Super Typhoon Francisco Becomes Earth's 3rd Category 5 Storm of 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2013

Mighty Super Typhoon Francisco has intensified to become Earth's third Category 5 storm of 2013. The other two Cat 5s were Cyclone Phailin, which hit India earlier this month at Category 3 or 4 strength, killing 44 and causing at least $1 billion in damage, and Super Typhoon Usagi, which hit China just east of Hong Kong as a Category 2 storm on September 22, killing 50 and causing at least $3.8 billion in damage. Satellite loops show a spectacular, well-organized storm with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, Francisco is likely to stay at Category 5 strength until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. Francisco is headed northwest towards Japan, and will likely stay at Category 4 or stronger intensity until Tuesday, when the storm will encounter higher wind shear and cooler waters. By the time Franciso makes its closest approach to Japan on Thursday, weakening to Category 2 or lesser strength is likely. In their Saturday morning runs, both the European model and GFS model predicted that Francisco would turn northeastwards on Wednesday, and hit Japan on Thursday. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, though, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 19, 2013. At the time, Francisco was a Category 5 storm with top winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

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Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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I see 90L is up to 60% chance of becoming a TS in the next 48 hours
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Quoting 745. HardTimesHenry:

No ones cares about Raymond.
I personally don't.But I guess it's something to talk about.Maybe 2014 will be the season of the Atlantic's revenge.That's if a El nino doesn't form.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I'm holing out for 4 more storms, but know it doesn't look too likely.

Morning/Evening.
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
500 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

...MAJOR HURRICANE RAYMOND DRIFTING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 102.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES...AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
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90L up to 60%.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE
LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THEN TURNS EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD.
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738. VR46L
Quoting 736. GrandCaymanMed:


Thank you. Laughs are very healthy :D
I will confess I went out on a huge limb though. But that's the challenge in forecasting.



Agree 100%. The NW Caribbean is a hotbed for late season storms. It ain't over till it's over...


Its Just this season has been so uneventful , I find it hard to muster any enthusiasm for the next 6 weeks!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 637. wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys I do have to say in terms of major hurricanes it is very poor
Atlantic
Total depressions 12
Total storms 11
Hurricanes 2
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3 )
E Pac
Total depressions 20
Total storms 19
Hurricanes 8
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3 ) 1


We had to edit that.
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Quoting 733. VR46L:


Plussed because it gave me a ROFL moment !

Morning Folks !


Thank you. Laughs are very healthy :D
I will confess I went out on a huge limb though. But that's the challenge in forecasting.

Quoting 735. Stormwatch247:


90L might become our next Alantic fish storm!

It would not be surprising for a T.S. or strong hurricane to form in the NW Carribbean. Although the 2013 season has been slower than recent years, that area has been a hot spot for October-November hurricanes, including Paloma (2008), Ida (2009), Paula and Richard (2010), Rina (2011), and Superstorm Sandy (2012).

As Hurricane Ida (Nov 2009) approached the central US Gulf Coast, it was still a hurricane when it was located just offshore of the southeast tip of Louisiana. Gale force winds occurred along the coast from Louisiana to Florida, and a hurricane force wind gust of 75MPH was recorded at the mouth of the Mississippi River. Hurricane Ida did occur during a slower El Nino year.

VERY interesting forecast, and believable! Late season hurricanes are SO interesting to observe and track!


Agree 100%. The NW Caribbean is a hotbed for late season storms. It ain't over till it's over...
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Quoting 722. GrandCaymanMed:
Link

Scattered thunderstorms over the Western Caribbean. Nothing organized right now, but I expect a tropical storm to develop in the Western Caribbean in the next 10-12 days. The 18Z GFS from yesterday showed a strong low over the NW Caribbean with winds of 35 knots around Halloween.

The 0z GFS for this morning shows a tropical storm in the NW Caribbean just after Halloween by November 1st. The remnants of the strong cold front expected to move into the Gulf in conjunction with an area of moisture coming in from the SW (a tropical wave that is currently over the central Atlantic) seem to be the triggers on the GFS model for this potential system. Remember in 2009, as inactive as that year was, we still had Hurricane Ida in the Caribbean in November. A niche of low shear should be present once the tropical wave reaches the West Caribbean.

Like with most Caribbean storms, I expect the system to get caught in weak steering between a weak westerly propagating tropical wave producing westward steering and a cold front in the GOM producing easterly steering. This collapse of steering should favor ample time for intensification.

Chance of Tropical Storm: 90%
Chance of Hurricane: 80%
Chance of Major Hurricane: 60%

***NOT OFFICIAL***


90L might become our next Alantic fish storm!

It would not be surprising for a T.S. or strong hurricane to form in the NW Carribbean. Although the 2013 season has been slower than recent years, that area has been a hot spot for October-November hurricanes, including Paloma (2008), Ida (2009), Paula and Richard (2010), Rina (2011), and Superstorm Sandy (2012).

As Hurricane Ida (Nov 2009) approached the central US Gulf Coast, it was still a hurricane when it was located just offshore of the southeast tip of Louisiana. Gale force winds occurred along the coast from Louisiana to Florida, and a hurricane force wind gust of 75MPH was recorded at the mouth of the Mississippi River. Hurricane Ida did occur during a slower El Nino year.

VERY interesting forecast, and believable! Late season hurricanes are SO interesting to observe and track!
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734. beell
Raymond may have peaked. Slow to stationary forward speed leading to upwelling and perhaps a bit of dry air beginning to wrap in from the west. Taking on a bit of a lop-sided appearance this morning. Shear may not be an issue yet but it is not too far away to the NW.


But still, 65 knots in 24 hrs. Scary.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
733. VR46L
Quoting 722. GrandCaymanMed:
Link

Scattered thunderstorms over the Western Caribbean. Nothing organized right now, but I expect a tropical storm to develop in the Western Caribbean in the next 10-12 days. The 18Z GFS from yesterday showed a strong low over the NW Caribbean with winds of 35 knots around Halloween.

The 0z GFS for this morning shows a tropical storm in the NW Caribbean just after Halloween by November 1st. The remnants of the strong cold front expected to move into the Gulf in conjunction with an area of moisture coming in from the SW (a tropical wave that is currently over the central Atlantic) seem to be the triggers on the GFS model for this potential system. Remember in 2009, as inactive as that year was, we still had Hurricane Ida in the Caribbean in November. A niche of low shear should be present once the tropical wave reaches the West Caribbean.

Like with most Caribbean storms, I expect the system to get caught in weak steering between a weak westerly propagating tropical wave producing westward steering and a cold front in the GOM producing easterly steering. This collapse of steering should favor ample time for intensification.

Chance of Tropical Storm: 90%
Chance of Hurricane: 80%
Chance of Major Hurricane: 60%

***NOT OFFICIAL***


Plussed because it gave me a laugh !
This season nothing seems to be ever going to occur

Morning Folks !
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
732. SLU
Probably a TS by now.

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731. SLU
Quoting 701. KoritheMan:
Yawn...


1. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
HAS INCREASED AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION IS
DEVELOPING. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED
TROPICAL CYCLONE
LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...AND THEN TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.


This should easily add a whooping 0.5 units to the ACE. Something is better than nothing I guess ...
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Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's pretty much 53 across the board again. We seem to like to keep our temperature, wind chill/heat index, dew point and humidity all the same.

Raymond appeared out of no where to me, guess I should have been checking in yesterday, but it was a busy day. Last I saw it was just an invest...


Breakfast's on the sideboard: steak, eggs and hash browns, bacon and egg grilled cheese, Raspberry oatmeal breakfast cake, broccoli & cheddar omelet, Cheesecake Burritos with strawberry topping, Boston Cream Pie Pancakes, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
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Good morning everybody!

As expected, Raymond continued to rapidly intensify and became a major hurricane over night.


Atlantic is up to its old antics and 90L could end up becoming another weak, forgettable tropical storm.
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Wow! What happened to Raymond last night? I left it being a 75 mph hurricane and now it's a 120 mph hurricane! Talk about rapid intensification!


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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
currently not expected to head eastward into mexico..
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Atl side now has an Invest..for the fish though....
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Good Morning folks!..............
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Link

Scattered thunderstorms over the Western Caribbean. Nothing organized right now, but I expect a tropical storm to develop in the Western Caribbean in the next 10-12 days. The 18Z GFS from yesterday showed a strong low over the NW Caribbean with winds of 35 knots around Halloween.

The 0z GFS for this morning shows a tropical storm in the NW Caribbean just after Halloween by November 1st. The remnants of the strong cold front expected to move into the Gulf in conjunction with an area of moisture coming in from the SW (a tropical wave that is currently over the central Atlantic) seem to be the triggers on the GFS model for this potential system. Remember in 2009, as inactive as that year was, we still had Hurricane Ida in the Caribbean in November. A niche of low shear should be present once the tropical wave reaches the West Caribbean.

Like with most Caribbean storms, I expect the system to get caught in weak steering between a weak westerly propagating tropical wave producing westward steering and a cold front in the GOM producing easterly steering. This collapse of steering should favor ample time for intensification.

Chance of Tropical Storm: 90%
Chance of Hurricane: 80%
Chance of Major Hurricane: 60%

***NOT OFFICIAL***
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

RAYMOND CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A CIRCULAR AND DISTINCT EYE WITH A SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE
PATTERN SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT
105 KT...FOLLOWING THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT. THIS MAKES RAYMOND A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...THE FIRST
MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC 2013 SEASON. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THIS CYCLONE HAS EXHIBITED AN IMPRESSIVE
PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING...AS IT WAS ONLY A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

THE HURRICANE HAS COME TO A HALT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ABOUT 100
N MI SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE STEERING CURRENTS HAVE
COLLAPSED WITH A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF RAYMOND AND A RIDGE
TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN THESE
WEAK CURRENTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEREFORE...LITTLE MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE
CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME THE
MORE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE...FORCING RAYMOND TO MOVE WESTWARD
OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SHOW A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER...KEEPING
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE NO LONGER BRINGS THE HURRICANE INLAND AND IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES THE WARNINGS FOR MEXICO COULD BE ALTERED.

RAYMOND COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM
INTENSITY CHANGES WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARILY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND INTERNAL DYNAMICS. SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS INDICATED BY MUCH OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE
AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 16.0N 102.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 16.3N 102.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 16.5N 102.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 16.4N 102.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 16.0N 104.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 15.7N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 15.5N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

...RAYMOND STALLS SOUTH OF MEXICO WITH 120 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 102.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
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EPAC finally has a major hurricane.

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90L:

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Quoting 689. TropicalAnalystwx13:
From my local NWS:

"PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ENTIRELY UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT INLAND
WIND...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD NOR PROBLEMATIC FOR MOST EARLY MORNING
COMMUTES. THE PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
VIEWING OF THE ORIONID METEORS LATE TONIGHT BUT BRING A JACKET AND
PREFERABLY A LAWN-CHAIR TO PREVENT A SORE-NECK."

Stayed up much too late tonight in hopes of catching at least one Orionid. Moon too bright for the dim ones. Thought I might get lucky and see a fireball that was bright enough to cut through the glare. No joy. Then the partly cloudy started rolling in from the west. Stayed until it covered the radiant, then gave it up as a bad job. Maybe next year...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Lekima.




Eye feature now visible. JTWC still has it at 45 knots while the JMA bumped it up to a STS (Severe Tropical Storm) with 10-min 50 knot winds with a pressure of 990 mbar. Expect a typhoon tomorrow.

Francisco.


New eye is looking more pronounced. Although both the JTWC and JMA are not expecting it to re-intensify.

Doesn't look too good for the Tokyo Metro area.
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714. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST October 21 2013
=====================================

A well marked low pressure area has formed over southwest Bay of Bengal off northern Tamil Nadu - southern Andhra Pradesh coasts.
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713. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LEKIMA (T1328)
15:00 PM JST October 21 2013
=====================================

Near Marshall Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Lekima (990 hPa) located at 12.2N 160.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 15.0N 157.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Marshall Island
48 HRS: 18.0N 151.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) south southwest of Minami torishima
72 HRS: 20.1N 147.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Ogasawara waters

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (T1327)
15:00 PM JST October 21 2013
=====================================

Southeast of Minami Daito Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Francisco (940 hPa) located at 20.3N 135.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
240 NM from the center in north quadrant
210 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 22.5N 134.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) southeast of Minami Daito Island
48 HRS: 24.0N 131.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) south of Minami Daito Island
72 HRS: 25.5N 129.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Minami Daito Island waters
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AL, 90, 2013102106, , BEST, 0, 270N, 560W, 25, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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21/0545 UTC 16.0N 102.2W T5.5/5.5 RAYMOND
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37 in North Wilkesboro, NC. Going to be closer to 27 later this week with mountain flakes to the west.

#brrrr
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Raymond wants to continue the curse of cat 4.The past 2 Raymonds had become cat 4 I believe I mention this before in the hurricane wikia or here in wunderground.I am also hoping we at least get Lorenzo of 90L.
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Yeah I just saw that on our local news here in Orlando. You stay safe Aussie

Yeah I'm safe, just trying to cope with the smoke. I haven't heard from TropicalStormIsaac that comes on here. I know she lives in the Blue Mountains where these fires are located.
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Quoting 704. Civicane49:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
1100 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...RAYMOND HESITATES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 102.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

This has escalated uncomfortably quickly today.

65 knots in 24 hours.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I'm personally liking the general idea of what the ECMWF is doing with Raymond.



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
1100 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...RAYMOND HESITATES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 102.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
702. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2013OCT21 044500 5.0 967.6 90.0 5.0 5.2 6.1 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -28.66 -72.73 EYE -99 IR 55.8 16.02 102.08

RSMC Miami ADT on Raymond

Initial Dvorak: T5.0

Raw T6.0
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Yawn...


1. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
HAS INCREASED AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION IS
DEVELOPING. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED
TROPICAL CYCLONE
LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...AND THEN TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
90L:

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
HAS INCREASED AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION IS
DEVELOPING. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED
TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...AND THEN TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.
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Quoting 694. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Francisco is crossing the blue:


That might do it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather