Super Typhoon Francisco Becomes Earth's 3rd Category 5 Storm of 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2013

Mighty Super Typhoon Francisco has intensified to become Earth's third Category 5 storm of 2013. The other two Cat 5s were Cyclone Phailin, which hit India earlier this month at Category 3 or 4 strength, killing 44 and causing at least $1 billion in damage, and Super Typhoon Usagi, which hit China just east of Hong Kong as a Category 2 storm on September 22, killing 50 and causing at least $3.8 billion in damage. Satellite loops show a spectacular, well-organized storm with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, Francisco is likely to stay at Category 5 strength until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. Francisco is headed northwest towards Japan, and will likely stay at Category 4 or stronger intensity until Tuesday, when the storm will encounter higher wind shear and cooler waters. By the time Franciso makes its closest approach to Japan on Thursday, weakening to Category 2 or lesser strength is likely. In their Saturday morning runs, both the European model and GFS model predicted that Francisco would turn northeastwards on Wednesday, and hit Japan on Thursday. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, though, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 19, 2013. At the time, Francisco was a Category 5 storm with top winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Intriguing Tipping Points TV Series Begins Airing Saturday at 9pm EDT
How does one tell the most important story of our time--the emergence of our great Climate Disruption--without boring one's audience to tears, but at the same time, not resorting to over-hyped spinning of the science? “Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that begins airing at 9 pm EDT Saturday, October 19 on The Weather Channel, aims to do just that. "Tipping Points" follows a group of preeminent scientists as they venture off the grid to explore the perilous tipping points making our weather systems more extreme and unpredictable. The first episode at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT this Saturday will be "Amazon Rainforest Risks". "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom will join Peter Cox, Professor of Climate System Dynamics at the University of Exeter, on an expedition across the vast Amazon Rainforest to explore the mega droughts and tree deaths occurring that threaten the forest's survival this century.



Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting 548. Hurricane614:


could you post something,(a link is fine to) so I can see if I will get any snow?
Ok where are you at ?
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Quoting 544. Climate175:
18z gfs shows snow for washi and me and other folks in the Maryland area finally amem


could you post something,(a link is fine to) so I can see if I will get any snow?
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Dang please verify GFS.. snow snow snow
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Quoting 544. Climate175:
18z gfs shows snow for washi and me and other folks in the Maryland area finally
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Quoting 542. wunderkidcayman:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 202335
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...THEN TURNS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...


Oh, didn't see that. It actually looks somewhat healthy. I don't think will do anything, and if it does, it won't last long most likely. At least it's something to watch.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
18z gfs shows snow for washi and me and other folks in the Maryland area finally amem
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...THEN TURNS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 202335
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...THEN TURNS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...
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Hmm finally something in the Atlantic
Yellow on the TWO
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LBAR still likes my living room.
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How intense do you guys think Raymond could get?
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National Weather Service New Orleans la
357 PM CDT sun Oct 20 2013

Short term...

A region of enhanced baroclinicity across the northwest Gulf of Mexico...combined with broad region of enhanced forcing beneath the right rear quadrant of 120 knot jet streak will allow for the formation of a surface low over the northwest Gulf tonight into
tomorrow morning.

At the same time...a broad region of increased positive vorticity advection in advance of an approaching short- wave trough currently diving southward through the Central Plains will produce strong middle to upper level Omega values and resultant forcing across the Gulf south tomorrow. As the surface low strengthens tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening...warm
frontal processes will develop with isentropically induced showers developing over the coastal waters and immediate Louisiana coast by early afternoon.

These showers will continue to spread inland
as the warm front moves onshore late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Have included a chance of probability of precipitation for areas south of
the Interstate 10 corridor. There will be a very sharp gradient in terms of precipitation...as the moisture gradually builds down from the mid-levels. As a result...expect to see increasing clouds but no shower activity over the northern zones in southwest Mississippi.

By tomorrow night

...widespread isentropic lift will be in place
across areas north of Interstate 10...with light to moderate rain showers expected. Forcing will be additionally enhanced by the approaching short wave trough and attendant surface boundary.
The warm frontal boundary in advance of the surface low will be draped along the Interstate 10 corridor...allowing for a bit more instability across coastal Louisiana and metropolitan New Orleans.

Have included a slight chance of thunderstorms for these areas...including the offshore waters. The threat of strong convection will be limited...due to fairly weak lapse rates aloft.

The surface low will quickly shift to the east on
Tuesday...allowing the surface front to sweep through the forecast area.

Expect to see early morning precipitation to quickly end by late morning for most areas. Only a few lingering showers are expected by Tuesday afternoon along the immediate coast. An elevated inversion tied in with the frontal passage should keep a lingering stratus deck in place through the day...with rapid
clearing during the overnight hours as the main upper level trough axis sweeps through and a much colder and drier airmass begins to advect in.
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Quoting 529. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ocean Heat Content has dropped to nothing. That's probably the reason.


Oh I didn't know, I assumed it was pretty uniform for a while, that is probably why then.
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
500 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...RAYMOND BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 101.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION WITH
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

RAYMOND IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 15 MILES...25 KM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE
OF GUERRERO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADJACENT BORDERING STATES OF
OAXACA AND MICHOACAN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
...RAYMOND BECOMES A HURRICANE...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
500 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...RAYMOND BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 101.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
531. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST October 21 2013
====================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1005 hPa) located at 5.3S 171.5E is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots. Position poor based on multispectral visible imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection persistent in the past 24 hours. Organization has not improved past 24 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500hpa.

Global models have picked up the system and move it southwest with slight intensification.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...THEN TURNS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.

&&
something to watch
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Quoting 527. Jedkins01:


Cloudtops as a whole are rapidly warming, sort of odd if you ask me.

Ocean Heat Content has dropped to nothing. That's probably the reason.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...THEN TURNS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


Cloudtops as a whole are rapidly warming, sort of odd if you ask me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 514. allancalderini:
can`t believe a system name Lorenzo to be strong.That name usually scream to name weak storm.
Well not many "L" named storms have been retired. Only 3 "L" named storms have been retired: Luis, Lili, and Lenny.
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winds 100 mph in 72 hours.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
SOUTH CAROLINA LAW ENFORCEMENT DIVISION IN COLUMBIA SOUTH
CAROLINA
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
728 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY...

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA LAW ENFORCEMENT DIVISION IN COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA.

WE HAVE JUST RECEIVED THIS IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT REGARDING AN
ABDUCTED CHILD IN SIMPSONVILLE SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE SOUTH CAROLINA STATE LAW ENFORCEMENT DIVISION IS LOOKING FOR
JUSTIN SANTIAGO PEREZ...A 2 FOOT 5 INCH TWO YEAR OLD HISPANIC MALE
WITH SHORT BLACK HAIR AND BROWN EYES WEIGHING 30 POUNDS. THE
CHILD WAS LAST SEEN WEARING RED ELMO PAJAMAS AND A WHITE GUESS
SHIRT. THE CHILD WAS LAST SEEN AT 729 SOUTHEAST MAIN STREET IN
SIMPSONVILLE AND IS BELIEVED TO BE IN EXTREME DANGER.

AUTHORITIES ADVISE THE CHILD WAS LIKELY ABDUCTED BY WBERNEL
PEREZ A 5 FOOT 6 INCH 35 YEAR OLD HISPANIC MALE WITH BROWN BLACK
HAIR AND BROWN EYES WEIGHING 140 POUNDS. THEY MAY BE TRAVELING IN
A BLACK 2010 HYUNDAI ELANTRA WITH SOUTH CAROLINA PLATE HLX-732.

IF YOU HAVE ANY INFORMATION REGARDING THIS ABDUCTION, CALL LAW
ENFORCEMENT IMMEDIATELY.

Possible Suspect:

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Quoting 522. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY. THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH A BAND OF COLD CONVECTIVE
TOPS WRAPPING AROUND THE THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T3.5
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM JUST BEFORE 1600 UTC
SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 55 KT AT SYNOPTIC TIME. HOWEVER...AN EYE
FEATURE HAS SINCE BEEN DEVELOPING IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS RAYMOND REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH SOON...AND PEAKS
THE SYSTEM AT 85 KT FROM 24 THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT RAYMOND COULD GET STRONG THAN THIS IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
CONTINUES. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM THROUGH 36 HOURS
AND NEAR A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM AFTER THAT TIME. THIS
FORECAST IS A QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
AIDS...SINCE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BOTH SHOW WEAKENING AFTER
MOVING THE CENTER OF RAYMOND INLAND.

A BLEND OF RECENT FIXES AND THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 340/06...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RAYMOND SHOULD TURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...STEERING
CURRENTS WILL WEAKEN ON DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH A SLOW AND ERRATIC
MOTION LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. CONSIDERABLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER
WILL GET TO THE COAST...AND WHETHER LANDFALL WILL OCCUR. THE HWRF
AND GFDL NOW BOTH SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING INLAND BY 36 HOURS...
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THE CENTER OF RAYMOND VERY CLOSE
TO THE COAST AROUND THAT TIME. THE NHC TRACK DOES NOT SHOW
LANDFALL...BUT HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
THE TVCE CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS AND THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE
TRACK...AND WHETHER THE CENTER OF RAYMOND WILL REACH THE COAST...
REMAINS QUITE LOW...AND ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

GIVEN THE NEW NHC FORECAST AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF
RAYMOND...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE CENTER OF RAYMOND MOVES INLAND...HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 15.6N 101.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 15.9N 101.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 16.3N 101.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 16.6N 101.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 16.8N 101.8W 85 KT 100 MPH


winds 100 mph!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY. THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH A BAND OF COLD CONVECTIVE
TOPS WRAPPING AROUND THE THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T3.5
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM JUST BEFORE 1600 UTC
SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 55 KT AT SYNOPTIC TIME. HOWEVER...AN EYE
FEATURE HAS SINCE BEEN DEVELOPING IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS RAYMOND REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH SOON...AND PEAKS
THE SYSTEM AT 85 KT FROM 24 THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT RAYMOND COULD GET STRONG THAN THIS IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
CONTINUES. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM THROUGH 36 HOURS
AND NEAR A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM AFTER THAT TIME. THIS
FORECAST IS A QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
AIDS...SINCE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BOTH SHOW WEAKENING AFTER
MOVING THE CENTER OF RAYMOND INLAND.

A BLEND OF RECENT FIXES AND THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 340/06...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RAYMOND SHOULD TURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...STEERING
CURRENTS WILL WEAKEN ON DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH A SLOW AND ERRATIC
MOTION LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. CONSIDERABLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER
WILL GET TO THE COAST...AND WHETHER LANDFALL WILL OCCUR. THE HWRF
AND GFDL NOW BOTH SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING INLAND BY 36 HOURS...
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THE CENTER OF RAYMOND VERY CLOSE
TO THE COAST AROUND THAT TIME. THE NHC TRACK DOES NOT SHOW
LANDFALL...BUT HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
THE TVCE CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS AND THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE
TRACK...AND WHETHER THE CENTER OF RAYMOND WILL REACH THE COAST...
REMAINS QUITE LOW...AND ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

GIVEN THE NEW NHC FORECAST AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF
RAYMOND...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE CENTER OF RAYMOND MOVES INLAND...HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 15.6N 101.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 15.9N 101.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 16.3N 101.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 16.6N 101.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 16.8N 101.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
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Quoting 514. allancalderini:
can`t believe a system name Lorenzo to be strong.That name usually scream to name weak storm.

Believe it or not but Lorenzo does sound like a name for a strong hurricane.
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Quoting 519. allancalderini:
Lol true but its a beautiful name for girls.When I have a daughter might consider that name.:P

Yeah, I prefer Isabel myself. Beautiful name, beautiful hurricane.
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Quoting 517. Doppler22:
Sandy doesn't sound like a storm that would be strong to me. Look what it did. You never know :p
Lol true but its a beautiful name for girls.When I have a daughter might consider that name.:P
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Typhoon 26W FANSISCO

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 OCT 2013 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 19:53:15 N Lon : 136:16:53 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 941.8mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : -12.5C Cloud Region Temp : -65.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 122km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.3 degrees


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Quoting 514. allancalderini:
can`t believe a system name Lorenzo to be strong.That name usually scream to name weak storm.
Sandy doesn't sound like a storm that would be strong to me. Look what it did. You never know :p
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RAP model 21z forecast sfc temps lows tonight
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Quoting 509. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looks like around the end of this month and start of next month we'll be looking at something in the Western Caribbean as the MJO likely pays us one last visit for the hurricane season.

can`t believe a system name Lorenzo to be strong.That name usually scream to name weak storm.
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I wouldn't be sure of Raymond staying offshore. As I talked about yesterday, a deeper tropical cyclone will be able to feel the weakness over northern Mexico more and be pulled in that direction. The GFS and ECMWF, which keep the system offshore in the short term, did not pick up on this round of rapid intensification.

The NHC noted the uncertainty:

THE HWRF
AND GFDL NOW BOTH SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING INLAND BY 36 HOURS...
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THE CENTER OF RAYMOND VERY CLOSE
TO THE COAST AROUND THAT TIME. THE NHC TRACK DOES NOT SHOW
LANDFALL...BUT HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
THE TVCE CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS AND THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE
TRACK...AND WHETHER THE CENTER OF RAYMOND WILL REACH THE COAST...
REMAINS QUITE LOW...AND ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

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Quoting 510. washingtonian115:
It's a little to late 2013.
ya but we can or could get one little something maybe a big something but time is running out when the window opens it will be short then slam shut for what remains of the season

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Quoting 509. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looks like around the end of this month and start of next month we'll be looking at something in the Western Caribbean as the MJO likely pays us one last visit for the hurricane season.



what MJO?? seems like the MJO been on vacation for all this season the MJO been in the E and W PAC most of hurricane season this year why you think the E PAC has 18 name storms and the W PAC 28 name storms
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Quoting 509. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looks like around the end of this month and start of next month we'll be looking at something in the Western Caribbean as the MJO likely pays us one last visit for the hurricane season.

It's a little to late 2013.
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Looks like around the end of this month and start of next month we'll be looking at something in the Western Caribbean as the MJO likely pays us one last visit for the hurricane season.

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Quoting 500. FLWeatherFreak91:
... Basically, I'm wondering if the models will become confused in regards to the real way the atmosphere naturally works and slowly become unreliable due to weather modification?

If "weather modification" actually worked, then there might be grounds for concern. However, as it is, "weather modification" seems to be little more than a money pit into which groups like DoD and DARPA throw unconscionable amounts of cash that could be better spent elsewhere. So I'm more concerned about the distortion of research funding priorities than the possibility that weather models might become unreliable.
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Quoting 504. redwagon:


Why is the Pacific having a robust season while the Alantic has been non-prolific lately?


Well up until this point the Pacific had been behaving like the Atlantic.
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New burst of convection in the southwest eyewall:

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Quoting 504. redwagon:


Why is the Pacific having a robust season while the Alantic has been non-prolific lately?
I would say el nino but that's not to happen till next season
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Quoting 500. FLWeatherFreak91:
I was thinking a lot earlier about weather modification and its effects on atmospheric modeling. Maybe you all can give some insight...

Let's just assume that there is some degree of weather modification being carried out. Either on a small scale such as chaff or on a large scale like HAARP.

The models use climatology to some degree to create their outcomes, so won't skewing natural phenomena provide an incorrect sample of the atmosphere for the models?

Basically, I'm wondering if the models will become confused in regards to the real way the atmosphere naturally works and slowly become unreliable due to weather modification?


Why is the Pacific having a robust season while the Alantic has been non-prolific lately?
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Quoting 494. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



2015

14 maybe spin rinse repeat
Every 10 years the Atlantic likes to mis-behave.For a example 1985,1995,and 2005 were all unfriendly hurricane seasons.
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502. VR46L
Quoting 501. LargoFl:
well good night folks..................


Night Largo !

Have a good evening !
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well good night folks..................
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I was thinking a lot earlier about weather modification and its effects on atmospheric modeling. Maybe you all can give some insight...

Let's just assume that there is some degree of weather modification being carried out. Either on a small scale such as chaff or on a large scale like HAARP.

The models use climatology to some degree to create their outcomes, so won't skewing natural phenomena provide an incorrect sample of the atmosphere for the models?

Basically, I'm wondering if the models will become confused in regards to the real way the atmosphere naturally works and slowly become unreliable due to weather modification?
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499. VR46L
Quoting 496. BaltimoreBrian:
VR46L that's no fun, just when the FIM was getting good!


If it was any good at 7 days then maybe there would be interest in it going to 384 but while its poor 14 days is plenty ... IMO
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather