Super Typhoon Francisco Becomes Earth's 3rd Category 5 Storm of 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2013

Mighty Super Typhoon Francisco has intensified to become Earth's third Category 5 storm of 2013. The other two Cat 5s were Cyclone Phailin, which hit India earlier this month at Category 3 or 4 strength, killing 44 and causing at least $1 billion in damage, and Super Typhoon Usagi, which hit China just east of Hong Kong as a Category 2 storm on September 22, killing 50 and causing at least $3.8 billion in damage. Satellite loops show a spectacular, well-organized storm with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, Francisco is likely to stay at Category 5 strength until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. Francisco is headed northwest towards Japan, and will likely stay at Category 4 or stronger intensity until Tuesday, when the storm will encounter higher wind shear and cooler waters. By the time Franciso makes its closest approach to Japan on Thursday, weakening to Category 2 or lesser strength is likely. In their Saturday morning runs, both the European model and GFS model predicted that Francisco would turn northeastwards on Wednesday, and hit Japan on Thursday. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, though, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 19, 2013. At the time, Francisco was a Category 5 storm with top winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Intriguing Tipping Points TV Series Begins Airing Saturday at 9pm EDT
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Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting 346. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I have a feeling that the SAL is more damaging to a season's total numbers, strength of storms, and ACE. Tha Atlantic Basin is the only basin that has to deal with that. Also, the article on AGW I just posted suggesting more extreme droughts and flooding does carry some weight. Think about the Tropical Systems we have had here recently, most of them like Sandy, Isaac, Debby, and Lee brought serious inland flooding with them. Now that is not all, just this past year parts of Colorado and parts of Toronto saw historic flooding that washed away roads and left people stranded in their vehicles. Then you have an ongoing drought in Texas which has been alleviated somewhat by recent rainfall from the remnants of tropical systems in the Pacific and cold fronts and you have drought conditions in Brazil. So is there a correlation between strong SAL outbreaks and extreme weather events over land that are non-tropically related? Also, is that this years episodes of SAL outbreak stronger than 2006?





everything is connected its one big circle

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 345. NCHurricane2009:

Yes...

And by the way...has their been "Everbody Loves Raymond" jokes yet?
Yes. The low-hanging fruit gets picked early around here... ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I have a feeling that the SAL is more damaging to a season's total numbers, strength of storms, and ACE. The Atlantic Basin is the only basin that has to deal with that. Also, the article on AGW I just posted suggesting more extreme droughts and flooding does carry some weight. Think about the Tropical Systems we have had here recently, most of them like Sandy, Isaac, Debby, and Lee brought serious inland flooding with them. Now that is not all, just this past year parts of Colorado and parts of Toronto saw historic flooding that washed away roads and left people stranded in their vehicles. Then you have an ongoing drought in Texas which has been alleviated somewhat by recent rainfall from the remnants of tropical systems in the Pacific and cold fronts and you have drought conditions in Brazil. So is there a correlation between strong SAL outbreaks and extreme weather events over land that are non-tropically related? Also, is this years episodes of SAL outbreak stronger than 2006?



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 341. Halcyon19:
What is the swirl northeast of the Caribbean islands? ULL?

Yes...

And by the way...has their been "Everbody Loves Raymond" jokes yet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 337. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Global warming will increase intensity of El Nino, scientists say



How the impact of El Nino is felt on sea height across the world

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurs in the Pacific Ocean but plays an important part in the world's climate system.

Researchers have until now been unsure as to how rising temperatures would affect ENSO in the future.

But this new study suggests that droughts and floods driven by ENSO will be more intense.

This study finds that both wet and dry anomalies will be greater in future El Nino years”


The El Nino part of the equation sees a warming of the eastern and tropical Pacific, while its cooler sister, La Nina, makes things chillier in these same regions.

Impacts across the world
Like water in a bathtub, the warmer or cooler waters slosh back and forth across the Pacific Ocean. They are responsible for rainfall patterns across Australia and the equatorial region, but their effects are also felt much further away.

During the Northern Hemisphere winter, for example, you can get more intense rainfall over the southern part of the US in a warmer El Nino phase.

For years, scientists have been concerned about how this sensitive weather system might be changed by rising temperatures from global warming.



This flooding in California in the 1980s was put down to El Nino impacts
Now, in this new paper, published in the journal Nature, researchers give their most "robust" projections yet.

Using the latest generation of climate models, they found a consistent projection for the future of ENSO.

According to the lead author, Dr Scott Power from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, global warming interferes with the way El Nino temperature patterns affect rainfall.

"This interference causes an intensification of El Nino-driven drying in the western Pacific and rainfall increases in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific," he said.

Models in agreement
According to Dr Wenju Cai, a scientist at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), who was not involved with the study, the paper is "significant".

"Up until now, there has been a lack of agreement among computer models as to how ENSO will change in the future," he explained.

"This paper is significant in that there is stronger agreement among different climate models in predicting the future impact.

"This study finds that both wet and dry anomalies will be greater in future El Nino years. This means that ENSO-induced droughts and floods will be more intense in the future."

Link


change one thing
change everything
nothing will be
the same again
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 338. yqt1001:
Snow in October sucks :(
We used to go to Mammoth Mnt in early Nov. for the premiere of Warren Miller's latest ski movie. Some years it was beautiful fall weather other's we could hike up the hill and do some pre-season skiing... Good times!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
What is the swirl northeast of the Caribbean islands? ULL?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On August 2, Colorado State University issued another update for the season. Despite lowering its numbers slightly as a result of anomalous cooling in the eastern subtropical tropical Atlantic.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 328. Hurricane614:


I'm just outside of the rain snow mix! I really just want a flake or two!


Hang around here...
Flakes show up here every day.

: )
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Snow in October sucks :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Global warming will increase intensity of El Nino, scientists say



How the impact of El Nino is felt on sea height across the world

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurs in the Pacific Ocean but plays an important part in the world's climate system.

Researchers have until now been unsure as to how rising temperatures would affect ENSO in the future.

But this new study suggests that droughts and floods driven by ENSO will be more intense.

This study finds that both wet and dry anomalies will be greater in future El Nino years”


The El Nino part of the equation sees a warming of the eastern and tropical Pacific, while its cooler sister, La Nina, makes things chillier in these same regions.

Impacts across the world
Like water in a bathtub, the warmer or cooler waters slosh back and forth across the Pacific Ocean. They are responsible for rainfall patterns across Australia and the equatorial region, but their effects are also felt much further away.

During the Northern Hemisphere winter, for example, you can get more intense rainfall over the southern part of the US in a warmer El Nino phase.

For years, scientists have been concerned about how this sensitive weather system might be changed by rising temperatures from global warming.



This flooding in California in the 1980s was put down to El Nino impacts
Now, in this new paper, published in the journal Nature, researchers give their most "robust" projections yet.

Using the latest generation of climate models, they found a consistent projection for the future of ENSO.

According to the lead author, Dr Scott Power from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, global warming interferes with the way El Nino temperature patterns affect rainfall.

"This interference causes an intensification of El Nino-driven drying in the western Pacific and rainfall increases in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific," he said.

Models in agreement
According to Dr Wenju Cai, a scientist at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), who was not involved with the study, the paper is "significant".

"Up until now, there has been a lack of agreement among computer models as to how ENSO will change in the future," he explained.

"This paper is significant in that there is stronger agreement among different climate models in predicting the future impact.

"This study finds that both wet and dry anomalies will be greater in future El Nino years. This means that ENSO-induced droughts and floods will be more intense in the future."

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
need 7 days of below freezing temps in a row to make ground hard and cold

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 316. LargoFl:
I guess that strong cold front is gonna fizzle..gone are the 40-50 nightime temps from the 7-day.......


I feel sorry for you guys, up here at school in Tallahassee highs are expected to drop into the low 70's with nights in 40's for several days next week starting on Wednesday and lasting through the weekend!

I prefer living at home in Tampa Bay during the summer because of the exciting sea breeze rainy season pattern. But I prefer Tallahassee in the cool season because we are far enough north to experience more potent effects of fronts like more significant cool downs but not far enough north to have uncomfortably cold weather.
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Quoting 319. Doppler22:

I wonder how prepared the MN DOP is for snowstorms in October. I would think they would be fairly prepared. I don't know if my DOP has even thought about snow yet :P
stuff this early needs just a ghost crew just a few things need to be ready much will melt rapidly during and after event ground is still soft and warm
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 314. Doppler22:

Yeah ok, bad example. But many people in the west that need rain and are in a drought don't complain so often.
People out west at least in SoCal where I grew up HATE RAIN! They want to be outside at the beach/lake/park/mountains/desert/Starbuck's patio etc... They want to keep getting all the water they need from snowpack in the distant mountains..
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Quoting 254. sar2401:

Well, this will certainly give the far-off decedents of today's AGW troops a whole new cause in about 7.45 billion years. :-)

I'm always rather amazed that there are scientists doing research and money being spent, either dollars provided by taxpayers or by grants for things like what will the sun will be doing 7.5 billion years from now. Does anyone think those works will have any scientific value 7.499 billions from now, or that those works will even be around? I mean, it's fun work if you can get it, I would imagine, but I really think there are more pressing problems right now that could use some research.


LOL you're not the only one that finds it funny/odd, heck just look how much things have changed in the last 100 years.

I honestly wouldn't even want to know what its like to live on earth 500 years from now, yikes!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 327. georgevandenberghe:


MN gets snow in October, sometimes big dumps. Unless they're incompetent they're prepared.


By the way the DC area southeast suburbs got a HUGE dump Nov 11, 1987, up to my knees on the level and I'm 6'5"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Expecting first garden frost in College Park MD Friday 10/25 or Saturday 10/26. FOr a stream valley location this is probably a little late but it will also probably freeze at my house and that's near the expected time. Apart from some late lima beans (at least I got some limas this year), and the august 1 corn which usually doesn't make it, and peas which when blooming and fruiting (like now) are very tender, I'm in good shape and the freeze will not do undue damage.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 317. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


TXPQ29 KNES 200908
TCSWNP

A. 26W (FRANCISCO)

B. 20/0832Z

C. 18.6N

D. 137.1E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/6.5/W1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...LG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN B AND SURROUNDED BY A NARROW COLD
RING OF W WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 5.5. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 6.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK


Eye beginning to clear out in last frame
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


I'm just outside of the rain snow mix! I really just want a flake or two!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 319. Doppler22:

I wonder how prepared the MN DOP is for snowstorms in October. I would think they would be fairly prepared. I don't know if my DOP has even thought about snow yet :P


MN gets snow in October, sometimes big dumps. Unless they're incompetent they're prepared.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 316. LargoFl:
I guess that strong cold front is gonna fizzle..gone are the 40-50 nightime temps from the 7-day.......


Don't verify a forecast with another forecast.
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Quoting 280. VR46L:
Hmmm one storm , is what south of it not invest worthy ?



Might become td 18 or Sonia depending on how much Shear Raymond produce to it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 316. LargoFl:
I guess that strong cold front is gonna fizzle..gone are the 40-50 nightime temps from the 7-day.......
. Just a bunch of wild guessers , nobody can say what the weather is going to be with any accuracy , for the next hour , or five days , or three or four weeks , no one has that power period !
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28w looks like it will be the next significant typhoon in the Western Pacific. Fortunately, It shouldn't hit any major landmasses.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 316. LargoFl:
I guess that strong cold front is gonna fizzle..gone are the 40-50 nightime temps from the 7-day.......


Yeah, but highs in the upper 70s with sunshine is pretty nice/cool weather for S.W. FL. in Oct.
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 304. Hurricane614:


Raymond is a tiny little guy. Anyone notice the feature south of Raymond?



that could be are next name E PAC storm
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 315. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I wonder how prepared the MN DOP is for snowstorms in October. I would think they would be fairly prepared. I don't know if my DOP has even thought about snow yet :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


TXPZ25 KNES 201230
TCSENP

A. 17E (RAYMOND)

B. 20/1145Z

C. 14.7N

D. 101.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI

H. REMARKS...RAYMOND HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY PAST 24 HOURS. AVERAGE T-NO
OVER PAST 6 HOURS BASED ON HOURLY T-NOS IS 2.9 WHICH MATCHES CLOSELY
WITH RAW CI OF ADT. RECENT TRMM PASS AT 1018Z SHOWED WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CENTER WITH ABUNDANT BANDING CONVECTION. 6 TENTHS BANDING AT 1145Z
GIVES DT=3.0. MET=2.5 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT PAST 24 HRS. PT=3.0. FT
IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

20/1018Z 14.6N 101.5W TMI


...RUMINSKI
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


TXPQ29 KNES 200908
TCSWNP

A. 26W (FRANCISCO)

B. 20/0832Z

C. 18.6N

D. 137.1E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/6.5/W1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...LG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN B AND SURROUNDED BY A NARROW COLD
RING OF W WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 5.5. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 6.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I guess that strong cold front is gonna fizzle..gone are the 40-50 nightime temps from the 7-day.......
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 313. washingtonian115:
Well the difference between Nevada and where ever he is,is that Nevada is a desert.So climo says that they don't get much rain anyway.If you live in Nevada and complain about rain,well good luck.Seattle Washington is right up the coast.

Yeah ok, bad example. But many people in the west that need rain and are in a drought don't complain so often.
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Quoting 310. Doppler22:

I am not trying to be rude or anything, but complaining that you need rain isn't going to do anything. I mean I am not on here everyday but I don't see people in Nevada or California complaining about the lack of rain there. It will come eventually but talking about it constantly will do nothing. We know you want/need rain, but we knew after the first few times you told us on here. I know you need it and I hope you get it, but we don't need to hear about it so often.
Well the difference between Nevada and where ever he is,is that Nevada is a desert.So climo says that they don't get much rain anyway.If you live in Nevada and complain about rain,well good luck.Seattle Washington is right up the coast.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 228. SLU:


Yeah most people have resigned to the fact that 2013 is a complete failure.

Or a complete success, depending on your point of view. A complete forecasting failure for sure, but huge "windfall" profits for the (over)Insurance Industry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
winter approaches

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 276. CaribBoy:
I miss the REAL periods (sometimes over 7 days) of wet weather we usually have in october/november/early december.

I am not trying to be rude or anything, but complaining that you need rain isn't going to do anything. I mean I am not on here everyday but I don't see people in California complaining about the lack of rain there. It will come eventually but talking about it constantly will do nothing. We know you want/need rain, but we knew after the first few times you told us on here. I know you need it and I hope you get it, but we don't need to hear about it so often.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There still is hope for a cold and snowy winter..I'm not counting on it though...

MattRogers
8:47 AM EDT
Yeah my current view is that we should see just a bit more snow than last year, but we don't have any sort of El Nino to deliver a 2009-2010 style winter.


MattRogers
8:23 AM EDT
Yeah, it is earlier than normal for sure, but that is never a good "tell" for the balance of winter. In late October 2011, we had a premature cold outbreak including snows, but the balance of that winter turned out to be very warm. We've had other cold pushes in October (like 2009) that did lead to colder winters. The correlation just isn't there (we wish it were for easier forecasting purposes!)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
we must remember the stronger raymond becomes the more likely he gets pulled into mexico eastward,now a few models have him a strong cat-1 later on..and one or more move him to a cat-2..so we watch him closely this coming week huh..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
306. VR46L
Quoting 304. Hurricane614:


Raymond is a tiny little guy. Anyone notice the feature south of Raymond?


I mentioned it in #280 :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 303. LargoFl:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Raymond is a tiny little guy. Anyone notice the feature south of Raymond?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
guess nhc was right..navy has it still there 6 days from now..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
hmmmm...................
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
experimental model runs 0600...........
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
on the early 600 runs gfs had no idea.........
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather