Super Typhoon Francisco Becomes Earth's 3rd Category 5 Storm of 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2013

Mighty Super Typhoon Francisco has intensified to become Earth's third Category 5 storm of 2013. The other two Cat 5s were Cyclone Phailin, which hit India earlier this month at Category 3 or 4 strength, killing 44 and causing at least $1 billion in damage, and Super Typhoon Usagi, which hit China just east of Hong Kong as a Category 2 storm on September 22, killing 50 and causing at least $3.8 billion in damage. Satellite loops show a spectacular, well-organized storm with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, Francisco is likely to stay at Category 5 strength until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. Francisco is headed northwest towards Japan, and will likely stay at Category 4 or stronger intensity until Tuesday, when the storm will encounter higher wind shear and cooler waters. By the time Franciso makes its closest approach to Japan on Thursday, weakening to Category 2 or lesser strength is likely. In their Saturday morning runs, both the European model and GFS model predicted that Francisco would turn northeastwards on Wednesday, and hit Japan on Thursday. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, though, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 19, 2013. At the time, Francisco was a Category 5 storm with top winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

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Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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799. txjac
3:37 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 767. VR46L:


I found that show one of the least funny comedies ever ...

But this is a cool fish (hopefully)



Come on now ...you have to at least love Robert? He was funny to me ...especially the episode when he "thought" he was black and dating Judy ...lol. My daughter never liked it either ...didnt think it was funny ...however she liked Marie!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
798. 1900hurricane
2:55 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 797. hydrus:
Yep. A rather interesting surprise becoming a major. It was forecast never to become a hurricane..I think...Another reason that people may remember it is I do not believe there has ever been a Hurricane Michael in the Atlantic...Maybe never anywhere..

There was a Hurricane Michael in 2001.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
797. hydrus
1:25 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 790. wunderkidcayman:

Umm Hurricane Michael was a fish and people still remember it
Yep. A rather interesting surprise becoming a major. It was forecast never to become a hurricane..I think...Another reason that people may remember it is I do not believe there has ever been a Hurricane Michael in the Atlantic...Maybe never anywhere..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
796. Andrebrooks
1:23 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
795. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:22 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
794. Andrebrooks
1:22 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
793. ncstorm
1:21 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
GOOD MORNING!

Not sure if this is a severe weather threat shaping place but it will be some heavy rain for the southern states at least..

00z GFS didnt show this scenario but the 06z GFS did while the 00z CMC shows it as well-240 hours





Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
792. debaat
1:18 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Thanks Dr. Masters for being a leader in the world of concern for life. I find it amazing that people who deny AGW also are unwilling to devote any significant resources to cleaning up our water, cleaning up our air, finding ways to live that support homeostasis of our planet, or reducing waste. All of these things are obvious to anybody with a brain. Doing that will help the planet in myriad ways while also helping to slow AGW. Everything we can imagine benefits from doing that! Am I the only one that thinks that AGW denying is just a red herring, following a politically motivated issue instead of saying the truth, which is: "I don't care?"
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
791. wunderkidcayman
1:16 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 789. Andrebrooks:
Really.

Lol
The only reason he says that is because he don't got no hurricane that gonna be on to of him lol
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790. wunderkidcayman
1:12 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 786. CaribBoy:
90L = FISH ENTERTAINMENT. TO BE FORGOTTEN;

Umm Hurricane Michael was a fish and people still remember it
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789. Andrebrooks
1:11 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 786. CaribBoy:
90L = FISH ENTERTAINMENT. TO BE FORGOTTEN;
Really.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
788. Andrebrooks
1:09 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Raymond
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787. VR46L
1:09 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 783. wunderkidcayman:

I hope it does we need a number under the major hurricanes and it's best if a major hurricane was one out to see so it don't kill nobody but a few fish


What about the Mermaids ?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
786. CaribBoy
1:09 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
90L = FISH ENTERTAINMENT. TO BE FORGOTTEN;
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
785. Andrebrooks
1:08 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 774. washingtonian115:
While we were all paying attention to the pacific the Atlantic gave us a little surprise.What if 90L pulls a Micheal?
It would be some fun, it actually looks pretty good right, it should be a storm now.Or at least a depression.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
784. weathermanwannabe
1:07 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 780. Andrebrooks:
I think at some point,I think two weeks ago,the GFS was showing multiple storms.


Interesting to note that they are both located in the only area in the Central Atlantic where sheer is relatively low (Link).

They are too far north/cooler waters for any significant development and surrounded by hostile sheer all around............ "Short lived" is a good summary given those overall synoptic conditions.
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783. wunderkidcayman
1:07 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 774. washingtonian115:
While we were all paying attention to the pacific the Atlantic gave us a little surprise.What if 90L pulls a Micheal?

I hope it does we need a number under the major hurricanes and it's best if a major hurricane was one out to see so it don't kill nobody but a few fish
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
782. Andrebrooks
1:06 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
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781. VR46L
1:06 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 774. washingtonian115:
While we were all paying attention to the pacific the Atlantic gave us a little surprise.What if 90L pulls a Micheal?


Its cute looking but I doubt a Michael ... Front is going to take the fun away ..

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780. Andrebrooks
1:04 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 779. weathermanwannabe:
The other area SW of the AOI is also spinning around....Looks like "Dueling Banjos" out there at the moment...........
I think at some point,I think two weeks ago,the GFS was showing multiple storms.
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779. weathermanwannabe
1:02 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
The other area SW of the AOI is also spinning around....Looks like "Dueling Banjos" out there at the moment...........
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778. GeoffreyWPB
1:02 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Excerpt from Miami NWS Disco...

MODELS STILL DEPICT A COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND INCREASE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER A DEEP
MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH WILL OVERRUN THE FRONT AND TO WHAT
EXTENT. THE GFS KEEPS A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONT SHOVING THE MOISTURE SOUTH AND
OUT OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS
DEPICTING MORE OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A GOOD SURGE OF DRY
AIR FUNNELING INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

EITHER WAY IT APPEARS AS THOUGH A DRY PATTERN WILL THEN ENSUE LATE
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MORE MILD TEMPERATURES.

For West Palm Beach...

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777. washingtonian115
1:01 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 764. GeoffreyWPB:
Atlantic Satellite...

Besides 90L the Atlantic is practically dead..
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776. hurricanes2018
1:00 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
invest 90L!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
775. Halcyon19
1:00 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 756. Tropicsweatherpr:
Does anyone know if Raymond is the latest in date (October 21) to become a major in EPAC?


I'm relatively sure that Kenneth in 2011 became a category 4 in November.
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774. washingtonian115
12:59 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
While we were all paying attention to the pacific the Atlantic gave us a little surprise.What if 90L pulls a Micheal?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
773. Patrap
12:57 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Area forecast discussion for the Florida Keys
National Weather Service Key West Florida
353 am EDT Monday Oct 21 2013

Discussion...

currently...
only a few very light showers are crossing the Keys area at this hour
under mostly clear skies and light and variable winds. From satellite
we see the cold Arctic air diving through the intermountain west
behind the parent low over south central Canada and the western Great
Lakes. The remains of a weak trough extend from the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia
peninsula...southwest across the northern Gulf of Mexico...and out
over Mexico...merging with east Pacific Tropical Storm Raymond.

Short term

(today through Tuesday night)...
no changes made or expected in the near term forecast with periods of
brief surging winds becoming gentle to moderate during the nocturnal
cycle the next few nights. The lower troposphere will remain quite
moist through Tuesday night while the vertical wind profile indicates
a propensity for island cloud line formation. This would also promote
an higher potential for waterspouts developing underneath cloud lines
with flat dark bases. Will address this possibility in the hazardous
weather outlook.

&&

Long term

(wednesday through sunday)...
the strong upper low over the western Great Lakes will traverse
southern Canada Wednesday dropping a trough trough the eastern United
States. Several short wave disturbances will follow through early
Thursday as the polar and subtropical jets phase near the coastal
Carolinas. Most of this energy will not make it through the Keys
forecast area...but will hang up over the Keys Thursday through
Saturday night. A strong surface ridge will build in over the deep
south which will substantially increase winds across the Keys early
Thursday...with the ridge waning slightly Thursday afternoon...then
re-intensifying Thursday night. Expecting breezy northeast winds Friday
through the weekend. Rain chances are the one factor in question and
will keep chance showers and thunderstorms...but make this the higher
end of the chance range at 50 percent Thursday and Friday due to the
lingering boundary.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
772. weathermanwannabe
12:57 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Good Morning.

The story of 2013 continues.........Another E-Pac system late in their season and NHC finally keeping it real in the discussion: A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY

Don't need to hear all the comments later about a "waste" of name; if it meets the criteria, it gets the name for 4 hours................
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771. LargoFl
12:54 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
770. wunderkidcayman
12:53 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Oh my gosh that was a huge turn around
HIGH
Lorenzo here he comes
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211137
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE
LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THEN TURNS EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
769. LargoFl
12:52 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Perhaps the tail ends of these fronts May..start up something...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
768. LargoFl
12:50 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
they keep on blaring warnings here..cold front coming..where?....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
767. VR46L
12:49 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 754. FunnelVortex:
Everybody loves raymond!



I found that show one of the least funny comedies ever ...

But this is a cool fish (hopefully)

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
766. LargoFl
12:48 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
765. VR46L
12:47 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 743. HardTimesHenry:

It's over.


Hmm I guess it aint over till its over

But with 90L showing some teeth Its not completely over.....



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764. GeoffreyWPB
12:43 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Atlantic Satellite...

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763. HuracandelCaribe
12:42 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 760. stoormfury:
interesting AOI near 10N 28W. Ihas some spin


yep
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
762. Tropicsweatherpr
12:41 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
12z Best Track for Raymond.

EP, 17, 2013102112, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1023W, 105, 954, HU
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761. hurricanes2018
12:40 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 757. iloveweather15:
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

RAYMOND CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A CIRCULAR AND DISTINCT EYE WITH A SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE
PATTERN SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT
105 KT...FOLLOWING THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT. THIS MAKES RAYMOND A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...THE FIRST
MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC 2013 SEASON. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THIS CYCLONE HAS EXHIBITED AN IMPRESSIVE
PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING...AS IT WAS ONLY A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

THE HURRICANE HAS COME TO A HALT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ABOUT 100
N MI SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE STEERING CURRENTS HAVE
COLLAPSED WITH A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF RAYMOND AND A RIDGE
TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN THESE
WEAK CURRENTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEREFORE...LITTLE MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE
CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME THE
MORE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE...FORCING RAYMOND TO MOVE WESTWARD
OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SHOW A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER...KEEPING
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE NO LONGER BRINGS THE HURRICANE INLAND AND IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES THE WARNINGS FOR MEXICO COULD BE ALTERED.

RAYMOND COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM
INTENSITY CHANGES WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARILY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND INTERNAL DYNAMICS. SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS INDICATED BY MUCH OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE
AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 16.0N 102.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 16.3N 102.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 16.5N 102.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 16.4N 102.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 16.0N 104.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 15.7N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 15.5N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH




wow winds over 120 mph!
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760. stoormfury
12:38 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
interesting AOI near 10N 28W. Ihas some spin
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759. HuracandelCaribe
12:38 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 755. washingtonian115:
"The Atlantic Season behaved like an El Niño year, yet all data suggest that water temperatures over much of the tropical Pacific were near average, suggesting a neutral pattern."

This is a excerpt from Accuweather regarding the Atlantic...

BTW highs starting Thursday will be in the upper 40's to lower 50's across the region.Bring it on!.


I guess that is why is a neutral year, it can either be an active or lame year.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
758. Tribucanes
12:37 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Raymond has been fantastic to watch over the last 24 hours. The increase in wind speed by 70mph in one days time is rare. 90L is looking like it's well on it's way to named status later this morning. Good looking little fishy.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
756. Tropicsweatherpr
12:33 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Does anyone know if Raymond is the latest in date (October 21) to become a major in EPAC?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
755. washingtonian115
12:32 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
"The Atlantic Season behaved like an El Niño year, yet all data suggest that water temperatures over much of the tropical Pacific were near average, suggesting a neutral pattern."

This is a excerpt from Accuweather regarding the Atlantic...

BTW highs starting Thursday will be in the upper 40's to lower 50's across the region.Bring it on!.
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754. FunnelVortex
12:31 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Everybody loves raymond!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
753. ARiot
12:28 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 5. ricderr:
The japanese have got to be wondering why they've become the worlds number one target for natural dissasters.....on a birghter note...one of our own..."spetrm" is a weather forecaster for a japanese news station...he's got to be at least a little excited


Their culture is full of disaster stories, like most older societies, but their modern culture is overloaded with that kind of stuff -- Godzilla (perils of technology) to Final Fantasy (a popular video game with themes surrounding disasterous corruption of the natural world).

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
751. washingtonian115
12:16 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 749. FtMyersgal:
I see 90L is up to 60% chance of becoming a TS in the next 48 hours
I would post the "That escalated quickly meme" but I'm not sure if it's allowed anymore..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
750. skycycle
12:15 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Quoting 742. HardTimesHenry:
Who cares about Francisco. Who cares about Raymond. Seriously?


People who like to follow storms do care - not to mention people living on Japan's eastern seacoast, or Mexico's western...

Anyway, I can guarantee you no one cares about your continuous spamming one-line posts, or boldly predicting the season is OVER..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
749. FtMyersgal
12:12 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
I see 90L is up to 60% chance of becoming a TS in the next 48 hours
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather