98L in Eastern Atlantic no Threat; Bay of Bengal Storm Could be Trouble for India

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:26 PM GMT on October 08, 2013

A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 400 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west-northwest at about 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a small area of heavy thunderstorms with a modest amount of spin. The UKMET and GFS models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression late in the week, but the European model does not. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. 98L's projected track will take it into the Central Atlantic, where it is unlikely to threaten any land areas. However, a few members of the European model's ensembles of forecasts do show 98L potentially impacting the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands early next week.

Off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast, a non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to develop along a stalled cold front just offshore, bringing an extended period of strong on-shore winds that will bring high waves, tides 1 - 2 feet above normal, and beach erosion from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to Virginia Beach, Virginia. The Surfchex live webcam site has some impressive views of the high surf today from various cameras along the coast.

In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Danas has weakened to a tropical storm with 65 mph winds, and is bringing sustained winds of 40 mph to the south coast of South Korea. The Western Pacific will stay very active this week, with the GFS and European models predicting that two new tropical storms will form east of the Philippines late in the week.

In the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, a strong tropical disturbance with plenty of spin has developed off the west coast of Thailand, as seen on satellite images. Both the GFS and European models predict that this disturbance will develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The North Indian Ocean is much easier to predict the formation of Tropical Cyclones for then the Atlantic, so these forecasts are very likely to come true. The storm expected to track to the west-northwest and make landfall in Northeast India on Saturday. Conditions are ripe for this storm to intensify to hurricane strength and drive a dangerous storm surge onto the coast.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of tropical disturbance 90W over the eastern Bay of Bengal in the North Indian Ocean, taken at approximately 08:30 UTC on October 8, 2013. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone that will affect Northeast India this weekend. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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643. biff4ugo
3:16 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Just because fertilizer from people upstream is causing toxic algae blooms in your local lakes and rivers doesn't mean the ocean is blooming with algae.

As NAGA mentioned there are limiting factors to growth in the deep ocean. Iron is one major limiting factor far off shore, but spraying iron filings from a plane had very disappointing results, in terms of increased carbon capture (marine snow) on the bottom of the ocean.

Even worse, when fertilizers and blooms flow into the Gulf from the Mississippi, they die, sink to the bottom, rot and eat up all the oxygen, and create huge dead zones that kill all kinds of fish and animals for miles around.

The ocean has taken up about as much of our C02 slack as it can. We need to back off.

One of the cool things about the SAL layer that effects hurricanes and shades the ocean surface, is that the red dust also has Iron oxide in it. That can help increase ocean algae production, but I don't know if that has been studied.
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641. Patrap
3:10 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
A good way to learn about Carbon being released into the atmosphere via fossil fuel burning, is learning the Types of Carbon Present and how it got there,as it matters greatly to understand this basic fact.

Overview of Greenhouse Gases
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639. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:09 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
637. FunnelVortex
3:09 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting 634. HeinrichFrogswatter:


please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself


Please refrain from acting like a mod.
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636. LargoFl
3:08 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting 633. FtMyersgal:


It's 79° in Fort Myers Largo. Cool front should reach her real soon. Lows here the rest of the week low 70's to upper 60's. Can't wait!
oh yes feels great huh..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
633. FtMyersgal
3:07 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting 627. LargoFl:
yessss..its in the 70's here by me..feels wonderful!


It's 79° in Fort Myers Largo. Cool front should reach her real soon. Lows here the rest of the week low 70's to upper 60's. Can't wait!
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629. Patrap
3:06 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
No debate there, save for in some thought process, far removed from Science,..
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628. FunnelVortex
3:05 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
I see an AGW vs. Ice Age debate has started...
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627. LargoFl
3:04 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting 625. SFLWeatherman:
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
Going down into the 60's at night all week and 83 to 86 all week good bye! 90'S!!:)
yessss..its in the 70's here by me..feels wonderful!
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626. LargoFl
3:03 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
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625. SFLWeatherman
3:03 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
Going down into the 60's at night all week and 83 to 86 all week good bye! 90'S!!:)
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624. Naga5000
3:00 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting 619. LargoFl:
well im not continuing this today..I asked doc if he could, make this a day topic after the season ends and the blog slows down..I know he belives in todays global warming and thats ok, but there also is the very real looming ice age as well and with the present algae blooms and expanding plant life which eat co2..its a valid discussion topic for after the season ends...because co2 in itself is what keeps us from going into another ice age among other things like the earths orbit etc..but enough..tropical season is still here..and this topic is off topic today..


Algae, like most plants have limiting agents in energy production. CO2 is important, but without Phosphorus, Nitrogen, Potassium, Iron (in the case of many Alage species), etc (many others), added CO2 does nothing as energy production is limited by the availability of other elements.
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623. Patrap
2:59 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
90W Rainbow Loop

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622. SFLWeatherman
2:59 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
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621. Sfloridacat5
2:59 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
based on isotopes in ice.
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620. Patrap
2:57 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Lawdy,...



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619. LargoFl
2:54 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting 617. sar2401:

LOL. Seriously, though, since I'm no paleontologist, has the earth, on average, been cooler longer or warmer longer? The ice ages leave behind a lot of visible evidence, like a relatively flat northern Ohio, where the southern extent of the ice sheet bulldozed the land and left a lot of big rocks behind when it retreated, compared to southern Ohio, which is still hilly because the ice sheet never got there. Warm periods leave mostly tree ring and fossil evidence, something the average person isn't going to see every day. In particular, since man has been around, have we been average colder or average warmer? I have no clue about the answer, but I'm sure someone here does.
well im not continuing this today..I asked doc if he could, make this a day topic after the season ends and the blog slows down..I know he belives in todays global warming and thats ok, but there also is the very real looming ice age as well and with the present algae blooms and expanding plant life which eat co2..its a valid discussion topic for after the season ends...because co2 in itself is what keeps us from going into another ice age among other things like the earths orbit etc..but enough..tropical season is still here..and this topic is off topic today..
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618. hurricanes2018
2:50 PM GMT on October 09, 2013

fall picture!!
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617. sar2401
2:47 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
no not at all, im asking doc if once the hurricane season is over and the blog slows down..if we could one day discuss ice ages..NOT global warming..dont get me started sar...

LOL. Seriously, though, since I'm no paleontologist, has the earth, on average, been cooler longer or warmer longer? The ice ages leave behind a lot of visible evidence, like a relatively flat northern Ohio, where the southern extent of the ice sheet bulldozed the land and left a lot of big rocks behind when it retreated, compared to southern Ohio, which is still hilly because the ice sheet never got there. Warm periods leave mostly tree ring and fossil evidence, something the average person isn't going to see every day. In particular, since man has been around, have we been average colder or average warmer? I have no clue about the answer, but I'm sure someone here does.
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616. VR46L
2:46 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Personally I prefer this Map ... Instead of the illusion of warmer looking SST Near me than the GOM ....







Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
615. Tropicsweatherpr
2:46 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Narda hanging on barely.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013

A LIMITED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN NARDA AS A MARGINAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY CYCLE. DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO
FALL AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 25 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WHICH...ALONG WITH SOME SHEAR...SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER WEAKENING. NARDA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE
TO A REMNANT LOW BY THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE IN 2-3 DAYS.

NARDA IS DRIFTING WESTWARD...AND SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
LATER TODAY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TRADES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 16.9N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 16.7N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/1200Z 16.3N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/0000Z 15.8N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1200Z 15.3N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
614. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:45 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting 609. Naga5000:


I'm sure one day we will, but that will most likely be way beyond our lifetimes. :)
maybe sometimes things happen in but a blink of a eye

wooly mammoths of Siberian knows how quick climate can change they have been found frozen with buttercups still in there mouths and bellies like they were grazing when it happened
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613. Patrap
2:45 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
What ocean heating reveals about global warming

Filed under: Climate modelling Climate Science El Nino Instrumental Record Oceans skeptics — stefan @ 25 September 2013

The heat content of the oceans is growing and growing. That means that the greenhouse effect has not taken a pause and the cold sun is not noticeably slowing global warming.

NOAA posts regularly updated measurements of the amount of heat stored in the bulk of the oceans. For the upper 2000 m (deeper than that not much happens) it looks like this:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
612. Patrap
2:43 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting 603. LargoFl:
no not at all, im asking doc if once the hurricane season is over and the blog slows down..if we could one day discuss ice ages..NOT global warming..dont get me started sar...


Ice ages ?

Your serious,, with C02 @ 400 ppm?

Okay.


How does a Ice Age relate to our current terra-forming of the Planet Via burning sequestered Carbon in fossil Fuels ?





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611. Neapolitan
2:42 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting 595. sar2401:

It's not clear to me that the oceans are heating or cooling, but we have very little comprehensive history of ocean temperatures. Until the 70's, when temperature sensing satellites were developed, all our knowledge of ocean temperatures came from shipping reports, which is like saying a comprehensive record of temperatures along major freeways gives us a good record of temperatures in an entire state. Most AGW advocates, as I understand it, would say that oceans are warming, but the question in terms of tropical storms is where the most warming is taking place. If it's in the Arctic and North Atlantic, the effect on tropical storms, if any, would take a long time to recognize. SST's are only part of the puzzle when it comes to tropical storms, as we've seen this year, with at least average SST's and far below average tropical storm formation.
It may not be clear to you, but thousands of oceanographers and climate scientists are pretty darn convinced:

ocean

(For the record, it occurs to me that an "AGW advocate" would be, by definition, someone promoting the continued heating of the planet by man's actions. As such, wouldn't that term best be used to describe folks denying both that the planet is warming and that man has a role in that warming?)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
610. hydrus
2:42 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
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609. Naga5000
2:41 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting 603. LargoFl:
no not at all, im asking doc if once the hurricane season is over and the blog slows down..if we could one day discuss ice ages..NOT global warming..dont get me started sar...


I'm sure one day we will, but that will most likely be way beyond our lifetimes. :)
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608. FunnelVortex
2:41 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting 605. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I like this map myself



Still see La Ninia
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607. hydrus
2:40 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
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606. sar2401
2:38 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Just updated

There you go, complete model agreement on 98L...

I wonder if the same spaghetti tracks are used on every invest?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
605. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:37 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting 601. Neapolitan:
Incorrect statement. Judging by that map--reproduced below--most of the Atlantic ranges from slightly above normal to significantly above normal, with just a few scattered spots at or below normal.

sst


I like this map myself

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
604. Xulonn
2:37 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting 516. StormTrackerScott:
I think the wording of Doc's blog caption should be 98L no threat YET!
Basking in the glory of your incredibly accurate predictions for Karen, I see!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
603. LargoFl
2:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting 600. sar2401:

Uh-oh....Anti-AGW post e-mail alerts are being send to all the usual bloggers...expect incoming barrage soon. :-)
no not at all, im asking doc if once the hurricane season is over and the blog slows down..if we could one day discuss ice ages..NOT global warming..dont get me started sar...
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602. hurricanes2018
2:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2013

fall time my friends!!!
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601. Neapolitan
2:35 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting 573. sar2401:

Most of the Atlantic ranges from very slightly above normal to very slightly below normal. Since that's a temperature anomaly map, not an SST map, it makes the ocean look warmer than it is. Only the far north Atlantic has SST's significantly above normal, which has no effect on tropical storm formation. The only really significant place with temperatures below normal is the east central Atlantic, south of the CV Islands. That does have an effect on tropical storm formation.
Incorrect statement. Judging by that map--reproduced below--most of the Atlantic ranges from slightly above normal to significantly above normal, with just a few scattered spots at or below normal.

sst
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
600. sar2401
2:31 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
DOC...when the hurricane season ends...can you do a page on this one day?......................

Uh-oh....Anti-AGW post e-mail alerts are being send to all the usual bloggers...expect incoming barrage soon. :-)
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599. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:27 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
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598. Tazmanian
2:26 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting 597. Gatorstorm:
What's the word on el nino/ la nina status?



here you go


Link
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597. Gatorstorm
2:24 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
What's the word on el nino/ la nina status?
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596. Sfloridacat5
2:24 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting 590. FunnelVortex:


In a few hundren million years it will be.


I can't wait that long.

Nice info from Wiki
The Pacific Ocean is the largest of the Earth's oceanic divisions. It extends from the Arctic in the north to the Southern Ocean (or, depending on definition, to Antarctica) in the south, bounded by Asia and Australia in the west, and the Americas in the east.

At 165.25 million square kilometres (63.8 million square miles) in area, this largest division of the World Ocean – and, in turn, the hydrosphere – covers about 46% of the Earth's water surface and about one-third of its total surface area, making it larger than all of the Earth's land area combined.[1] The equator subdivides it into the North Pacific Ocean and South Pacific Ocean, with two exceptions: the Galápagos and Gilbert Islands, while straddling the equator, are deemed wholly within the South Pacific.[2] The Mariana Trench in the western North Pacific is the deepest point in the world, reaching a depth of 10,911 metres (35,797 ft).[3]
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
595. sar2401
2:22 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
what happens IF..each year the oceans heat up just a lil bit less,each year yes we do get hurricanes but..each year less and less...we all must remember..we are inbetween Ice ages..in earths terms we humans live a blip in tiime...it would be a good idea for scientists to keep track of the storms each year..and watch for the less heating of the oceans.

It's not clear to me that the oceans are heating or cooling, but we have very little comprehensive history of ocean temperatures. Until the 70's, when temperature sensing satellites were developed, all our knowledge of ocean temperatures came from shipping reports, which is like saying a comprehensive record of temperatures along major freeways gives us a good record of temperatures in an entire state. Most AGW advocates, as I understand it, would say that oceans are warming, but the question in terms of tropical storms is where the most warming is taking place. If it's in the Arctic and North Atlantic, the effect on tropical storms, if any, would take a long time to recognize. SST's are only part of the puzzle when it comes to tropical storms, as we've seen this year, with at least average SST's and far below average tropical storm formation.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
594. Stoopid1
2:20 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Now this is more like it!

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593. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:20 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting 591. hydrus:
its pretty bleak hydrus so much so that I've started to scale back back the cane section on my blog and by oct 15 will have a full winter blog up and running
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather