About Jeff Masters
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:35 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Extremely dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin has maintained Category 5 strength for six hours, and is expected to remain a Category 5 storm until it is just a few hours from landfall on the northeast coast of India on the Bay of Bengal, according to the 5 pm EDT Friday advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Phailin put on a phenomenal burst of rapid intensification on Thursday, going from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds in just 24 hours, and is now at peak strength of 160 mph, tying it with Super Typhoon Usagi as Earth's strongest tropical cyclone of 2013. Satellite images show that Phailin maintained very intense thunderstorms with cold cloud tops in its eyewall, with the 5 pm EDT Friday satellite estimate of Phailin's central pressure at 911 mb. This makes Phailin equal in strength to the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone, which killed 9,658 people in India's Odisha province. Radar out of Visakhapanam, India shows that heavy rains from the outer bands of Phailin are already affecting the coast, and these bands were bringing rainfall rates of over an inch per hour, as estimated by microwave data from 18 UTC Friday. Phailin is over ocean waters that have warmed since Thursday, and are now 29 - 30°C. These warm waters extend to a lesser depth than before, and ocean heat content has dropped to a moderate 20 - 40 kJ/cm^2. Wind shear remains low, 5 - 10 knots, and Phailin has strong upper-level outflow, thanks to an anticyclone positioned in the upper atmosphere over the cyclone.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite image overlaid on an infrared satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 18 UTC on October 11, 2013. At the time, Phailin was a Category 5 storm with winds of 160 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Forecast for Phailin
Phailin is likely to be the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. The models are in tight agreement that Phailin will make landfall in Northeast India on Saturday between 09 - 15 UTC about 100 miles to the southwest of where the 1999 cyclone hit. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting that a storm surge of up to 3.5 meters (eleven feet) will hit along a swath a coast to the right of where the center makes landfall. I expect that this is an underestimate, since the 1999 Odisha Cyclone brought a storm surge of 5.9 meters (19 feet) to the coast, and Phailin is larger in areal extent and just as strong. The region of the coast where Phailin is expected to hit is not as low-lying, though, which should keep the death toll due to storm surge much lower compared to the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, where more than 70% of the deaths occurred due to the storm surge. Deforestation of the coastal mangroves in the storm surge zone was associated with increased death toll in that storm, according to Das and Vincent (2009), who concluded, "villages with wider mangroves between them and the coast experienced significantly fewer deaths than ones with narrower or no mangroves.". I expect that Phailin will weaken slightly before hitting the coast, due to interaction with land, and hit as a Category 4 storm with winds of 145 - 155 mph. The 1999 Odisha Cyclone hit land with top winds of 155 mph.
Figure 2. Elevation of the Odisha region of India, with the track of the 1999 Odisha cyclone and forecast track of Phailin overlaid. Phailin is predicted to hit a region of the coast about 100 miles to the southwest of where the 1999 cyclone hit. The coast is not as low-lying to the southwest, which should result in a lower storm surge death toll. The greatest storm surge occurs along the coast to the right of where the center crosses. Image credit: http://www.globalwarmingart.com
Phailin's heavy rains will be capable of causing very destructive flooding; the 00Z Friday rainfall forecast from the HWRF model (Figure 3) calls for a significant swath of 8 - 16" of rain along the path of Phailin inland. Rains from the 1999 Odisha cyclone killed more than 2,000 people in the town of Padmapur, located more than 150 miles from the coast. Deforestation was cited as a contributing cause to these destructive floods that killed 36% of the town's population.
Figure 3. The 00Z Friday rainfall forecast from the HWRF model calls for a significant swath of 8 - 16" of rain along the path of Phailin inland. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/GFDL.
India's tropical cyclone history
There is good reason to be concerned when a major tropical cyclone forms in the Bay of Bengal. Twenty-six of the thirty-five deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms. During the past two centuries, 42% of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27% have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995.) Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a detailed post on India's tropical cyclone history.
References
Kalsi, S.R., N. Jayanthi N, and S.K. Roy Bhowmik, 2004, "A Review of Different Storm Surge Models and Estimated Storm Surge Height in Respect of Orissa Supercyclonic Storm of 29 October, 1999," New Delhi: Indian Meteorological Department.
Nicholls, R.J.N., N. Mimura, J.C. Topping, 1995, "Climate change in south and south-east Asia: some implications for coastal areas," J Glob Environ Eng 1995;1:137–54.
Das, S., and J.R. Vincent, 2009, "Mangroves protected villages and reduced death toll during Indian super cyclone", Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 May 5; 106(18): 7357–7360. Published online 2009 April 20. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0810440106
Figure 4. Radar image of Typhoon Nari over Luzon Island in the Philippines, taken at 12:53 am local time on October 12, 2013. Image credit: DOST - Project NOAH
Major Typhoon Nari hits the Philippines
Typhoon Nari hit the main Philippine island of Luzon Friday night local time as a Category 3 typhoon with 115 mph winds. The core of the storm passed about 80 miles north of the capital of Manila, and the storm dumped torrential rains in excess of ten inches to the northeast of Manilla, according to satellite estimates. Passage over Luzon weakened Nari, and the typhoon is now emerging into the South China Sea between the Philippines and Vietnam as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Nari has about two days over water to re-intensify before making a second landfall in Vietnam around 18 UTC on Monday. The 5 pm EDT Friday Joint Typhoon Warning Center advisory predicts that Nari will re-intensify to 110 mph winds, just below Category 3 strength.
Jeff Masters
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
792. sunlinepr
5:47 PM GMT on October 12, 2013True,,,,If we were in the Pac, would we be posting here "What a wonderfull season we are having"?
Really, this year leaving out the BOC systems, this is one of the best seasons ever in the Atl...
791. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:45 PM GMT on October 12, 2013as each system moves along
790. barbamz
5:45 PM GMT on October 12, 2013One heck of waves. I'm seasick from looking at this RAW video about Phailin earlier.
789. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:44 PM GMT on October 12, 2013788. nwobilderburg
5:44 PM GMT on October 12, 2013787. FunnelVortex
5:42 PM GMT on October 12, 2013At least 86 had some majors.
786. GainesvilleGator
5:42 PM GMT on October 12, 2013'The storm, though, remained exceedingly strong and dangerous. A few hours before it hit land, the eye of the storm collapsed, spreading the hurricane force winds out over a larger area and giving it a "bigger damage footprint," said Jeff Masters, meteorology director at the U.S.-based private Weather Underground.
"It's probably a bad thing it was doing this when it made landfall. Much of the housing in India is unable to withstand even a much weaker hurricane," Masters said.
He also said coasts would not be alone in suffering heavy damage. "This is a remarkably strong storm. It's going to carry hurricane-force winds inland for about 12 hours, which is quite unusual," Masters said.'
785. Stormwatch247
5:38 PM GMT on October 12, 2013784. barbamz
5:35 PM GMT on October 12, 2013Cyclone Phailin makes landfall at 200 kmph but not a super storm, says IMD
First Post India by FP Staff 59 mins ago
The Indian MeT department has confirmed that Cyclone Phailin has made landfall near the coast of Gopalpur, Odisha. “The very severe cyclonic storm has touched land near Gopalpur at around 200km per hour”, said LS Rathore of the IMD.
Rathore told reporters that wind speeds had intensified slightly since the system hit land. He added that the storm was bringing heavy to very heavy rain in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, adding that the ‘serious’ situation would continue for the next six hours. “Landfall has started happening near Gopalpur, it will take about an hour for the eye of the storm to pass”, Rathore said, adding that winds would intensify in speed when that happened. Rathore also said that Phailin was in line with IMD predictions that it would be a ‘level 6′ storm. He added that it was still not a ‘super storm’. “Technically the maximum winds have to be in excess of 220 kmph for it to be classified as a super storm”, he said. ...
Whole article see link above.
783. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:33 PM GMT on October 12, 2013782. sar2401
5:32 PM GMT on October 12, 2013This has been about the best season I've seen in SE Alabama. Enough sort of tropical activity to give us rain when we need it, no hurricanes, almost no tornadoes, not too hot, no one's home or town got flattened....except for losing a big branch on my pear tree during a wimpy windstorm, it's hard to see how it could have been a batter season.
781. CaribBoy
5:31 PM GMT on October 12, 2013I know.
780. TropicalAnalystwx13
5:30 PM GMT on October 12, 2013779. Tropicsweatherpr
5:29 PM GMT on October 12, 2013TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE STEADILY BECOMING UNFAVORABLE...AND DEVELOPMENT IS
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO
FORECASTER STEWART
778. FunnelVortex
5:29 PM GMT on October 12, 2013We saw some neat monsters, didn't we? :)
777. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:26 PM GMT on October 12, 2013776. sar2401
5:26 PM GMT on October 12, 2013BTW, when see references to "Lakh" in Indian news articles, one Lakh is the same as 100,000. South Asian languages don't have any easy way to refer to large numbers, so words like "lakh" will be commonly seen. Even more confusingly, in scientific notation, it's written as "1,00,000", so don't get that confused with one million if you see it in an article from India.
775. TropicalAnalystwx13
5:25 PM GMT on October 12, 2013Yes.
774. whitewabit
5:25 PM GMT on October 12, 2013its how you set your filter ..
773. FunnelVortex
5:22 PM GMT on October 12, 2013772. Tazmanian
5:21 PM GMT on October 12, 2013771. PanhandleChuck
5:21 PM GMT on October 12, 2013LOL
770. FunnelVortex
5:21 PM GMT on October 12, 2013But Wilma is the most intense storm in the Atlantic during the satellite era, right?
769. PanhandleChuck
5:20 PM GMT on October 12, 2013Exactly, probably will defy the odds LOL
768. thunderfrance
5:20 PM GMT on October 12, 2013767. hydrus
5:19 PM GMT on October 12, 2013766. TropicalAnalystwx13
5:19 PM GMT on October 12, 2013Wilma bottomed out at 882 millibars, though there's a possibility it could have been a little lower. The recon plane left a few hours before peak intensity.
765. FunnelVortex
5:18 PM GMT on October 12, 2013Well, am el ninio could form....
764. hydrus
5:18 PM GMT on October 12, 2013763. PanhandleChuck
5:17 PM GMT on October 12, 2013762. FunnelVortex
5:16 PM GMT on October 12, 2013Didn't Wilma come close to that minimum pressure?
761. Tropicsweatherpr
5:15 PM GMT on October 12, 2013760. hurricanes2018
5:12 PM GMT on October 12, 2013759. TropicalAnalystwx13
5:08 PM GMT on October 12, 2013758. sar2401
5:05 PM GMT on October 12, 2013We'll see what happens after the news starts coming out now that the typhoon has made landfall. The government should have been able to do a better job of it, since the coast there is not as low lying and swampy as it is further north. However, the Indian government is both incompetent and corrupt when it comes to disaster response. I'll certainly hope it's better this time, but I'm not holding my breath.
757. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:04 PM GMT on October 12, 2013756. beell
5:03 PM GMT on October 12, 2013similar to
your posts.
;-)
755. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:03 PM GMT on October 12, 2013754. CaribBoy
5:02 PM GMT on October 12, 2013753. TropicalAnalystwx13
5:01 PM GMT on October 12, 2013752. NCstu
5:00 PM GMT on October 12, 2013751. sar2401
5:00 PM GMT on October 12, 2013Forecasts for 7-10 days out are nearly worthless when it come to track and intensity, so take that into account with what I'm going to write. 98L is not predicted to develop into more than tropical depression by any of the major models. It should get turned more northwest over the next few days and then north, following a path similar to Jerry of a few weeks ago. If that occurs, your cruise should have no problems. The best thing to do is keep in touch with your cruise company on a daily basis. The major companies have good tropical mets on staff, and they don't like to endanger customers or lose revenue. If 98L does develop and moves toward the Antilles, the company will probably reposition the ship to some place like Fort Lauderdale or New Orleans and change the itinerary to the Western Caribbean and Mexico. Between the cruise ship company and the the NHC, you'll get the best information on both the weather and the effects on your cruise.
750. LargoFl
4:58 PM GMT on October 12, 2013749. Doppler22
4:56 PM GMT on October 12, 2013Good. It deffinitly (I never spell that word right) shows that India is much better prepared this time.
748. unknowncomic
4:52 PM GMT on October 12, 2013747. barbamz
4:52 PM GMT on October 12, 2013746. SLU
4:51 PM GMT on October 12, 2013You will be just fine.
745. LargoFl
4:49 PM GMT on October 12, 2013744. Sfloridacat5
4:49 PM GMT on October 12, 2013And that radar image is 50 minutes old.
743. beell
4:47 PM GMT on October 12, 2013The beach at Gopalpur. Perhaps most of the town is above 20' msl. The exception would be along the rivers drainages that meet the sea-which don't appear to be densely populated. A fairly easy evac for authorities with good cooperation.
742. Articuno
4:46 PM GMT on October 12, 2013There's still dry air.