Typhoon Wipha's 32 Inches of Rain Kills 17 in Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:59 PM GMT on October 16, 2013

Typhoon Wipha roared past Japan on Tuesday as a Category 1 typhoon, bringing destructive winds and high rains that triggered flooding being blamed for at least 17 deaths. Most of the deaths occurred on Izu Oshima island, about 75 miles south of Tokyo. An astonishing 32.44" (824 mm) fell in just 23 hours on the island, triggering flash floods and mudslides that killed 16 people and left 50 missing. During one incredibly wet 6-hour period, 549.5 mm fell, setting a new 6-hour precipitation record for Japan. The previous record was 502.0 mm at Tarama, Okinawa, on April 28, 1988. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the 24-hour total at Oshima Island was the third highest 24-hour rainfall for Japan on record; the record is 851.5 mm at Yanase (Kochi Prefecture) on 19 July 2011, and 2nd place is the 844 mm that fell at Takeshi (Nara) on 1 August 1982. Tokyo received 9.69" (246 mm) of rain in 19 hours from Wipha, with winds that reached 50 mph, gusting to 72 mph. At the time Wipha was deluging Tokyo, the typhoon was merging with a cold front and undergoing the transition to an extratropical storm--the same process Hurricane Sandy underwent as it approached landfall in New Jersey in October 2012. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the center of Wipha lifted up copious amounts of tropical moisture over a cold front over Japan, resulting the near-record rainfall amounts observed.


Figure 1. A house and an electric pole smashed by large rocks from a collapsed slope caused by heavy rain in Kamakura, suburban Tokyo on October 16, 2013. JIJI PRESS/AFP/Getty Images


Figure 2. Extreme rainfall of 33.44" in 24 hours from Typhoon Wipha hit Oshima Island, Japan, about 75 miles south of Tokyo, on October 16, 2013. At least 16 people died in this landslide, and 50 are missing. JIJI PRESS/AFP/Getty Images

Tropical Storm Francisco is headed towards Japan
It's been an active October for typhoons in the Western Pacific, and there is at least one more typhoon on the way. Tropical Storm Francisco has formed in the waters east of the Philippines, and is forecast to become a major Category 4 typhoon by Sunday as it heads north-northwest towards Japan. Both the GFS and European models predict that Francisco will come very close to Japan on Wednesday, October 23. Satellite images show that Francisco has already developed an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops, and is strengthening. Francisco's formation gives the Western Pacific 27 named storms so far in 2013. That is the average number of named storms the Western Pacific sees during an entire year. The last time there were more than 27 tropical storms or typhoons in the West Pacific was in 2004, when there were 32.

Wipha's place in history
Wipha is the fourth named storm to hit Japan so far in 2013, and the deadliest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004. The other named storms to hit Japan in 2013 were Tropical Storm Man-Yi on September 16, Tropical Storm Toraji on September 4, and Typhoon Danas, which hit Okinawa on October 7. An average of 2.8 tropical storms or typhoons per year hit Japan during the period 1951 - 2003. Japan's record busiest year was 2004, when ten named storms hit, six of them at Category 1 or higher strength. Jeffrey Hayes has put together a nice summary of Japan's typhoon history. The CIMSS Satellite Blog has an interesting analysis of Wipha.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days. NHC is giving 10% odds that a blob of disturbed weather near Bermuda headed north to northeast out to sea will develop.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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583. yqt1001
7:07 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 578. hydrus:
This looks like winter to me..:)


Winter sucks though. :(
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
582. Neapolitan
4:05 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 581. SCConiferousForest:

I wouldn't go that far as to suggest that. Last time I checked they don't hand out high level degrees in atmospheric science for being a dum-dum. Maybe at IFAIL U. He is very well versed in weather....more so than many on here. Doc Masters doesn't have a degree in climatology, niether does Joe B. But he knows just as much as Doc M. if not more...

Thanks for the reply though. ;) I think we are in the blog next door...doc wrote a new one. Maybe we can discuss in there...
FWIW, there's absolutely no rule that states we must move over to a new blog entry when it's posted, so if it's all the same to you, I'll keep this here.

So long as you're comparing educational experience, you should know that JB has a Bachelor degree in Meteorology, while Dr. Masters holds a PhD in meteorology (hence the "Dr." part, something that is conspicuously absent from JB's title). The difference is roughly equivalent to an eighth-grader and a high school graduate. FYI...
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580. Neapolitan
3:39 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 576. SCConiferousForest:
if i had a nickel for everytime you skate around the truth, i would be a rich southern bell. your obsession with JB is scary...... is it the muscles? the fame? the popularity???????????
I wouldn't call it obsession; more a disappointment. And it's based only on his oft-demonstrated, ideologically-driven lack of understanding of the planet's climate systems, which is inversely proportional to the knowledge he seems to believe he has...
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579. PensacolaDoug
3:23 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 575. bappit:

JB is a poster child for narcissism.





Nah, Obama is.
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578. hydrus
3:06 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
This looks like winter to me..:)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
577. 1900hurricane
3:00 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 572. WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
575. bappit
2:55 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 535. DealWithIt:
?

JB is a poster child for narcissism.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
574. 12george1
2:53 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 524. SFLWeatherman:
The forecast for next Thursday Night!!:)
Low of 54F.

Where are you getting that information? None of the forecasts I see even have temperatures below 60F.
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573. Neapolitan
2:50 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 535. DealWithIt:

Every single (and I mean every single) chance you get to attack and smear JB you get you take. Every time. It never fails with you. Oh, except when he is right. Then, you are silent. But when he is wrong - and yes, he is like any other meterologist - you pounce on it like a lion on prey.

I know deep down you know that JB is probably more correct that you would like to realize. And that eats you up inside. That kills ya. You wanna know why? Because he is such an outspoken person in regards to not agreeing with everything you believe in with GW.

I can see right through you. It's very easy. And you wanna know what? Most people can too. You post with a big sign on your chest saying "Don't disagree with me about my GW theory" or I will degrade, belittle, and undermine another's credibility. You post things on here intentionally to piss people off.

Why do you live like that??
I see you've posted this exact same comment in the admin blog. I want you to know that, while I'm flattered I am the sole subject of 40% of the comments made by a member who's been here two years, such attention makes me genuinely uncomfortable.

Now, I generally don't respond to such ad hominem attacks, as a) they are against forum rules, and b) they pretty much speak for themselves without additional commentary from moi. However, I have to take issue with a few things you said.

1) I've made 12,000 plus comments. Of those, JB has probably been the primary or secondary subject maybe three dozen times. Therefore, your statement that I take "every single (and I mean every single) chance [I] get to attack and smear JB" is obviously far from the truth. And the same could be said had JB been the subject of three-hundred--or even three-thousand--of those comments. Know what I mean?

2) I have given JB his due when it's been called for. It's just that it's so seldom called for that you most likely missed it.

3) As has been amply demonstrated here and elsewhere, I save my belittling for those who exhibit a desire to speak out against the science of climate change. True skeptics--of which there are very few--get my respect. Those who are new to the issue and have basic and innocent questions get my kind attention. But those who insist on repeating oft-debunked and discredited blather aren't often treated so nicely. Just think of it as my little gift to society... ;-)

4) So far as "undermining another's credibility", I seldom bother, as the people I'm talking about have usually already done a far better job on their own than I could ever do.

Again, thanks for your interest. Have a nice day...
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572. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:48 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
571. StormTrackerScott
2:39 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 563. Naga5000:


Yeah, I woke up and my screened in patio was completely soaked.


This one guy from S FL says it was 62 last night and that makes no sense that it was 10 to 12 degrees warmer up in C FL.
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570. StormTrackerScott
2:38 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 564. SFLWeatherman:
I got down to 62 lest night!:)



In the low to mid 70's all last night. Makes no sense that it was 62 in West Palm Beach when it was 72 in Orlando for a low. Maybe your temp gauge was by the fridge.
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569. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:37 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Finally I found what I was looking for. :)

Computer models for Hurricane Charley.



Legend:
AVNO (GFS) - Dark Green
BAMD - Purple
BAMM - Dark Red (closest to actual track)
BAMS - Peach
CLIP - Light Green
CLIP5 - Turquiose (outlier)
CMC - Blue
GFDL - Light Pink
LBAR - Pink
NOGAPS - Green
SHIP - Orange
UKMET - Light Blue

Basically, there seemed to have been a common misconception that the forecast models had completely blown the storm, when that wasn't totally true, the fact is some of the models indeed had Charley going over SW FL. rather than further up the West Coast. Problem is people focus too much on the line when SW FL. was in the cone of uncertainty when Charley had emerged into the GOM, North of Cuba.
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568. RitaEvac
2:34 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Guam

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
567. CaribBoy
2:34 PM GMT on October 17, 2013


Really looks like an EL NINO. Dry.

Lol it reminds me of 2009... but unfortunately it doesn't look like 2014 will be another 2010 in terms of rainfall...
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566. PensacolaDoug
2:31 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 557. Naga5000:


We are all just secondary handles of Neapolitan, obviously. ;)

On a side note, is it getting solipsistic in here, or is it just me? :rimshot:





553 is a fair question.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
565. CaribBoy
2:29 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Well...

Driest september ever recorded : 2012.

2nd driest september : 2013.

I DON'T LIKE THAT!!! HOPEFULLY IT'S NOT A TREND...

So far october 2013 is very dry! The little rain at the beginning of the month didn't last, and the dry weather came back in force. THANKS 98L WE APPRECIATE (irony... of course)!
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564. SFLWeatherman
2:29 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
I got down to 62 lest night!:)
Quoting 562. StormTrackerScott:
Dewpoints into the low to mid 70's today.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
563. Naga5000
2:24 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 562. StormTrackerScott:
Dewpoints into the low to mid 70's today.



Yeah, I woke up and my screened in patio was completely soaked.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
562. StormTrackerScott
2:23 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Dewpoints into the low to mid 70's today.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
561. SLU
2:22 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
560. StormTrackerScott
2:21 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 544. LargoFl:
Scott may have been right,rain chances going up in the 7-day..


Hey Largo, Remember what I said yesterday.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
559. Andrebrooks
2:19 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 558. HurriHistory:
The tropics this morning are as dead as dead can be. What a bust of a season. Ugh!
I agree.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
558. HurriHistory
2:17 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
The tropics this morning are as dead as dead can be. What a bust of a season. Ugh!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
557. Naga5000
2:13 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 553. PensacolaDoug:



Why would you be answering for the ice cream man? Hmmmm..


We are all just secondary handles of Neapolitan, obviously. ;)

On a side note, is it getting solipsistic in here, or is it just me? :rimshot:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
556. JohnLonergan
2:12 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 552. AussieStorm:
Newspaper photo's from down here...











I saw this from from the Sidney Morning Herald:

Danger rockets to catastrophic as winds catch bureau unawares

he strength of Thursday's winds caught authorities on the hop, with the fire danger only rated "severe" rather than "extreme", as had been forecast for the previous Sunday's heat spike.
Bankstown, for instance, recorded 95 km/h winds, the strongest there for at least 10 years, said Ben McBurney, a meteorologist with Weatherzone.

"The bureau didn't expect wind speeds to go quite as high as they did," he said.
Advertisement
Humidity across the basin also fell as low as 10 per cent. "That's probably what led to these fires getting out of control," said McBurney.
Many areas saw their fire danger ratings rocket to "catastrophic", including for Richmond and Sydney Airport. Camden also had a "catastrophic" rating, the highest in 11 years.


Read more:Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
555. hurricanes2018
1:59 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
554. hurricanes2018
1:56 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
fall weather is here!!! we have a new INVEST 99L to this morning!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
553. PensacolaDoug
1:55 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 537. JohnLonergan:


Why should I waste my time any more than I already have? You have already demonstrated yourself to be disingenuous with respect to the subject and topic of this post. There is no there there.



Why would you be answering for the ice cream man? Hmmmm..
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552. AussieStorm
1:53 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Newspaper photo's from down here...









Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
551. LargoFl
1:51 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
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550. LargoFl
1:39 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
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549. LargoFl
1:37 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Ok Fantasyland But..................
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
547. LargoFl
1:34 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
ok so next week gets interesting around here huh...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
546. LargoFl
1:31 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Hmmm could get a bit stormy..this the following saturday..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
545. LargoFl
1:28 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
544. LargoFl
1:26 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Scott may have been right,rain chances going up in the 7-day..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
543. FunnelVortex
1:22 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 542. nrtiwlnvragn:


Careful, with the "new" blog topic rules the only thing you can currently post is on "hurricane". "Cold" is off topic :)


These new "rules" wont last long. :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
542. nrtiwlnvragn
1:20 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 540. GeoffreyWPB:


Video Forecast for West Palm Beach


Careful, with the "new" blog topic rules the only thing you can currently post is on "hurricane". "Cold" is off topic :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
541. LargoFl
1:17 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
540. GeoffreyWPB
1:16 PM GMT on October 17, 2013


Video Forecast for West Palm Beach

Hurricanes can form on the end of stalled cold fronts.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
539. LargoFl
1:16 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 524. SFLWeatherman:
The forecast for next Thursday Night!!:)
Low of 54F.
I cant wait..wont That feel great huh
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
537. JohnLonergan
1:10 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 535. DealWithIt:

Every single (and I mean every single) chance you get to attack and smear JB you get you take. Every time. It never fails with you. Oh, except when he is right. Then, you are silent. But when he is wrong - and yes, he is like any other meterologist - you pounce on it like a lion on prey.

I know deep down you know that JB is probably more correct that you would like to realize. And that eats you up inside. That kills ya. You wanna know why? Because he is such an outspoken person in regards to not agreeing with everything you believe in with GW.

I can see right through you. It's very easy. And you wanna know what? Most people can too. You post with a big sign on your chest saying "Don't disagree with me about my GW theory" or I will degrade, belittle, and undermine another's credibility. You post things on here intentionally to piss people off.

Why do you live like that??


Why should I waste my time any more than I already have? You have already demonstrated yourself to be disingenuous with respect to the subject and topic of this post. There is no there there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
536. FunnelVortex
1:04 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 535. DealWithIt:

Every single (and I mean every single) chance you get to attack and smear JB you get you take. Every time. It never fails with you. Oh, except when he is right. Then, you are silent. But when he is wrong - and yes, he is like any other meterologist - you pounce on it like a lion on prey.

I know deep down you know that JB is probably more correct that you would like to realize. And that eats you up inside. That kills ya. You wanna know why? Because he is such an outspoken person in regards to not agreeing with everything you believe in with GW.

I can see right through you. It's very easy. And you wanna know what? Most people can too. You post with a big sign on your chest saying "Don't disagree with me about my GW theory" or I will degrade, belittle, and undermine another's credibility. You post things on here intentionally to piss people off.

Why do you live like that??


Because Nea is the type who wants to think he is always right, and doesn't like being conflicted.

Honestly, the same can be applied to all the ice age doomers on this blog as well.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
534. wunderkidcayman
1:00 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Quoting 531. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning everyone...quiet on the lightning front.



Possible storm in the Western Caribbean by the end of the month. With all these fronts coming down it makes sense that something will try to develop on the tail end of that and meander around.


I can't wait it's starting to get boring
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
533. weathermanwannabe
12:59 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Good Morning. Just noting that the Pacific Basin certainly has not disappointed (both the E-Pac and West-Pac) this year as opposed to the Atlantic season; not the respective football conferences.........
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather