Super Typhoon Francisco Becomes Earth's 3rd Category 5 Storm of 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2013

Mighty Super Typhoon Francisco has intensified to become Earth's third Category 5 storm of 2013. The other two Cat 5s were Cyclone Phailin, which hit India earlier this month at Category 3 or 4 strength, killing 44 and causing at least $1 billion in damage, and Super Typhoon Usagi, which hit China just east of Hong Kong as a Category 2 storm on September 22, killing 50 and causing at least $3.8 billion in damage. Satellite loops show a spectacular, well-organized storm with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, Francisco is likely to stay at Category 5 strength until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. Francisco is headed northwest towards Japan, and will likely stay at Category 4 or stronger intensity until Tuesday, when the storm will encounter higher wind shear and cooler waters. By the time Franciso makes its closest approach to Japan on Thursday, weakening to Category 2 or lesser strength is likely. In their Saturday morning runs, both the European model and GFS model predicted that Francisco would turn northeastwards on Wednesday, and hit Japan on Thursday. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, though, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 19, 2013. At the time, Francisco was a Category 5 storm with top winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

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Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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on the early 600 runs gfs had no idea.........
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
here's the 1200 tracks ...........
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we have to watch this for a move over mexico then possibly in the gulf as some models are predicting,nhc does say there is much uncertainty in track long term...right now just something to watch..........At 1200 UTC, 20 October 2013, TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND (EP17) was located in the Northeast Pacific basin at 14.7°N and 101.6°W. The current intensity was 45 kt and the center was moving at 7 kt at a bearing of 310 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Recon will go to Raymond on Tuesday afternoon.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....PSBL MISSION FOR 22/1800Z
NEAR 16.5N AND 102.0W.
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Quoting 279. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone! A beautiful 46 degrees this morning with a wind chill of 46 and a dew point of 46. Should be gorgeous in the mid seventies later today.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: beignets smothered in powdered sugar, banana or corn fritters, Pain perdu (French toast) also smothered in powdered sugar, smoked sausage, broiled boudin patties, frittatas with spinach, bacon and cheddar, Eggs Sardou, toast or bagels with creole cream cheese, cheesy grits with shrimp, grillades and grits, crawfish, cheese and mushroom omelets, scrambled eggs with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, big fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Creole coffee. Enjoy!


Now that's what a call a satisfying breakfast!
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Good Morning from the Florida Big Bend/Tallahassee region. Guess I have to mention the weather in this post; yes, the Pacific and Indian Ocean basins have dominated the global tropics this season.

Much like how FSU dominated Clemson last night...........
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Quoting 286. VR46L:




lol
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Well...it does look like the only chance we will see of any action in the tropical Atlantic would be something firing up in the S Carribean...and that would mostly move NE and threaten Cuba or the Bahamas or even Haiti/Dominican Republic. Not even South Florida seems to be under any threat, since the westerlies have now firmly established control.

Though, the long term fantasy view of the GFS does fire up one last storm moving across eastern Cuba and Haiti/DR, and even hints of a dying tropical storm in the EPac curving towards Southern California.

Seems like the WPac and the Indian Ocean basins are hogging up all the action and all the ACE right now.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...RAYMOND STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 101.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES




TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

RAYMOND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER...AND A 1018 UTC TRMM PASS SHOWED SIGNS OF AN INNER
CORE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO
45 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB. AN ENVIRONMENT
OF WARM WATER AND LOW SHEAR APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE WEAKENING...BUT
RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND AN UPWARD TREND
IN THE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
SHIPS AND LGEM AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE ABOVE-MENTIONED TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF RAYMOND IS
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 315/06. AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...RAYMOND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD OR
EVEN A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...
STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK ON DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH A SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOTION LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF RAYMOND...WHICH
SHOULD IMPART A STEADIER WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WHILE THE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS
OVERALL SCENARIO...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRACK OF RAYMOND...ESPECIALLY HOW CLOSE IT WILL GET TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE MORE OF A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IN 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST TRENDS IN THAT
DIRECTION...BUT REMAINS WEST OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DURING THAT TIME.
WHILE THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST STILL KEEPS THE CORE OF RAYMOND
OFFSHORE...IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE A HURRICANE MEANDERING
NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 14.9N 101.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 15.4N 102.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 15.9N 102.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 16.2N 102.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 16.4N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 16.6N 102.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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290. VR46L
Quoting 289. washingtonian115:
Lol.But it's true the Atlantic is just like a desert.No action is happening.It's just dry out there.


It The worst tracking season I have seen ... even the fish last a day . and I doubt it will go out noisy
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Quoting 287. VR46L:
Sorry wash stuck in that Image before I saw yours!
Lol.But it's true the Atlantic is just like a desert.No action is happening.It's just dry out there.
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288. SLU
Quoting 277. CitikatzSouthFL:

And I, for one, am thankful on this Sunday morning. My home is safe for now (until next year or the year after or whenever), my family is safe and my little piece of Florida that I live in is safe.
While I do enjoy watching the tropics in both anticipation and fear, I also pray for all of us that could be hit with "the big one" ...that all the big ones go out to sea. Watching them form, studying their paths, etc. is educational.
So what if the season for Atlantic was a "bust"? It was not a bust on the other side of the world and lives have been lost.
Just think about it before you all continue to whine. Next season you just MIGHT get what you have been wishing for and it just MIGHT be in your backyard! JMHO


I never wished for anything. Predictions were for an average of about 17-9-4 ACE 160+. So far we've seen 11-2-0 ACE 27. So in truth and in fact the season was lacklustre relative to the predictions as I said. If you can pinpoint to me where I made reference to "wishing" for "big ones" to hit then I'll retract that comment.
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287. VR46L
Sorry wash stuck in that Image before I saw yours!
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286. VR46L
Quoting 285. washingtonian115:
Meanwhile in the atlantic..


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Meanwhile in the atlantic..
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284. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
14:30 PM IST October 20 2013
======================================

The low pressure area over central parts of south Bay of Bengal would move northwestwards and may intensify into a well marked low pressure area during next 48 hours
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283. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM FST October 20 2013
====================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 01F (1005 hPa) located at 12.7S 167.2E is reported as moving slowly. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

This is the final summary from RSMC Nadi on this disturbance..

System #2
----------

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02F (1005 hPa) located at 2.8S 173.4E is reported as moving west at 5 knots. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection persistent in the past 24 hours. Organization has slightly improved past 24 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and move it west than southwest without much intensification.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW.
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Quoting 273. Civicane49:
EP, 17, 2013102012, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1016W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30, 1008, 150, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RAYMOND, M,
Stronger.
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281. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32
21:00 PM JST October 20 2013
=====================================

Near Marshall Island

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 10.8N 161.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 13.1N 158.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Island

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (T1327)
21:00 PM JST October 20 2013
=====================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Francisco (925 hPa) located at 18.7N 136.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
240 NM from the center in north quadrant
210 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 20.7N 135.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 23.0N 134.4E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 25.0N 132.5E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Minami Daito Island waters
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280. VR46L
Hmmm one storm , is what south of it not invest worthy ?



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Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone! A beautiful 46 degrees this morning with a wind chill of 46 and a dew point of 46. Should be gorgeous in the mid seventies later today.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: beignets smothered in powdered sugar, banana or corn fritters, Pain perdu (French toast) also smothered in powdered sugar, smoked sausage, broiled boudin patties, frittatas with spinach, bacon and cheddar, Eggs Sardou, toast or bagels with creole cream cheese, cheesy grits with shrimp, grillades and grits, crawfish, cheese and mushroom omelets, scrambled eggs with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, big fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Creole coffee. Enjoy!
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I was waiting for the October 20th date to see if something would pop up and if the MJO would cause some mischief in SW or Western Caribbean but I think 11/2/0 looks like it for 2013.It has been quite a learning experience and I always thought shear was the worst inhibitor of development, but not even a shear prone El Nino year compares to what has happened this year. The stable mid level air has been a hammer and what is most impressive is that it blanketed the entire basin. For sure,it will be a very interesting post season analysis by the experts to go to the bottom of what caused the 2013 North Atlantic season to be like it was.
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Quoting 274. SLU:


We did not even get that "it-only-takes-one" storm this year. That's how lacklustre 2013 has been relative to the predictions.

And I, for one, am thankful on this Sunday morning. My home is safe for now (until next year or the year after or whenever), my family is safe and my little piece of Florida that I live in is safe.
While I do enjoy watching the tropics in both anticipation and fear, I also pray for all of us that could be hit with "the big one" ...that all the big ones go out to sea. Watching them form, studying their paths, etc. is educational.
So what if the season for Atlantic was a "bust"? It was not a bust on the other side of the world and lives have been lost.
Just think about it before you all continue to whine. Next season you just MIGHT get what you have been wishing for and it just MIGHT be in your backyard! JMHO
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I miss the REAL periods (sometimes over 7 days) of wet weather we usually have in october/november/early december.
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A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS
NEAR 59W MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MONDAY-TUESDAY MORNING.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY EVENING THRU THURSDAY UNDER BUILDING MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THIS SCENARIO WILL QUICKLY CHANGE WITH A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN EXPECTED THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES AWAY
AND A RIDGE PATTERN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE DOMINATES THE AREA.


://////// The DRY WEATHER Always wants to come back in a hurry!
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274. SLU
Quoting 252. sar2401:

We are now at October 20, a significant date in terms of tropical storms. In an average year, 85% of all tropical storms have already occurred. With every passing day, that percentage increases until we reach November 10, when 95% of all tropical storms should have occurred. The chances of any hurricane occurring is less than 1 by November 10, and US landfalling hurricane in about .035%. This is not to say we couldn't get a surprise, but it's hard to beat averages, and these go all the way back to 1851. Given the tropical storm season so far, there's certainly no reason for us to expect this to be the year that beats the average. As I said, it's not impossible, but I wouldn't want to bet my pension on it.


We did not even get that "it-only-takes-one" storm this year. That's how lacklustre 2013 has been relative to the predictions.
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EP, 17, 2013102012, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1016W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30, 1008, 150, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RAYMOND, M,
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Continuing Resolution Provides Funding Flexibility for Weather Satellites

By Mike Gruss | Oct. 18, 2013

NOAA requested $954 million for work on the next-generation GOES-R satellites in 2014.

WASHINGTON — The spending bill passed by Congress Oct. 16 provides the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) with temporary flexibility for whatever funding it needs to maintain the launch schedules for two key weather satellite programs.

The continuing resolution, signed into law by President Barack Obama, funds most government programs at the 2013 level, which would be insufficient to keep NOAA’s Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-R programs on schedule. However, lawmakers included a provision in the bill that says NOAA’s budget may be changed “up to the rate for operations necessary” to keep both programs on track until the agency receives its 2014 appropriation.

NOAA requested $954 million for work on the next-generation GOES-R satellites in 2014, a $335 million increase intended to help to meet a launch readiness date of early 2016, according to budget documents.

NOAA also is racing to get the JPSS-1 satellite into orbit by late 2017 or early 2018. NOAA requested $824 million for the program in 2014, a nearly $69 million decrease from 2013.

The current Suomi NPP polar-orbiting satellite, conceived as a testbed but thrust into an operational role, launched in 2011. It is not certain that JPSS-1 will make it to orbit and begin observations before Suomi, which was designed to last five years, fails.

Similarly, NOAA, which maintains GOES satellites overlooking the U.S. East and West coasts, could be faced with single-satellite coverage for up to two years if it does not receive the requested funding increase for the GOES-R program in 2014, agency budget documents warn. 

A study released this year said that if the United States cannot launch new polar-orbiting weather satellites in time to prevent a gap in coverage, NOAA should consider plugging data from Chinese satellites into U.S. weather forecasting models.


Follow Mike on Twitter: @Gruss_SN
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
500 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...RAYMOND GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 101.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 255. Civicane49:
We have Raymond.

EP, 17, 2013102006, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1010W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30, 1008, 150, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RAYMOND, M,
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So guys, I want your opinion on this.

My forecast is high of 48 degrees, with a low of 31, that's for Tues. 60% chance of showers night and day. Is it a possibility of some snow mixing in? All of these sites are saying rain even if they bring it down to like 25 degrees. I do live at a lower elevation, so I'm really clueless. What do you guys think?
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Good Morning..................
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I had hoped some tracks would change.............
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TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP A LITTLE BIT DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
IMPROVED. BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS...
THE 17TH NAMED STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.

AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS SHOULD FAVOR
INTENSIFICATION PRIMARILY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WHEN
RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE. AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
THE OCEAN IS WARM...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A LITTLE BUT
STILL ALLOWING RAYMOND TO REMAIN A 65-KT HURRICANE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODEL PAIR. THERE IS NO SCATTEROMETER
DATA NEARBY TO DETERMINE THE WIND RADII...BUT RAYMOND APPEARS TO BE
A SMALL-SIZE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.

BASED ON IR AND MICROWAVE FIXES...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 315 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. A LARGE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND THIS
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE RAYMON TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...STEERING CURRENTS
ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...AND RAYMOND WILL
PROBABLY MOVE VERY LITTLE. BEYOND 4 DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS REBUILD A STRONG RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AND THE FLOW AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO THE CYCLONE WILL
TURN WESTWARD. LATEST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTWARD
TURN WILL LIKELY OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND
BEFORE THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST. NEVERTHELESS...
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR A
HURRICANE MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND BEYOND.

HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 14.5N 101.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 15.1N 101.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 15.6N 102.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 16.0N 102.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 16.2N 102.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 16.5N 104.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 101.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
260. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32
15:00 PM JST October 20 2013
=====================================

Near Marshall Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 10.0N 161.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 12.2N 159.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Island

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (T1327)
15:00 PM JST October 20 2013
=====================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Francisco (925 hPa) located at 18.3N 137.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
240 NM from the center in north quadrant
210 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 20.3N 136.1E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 22.4N 134.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 24.6N 132.9E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 258. Civicane49:
Francisco is undergoing EWRC:


wow...
6.4 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT ON ON -22.34 -75.19 EYE 10 IR 32.2 18.42 -137.26 SPRL MTSAT2 23.3
2013OCT20 063200 6.4 918.3 +1.7 124.6 6.2 5.7 4.5
lost alot of points on the scale in 30 minutes
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Francisco is undergoing EWRC:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Beautiful satellite image there Dr. Masters.
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Quoting 254. sar2401:

Well, this will certainly give the far-off decedents of today's AGW troops a whole new cause in about 7.45 billion years. :-)

I'm always rather amazed that there are scientists doing research and money being spent, either dollars provided by taxpayers or by grants for things like what will the sun will be doing 7.5 billion years from now. Does anyone think those works will have any scientific value 7.499 billions from now, or that those works will even be around? I mean, it's fun work if you can get it, I would imagine, but I really think there are more pressing problems right now that could use some research.

No one is being funded to study "what will the sun will be doing 7.5 billion years from now". However, there are probably a few (modest) grants out there to study stellar evolution in sun-like stars. How the sun will behave in the future is a natural corollary of that research... if you know in general how sun-like stars evolve and die, then you can write a story about how our Sun will evolve and die in particular.

I don't have a problem with funding research like this, especially since, as I said, it ultimately allows us to understand our Sun's behavior better. That's important for getting better predictions of things like solar storms, which can adversely affect our modern high-tech society and spacecraft in orbit.

That said, I do agree that funding choices aren't always optimal, or even logical. But then that can be said of many government funding priorities, not just in research.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
We have Raymond.

EP, 17, 2013102006, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1010W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30, 1008, 150, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RAYMOND, M,
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, this will certainly give the far-off decedents of today's AGW troops a whole new cause in about 7.45 billion years. :-)

I'm always rather amazed that there are scientists doing research and money being spent, either dollars provided by taxpayers or by grants for things like what will the sun will be doing 7.5 billion years from now. Does anyone think those works will have any scientific value 7.499 billions from now, or that those works will even be around? I mean, it's fun work if you can get it, I would imagine, but I really think there are more pressing problems right now that could use some research.
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am noteding that there is other area of low purser to the S of TD 17E i would if that will be come 97E and the next name storm and if mode runs show show any thing with it
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:


Yeah true. I don't see that happening though. Looks like we've seen out last storm for the year given the pattern.


We are now at October 20, a significant date in terms of tropical storms. In an average year, 85% of all tropical storms have already occurred. With every passing day, that percentage increases until we reach November 10, when 95% of all tropical storms should have occurred. The chances of any hurricane occurring is less than 1 by November 10, and US landfalling hurricane in about .035%. This is not to say we couldn't get a surprise, but it's hard to beat averages, and these go all the way back to 1851. Given the tropical storm season so far, there's certainly no reason for us to expect this to be the year that beats the average. As I said, it's not impossible, but I wouldn't want to bet my pension on it.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
1100 PM PDT SAT OCT 19 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 101.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Some of these microwave passes on Francisco have been really bad. I feel like there have been far fewer quality microwave passes with this storm than usual.

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather