Super Typhoon Francisco Becomes Earth's 3rd Category 5 Storm of 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2013

Mighty Super Typhoon Francisco has intensified to become Earth's third Category 5 storm of 2013. The other two Cat 5s were Cyclone Phailin, which hit India earlier this month at Category 3 or 4 strength, killing 44 and causing at least $1 billion in damage, and Super Typhoon Usagi, which hit China just east of Hong Kong as a Category 2 storm on September 22, killing 50 and causing at least $3.8 billion in damage. Satellite loops show a spectacular, well-organized storm with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, Francisco is likely to stay at Category 5 strength until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. Francisco is headed northwest towards Japan, and will likely stay at Category 4 or stronger intensity until Tuesday, when the storm will encounter higher wind shear and cooler waters. By the time Franciso makes its closest approach to Japan on Thursday, weakening to Category 2 or lesser strength is likely. In their Saturday morning runs, both the European model and GFS model predicted that Francisco would turn northeastwards on Wednesday, and hit Japan on Thursday. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, though, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 19, 2013. At the time, Francisco was a Category 5 storm with top winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

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Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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In the line of FIRE.



"Into The Fire"

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Quoting 171. Tropicsweatherpr:


WPAC began very slow but it really took off in the past few weeks and it has been getting big ACE numbers.

179.088


The ACE numbers for Fransisco are almost equal to the whole Atlantic season. That is truly SAD....
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AHHHHHHHHHHHH that nation wide advertising is shows up 20 times a day evere time they take a break on TWC that the 1st ad that they show
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Have a good night everyone..

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Quoting 192. Neapolitan:
Don't forget to tune into The Weather Channel now to see the first episode of Tipping Points, the climate change series of which Dr. Masters wrote...


considering the fact that most Americans are concerned about GW as a priority, this should break the Neilson ratings for that time slot on a saturday night.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


Typhoon 26W FRANSISCO

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 OCT 2013 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 17:48:27 N Lon : 137:43:04 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 922.1mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : -7.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.5 degrees


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Quoting 187. Pallis:
Arrgh, Pirate land. Actually it is where my tribes cousins were at first contact.


Ahh, no pirates here. Further S Black Beard was known to roam--areas around Southport and Bald Head Island.

Guess I better go back to just 'reading' since this is OT .
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Don't forget to tune into The Weather Channel now to see the first episode of Tipping Points, the climate change series of which Dr. Masters wrote...
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Quoting 190. Tropicsweatherpr:


19.

1 Tropical Storm ALVIN 15-17 MAY 45 -
2 Hurricane-1 BARBARA 28-30 MAY 65 1
3 Hurricane-1 COSME 23-27 JUN 75 1
4 Hurricane-1 DALILA 30 JUN-07 JUL 65 1
5 Hurricane-1 ERICK 04-09 JUL 70 1
6 Tropical Storm FLOSSIE 25-30 JUL 55 -
7 Hurricane-1 GIL 30 JUL-07 AUG 75 1
8 Hurricane-2 HENRIETTE 03-11 AUG 90 2
9 Tropical Storm PEWA 16-18 AUG 55 -
10 Tropical Storm UNALA 19-18 AUG 35 -
11 Tropical Storm IVO 23-25 AUG 40 -
12 Tropical Storm JULIETTE 28-30 AUG 45 -
13 Tropical Storm KIKO 31 AUG-02 SEP 60 -
14 Tropical Storm LORENA 05-08 SEP 40 -
15 Hurricane-1 MANUEL 13-20 SEP 65 1
16 Tropical Storm NARDA 06-10 OCT 55 -
17 Tropical Storm OCTAVE 13-15 OCT 55 -
18 Tropical Storm PRISCILLA 14-17 OCT 40 -



i think you can take out the Central Pacific name storms has they dont cont for the E PAC so i think the E pac has 17 name storms not 19
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Quoting 189. Tazmanian:
would Raymond be are 17 name storm of the E PAC hurricane season or the 19 name storm of the E PAC hurricane season?


19.

1 Tropical Storm ALVIN 15-17 MAY 45 -
2 Hurricane-1 BARBARA 28-30 MAY 65 1
3 Hurricane-1 COSME 23-27 JUN 75 1
4 Hurricane-1 DALILA 30 JUN-07 JUL 65 1
5 Hurricane-1 ERICK 04-09 JUL 70 1
6 Tropical Storm FLOSSIE 25-30 JUL 55 -
7 Hurricane-1 GIL 30 JUL-07 AUG 75 1
8 Hurricane-2 HENRIETTE 03-11 AUG 90 2
9 Tropical Storm PEWA 16-18 AUG 55 -
10 Tropical Storm UNALA 19-18 AUG 35 -
11 Tropical Storm IVO 23-25 AUG 40 -
12 Tropical Storm JULIETTE 28-30 AUG 45 -
13 Tropical Storm KIKO 31 AUG-02 SEP 60 -
14 Tropical Storm LORENA 05-08 SEP 40 -
15 Hurricane-1 MANUEL 13-20 SEP 65 1
16 Tropical Storm NARDA 06-10 OCT 55 -
17 Tropical Storm OCTAVE 13-15 OCT 55 -
18 Tropical Storm PRISCILLA 14-17 OCT 40 -
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would Raymond be are 17 name storm of the E PAC hurricane season or the 19 name storm of the E PAC hurricane season?
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Quoting 185. Tigerosee:


You will have to plan a trip to our coast. We are on a small barrier island, 15 miles S of Wilmington. To our east is the ocean and to the west is the Cape Fear River. I am 'home' here :-)
Arrgh, Pirate land. Actually it is where my tribes cousins were at first contact.
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Quoting 172. Jedkins01:


Go noles!
Thanks, what is it my birthday or something?
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Quoting 182. txjac:


Thanks tigersose. North Carolina looks like a place I would like to vist. Havent seen the ocean from that side of the US yet


You will have to plan a trip to our coast. We are on a small barrier island, 15 miles S of Wilmington. To our east is the ocean and to the west is the Cape Fear River. I am 'home' here :-)
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I certainly remember Kate in 85. When the eye passed over Providenciales here, I was on my boat in the canal adjacent to my lot. As winds came back after the eye passage, I watched (by candlelight) the needle of my barometer move up WITHOUT TAPPING IT. I will never forget that.
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EP, 17, 2013102000, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1003W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SEVENTEEN, M,
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182. txjac
Quoting 177. Tigerosee:



Hasn't been quite that cool yet here on the S coast of NC--(Carolina Beach). The major cold front coming down later in the week, may put us in 40's for a few mornings. I am not a cold weather fan! Glad you are enjoying your first taste of fall.




Thanks tigersose. North Carolina looks like a place I would like to vist. Havent seen the ocean from that side of the US yet
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Quoting 174. DonnieBwkGA:
I think Hurricane Kate is the latest forming Cat 3 and the latest to remain Cat 3. Lenny was a few days earlier.

The wiki article has a table with serious errors in it. It has the 1932 Cuba hurricane as the latest formation for a Cat 2, 3 and 4, on November 3, 4 and 5 1932. Lenny was later in all categories and Kate later for Cat 2 and 3.

Thanks for stating that, I've fixed the bad information. That section has been under construction as of late, and it seems some inaccurate things were added.
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We have TD 17-E. Will it be the first and only major cane in EPAC?
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BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep962013_ep172013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201310200039
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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Quoting 169. txjac:
Supposed to go down to 49F here tonight. Is everyone experiencing fall like temps?



Hasn't been quite that cool yet here on the S coast of NC--(Carolina Beach). The major cold front coming down later in the week, may put us in 40's for a few mornings. I am not a cold weather fan! Glad you are enjoying your first taste of fall.


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173. SLU
Quoting 171. Tropicsweatherpr:


WPAC began very slow but it really took off in the past few weeks and it has been getting big ACE numbers.

179.088


Amazing. These are numbers that the ATL could only dream about even in the best of times.
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Go noles!
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Quoting 170. SLU:
After a shocker of a NHEM hurricane season this year, the WPAC has gone on a rampage since Sept. 15th by producing 10-8-5 since then with "Supercane" Francisco putting the icing on the cake.



WPAC began very slow but it really took off in the past few weeks and it has been getting big ACE numbers.

179.088
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170. SLU
After a shocker of a NHEM hurricane season this year, the WPAC has gone on a rampage since Sept. 15th by producing 10-8-5 since then with "Supercane" Francisco putting the icing on the cake.

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169. txjac
Supposed to go down to 49F here tonight. Is everyone experiencing fall like temps?
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168. txjac
Quoting 167. Tazmanian:



lol


Funny how much you people I "dont know" go through my mind throughout the day
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Quoting 165. txjac:
Oh my, loving this crisp, fall weather that we had today. Have the windows open airing things out in the beautiful 64F temps. The animals are loving it.

Taz, if you are on, I thought of you the other day. My dog peanut was sharing a cage at the vet's with a dog named Taz ...they were great buddies ..made me think of you ..lol



lol
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Quoting 165. txjac:
Oh my, loving this crisp, fall weather that we had today. Have the windows open airing things out in the beautiful 64F temps. The animals are loving it.

Taz, if you are on, I thought of you the other day. My dog peanut was sharing a cage at the vet's with a dog named Taz ...they were great buddies ..made me think of you ..lol
Yep..Our Wolfhounds know its coming before I even give them the latest forecast..kinda neat.
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165. txjac
Oh my, loving this crisp, fall weather that we had today. Have the windows open airing things out in the beautiful 64F temps. The animals are loving it.

Taz, if you are on, I thought of you the other day. My dog peanut was sharing a cage at the vet's with a dog named Taz ...they were great buddies ..made me think of you ..lol
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164. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2013OCT19 231400 2.7 994.6 0.0 39.0 2.7 3.0 3.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -36.24 -39.12 CRVBND N/A N/A 9.24 -161.62

Near Marshall Island

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.3N 162.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 10.6N 159.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Island
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Quoting 111. DonnieBwkGA:
Our 30% chance of rain is coming through!

Congrats. I know how much it means to you and your area. My only 500 complaints is that some farmers took the bait to stop growing peanuts so they could get subsidies for stunted GMO corn, or that's what my buddy from Dothan said. I do know that peanuts are drought resistant and corn is not. I want Georgia peanuts, and I am mad as Heck.
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I was looking at Max's blog and this caught my eye...look at the size Of that ExTrop Low!
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Jacket weather for most onOct .19, 2013 3:19 pm ET

Northeast
- Showers across the majority of the region tonight. Amounts will be light but perhaps a half inch of rainfall across the far north from New York State into northern New England.

- Showers ending early Sunday except in eastern Maine where rainfall will continue through midday.

- A few showers are also possible off Lakes Erie and Ontario on Sunday.

- Most of the region will see increasing sunshine on Sunday with brisk winds gusting to around 30 mph from Boston southward to New York City.

- Lows tonight mainly in the 40s and 50s.

- High Sunday 50s and 60s.
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Quoting 156. Hurricane614:


Wow. That changed from 9 o clock this morning. Watch this litter sucker blow up into a major, I mean it is 2013.


wonder if its remnants can make it back into the atlantic lol
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Quoting 128. LargoFl:
storms coming towards me..hope i get a shower or 2 out of this IF it holds together..
Just ran out to save construction supplies in Sarasota. Yes it is rain, but really warm rain. The low clouds are headed East, and the upper ones are causing trouble and not moving much at all, more like chess pieces shifting with an indecisive hand on them.
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Quoting 156. Hurricane614:


Wow. That changed from 9 o clock this morning. Watch this litter sucker blow up into a major, I mean it is 2013.

Well, if the 2013 curse holds true, 96E should fall apart by morning. :P
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157. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Department
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST October 20 2013
========================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 01F (1004 hPa) located at 10.3S 165.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral visible imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Convection persistent in the past 24 hours. Organization has slightly decreased in past 24 hours. System lies just south of an upper ridge axis in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it westward with slight intensification.

The potential for this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is LOW.

System #2
----------

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02F (1005 hPa) located near 2.7S 174.9E is reported as moving west at 12 knots. Position poor based on multispectral visible imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 31C.

Convection persists in the past 24 hours. Organization has slightly improved in past 24 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it west than southward with slight intensification.

The potential for this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is LOW.
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Wow. That changed from 9 o clock this morning. Watch this litter sucker blow up into a major, I mean it is 2013.
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Latest microwave image confirms Francisco is undergoing an EWRC.
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Quoting 118. LargoFl:
That is what I was wondering. Sometimes they do that. Thanks.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Yes, a lot of us old-timers here in the Boston area remember Gloria in 1985. My spouse and I had a wedding planned for later that October (28 wonderful years... TODAY!) and we were in the process of consolidating our independent living arrangements. Three storms that fall: Danny rained on my parade, then Henri and Gloria rained on my spouse. Fortunately, not much damage in Cambridge -- power out for most of the afternoon, and many big, old trees down, including one in front of our new home that flattened a neighbor's car, but very little damage to buildings.

And with that... I conclude my !00th posting.
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This is a huge trough at 240 if it materializes.

The one at 96 is impressive for this time of year.
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100%

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED THIS EVENING IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
5 DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

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Probably won't happen, but I'd laugh if after a dud of a hurricane season the Atlantic produced a Category 4-5 hurricane in the western Caribbean in November. Well, I probably wouldn't really laugh seeing as that would suck for anyone who gets hit by it, but it would be very ironic.
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Quoting 110. TropicalAnalystwx13:
If convective trends continue, I'd expect classification at 3z.

That is what I was watching as well. Looks like the front is due to interact in some fashion. Sorry, I was at work, and worked some more when I got home, otherwise at least I would have come up with a well disputed opinion. Will the front flatten out and cause more rain for Florida? We already have a few singular rainstorms drifting N.E.on the cusp of S. and C. It will take advantage of the cooling night time air and sink as low as the Gulf will allow, But in the morning it will probably not manifest as much of a line and might back up north a bit by 11:00 AM, or get wide. Sound about right?
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather