sometime.....
736. ILwthrfan
2:10 PM GMT on October 08, 2013Is this even a depression yet? JTWC still has it as 90W, I have no idea how that isn't at least a TD, let alone it may already be a minimal cylcone less than 50 knots?
735. SFLWeatherman
2:05 PM GMT on October 08, 2013734. ScottLincoln
2:04 PM GMT on October 08, 2013Arctic sea ice melt is virtually irrelevant to sea level rise.
There are no climate change predictions that even remotely suggest that winter will no longer occur in the panhandle of Florida. If you were to remove said heater, it would be your mistake to make.
733. barbamz
1:48 PM GMT on October 08, 2013Now the connection is broken :(
Usually it's very stable. I like to follow the live reports from Nautilus for quite a time, whether they are exploring sunken ships, underwater mud volcanoes or whatever. Great job to communicate science in real time in a very public friendly manner!
Edit: Back online again :)
732. hydrus
1:47 PM GMT on October 08, 2013731. washingtonian115
1:46 PM GMT on October 08, 2013730. Torito
1:44 PM GMT on October 08, 2013729. Tango01
1:44 PM GMT on October 08, 2013One word to describe it: pathetic
728. ricderr
1:43 PM GMT on October 08, 2013good morning boys and girls
727. VirginIslandsVisitor
1:42 PM GMT on October 08, 2013Thanks so much for that link! I read an article last week that they would be diving in the area. This is fascinating to watch.
Lindy
726. Torito
1:41 PM GMT on October 08, 2013725. Neapolitan
1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2013Artic--> Arctic724. Stoopid1
1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2013Andrea - 1.6175
Barry - 0.5650
Chantal - 2.0925
Dorian - 2.4925
Erin - 0.98
Fernand - 0.3625
Gabrielle - 1.8425
Humberto - 8.8225
Ingrid - 4.6675
Jerry - 1.4175
Karen - 2.09
Total - 26.95
723. Doss2k
1:37 PM GMT on October 08, 2013One week late again this year for my fishing trip. Looks more like a hang out at the beach and drink beer inside kind of trip now :(.
722. ScottLincoln
1:35 PM GMT on October 08, 2013Based upon what information?
The peer reviewed literature on tornado survivability indicates that the vast majority of people survived in areas with "violent" (EF4-5) tornadic winds. Most of these studies were biased toward tornado events in areas that had few basements, particularly Oklahoma. This suggests that your chance of surviving a tornado - even a strong or violent tornado - is quite high, assuming you following the standard tornado safety advice. Lowest floor, sturdy structure, most interior room. Never use your car (exceptions are few and not widely applicable), and never stay in a mobile home.
Follow the standard advice, avoid the unsubstantiated advice of newscasters, and although you may be injured (especially in higher-end tornadoes) you will most likely survive. That is what the evidence says.
More reading:
Wurman et al (2007)
Brooks et al (2008)
Simmons & Sutter (2008)
Ashley (2007)
721. canelane23N75W
1:33 PM GMT on October 08, 2013The ultimate prep that has led to the busted season!!
I went and invested a few thousand dollars in a trailer for my boat so I would not have to go thru the stress of pulling my boat out this year for all the storms we almost had...It seems the more I prep the less we get. This is a very good thing indeed, although we like a good storm you can't beat the adrenaline. We are thankful for the break after two years of excitement from Irene and Sandy. So I do apologize for the year of the tropical storm!!
link to the video of Irene - Link
720. StormPro
1:32 PM GMT on October 08, 2013EXCELLENT!!! Then you can track something and no one gets hurt
719. LargoFl
1:29 PM GMT on October 08, 2013718. LargoFl
1:28 PM GMT on October 08, 2013716. whitewabit
1:20 PM GMT on October 08, 2013Thank you for the link .. sad that they are finding garbage on the ocean floor ..
715. daddyjames
1:19 PM GMT on October 08, 2013Another chilly, upper-40's, but beautiful morning - with one slight exception.
Light winds combined with a skunk that met an untimely demise last night on the highway, leads to a local forecast outside of continued stinky (barely breathable) conditions.
Otherwise, the next chance for rain, and potentially severe weather, in the area begins late-Thursday and stretches throughout Saturday. A potential concern for tailgaters at the Oklahoma-Texas showdown in Norman on Sat.
Two potential areas of concern in the Tropics. If the CV storm develops, there still is a snowball's chance in "a very warm place" for my numbers to be correct.
Have a fantastic day. Hope for our sake the city guys can cart PePe Le Pew (moment of silence) somewhere far removed from here.
:)
714. GeoffreyWPB
1:16 PM GMT on October 08, 2013713. Stoopid1
1:14 PM GMT on October 08, 2013Cloudy and 75 now, but we're supposed to have lows in the low and mid 60's this week. Happy to see the change in season really coming.
712. GeoffreyWPB
1:10 PM GMT on October 08, 2013711. barbamz
1:05 PM GMT on October 08, 2013Current Status of the Nautilus with its ROVs:
We are continuing to dive along the western wall of the Mona Rift, investigating the geological structure and biological character of this major fault system. We are at a depth of 2100 m. 1 hour 36 min ago
710. biff4ugo
1:00 PM GMT on October 08, 2013I'm looking forward to actually being on the Fall side of this front with you.
709. Torito
1:00 PM GMT on October 08, 2013708. MahFL
1:00 PM GMT on October 08, 2013I heard FL was going to be dry.
707. whitewabit
12:57 PM GMT on October 08, 2013cattle ranchers in the northern plain states are saying they have suffered large losses from the blizzard ..
Link
706. Xyrus2000
12:57 PM GMT on October 08, 2013That won't necessarily help you. Between soil liquefaction, ground displacement, sink holes, and general geological instability you probably won't be that much better off. And with nothing built to withstand an 8.0 earthquake in the region, even if you survived you'd be in the middle of a major disaster zone.
And by disaster zone I mean a large portion of the midwest. Most of the substrate out there is solid bedrock which happens to be quite good at transmitting seismic waves across long distances. The 1811-1812 quake caused damage over a very large area, and even in Boston supposedly caused church bells to ring.
Then there's the aftershocks and the other ancillary effects like potential floods (from broken dams, seismic shifts under bodies of water) and fires. There'd also be heavy disruption to our food supply since a lot of our agricultural resources would be impacted.
It would be a bag of happy fun balls alright. :P
705. allancalderini
12:53 PM GMT on October 08, 2013704. masonsnana
12:51 PM GMT on October 08, 2013Lol!
703. StormTrackerScott
12:51 PM GMT on October 08, 2013702. StormTrackerScott
12:48 PM GMT on October 08, 2013701. ncstorm
12:44 PM GMT on October 08, 2013Today
Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 100%
Rain
High: 69 °F
Tonight
Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 100%
Rain
Low: 61 °F
Wednesday
Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 90%
Rain
High: 70 °F
Wednesday
Night
Rain Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Rain
Likely
Low: 60 °F
Thursday
Chance Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Rain
High: 71 °F
Thursday
Night
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly
Cloudy
Low: 58 °F