India Braces for Extremely Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 PM GMT on October 11, 2013

Extremely dangerous Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Phailin is closing in on the northeast coast of India on the Bay of Bengal. Phailin put on a phenomenal burst of rapid intensification on Thursday, going from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds in just 24 hours. After reaching peak intensity near 8 pm EDT Thursday, Phailin--whose name means "a sapphire" in Thai--began an eyewall replacement cycle. The eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger-diameter eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. This process typically weakens the top winds of a tropical cyclone by 5 - 15 mph, and satellite estimates of Phailin's central pressure increased from 910 mb to 934 mb during the eyewall replacement cycle, from 04 - 11 UTC Friday. However, satellite images show that Phailin has completed its eyewall replacement cycle and is now re-intensifying, with the cloud tops of the very intense thunderstorms in the eyewall expanding and cooling, as updrafts in the eyewall grow stronger and push the clouds higher into the atmosphere. The latest satellite estimate of Phailin's central pressure had dropped to 920 mb as of 13 UTC (9 am EDT) on Friday, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center upped Phailin's intensity to a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds in their 11 am EDT Friday advisory. Radar out of Visakhapanam, India shows that heavy rains from the outer bands of Phailin are already affecting the coast, and these bands were bringing rainfall rates of over an inch per hour, as estimated by microwave data from 10:55 UTC Friday. Phailin is over ocean waters that have warmed since Thursday, and are now 29 - 30°C. These warm waters extend to a lesser depth than before, and ocean heat content has dropped to a moderate 20 - 40 kJ/cm^2. Wind shear remains low, 5 - 10 knots.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 04:30 UTC on October 11, 2013. At the time, Phailin was a top-end Category 4 storm with winds of 155 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Phailin
Phailin is likely to be the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. That terrible storm hit Northeast India in the Indian state of Odisha (formerly called Orissa) near the city of Bhubaneswar, as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds on October 29, 1999. The mighty cyclone, which peaked at Category 5 strength with 160 mph winds and a 912 mb central pressure shortly before landfall, drove a storm surge of at least 19' (5.9 meters) onto the coast (Kalsi et al., 2004.) The storm stalled just inland, dumping torrential rains on portions of India already saturated from the landfall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone 04B just twelve days before. The catastrophe killed 9,658 people and left $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars), India's most expensive and fourth deadliest tropical cyclone in the past 100 years. The models are in tight agreement that Phailin will make landfall in Northeast India on Saturday between 09 - 15 UTC about 100 miles to the southwest of where the 1999 cyclone hit. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting that a storm surge of up to 3 meters (ten feet) will hit along a swath a coast to the right of where the center makes landfall. This region of the coast is not as low-lying, which should keep the death toll due to storm surge much lower compared to the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, where more than 70% of the deaths occurred due to the storm surge. Deforestation of the coastal mangroves in the storm surge zone was associated with increased death toll in that storm, according to Das and Vincent (2009), who concluded, "villages with wider mangroves between them and the coast experienced significantly fewer deaths than ones with narrower or no mangroves.". Given Phailin's recent recovery from its eyewall replacement cycle and subsequent re-intensification, I expect that Phailin will hit the coast as a Category 4 storm with a strength very similar to that of the 1999 Odisha Cyclone.


Figure 2. Elevation of the Odisha region of India, with the track of the 1999 Odisha cyclone and forecast track of Phailin overlaid. Phailin is predicted to hit a region of the coast about 100 miles to the southwest of where the 1999 cyclone hit. The coast is not as low-lying to the southwest, which should result in a lower storm surge death toll. The greatest storm surge occurs along the coast to the right of where the center crosses. Image credit: http://www.globalwarmingart.com

Phailin's heavy rains will be capable of causing very destructive flooding; the 00Z Friday rainfall forecast from the HWRF model (Figure 3) calls for a significant swath of 8 - 16" of rain along the path of Phailin inland. Rains from the 1999 Odisha cyclone killed more than 2,000 people in the town of Padmapur, located more than 150 miles from the coast. Deforestation was cited as a contributing cause to these destructive floods that killed 36% of the town's population.


Figure 3. The 00Z Friday rainfall forecast from the HWRF model calls for a significant swath of 8 - 16" of rain along the path of Phailin inland. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/EMC Hurricane Forecast Project supported by Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP).

India's tropical cyclone history
There is good reason to be concerned when a major tropical cyclone forms in the Bay of Bengal. Twenty-six of the thirty-five deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms. During the past two centuries, 42% of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27% have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995.) Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a detailed post on India's tropical cyclone history.

References
Kalsi, S.R., N. Jayanthi N, and S.K. Roy Bhowmik, 2004, "A Review of Different Storm Surge Models and Estimated Storm Surge Height in Respect of Orissa Supercyclonic Storm of 29 October, 1999," New Delhi: Indian Meteorological Department.

Nicholls, R.J.N., N. Mimura, J.C. Topping, 1995, "Climate change in south and south-east Asia: some implications for coastal areas," J Glob Environ Eng 1995;1:137–54.

Das, S., and J.R. Vincent, 2009, "Mangroves protected villages and reduced death toll during Indian super cyclone", Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 May 5; 106(18): 7357–7360. Published online 2009 April 20. doi:  10.1073/pnas.0810440106

Little change to 98L in the Eastern Atlantic
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west to west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms with a substantial amount of spin. The disturbance is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, and the shear is expected to remain high for the next five days. The UKMET model shows some weak development of 98L by early next week, but the European and GFS models do not. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 40%, and 5-day odds of 40%. 98L's projected west-northwest track is expected take it several hundred miles northeast of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by the middle of next week, according to the 00Z Friday morning runs of the GFS and European models.


Figure 4. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Nari, taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on October 11, 2013. At the time, Nari was a Category 3 storm with winds of 115 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Nari headed towards the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, we have another very dangerous tropical cyclone--Category 3 Typhoon Nari, which is bearing down on the main Philippine island of Luzon. Nari will make landfall near 16 UTC (noon EDT), bringing the usual hazards of destructive winds, dangerous storm surge, and torrential rains capable of causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The core of the storm will pass about 80 miles north of the capital of Manila, Passage over Luzon is expected to weaken Nari to a Category 1 storm by the time it emerges into the South China Sea between the Philippines and Vietnam. Nari will then have a little over two days to re-intensify before making a second landfall in Vietnam around 18 UTC on Monday.


Video 1. The aftermath of the 1999 cyclone (and rising sea levels). See also this video on the ‪IDRF rehabilitation after the 1999 Odisha Supercyclone‬. Thanks to wunderground member barbamz for posting these links in my blog comments.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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494. Astrometeor
4:10 AM GMT on October 12, 2013
Quoting 493. 11sam11:
Yes, most people here have evacuated the coastal areas by foot, carts etc. The devastation of 1999 is still afresh. A lot of my relatives stay off the coast (inland 15 kms) of Gopalpur, the place where landfall is expected. In bhubaneswar, there has been gusts of upto 80 kmph. What I wanted to ask is whether the effect will be as pronounced 15 km inland, and whether structures made out of concrete(25 ft) will hold for the duration


Well wishes from America to you!
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493. 11sam11
4:05 AM GMT on October 12, 2013
Yes, most people here have evacuated the coastal areas by foot, carts etc. The devastation of 1999 is still afresh. A lot of my relatives stay off the coast (inland 15 kms) of Gopalpur, the place where landfall is expected. In bhubaneswar, there has been gusts of upto 80 kmph. What I wanted to ask is whether the effect will be as pronounced 15 km inland, and whether structures made out of concrete(25 ft) will hold for the duration
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492. MoltenIce
2:21 AM GMT on October 12, 2013
Quoting 446. barbamz:


That is one round eye.
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491. hydrus
12:12 AM GMT on October 12, 2013
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490. stormpetrol
10:02 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
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489. stormpetrol
9:52 PM GMT on October 11, 2013



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488. BahaHurican
9:46 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting 455. sar2401:

You can't have met want you wrote. Destruction is never beautiful. Those satellite images are impressive, awe-inspiring, and even beautiful in their own way, but the destruction these storms cause is never beautiful.
It was a metaphor.
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487. VR46L
9:44 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
.
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485. Tribucanes
9:43 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
I know this is trivial with Phailin's impending landfall but 98L continues to intensify and organize too. Latest satellite shot shows that a TD has at this point likely formed. The number of those evacuated for Phailin seems terribly low compared to the number of people in the path of. Makes you wonder how India, a country of immense wealth, albeit very consolidated, don't have HH's to fly into storms with the history they've had with these monsters.
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484. weathermanwannabe
9:38 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Will leave you for the afternoon. Found a link to TV in India currently providing coverage on the storm. Seems to be live but not sure abut the time lag:

Link


God Speed to all the folks in India.
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482. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
9:35 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
480. Patrap
9:30 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
ReliefWEB is watching the Cyclone to be able to respond post storm


Huge cyclone bears down on India
Huge cyclone bears down on India

REPORTfrom Agence France-Presse Published on 11 Oct 2013
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10/11/2013 14:29 GMT

BHUBANESWAR, October 11, 2013 (AFP) - A "very severe" cyclone gathered pace as it bore down on India's east coast Friday where the military mobilised to help evacuation efforts and panicked locals recalled a devastating storm in 1999.

The air force sent teams to assist local disaster agencies moving people out of the path of Cyclone Phailin, expected to make landfall early on Saturday evening accompanied by a storm surge of up to three metres (10 feet).

The storm was "a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 210-220 kilometres an hour (130-140 mph)", the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said as it upgraded its warnings on Friday.

"The storm has high damage potential, considering the windspeed," IMD director general Laxman Singh Rathore told a press conference, saying it was on the cusp of being upgraded to a super-cyclone, the most powerful form.

Satellite pictures showed an intimidating cloud mass churning across the Bay of Bengal, but weather forecasters said the danger zone was about 150 kilometres (90 miles) wide and would affect coastal Orissa and neighbouring Andhra Pradesh state.

In Orissa's state capital Bhubaneswar, where rain had begun to fall and trees were bending in powerful winds, panic buying saw many shops stripped of food, with memories still strong of the 1999 storm which killed more than 8,000.

"I'm feeling scared and tense. My son is expected to arrive Sunday. Now I think he won't make it," housewife Manjushree Das told AFP.

A major port on the east coast in Paradip said it had ceased all operations and would be shutting down, while local fishermen were ordered to return to the coast and seek shelter.

Tens of thousands of people were being evacuated from their homes in the areas expected to be worst affected around the town of Gopalpur where Phailin is expected to come ashore.

Orissa Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik wrote to the defence ministry appealing for help, saying that "despite preparedness by the state government, the impact of a very severe cyclonic storm requires support of the defence forces".

The air force who assisted with relief efforts after massive flooding in the Himalayas in June, said two emergency teams had been dispatched to Bhubaneswar while transport planes and helicopters are on standby.

The army and navy have been instructed to be prepared to assist the National Disaster Response Force, a statement from the defence ministry said.

The cyclone, currently about 400 kilometres (310 miles) off the coast, has strengthened dramatically in recent days as it heads for an impoverished part of India dotted with shanties and huts with thatched roofs.

It is travelling at about 15 kilometres an hour and measures about 400-500 kilometres in length and breadth, the IMD said.

"We have already deployed our entire disaster mitigation force on pre-storm initiatives," special relief commissioner for Orissa, Pradipta Mohapatra, told AFP.

The 1999 super-cyclone which knocked out power lines, railway links and devastated forest areas packed far higher speeds of up to 300 kilometres an hour and led to a a storm surge of six metres.

A government report on the disaster published in 2009 put the human death toll at 8,243, while 445,000 livestock perished.

"We are fighting against nature. We are better prepared this time, we learnt a lot from 1999," the state's Disaster Management Minister Surya Narayan Patra told NDTV.

"The first priority will be to save people's lives, ensure food and electricity," Patra said.

Cyclones typically form in the Bay of Bengal around this time of year at the end of the steamy monsoon season when the sea temperatures are at their highest.

"The devastation is expected to be less than in 1999," said Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist at India's biggest private forecaster Skymet.

"This time we have the Indian Meteorological Office pinpointing the area of contact quite accurately and people are taking steps," he told AFP.

The last major storm to strike India was last January when Cyclone Thane hit the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, killing 42 people.

str-pmc-adp/ia

© 1994-2013 Agence France-Presse
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479. bwi
9:29 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
I wish Dr. M would post a more detailed analysis of possible storm surge. The headline for on the WU main page is saying a "... Could be Packing a 10-Foot Storm Surge", but I would have to assume that this storm is powerful enough to push water a lot higher than that if the coastal topography was a certain way.
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478. PalmBeachWeather
9:29 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting 474. DonnieBwkGA:
I wonder how an evac is done when almost no one has cars. Do they walk everyone out?
No idea Donnie...I'm sure it's nothing like an evacuation here in the states. Scary
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477. Dakster
9:29 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting 450. MiamiHurricanes09:
Imagine if tropical cyclones never underwent EWRC's...Phailin would easily be a 180kt hypercane at this point.


Those are called annular Hurricanes, which Phailin, thankfully, is not one.
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476. ekogaia
9:29 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Serious mistakes in underestimating this beast - the Indian WS has blown predictions badly and should have learned to err on the side of caution.
The impact zone is going to be badly hit but also the entire heartland of India stands to be seriously impacted by the huge amount of moisture going inland on top of a record monsoon season which is only just finishing off now, which is very late in the year.
This is beyond very serious in its implications.
NOAA surface weather is showing 886mb for the last 2.5 hours - Link
I doubt that is spot on accurate but the pressure is sinister at that scale. This beast could hit as a cat 5 - currently sitting on 7.3 CI!! Yikes.
I hope there is a major evacuation going on - but the losses are still going to be immense in such a populated part of the world.
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475. MrMixon
9:28 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Cyclone Phailin set to batter Odisha, Andhra Pradesh today

Touching wind speeds of 210-220 km an hour, Cyclone Phailin is set to hit the Odisha coast between Paradip and Kalingapatnam with full fury on Saturday evening, whipping up a storm surge up to 10 feet above the tide level posing a threat to low-lying villages.

Anticipating the cyclone's fury, the state government began Odisha's biggest ever evacuation of shifting more than three lakh people out of harm's way as chief minister Naveen Patnaik promised there would be zero casualties. The evacuation is expected to be complete by Saturday morning.

Met sources said the cyclone's exact landfall is likely to be around the popular beach destination of Gopalpur and coastal Odisha as well as inland areas are expected to receive heavy rainfall likely to last till Sunday.

Although the Met is not categorizing Phailin as a "super cyclone" as it is yet to cross the 220 kmph barrier, there is little doubt that Odisha was bracing for a battering with the storm reported just 400 km south east of Gopalpur at 9pm on Friday.

Foreign agencies claimed Indian authorities are underestimating Phailin, quoting London-based Tropical Storm and US Navy's joint typhoon warning centre as forecasting winds up to 315 kmph. Indian agencies, however, said wind speeds are much lower.

As many as 80,000-90,000 people have already been evacuated from the coast in Odisha, and an equal number are expected to be moved out before the Phailin landfall. Andhra Pradesh too has evacuated 65,000 people so far.

Not leaving anything to chance, the state government began evacuating people from coastal districts of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri, Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapada. Those who refused to leave their homes were forcibly taken to safer places. "There are 247 cyclone shelters and 10,000 concrete schools identified to house the villagers. We want to complete the evacuation by Saturday morning, particularly in Ganjam district which is likely to bear the brunt of the cyclone," special relief commissioner P K Mohapatra said.

Full story here: Times of India

---------------------------------

A google maps photo of the coastal town of Gopalpur:

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473. PalmBeachWeather
9:26 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting 472. weathermanwannabe:
Looks like the core of the storm (Phailin) is starting to move onshore but it will take several hours for the eye wall to cross the coast......It's downhill from here on out anywhere near the core. Very large swatch of coast from what we can see.....Unimaginable what must be starting to happen on the ground.
I've been through 3 nasty hurricanes, and one very terrible tornado...These people ,prepared or not, are going to go through hell....
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472. weathermanwannabe
9:22 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Looks like the core of the storm (Phailin) is starting to move onshore but it will take several hours for the eye wall to cross the coast......It's downhill from here on out anywhere near the core. Very large swatch of coast from what we can see.....Unimaginable what must be starting to happen on the ground.
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471. VR46L
9:21 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting 405. Ameister12:

It's very simple. I just got some archive images from the RAMMB site and with those images, made a gif from a "gif-maker" website. :-)


That is really clever! Thanks for telling your secret !

Sorry for appearing rude and not returning the comment until now .... I was otherwize detained :)


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470. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:21 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting 467. NCstu:
Anyone know current central pressure?

Without recon? No. Satellite estimates range from the mid-880s (millibars) to the low-900s.
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469. Patrap
9:21 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
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468. Patrap
9:19 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 925.1mb/134.8kt
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467. NCstu
9:19 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Anyone know current central pressure?
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466. washingtonian115
9:18 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting 463. Stormlover16:

How long has it been raining in DC?
Since Wednesday.
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465. skycycle
9:18 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting 447. Stormlover16:

hurricanehunter27 thanks for those images, absolutely beautiful destruction. And Civicane49, thank you as well, I've done a bit of research but couldn't find anything stronger than the Odisha storm. I read somewhere this is the strongest storm ever in the north indian ocean, and that this will be the first cat-5 in modern indian history


There you go :)

List of the most intense tropical cyclones - Wikipedia
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464. barbamz
9:15 PM GMT on October 11, 2013

New model tracks for landfall of Phailin.
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463. Stormlover16
9:11 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting 462. washingtonian115:
My son has his after school activities canceled.The wind isn't bad here in D.C though,but it is noticable...

How long has it been raining in DC?
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462. washingtonian115
9:09 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting 452. Stormlover16:

Washi, here in south Delaware it's even worse. Probably the worst wind since Saturn hit in March (that storm was crazy) and flooding is horrid in coastal areas. Homecoming has been posteponed, unfortunately :(
My son has his after school activities canceled.The wind isn't bad here in D.C though,but it is noticable...
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461. Stormlover16
9:07 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting 455. sar2401:

You can't have met want you wrote. Destruction is never beautiful. Those satellite images are impressive, awe-inspiring, and even beautiful in their own way, but the destruction these storms cause is never beautiful.

That is not the way I meant it. Though this thing is clearly a disaster of apocalyptic proportions, it most certainly is beautiful. As William Blake said in his "The Tyger", Phailin has "fearful symmetry." Destruction is not beautiful, but this storm certainly is.
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460. Patrap
9:07 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Typhoon 02B Cyclone PHAILIN

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 OCT 2013 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 17:08:27 N Lon : 86:54:22 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 925.1mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : -15.0C Cloud Region Temp : -80.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 95km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.5 degrees


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459. Tropicsweatherpr
9:00 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
The September Climate Report for Puerto Rico/VI is up at my blog

Some rainfall and high temperatures were broken.
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458. GTstormChaserCaleb
9:00 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Good afternoon everyone, well looks like our greatest fears are about to be realized with Phailin, man if you believe in God this would be the best time to say a prayer for the people of India whose lives will likely change forever from this storm. All I can say is best of luck to the people over there, hopefully you have put yourself out of harms way and have found higher ground away from the path of this storm. Just always remember your possessions can be replaced, your life cannot be replaced. This situation reminds me so much of Hurricane Katrina, perhaps even worst than that.
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457. SSideBrac
9:00 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting 397. weathermanwannabe:
I am wondering now who would be considered or willing to be "first" responders from an international aid standpoint in that part of the world......The US has routinely provided assistance in the Caribbean (Haiti comes to mind after the earthquake).

I would hope that England (the former colony issue) or China (also a player in the region) will be the first to get in there with assistance and supplies as needed.

They will need lots of immediate aid in the aftermath and I hope the Indian Military is large enough to sustain and marshal air rescue resources much like our Coast Guard in the after-math of Katrina.


I have no doubt at all in my mind that the International Red Cross, amongst others, are monitoring Phailin very closely and also likely that they may have warned off some Countries that provide Assessment Teams and global response Emergency Response Units to be ready for rapid deployment. However, anyone who has been involved in such Humanitarian Relief knows that getting there is one thing - establishing an effective in country operation (with all attendant infrastructure and resources is quite another - it is not like turning on a tap for instant water. In the first instance, immediate response will have to come from Indian Govt, Indian Red Cross and those Indian based NGOs who may have Warehouses of materials strategically located around India.

I am also sure that if this turns out to be the disaster that all indicators say it will be, that IMHO any British Red Cross Appeal for Funds for the Disaster Relief will be massively and rapidly supported.

It should also be clearly understood that organisations such as Red Cross have to be invited into the Country - they cannot just appear out of the blue!
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456. hurricanehunter27
8:59 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting 451. PalmBeachWeather:
I believe it will be very close to those winds... No matter how much warning they have, this will be a very destructive an fatal storm.
180kt? I don't know that is really stretching it if you are talking about sustained winds. 180kt = 207 mph. I believe it would be the fastest sustained winds for a cyclone anywhere ever. Regardless if it is anywhere near that speed at landfall nothing but splinters would be left.
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455. sar2401
8:58 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting Stormlover16:

hurricanehunter27 thanks for those images, absolutely beautiful destruction. And Civicane49, thank you as well, I've done a bit of research but couldn't find anything stronger than the Odisha storm. I read somewhere this is the strongest storm ever in the north indian ocean, and that this will be the first cat-5 in modern indian history

You can't have met want you wrote. Destruction is never beautiful. Those satellite images are impressive, awe-inspiring, and even beautiful in their own way, but the destruction these storms cause is never beautiful.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
454. HuracanTaino
8:54 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting Tribucanes:
Latest satellite imagery of 98L shows it right at the threshold of TD status. Developing a CDO and this is by far the best its ever looked. Upgrade to 70-80% at the next update?
agree, but knowing them, they won't raised their numbers just yet...
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453. Civicane49
8:54 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Wow

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452. Stormlover16
8:54 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting 449. washingtonian115:
Flooding has/is occuring right now in the D.C area.Their are huge puddles on the side of my street and some low lying roods are flooded making them unsafe.Looks like the rain is here to stay for a good while through most part of the weekend.

Meanwhile here comes the "we've never seen a storm like this in out life time" comments.

Washi, here in south Delaware it's even worse. Probably the worst wind since Saturn hit in March (that storm was crazy) and flooding is horrid in coastal areas. Homecoming has been posteponed, unfortunately :(
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
451. PalmBeachWeather
8:54 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting 450. MiamiHurricanes09:
Imagine if tropical cyclones never underwent EWRC's...Phailin would easily be a 180kt hypercane at this point.
I believe it will be very close to those winds... No matter how much warning they have, this will be a very destructive an fatal storm.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
450. MiamiHurricanes09
8:52 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Imagine if tropical cyclones never underwent EWRC's...Phailin would easily be a 180kt hypercane at this point.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
449. washingtonian115
8:52 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Flooding has/is occuring right now in the D.C area.Their are huge puddles on the side of my street and some low lying roads are flooded making them unsafe.Looks like the rain is here to stay for a good while through most part of the weekend.

Meanwhile here comes the "we've never seen a storm like this in out life time" comments.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
448. Civicane49
8:52 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
11/2030 UTC 17.2N 86.8E T7.0/7.0 PHAILIN
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
447. Stormlover16
8:50 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting 438. hurricanehunter27:


Usagi:


Phailin:


Close but not there yet.
Quoting 441. Civicane49:



If that pans out, it'll be the strongest landfalling cyclone to hit India in terms of wind speed, surpassing the current record of 155 mph from the 1999 Odisha cyclone.

hurricanehunter27 thanks for those images, absolutely beautiful destruction. And Civicane49, thank you as well, I've done a bit of research but couldn't find anything stronger than the Odisha storm. I read somewhere this is the strongest storm ever in the north indian ocean, and that this will be the first cat-5 in modern indian history
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
446. barbamz
8:50 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting 443. BahaHurican:
Afternoon all.

Any TRMM for this storm so far? That would be quite illuminating...



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
445. Jedkins01
8:49 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Quoting 402. bappit:

Cool gif. But implies a specific kind of wobbling. In the northern hemisphere, the wobbles veer off to the north and then come back--as if your gif were running in reverse. So hard to say the storm has turned north if it may have just wobbled that way.


Eye wall of violent tropical cyclones do frequently wobble around, similar to the way a spinning top does, although the science is obviously more complex than that.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
444. DanAlabama
8:48 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Sorry to hear that.

From Jedkins01:


My family also sponsors a child who lives on the coast near the region of projected path :/
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather