About Jeff Masters
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
Super Typhoon Francisco Becomes Earth's 3rd Category 5 Storm of 2013
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2013
Mighty Super Typhoon Francisco has intensified to become Earth's third Category 5 storm of 2013. The other two Cat 5s were Cyclone Phailin, which hit India earlier this month at Category 3 or 4 strength, killing 44 and causing at least $1 billion in damage, and Super Typhoon Usagi, which hit China just east of Hong Kong as a Category 2 storm on September 22, killing 50 and causing at least $3.8 billion in damage. Satellite loops show a spectacular, well-organized storm with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, Francisco is likely to stay at Category 5 strength until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. Francisco is headed northwest towards Japan, and will likely stay at Category 4 or stronger intensity until Tuesday, when the storm will encounter higher wind shear and cooler waters. By the time Franciso makes its closest approach to Japan on Thursday, weakening to Category 2 or lesser strength is likely. In their Saturday morning runs, both the European model and GFS model predicted that Francisco would turn northeastwards on Wednesday, and hit Japan on Thursday. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, though, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict. 
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 19, 2013. At the time, Francisco was a Category 5 storm with top winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.
The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.
Intriguing Tipping Points TV Series Begins Airing Saturday at 9pm EDT
How does one tell the most important story of our time--the emergence of our great Climate Disruption--without boring one's audience to tears, but at the same time, not resorting to over-hyped spinning of the science? “Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that begins airing at 9 pm EDT Saturday, October 19 on The Weather Channel, aims to do just that. "Tipping Points" follows a group of preeminent scientists as they venture off the grid to explore the perilous tipping points making our weather systems more extreme and unpredictable. The first episode at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT this Saturday will be "Amazon Rainforest Risks". "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom will join Peter Cox, Professor of Climate System Dynamics at the University of Exeter, on an expedition across the vast Amazon Rainforest to explore the mega droughts and tree deaths occurring that threaten the forest's survival this century.
Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
Reader Comments
Category 6™
49. Tazmanian
its likey all ready a TD right now sould be a TD at any time now
48. GTstormChaserCaleb
And that is a beautiful storm, unfortunately with beauty comes a price.
47. Neapolitan
46. Patrap
45. whitewabit
44. Patrap
Typhoon 26W FRANSISCO
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 OCT 2013 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 17:28:56 N Lon : 138:16:21 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 920.7mb/134.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.6 6.6
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km
Center Temp : +10.7C Cloud Region Temp : -77.2C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.9 degrees
43. Tropicsweatherpr
EP, 96, 2013101918, , BEST, 0, 131N, 999W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
42. Patrap
41. TropicalAnalystwx13
40. whitewabit
That's a possibility .. though Francisco is expected to weaken some before hitting .. the further north the cooler the SST's .. though it will still be a storm to reckon with ..
39. GTstormChaserCaleb
38. Jedkins01
Can you imagine if Wilma had made landfall at that intensity into Tampa Bay or Miami? I can't even imagine the destruction. I think it would look like nuclear war.
37. Tornado6042008X
My apologies. I should really look more closely at what is typed. When I saw the word "Atlantic" I was thinking "Mid-Atlantic".
Anyway yeap. I couldn't agree more about the weather over the Atlantic right now. Good pic to use btw.
36. sar2401
The analogy becomes even shakier when we consider the body does have early warning signs. Chest pain, shortness of breath, pain in general, all of these warn us, if we're willing to listen, that something is going wrong. The climate has no such early warning systems, and what is does have occurs over long periods of time and generally needs a considerable amount of scientific study to recognize. If you're having chest pain, you can get a hospital and reduce the effects of a heart attack. No one is going to be on an island that's three feet above water, absent a storm, and find their bed floating around their house.
35. sar2401
I pulled out my tide table reference book from 1974...yes, they were all on paper then. :-) I was actively sailing the area from the Bahamas to the Northern Antilles then. The Keys were particularly tricky because there are so many reefs that a few inches of water makes the difference between grounding and safe passage. The tide tables had corrections for the phase of the moon (the moon was full yesterday) and prevailing wind, both of which affect the tides. I just looked up the tides at lower Sugarloaf Key and they matched the predicted tides in my tide book within one inch, which was pretty much within the normal range of error. So, from 38 years ago, it appears to me that the tides have undergone almost no change, and the moon, tides, and prevailing winds are still the biggest issues.
34. EstherD
Analogies between the human body and climate change are on shaky ground at best. The human body has multiple systems in place that work proactively to compensate for deleterious changes, e.g., the immune system to compensate for poor oral hygiene. There are also many active feedback systems that regulate physiological processes. The umbrella term for this process is homeostasis. Problems become apparent only when these systems are compromised, or overwhelmed, by disease processes or the wear and tear due to aging.
Last time I checked, there are no such systems working in the atmosphere to, e.g., to stabilize the Greenland ice sheet, sensing when it is beginning to deteriorate, and actively working to compensate for said deterioration.
33. PlazaRed
Thanks for this interesting update on the Pacific's problem storm.
If the trajectory you posted continues to play out, the whole centre of the storm could pass up the middle of Japan causing virtually untold damage as well as a lot more problems for the nuclear mess there.
32. weatherbro
Because his flatulence meter was waaay over the roof!!!
31. PedleyCA
30. TropicalAnalystwx13
The name's only been used two times, in 1983 and in 1989. Coincidentally, both storms became 145 mph Category 4 hurricanes. Hopefully 2013 doesn't disappoint.
29. Tropicsweatherpr
Looks like a TD already. Raymond may be a strong one. (Maybe the first major in EPAC?)
28. TropicalAnalystwx13
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR ON SUNDAY WHILE THIS
LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...IS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
27. whitewabit
26. sar2401
Thankfully, most typhoons weaken before striking the central and northern islands of Japan. A combination of continental dry air getting entrained in the storm, the mountainous terrain of most of islands, and the relatively shallow Inland Sea combine to weaken storms. Hopefully, the same will happen with Francisco.
25. VR46L
24. daddyjames
Yes, I know.
The impact of the higher tides are influenced by the sea level rise. But, the occurence in and of itself is not unusual.
:P
23. washingtonian115
One word?.Win!!!!
22. daddyjames
21. Neapolitan
Coastal flooding getting worse with sea-level rise
A conspiracy of the moon, high tides and the steady rise of the oceans left up to a foot of sea water in some sections of Fort Lauderdale and Miami Beach Thursday.
These atmospheric factors join forces three to five times every year to heap ocean water at the shoreline, leaving streets and low-lying coastal areas throughout South Florida flooded.
Because the Atlantic Ocean has risen about 9 inches in the past 80 to 100 years, the problem continues to deepen, said Jennifer Jurado, director of Broward County's Natural Resources Planning and Management Division.
"For many community members, who live in low-lying areas, the flooding has significantly increased in the last several years, compared to what they were experiencing two decades ago," she said.
(Also see this.)
20. hydrus
19. daddyjames
That effect would be more prominent due to the effects of the moon. Winds off of Florida are not necessarily unusual for this time of year (there are no watches or warnings for any wind events). This is not uncommon for this time of year in Florida.
18. whitewabit
Think that is what I would check next .. possible ..
Lake Michigan is a prime example of that ..
17. CaneFreeCR
16. CaicosRetiredSailor
--------------------------
a·nom·a·lous (-nm-ls)
adj.
1. Deviating from the normal or common order, form, or rule.
2. Equivocal, as in classification or nature.
[From Late Latin anmalos, from Greek, uneven : probably from an-, not; see a-1 + homalos, even (from homos, same; see sem-1 in Indo-European roots).]
a·noma·lous·ly adv.
a·noma·lous·ness n.
15. FunnelVortex
She said the waters are high during low tide, so I think it is a combo of the two.
14. daddyjames
That may be contributing, but it has to do with the moon and timing. See my response to whitewabit.
13. washingtonian115
12. TropicalAnalystwx13
Typhoon Francisco continues to strengthen. Cloudtops cooler than -80C now wrap completely around the warm eye. 175 mph with a pressure somewhere between 875-895 millibars for a T# of T7.5 (not official).
(Edited to thank)
11. daddyjames
Yes, it is
Blame The Moon For South Florida’s Tidal Flooding
10. FunnelVortex
She did. She said the water is higher than normal during low tide as well.
I think it could be multiple days of onshore winds pushing water into the intercoastal if that is possible.
9. daddyjames
@bappit (in response to your prevoius post).
Talking about tipping points, can be a pretty "dry" subject for those not scientifically inclined. Hence Dr. M's comment about "boring" people. Educating people that - if steps are not taken soon - there will come a time that nothing can be done to mitigate the impacts is not a bad thing.
This is evident in a number of ways we, as a society, choose to address things. And is reflective in a number of "problems" that currently needs to be addressed in the US.
There are a number of examples that one can pull from.
Will be happy to continue this discussion at a later time.
Have a fantastic day everyone. I'm out for the day.
8. FunnelVortex
I think next season will be more impressive than this one, but 2015 is when we will see the bad boys return.
7. whitewabit
has she checked tide records to see if in fact it is higher ?? then I would check to see what the prevailing ground winds were and what direction ..
6. lobdelse81
5. ricderr
4. FunnelVortex
My grandmother lives on an island in the intercoastal in Port Orange (in the Daytona area). She's been calling me and telling me that the waters have been anonymously high lately.
What causes the phenomenon of the high waters? I'm curious.
3. whitewabit
2. wxchaser97
1. Ameister12