Super Typhoon Francisco Becomes Earth's 3rd Category 5 Storm of 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2013

Mighty Super Typhoon Francisco has intensified to become Earth's third Category 5 storm of 2013. The other two Cat 5s were Cyclone Phailin, which hit India earlier this month at Category 3 or 4 strength, killing 44 and causing at least $1 billion in damage, and Super Typhoon Usagi, which hit China just east of Hong Kong as a Category 2 storm on September 22, killing 50 and causing at least $3.8 billion in damage. Satellite loops show a spectacular, well-organized storm with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, Francisco is likely to stay at Category 5 strength until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. Francisco is headed northwest towards Japan, and will likely stay at Category 4 or stronger intensity until Tuesday, when the storm will encounter higher wind shear and cooler waters. By the time Franciso makes its closest approach to Japan on Thursday, weakening to Category 2 or lesser strength is likely. In their Saturday morning runs, both the European model and GFS model predicted that Francisco would turn northeastwards on Wednesday, and hit Japan on Thursday. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, though, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 19, 2013. At the time, Francisco was a Category 5 storm with top winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Intriguing Tipping Points TV Series Begins Airing Saturday at 9pm EDT
How does one tell the most important story of our time--the emergence of our great Climate Disruption--without boring one's audience to tears, but at the same time, not resorting to over-hyped spinning of the science? “Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that begins airing at 9 pm EDT Saturday, October 19 on The Weather Channel, aims to do just that. "Tipping Points" follows a group of preeminent scientists as they venture off the grid to explore the perilous tipping points making our weather systems more extreme and unpredictable. The first episode at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT this Saturday will be "Amazon Rainforest Risks". "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom will join Peter Cox, Professor of Climate System Dynamics at the University of Exeter, on an expedition across the vast Amazon Rainforest to explore the mega droughts and tree deaths occurring that threaten the forest's survival this century.



Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 499 - 449

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

499. VR46L
Quoting 496. BaltimoreBrian:
VR46L that's no fun, just when the FIM was getting good!


If it was any good at 7 days then maybe there would be interest in it going to 384 but while its poor 14 days is plenty ... IMO
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Good morning Francisco.


Lekima
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 473. MiamiHeat305:


IF something formed in the CARIB do you think it would head NW then N and NE like the typical October/November Tracks?


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
VR46L that's no fun, just when the FIM was getting good!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
495. VR46L
Quoting 488. BaltimoreBrian:
Does the FIM stop at 336 hours or go on to 384? I've been waiting for it to produce new panels.


336 hrs as far as I can tell ...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 490. washingtonian115:
Someone just put a gun to this seasons head.

Who knows maybe all of our jokes saying the atlantic is a desert will come to bit us in the tail next year..



2015

14 maybe spin rinse repeat
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 487. VR46L:


Thanks Red !

I guess the same can be said of many of the models consistency,,, or lack of ;)


We'd have to ask the FIM authors (programmers/developers) what's different about this series, as they (I think) they were GFS coders until the FIM set was conceived.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
492. VR46L



Ascat



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Someone just put a gun to this seasons head.

Who knows maybe all of our jokes saying the atlantic is a desert will come to bit us in the tail next year..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Does the FIM stop at 336 hours or go on to 384? I've been waiting for it to produce new panels.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
487. VR46L
Quoting 485. redwagon:


The FIM series develops strongly storms that never develop, but seems to do well 5 days out. Real hit and miss. Not sure what components it lacks to be consistent.


Thanks Red !

I guess the same can be said of many of the models consistency,,, or lack of ;)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 471. VR46L:


Are you still championing the FIM Model :)


The FIM series develops strongly storms that never develop, but seems to do well 5 days out. Real hit and miss. Not sure what components it lacks to be consistent.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
484. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
What's been the problem with the NRL Tropical Cyclone Page lately? It's been having trouble updating again.


FNMOC link (site will ask for security permission from browser)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 481. BaltimoreBrian:


928 mb over Baltimore


Then it will stall off shore and become sub 900 mb before hitting the northeast.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 463. HadesGodWyvern:


Well that data is 6 hours old.. so I forgive the underestimation. =P
I just post whats there I never change add or extend anything
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 477. wxgeek723:


It will phase with the trough and become a superstorm.


928 mb over Baltimore
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 439. LargoFl:
well 2 models for the last 3 runs have him going to the gulf..lets see what they say tomorrow night..he's not going anywhere fast nhc says.

Dunno about BAMD, but I think the LBAR solution that puts Raymond into the GOM can be discounted completely.

I did some reading on LBAR yesterday. Best I can determine, the LBAR model has no concept of geography whatsoever... it assumes the whole world is an ocean of shallow water. So it never even sees the Mexican landmass, let alone the high mountains. Can anyone more knowledgeable confirm that? Thanks...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 470. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Whoa! But it's fantasy land.

if you look at the gfs at 384 hours it goes into central america
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 474. BaltimoreBrian:
And by 450 hours it will hook up with an arctic airmass and make a snowcane for the mid-Atlantic ;)


It will phase with the trough and become a superstorm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 471. VR46L:


Are you still championing the FIM Model :)
Yes, because it uses some of the same physics as the GFS, it really is kind of like the experimental version of the GFS, and I have noticed when one is showing development the other shows development almost in the same spot.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Does the FIM run to 384 hours?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And by 450 hours it will hook up with an arctic airmass and make a snowcane for the mid-Atlantic ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 470. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Whoa! But it's fantasy land.



IF something formed in the CARIB do you think it would head NW then N and NE like the typical October/November Tracks?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What's been the problem with the NRL Tropical Cyclone Page lately? It's been having trouble updating again.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
471. VR46L
Quoting 470. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Whoa! But it's fantasy land.



Are you still championing the FIM Model :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Whoa! But it's fantasy land.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 465. redwagon:


Eventually the CARIB will light up soon too?
FIM-7 and 8 and I know the 12z GFS was showing development near the end of its run.



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
468. VR46L
Quoting 454. MiamiHeat305:


going through RI?



The Temps are not Screaming the Rocket fuel of RI

Warm yes though
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
467. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
24H 21/1800Z 16.3N 101.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 16.6N 101.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 16.8N 101.8W 85 KT 100 MPH

Raymond forecast.. northwest then slightly northeast before heading back on track northwestward?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 465. redwagon:


Eventually the CARIB will light up soon too?
It comes down to 2 things really: 1) How strong is the MJO pulse when it reaches our basin and 2) Atmospheric Conditions (wind shear & dry air).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 445. wxchaser97:
Raymond is now expected to become a 100mph category 2 hurricane, but it could become stronger than that with its recent organization trends.


Eventually the CARIB will light up soon too?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Raymond is really wrapping up now as evidence of an eye showing up on visible with spiral banding. Looks like nice outflow and a favorable upper level environment. The geographic shape of the coastline might also be helping it ramp up.



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
463. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


TXPQ22 KNES 201600
TCSWNP

A. 28W (NONAME)

B. 20/1432Z

C. 10.6N

D. 160.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...28W HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY IN ITS IR SATELLITE PRESENTATION
PAST 24 HRS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED RAPIDLY EVEN IN PAST 6-12 HRS
AROUND LLCC. CENTER LOCATION WAS AIDED BY RECENT SSMIS AND AMSU IMAGERY. 4
TENTHS BANDING TIGHT AROUND CENTER GIVES DT=2.5. MET=2.5 BASED ON 24 HR
RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND. PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

20/0936Z 10.4N 160.3E SSMIS
20/1053Z 10.4N 160.5E AMSU


...RUMINSKI



Well that data is 6 hours old.. so I forgive the underestimation. =P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


TXPQ22 KNES 201600
TCSWNP

A. 28W (NONAME)

B. 20/1432Z

C. 10.6N

D. 160.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...28W HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY IN ITS IR SATELLITE PRESENTATION
PAST 24 HRS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED RAPIDLY EVEN IN PAST 6-12 HRS
AROUND LLCC. CENTER LOCATION WAS AIDED BY RECENT SSMIS AND AMSU IMAGERY. 4
TENTHS BANDING TIGHT AROUND CENTER GIVES DT=2.5. MET=2.5 BASED ON 24 HR
RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND. PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

20/0936Z 10.4N 160.3E SSMIS
20/1053Z 10.4N 160.5E AMSU


...RUMINSKI

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
461. VR46L
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 451. LargoFl:
At 1800 UTC, 20 October 2013, TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND (EP17) was located in the Northeast Pacific basin at 15.2°N and 101.8°W. The current intensity was 55 kt and the center was moving at 6 kt at a bearing of 320 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb.



no its not



...RAYMOND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF THE
MEXICAN COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 101.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


TXPQ29 KNES 201547
TCSWNP

A. 26W (FRANCISCO)

B. 20/1432Z

C. 18.9N

D. 136.8E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/W1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/TMI/AMSU

H. REMARKS...FRANCISCO STILL SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE..PARTIALLY OPEN..IN
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. EYE IS CLOUD FILLED IN ANIMATED MTSAT IR IMAGERY
AS IT APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH A REPLACEMENT CYCLE. CENTER IS EMBEDDED
IN LG FOR CF OF 4.5. ADDING 1.0 FOR BF GIVES FT=5.5. MET=6.0 BASED ON
24 HR WEAKENING TREND. PT=5.5. CI IS ALSO 5.5 DUE TO HIGHEST FT OF 5.5
IN PREVIOUS 12 HRS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

20/0947Z 18.5N 137.2E TMI
20/1150Z 18.6N 136.9E AMSU


...RUMINSKI



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
458. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center says this is a tropical depression as of 21z. Gonna have to say no.




2013OCT20 200100 3.6 985.8 3.4 57.0 3.6 3.7 3.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -58.31 -69.53 UNIFRM N/A N/A 10.64 -160.78

around T3.5 from Tokyo ADT (TS LEKIMA)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



TXPZ25 KNES 201828
TCSENP

A. 17E (RAYMOND)

B. 20/1745Z

C. 15.1N

D. 101.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT

H. REMARKS...RAYMOND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH LLCC FIRMLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN DENSE OVERCAST WITH SPIRAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
COMPLETELY AROUND. 10 TENTHS BANDING GIVES DT=3.5. MET=3.0 BASED ON 24
HR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND. PT=3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

20/1236Z 14.7N 101.5W WINDSAT


...RUMINSKI
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 454. MiamiHeat305:


going through RI?
yep
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
sure looks like an eye forming huh...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 449. LargoFl:
it is looking better for him to hit mexico..we need to see if he does and tries to cross over into the gulf later on..


going through RI?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 449. LargoFl:
it is looking better for him to hit mexico..we need to see if he does and tried to cross over into the gulf later on..

Yeah, although I don't think it's likely that the small storm will amount to much there. Remember Barbara, who crossed the Mexican isthmus as a hurricane but died out? It's possible it could have a track similar to the beginnings of Tina 1992.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 445. wxchaser97:
Raymond is now expected to become a 100mph category 2 hurricane, but it could become stronger than that with its recent organization trends.


maybe a major?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
At 1800 UTC, 20 October 2013, TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND (EP17) was located in the Northeast Pacific basin at 15.2°N and 101.8°W. The current intensity was 55 kt and the center was moving at 6 kt at a bearing of 320 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 445. wxchaser97:
Raymond is now expected to become a 100mph category 2 hurricane, but it could become stronger than that with its recent organization trends.
wow amazing
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 447. Stormlover16:
I'd give Raymond a 40% chance of hitting Mexico as a cat. 3 or higher if current trends continue.
it is looking better for him to hit mexico..we need to see if he does and tries to cross over into the gulf later on..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 499 - 449

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Top of Page

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather