Super Typhoon Francisco Becomes Earth's 3rd Category 5 Storm of 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2013

Mighty Super Typhoon Francisco has intensified to become Earth's third Category 5 storm of 2013. The other two Cat 5s were Cyclone Phailin, which hit India earlier this month at Category 3 or 4 strength, killing 44 and causing at least $1 billion in damage, and Super Typhoon Usagi, which hit China just east of Hong Kong as a Category 2 storm on September 22, killing 50 and causing at least $3.8 billion in damage. Satellite loops show a spectacular, well-organized storm with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, Francisco is likely to stay at Category 5 strength until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. Francisco is headed northwest towards Japan, and will likely stay at Category 4 or stronger intensity until Tuesday, when the storm will encounter higher wind shear and cooler waters. By the time Franciso makes its closest approach to Japan on Thursday, weakening to Category 2 or lesser strength is likely. In their Saturday morning runs, both the European model and GFS model predicted that Francisco would turn northeastwards on Wednesday, and hit Japan on Thursday. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, though, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 19, 2013. At the time, Francisco was a Category 5 storm with top winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

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Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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649. SLU
Correct me if I'm wrong, but this may be the first time that the NHC has issued a forecast with a storm maxing out at 125mph all year in both basins.

24H 22/0000Z 16.6N 101.9W 110 KT 125 MPH

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I'm off to bed. Good night everybody!

I think we'll see a major hurricane in the EPac in the morning.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
647. SLU
Could Raymond be the first MH in the EPAC?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

RAYMOND HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING AT AN ASTOUNDING RATE SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
PICTURES...AND WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO THE SMALL EYE HAS CLEARED
AND WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY. ALTHOUGH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT
0000 UTC WERE 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AN EARLIER CIMSS AMSU
INTENSITY INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 74 KT. GIVEN THE MUCH
IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE EARLY THIS EVENING...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT...WHICH MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE.
THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
NOW CALLS FOR RAYMOND TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 12
HOURS...AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE
FOREAST PERIOD...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND IS LIKELY TO INITIATE
WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/5 KT. RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS WHILE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
OUT...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AND RAYMOND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY. THE PRIMARY
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND HOW
CLOSE RAYMOND WILL GET TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WHETHER LANDFALL WILL OCCUR. THE GFDL
AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE RAYMOND TO THE COAST WITHIN 48
HOURS....WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
NORTHWARD MOTION. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE IN BETWEEN AND
SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT ONLY A
SMALL NORTHWARD DEVIATION OF RAYMOND FROM THE NHC FOREAST WOULD
BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE COAST. THE UPDATED
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND
GFS MODELS.

GIVEN THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...RECENT STRENGTHENING...AND POSSIBLE
EXPANSION OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM TECPAN DE
GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 15.9N 102.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 16.3N 102.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 16.6N 101.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 16.8N 101.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 17.0N 101.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 16.7N 103.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 16.0N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 638. EstherD:
Yeah, OK, ya got me. I shot from the hip, instead of spending a half-hour writing a full and correct explanation that no-one would read. However, considering the statement to which I responded, I stand by my original comment, slightly modified: to a first approximation, and for all practical intents and purposes, neither cellphones nor Internet are in any major way dependent on the ionosphere.
You must have good service, because all I have to do is step next to a metal building, get near the beach,go inside, have a minor sunspot,wind over 10 knots, an Poof! Service not available. My cell phone is the canary model.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...RAYMOND CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 102.0W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
We have a Category 2.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 625. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Raymond is now nearing Category 2 intensity.

EP, 17, 2013102100, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1019W, 80, 978, HU
I saw the eye close and then open at the top,and then start to close, but then I got assailed by Ionosphere Deniers. What are they teaching these kids nowadays? Are we still allowed to believe in the Van Allen Belt?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2013OCT21 021500 3.9 987.1 63.0 3.9 4.3 6.0 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -28.66 -72.42 EYE -99 IR N/A 15.81 101.91 SPRL GOES13 36.0
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 633. Civicane49:

There's the dreaded pinhole.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Yeah, OK, ya got me. I shot from the hip, instead of spending a half-hour writing a full and correct explanation that no-one would read. However, considering the statement to which I responded, I stand by my original comment, slightly modified: to a first approximation, and for all practical intents and purposes, neither cellphones nor Internet are in any major way dependent on the ionosphere.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hey guys I do have to say in terms of major hurricanes it is very poor
Atlantic
Total depressions 12
Total storms 11
Hurricanes 2
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3 ) 0

E Pac
Total depressions 20
Total storms 19
Hurricanes 8
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3 ) 0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 631. SLU:


Well at least he was right on the bust comment for sure. No subjectivity there.

That wasn't his message. It was a really bogus post.
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Quoting 626. sar2401:

Assuming that somehow you could create an extremely dense ionospheric atmosphere, it would affect anything that uses radio frequencies, from cell phones, which are only line of sight from you to a tower, and then depends on microwave or satellite, and your internet connection nearly all of which depend on satellite for at least one hop. The whole thing sounds nuts anyway, but any country or entity that could control atmospheric density could cause us lots of problems with almost all our electronics.
Now you are sounding like a conspiracy theorist by stating known scientific facts that it is extremely possible to disable communications at will using old technology. It is not tin foil hat, it is old hat. Castro's brother could pull it off, if he wanted to. The Navy admitted it was a weather modification DEFENCE mechanism. Do they test it. No. Never.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
" Hurricanes act as the A/C units of the Atlantic, bringing warm water up to the polar regions. "

TC's transport heat vertically but at a variety of latitudes and with a variety of ventilation. Air coming out of a TC could go back equatorward in an outflow channel, poleward, or whatever. The frontal boundaries are where heat is consistently transported poleward. This is old news.
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 627. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Perhaps it'd be worth a plus if the comment was actually accurate.


oh its accurate and was said by many of the beloved posters on here..I'm sure many of the technology savys on here did a program search to find those statements and edit them in the archive..

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
631. SLU
Quoting 627. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Perhaps it'd be worst a plus if the comment was actually accurate.


Well at least he was right on the bust comment for sure. No subjectivity there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Some day (I hope!) some of you may learn how science really works.

Scientific theories are not built like a house of cards, such that if you pull out the right one, the entire thing collapses.

Rather, they're constructed as a network of ideas -- like a fishnet: You may be able to break one (or even a few) of the cords, but even if you do that, all that will happen is that a few of the little fishes will escape... the whale ain't likely goin' nowhere.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
And perhaps so would mine if I knew how to spell. :) Corrected it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 617. EstherD:

Eh? Cellphones use line-of-sight radio, and most Internet connections are via copper or fiber, although some (like mine) use the same radio technology as cellphones, and some use satellites. None of these technologies is in any way dependent on the ionosphere.
If there is a hole in the ionosphere, depending on where it is located on the Earth, certain elements can get in, or out. If someone is using your Dsl copper based mainframe for their fancy little gadgets(your kids), and the grid gets slow from sunspot interference, then the laptops. ect. could decrease band with. Like I said. You "COULD" blame HAARP for your slow or not working devises.
Radio signals under 30 MHz (give or take) are reflected off the ionosphere back to Earth, whereas radio signals over 30 MHz (give or take) normally go straight through the ionosphere. Saying that anything is not dependent on the ionosphere is ridiculous though. In that case we might as well just do away with it. Just watch the movie Hairspray and it will go away.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 616. SLU:


100000000000000000000000000000

Perhaps it'd be worth a plus if the comment was actually accurate.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting EstherD:

Eh? Cellphones use line-of-site radio, and most Internet connections are via copper or fiber, although some (like mine) use the same radio technology as cellphones, and some use satellites. None of these technologies is in any way dependent on the ionosphere.

Assuming that somehow you could create an extremely dense ionospheric atmosphere, it would affect anything that uses radio frequencies, from cell phones, which are only line of sight from you to a tower, and then depends on microwave or satellite, and your internet connection nearly all of which depend on satellite for at least one hop. The whole thing sounds nuts anyway, but any country or entity that could control atmospheric density could cause us lots of problems with almost all our electronics.
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Raymond is now nearing Category 2 intensity.

EP, 17, 2013102100, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1019W, 80, 978, HU
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Sitting here at my beach house in new smyrna beach. Ocean temp here is 83 in late October amazing!
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Quoting 610. CybrTeddy:
607. Good, don't put on the tinfoil hat. I sometimes think that conspiracy theorists don't even know what the government is doing to modify the weather. They're all over the place and it's rather hilarious. If they're trying to modify the weather for sinister reasons, wouldn't we have had Category 5 landfalls one after another? And if they're trying to protect us, why have events like Sandy, Irene, Gustav, et al happened in the last few years? They're doing a lousy job either way if they're trying to modify the weather.

People usually point towards HAARP for whatever reason, but they're usually at a loss to explain what HAARP is. It's an ionospheric research program, meaning it's goal is to research the atmosphere from 85 kilometers to 600 kilometers.. the orbits of the ISS and Hubble Space Telescope lie in those regions. Most of the people who believe in this theory can't even identify where the ionosphere is.


The government does a lousy job at everything.

But in all seriousness, people who blame the government for extreme weather, or lack there of, need to learn some actual meteorology.
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Quoting 608. Jedkins01:
The problem is he's right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
620. SLU
Quoting 590. UNThurricane2019:
Zero major hurricanes for 2013...Not only a "bust", but a huge blow for AGW sheeple... who affirmed over half a decade back that there would be more intense hurricanes but perhaps less TCs in general... last two years, 30/12/2... long term ratio, 22:13:6...


... and an average of 17-7.75-3 so far this decade. If I add 2009, 15.4-6.8-2.8.

So much for fewer TC's and more powerful hurricanes with 2014 set to potentially be another sub-par season relative to normal.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2013 has a shot of tying the record for fewest hurricanes in a season during the satellite era - 2.


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Quoting 612. washingtonian115:
Can I hit up everyone on here for 10 bucks each then :D.
Only if it is organic, and has do do with weather.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 615. Pallis:
... At the very least you can blame them for your cell phone not working and your internet connection being untrustworthy. ...

Eh? Cellphones use line-of-sight radio, and most Internet connections are via copper or fiber, although some (like mine) use the same radio technology as cellphones, and some use satellites. None of these technologies is in any way dependent on the ionosphere.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
616. SLU
Quoting 590. UNThurricane2019:
Zero major hurricanes for 2013...Not only a "bust", but a huge blow for AGW sheeple... who affirmed over half a decade back that there would be more intense hurricanes but perhaps less TCs in general... last two years, 30/12/2... long term ratio, 22:13:6...


+100000000000000000000000000000
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 610. CybrTeddy:
607. Good, don't put on the tinfoil hat. I sometimes don't think that conspiracy theorists even know what the government is doing to so much as modify the weather. They're all over the place and it's rather hilarious. If they're trying to modify the weather for sinister reasons, wouldn't we have had Category 5 landfalls one after another? And if they're trying to protect us, why have events like Sandy, Irene, Gustav, et al happened in the last few years? They're doing a lousy job either way if they're trying to modify the weather.

People usually point towards HAARP for whatever reason, but they're usually at a loss to explain what HAARP is. It's an ionospheric research program, meaning it's goal is to research the atmosphere from 85 kilometers to 600 kilometers.. the orbits of the ISS and Hubble Space Telescope lie in those regions. Most of the people who believe in this theory can't even identify where the ionosphere is.
NRL Scientists Produce Densest Artificial Ionospheric Plasma ...
www.nrl.navy.mil › ... › News Releases › 2013 News Releases‎. At the very least you can blame them for your cell phone not working and your internet connection being untrustworthy. So, do you agree that a coc was there concerning Raymond? Or are you looking at an alternative radar? This is a test.
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Interesting surroundings for Francisco
TD27 is evaporating..

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Quoting 609. DonnieBwkGA:


Using Dr. Master's blog to hit people up for money? Are you serious?
Can I hit up everyone on here for 10 bucks each then :D.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 609. DonnieBwkGA:


Using Dr. Master's blog to hit people up for money? Are you serious?
Sorry Donny, that was a joke, you did not have your humor button clicked. Although I would like my own Doppler radar, and if you all just sent me a dollar ...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
607. Good, don't put on the tinfoil hat. I sometimes think that conspiracy theorists don't even know what the government is doing to modify the weather. They're all over the place and it's rather hilarious. If they're trying to modify the weather for sinister reasons, wouldn't we have had Category 5 landfalls one after another? And if they're trying to protect us, why have events like Sandy, Irene, Gustav, et al happened in the last few years? They're doing a lousy job either way if they're trying to modify the weather.

People usually point towards HAARP for whatever reason, but they're usually at a loss to explain what HAARP is. It's an ionospheric research program, meaning it's goal is to research the atmosphere from 85 kilometers to 600 kilometers.. the orbits of the ISS and Hubble Space Telescope lie in those regions. Most of the people who believe in this theory can't even identify where the ionosphere is.
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Quoting 590. UNThurricane2019:
Zero major hurricanes for 2013...Not only a "bust", but a huge blow for AGW sheeple... who affirmed over half a decade back that there would be more intense hurricanes but perhaps less TCs in general... last two years, 30/12/2... long term ratio, 22:13:6...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 575. EstherD:

Yes, I am aware that certain techniques can cause transient, localized effects. So I will amend my previous statement:
If "weather modification" actually worked on a global scale, then there might be grounds for concern... that weather models might become unreliable.

And yes I am aware of "the history of the military experimenting on Americans", which makes me very nervous about the things that our government is doing in secret. But I'm still not quite ready for a tinfoil hat just yet.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 590. UNThurricane2019:
Zero major hurricanes for 2013...Not only a "bust", but a huge blow for AGW sheeple... who affirmed over half a decade back that there would be more intense hurricanes but perhaps less TCs in general... last two years, 30/12/2... long term ratio, 22:13:6...


The reason the season had a lack of major hurricanes this season was the lack of vertical instability in the Atlantic. We also saw this in 2012 and 2011, but this year had it much worse. Arguably, this is because there's simply no focus of heat in our basin. Having no focus of heat results in less active hurricane seasons. Hurricanes act as the A/C units of the Atlantic, bringing warm water up to the polar regions. Waters already plenty warm there, making the need for hurricanes less and less necessary in my opinion.

NOAA officials have been stating that tropical cyclone activity would remain the same or slightly less. What don't people get about this? It's the media with their outlandish headlines like "HURRICANES TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND POWERFUL SCIENTISTS SAY" to attract views, because they know that's all people are going to read into it, while completely spinning the worlds of the climatologist or weather forecaster -- or bringing in someone who has absolutely no idea what they're talking about.

The Pacific has also been suffering this season, but has recently decided to show off with numerous powerful typhoons (yes, those actually do count as hurricanes, shocking, the Atlantic isn't the only basin that matters) including just yesterday a Super Typhoon and a few weeks before that one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the northern-Indian ocean. But still it doesn't make up for the fact the Pacific has been rather stagnant this year in ACE counts, and in the last few years the case has been the same.

I'd argue that the period of activity in the Atlantic, which started in 1995, ended in 2010 when vertical instability in the Atlantic started becoming below average in the MDR.
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Quoting 570. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Are we all somewhat agreeing that a lack of an El-Nino caused this Atlantic Hurricane Season to be a dud, just in the overall sense of things?
No I believe Stable air was a big factor to it but I don`t believe a lack of El Niño to be a problem.
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Quoting 597. Climate175:
We must once agaib be the snowiest city in the country..


unless you live around Syracuse, N.Y .. that area receives more snow on average then any where else in the us .. averaging near or over 100 inches a season ..
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Excerpt from the Miami NWS Disco...

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ENOUGH THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL OOZE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY EVENING SO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY COULD STILL SEE
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE
AND BE LESS HUMID FOR THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT
WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS WHERE IT WILL STALL AND MAY
BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS
POINT IN TIME.

For West Palm Beach..

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Quoting 600. Birthmark:

You're a bit out to lunch on AGW. I suggest you read the science.
I got a better idea me and you can take him for lunch and show him the science. :D
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Quoting 597. Climate175:
We must once again be the snowiest city in the country..
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather