Super Typhoon Francisco Becomes Earth's 3rd Category 5 Storm of 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2013

Mighty Super Typhoon Francisco has intensified to become Earth's third Category 5 storm of 2013. The other two Cat 5s were Cyclone Phailin, which hit India earlier this month at Category 3 or 4 strength, killing 44 and causing at least $1 billion in damage, and Super Typhoon Usagi, which hit China just east of Hong Kong as a Category 2 storm on September 22, killing 50 and causing at least $3.8 billion in damage. Satellite loops show a spectacular, well-organized storm with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, Francisco is likely to stay at Category 5 strength until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. Francisco is headed northwest towards Japan, and will likely stay at Category 4 or stronger intensity until Tuesday, when the storm will encounter higher wind shear and cooler waters. By the time Franciso makes its closest approach to Japan on Thursday, weakening to Category 2 or lesser strength is likely. In their Saturday morning runs, both the European model and GFS model predicted that Francisco would turn northeastwards on Wednesday, and hit Japan on Thursday. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, though, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 19, 2013. At the time, Francisco was a Category 5 storm with top winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

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Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Falling'

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...itsa Mojo risin'

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Quoting 93. barbamz:


Interesting. No wonder that it's hard to predict the precise track of Francisco ...


Yep , I am not sure I have the right terminology but both storms are in the one WV Jet (I think better re look at cyclongensis course )
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Last Night TWC was saying conditions will become more favorable for development in the Caribbean in the next 1-2 weeks as the MJO moves east into the ATL. the mentioned in that area there is already features that enhance spin and that all you need is thunderstorms to take advantage of it the water temps in that area are hot and ready to make another named storm easily... if we get a storm in that area in late october or early november it would likely pull northward and head towards the southeast US..

we will have to wait and see what happens..
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TXPQ29 KNES 191508
TCSWNP

A. 26W (FRANCISCO)

B. 19/1432Z

C. 17.3N

D. 138.6E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/WINDSAT/AMSU

H. REMARKS...13C (WMG) EYE EMBEDDED WELL INTO WHITE FOR EYE NO. OF
6.5. PLUS 1.0 EYE ADJ. FOR RING OF CMG FOR TOTAL DT OF 7.0. MET IS STEADY
TREND FOR 7.0. PT IS 7.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

19/0837Z 16.9N 139.4E SSMIS
19/0849Z 16.9N 139.3E WINDSAT
19/1210Z 17.1N 138.9E AMSU


...GALLINA
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Quoting 88. TropicalAnalystwx13:

How does the temperature of an eye change with height?


It decreases. Just much slower than the "standard tropical atmosphere".
;-)
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Quoting 90. VR46L:
Whoa a dance off ???

Loop Embedded





Interesting. No wonder that it's hard to predict the precise track of Francisco ...
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Quoting 88. TropicalAnalystwx13:

How does the temperature of an eye change with height?

Couldn't tell you off the top of my head, but I'd suggest looking here.
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TXPZ25 KNES 191802
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96E)

B. 19/1745Z

C. 12.7N

D. 99.5W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS/WINDSAT

H. REMARKS...OVERALL CIRCULATION PRESENTATION IS SHOWING VERY GOOD
SIGNS OF SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND CONSOLIDATION PER VIS LOOP AND MI SUITE.
HOWEVER BANDING IS LIMITED AND WARM AND DOES NOT REFLECT THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION WITH .25 BANDING FOR DT OF 1.0...WHICH IS REJECTED IN FAVOR
OF MET WHICH IS 1.5 AND PT WHICH IS 1.5 AS WELL. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

19/1244Z 12.4N 99.3W SSMIS
19/1254Z 12.2N 99.3W WINDSAT


...GALLINA
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Whoa a dance off ???

Loop Embedded



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Hi folks. Prof. Petley on his landslide blog has new entries about the catastrophic slides caused in Izu-Oshima by the horrible rainfall of Wipha. How bad, if another one will hit the same areas soon :(

Link to the landslide blog. Quote:

...What is surprising here is that these individual landslides have in effect failed the entire hillside – i.e. it is their proximity that I find surprising. There may be a number of explanations – the remarkable rainfall event (total rainfall is reported to have been 824 mm, with a peak intensity of 122.5 mm in an hour), the presence on the slopes of soils formed from volcanic ash, and the presence of the road (the close proximity of the crowns of the landslides and the road at the top of the slope is an interesting aspect of this).
The death toll from the landslides is now 27 people, with searches continuing for those who are still missing. ...
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Quoting 85. 1900hurricane:

Eye temp can be measured both ways. On infrared imagery, eye temperature is measured by the warmest temperature that satellite can pick up, which is usually the cloud top temps of the low cloud layer at the bottom of the eye, with stronger storms having more eye subsidence and warmer temperatures. In the cases fortunate enough to have recon available, direct data can be gathered with dropsondes, which can record temperature, dewpoint, wind velocity, etc. from the drop point to splashdown. In both cases, a warmer eye is indicative of a stronger system.

How does the temperature of an eye change with height?
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And just to add, the "warm core" is a term relative to the "normal" environmental temperature and is most notable in the the mid-levels of the center. Anomalously warm.
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Quoting 4. FunnelVortex:
(Post from last blog)

My grandmother lives on an island in the intercoastal in Port Orange (in the Daytona area). She's been calling me and telling me that the waters have been anonymously high lately.

What causes the phenomenon of the high waters? I'm curious.


I've been noticing that, as well, as I drive over the Dunlawton Bridge. I used to live on the east side of the river and our dock got completely covered once in a while. Does your grandmother live on Sea Bird Island?
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Quoting 67. Tornado6042008X:

Sorry for the stupid question but, when the temperature in the eye of a tropical cyclone is, for example, 86*F( warm core), does it actually mean that the surface air temperature would be 86*F?

Quoting 78. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Certainly not a stupid question, though it is a question I don't have a clue about lol.

Perhaps someone more knowledgeable can chime in.

Eye temp can be measured both ways. On infrared imagery, eye temperature is measured by the warmest temperature that satellite can pick up, which is usually the cloud top temps of the low cloud layer at the bottom of the eye, with stronger storms having more eye subsidence and warmer temperatures. In the cases fortunate enough to have recon available, direct data can be gathered with dropsondes, which can record temperature, dewpoint, wind velocity, etc. from the drop point to splashdown. In both cases, a warmer eye is indicative of a stronger system.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 80. JNTenne:
Variation of 50-Year Mean Sea Level Trends
8724580 Key West, Florida

Since those are trend data, we have to do some calculating... 73 years since 1940 at an appx. constant rate of 2 mm/yr (from the graph) equals 146 mm or about 5.75 inches of rise. Seems relatively consistent with the "9 inches" quoted earlier.
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Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 11:53 AM PDT on October 19, 2013
Clear
86 °F
Clear
Humidity: 8%
Dew Point: 19 °F

Wind: 4 mph Variable
Pressure: 29.97 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 6 out of 16
Pollen: 4.80 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

I was making a comment yesterday about how low the humidity could go. Here is a good example. 81.0 here.....
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Francisco

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Quoting 4. FunnelVortex:
(Post from last blog)

My grandmother lives on an island in the intercoastal in Port Orange (in the Daytona area). She's been calling me and telling me that the waters have been anonymously high lately.

What causes the phenomenon of the high waters? I'm curious.


astronomically high tides its happening because of the alignment of the sun the earth and moon it has something to do with gravitational pool its flooding miami beach lately
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Variation of 50-Year Mean Sea Level Trends
8724580 Key West, Florida

Link

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Quoting 67. Tornado6042008X:

Sorry for the stupid question but, when the temperature in the eye of a tropical cyclone is, for example, 86*F( warm core), does it actually mean that the surface air temperature would be 86*F?


Certainly not a stupid question, though it is a question I don't have a clue about lol.

Perhaps someone more knowledgeable can chime in.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
NOLA disco

Monday and Tuesday rain should return. Much like last night...measurable
rain will be slow at first. We will need to saturate the ll
considerably and this could take a little while as the forcing
expected over the region wont be rather substantial until Monday night.
We will still be under SW flow aloft and our front will once again
drift back to the north over the County Warning Area. Weak cyclogenesis will occur and
with warm air advection expected right over sela this should track across our area.
Weak isentropic lift will develop but it is not impressive so the
bulk of the support will again be 700 mb warm air advection/Omega and the rrq of the
upper jet along with the forcing of the weak surface low/wave. Moisture
does rebound by 00z Tuesday with precipitable waters back around 1.5" but just like
today the best moisture and support/dynamics will set up over the
southeastern half of the County Warning Area so the highest probability of precipitation (60%) will be across the
southeastern half of the area. Rain will quickly come to and end Tuesday as
isentropic downglide takes along with the l/west trough pushing into
the area. /Cab/

Long term...

after Tuesday we will be quiet for the remainder of the
forecast. The l/west trough north/west flow will become more zonal by the end of
the work week but all of the the moisture will be pushed off well
into the Gulf and high pressure will dominate the region. This will
bring about fall like temperatures with the possibility of lows dropping
into the upper 30s across southwestern MS Thursday morning.
/Cab/
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Quoting 59. whitewabit:


is that a current picture ?? looks much better then my 49 degrees and cloudy skies with 10 -15 mph winds ..


Yes, the cam is refreshed several times per minute.
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Quoting 63. LargoFl:
my local met is thinking low 40's around tampa bay maybe next weekend..we'll see..kinda early for those temps but we'll take it..I think i remember low temps like that make the oranges sweeter.


So could the northern part of Florida have freezing tempertures during that time period? Or will the sea breezes moderate the temperature, keeping it above freezing?
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Quoting 72. LargoFl:
mexico sure is getting the action this year from the pacific storms huh...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
The LBAR is showing 96E getting caught up in that Trof a coming next week, a deep un..........brrr.
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mexico sure is getting the action this year from the pacific storms huh...
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Quoting 69. Patrap:
Cool, The LBAR goes right thru my Living room seems.
something to watch pat..half models go east half go into mexico..
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They have the 2 animated loops running with a bad HTML code seems.
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Cool, The LBAR goes right thru my Living room seems.
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Quoting 65. Patrap:
Seems their server burped.


Thanks was wondering what it was about ,I see the images got fixed
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Quoting 60. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It mixed it out.
Sorry for the stupid question but, when the temperature in the eye of a tropical cyclone is, for example, 86*F( warm core), does it actually mean that the surface air temperature would be 86*F?

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Interesting track here but it takes it over the high mexican mountains..
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Seems their server burped.
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 51. JustFlyingThru:
Going down to 36 here tonight, coldest of the year, if it makes it that low. Will temperatures in the 30's be felt along the gulf coast latter this week? Say around Atlanta and further south.
my local met is thinking low 40's around tampa bay maybe next weekend..we'll see..kinda early for those temps but we'll take it..I think i remember low temps like that make the oranges sweeter.
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I thought the east pacific was suppose to be below average and the Atlantic above average this year.The opposite has happened.It doesn't say El nino in the pacific but the weather sure has been acting like it.
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Quoting 58. Patrap:


Pat What is the significance of June 2009 Sea Surface temperatures in the Far Fast ?
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Quoting 52. Tazmanian:



what happen too the dry air it had last night

It mixed it out.
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Quoting 54. CaribBoy:


is that a current picture ?? looks much better then my 49 degrees and cloudy skies with 10 -15 mph winds ..
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Link
My Winter Weather blog is always open.You can still put your regional forecast for the Winter.In a future blog,we might be talking about our next named winter storm.
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Quoting 50. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sans the 0232z classification last night that gave a T6.0/7.0, Super Typhoon Francisco has maintained a consecutive T.70/140 knots from SAB since 0832z yesterday morning. That's very impressive.

What's also impressive is the fact that this has yet to undergo one eyewall replacement cycle. There aren't any signs of one starting anytime soon either.


Have been watching that too .. the eye wall has remained the same size for what seems like an extended period .. would have thought it would have had 1 EWRC already and working on the 2nd ..
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Quoting 49. Tazmanian:



its likey all ready a TD right now sould be a TD at any time now


Taz .. I don't think it has yet met the criteria needed to be named ..
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Quoting 50. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sans the 0232z classification last night that gave a T6.0/7.0, Super Typhoon Francisco has maintained a consecutive T.70/140 knots from SAB since 0832z yesterday morning. That's very impressive.

What's also impressive is the fact that this has yet to undergo one eyewall replacement cycle. There aren't any signs of one starting anytime soon either.



what happen too the dry air it had last night
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Going down to 36 here tonight, coldest of the year, if it makes it that low. Will temperatures in the 30's be felt along the gulf coast latter this week? Say around Atlanta and further south.
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Sans the 0232z classification last night that gave a T6.0/7.0, Super Typhoon Francisco has maintained a consecutive T.70/140 knots from SAB since 0832z yesterday morning. That's very impressive.

What's also impressive is the fact that this has yet to undergo one eyewall replacement cycle. There aren't any signs of one starting anytime soon either.
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Quoting 45. whitewabit:
good inflow to the center of 96E .. the next named storm ??





its likey all ready a TD right now sould be a TD at any time now
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather