Super Typhoon Francisco Becomes Earth's 3rd Category 5 Storm of 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2013

Mighty Super Typhoon Francisco has intensified to become Earth's third Category 5 storm of 2013. The other two Cat 5s were Cyclone Phailin, which hit India earlier this month at Category 3 or 4 strength, killing 44 and causing at least $1 billion in damage, and Super Typhoon Usagi, which hit China just east of Hong Kong as a Category 2 storm on September 22, killing 50 and causing at least $3.8 billion in damage. Satellite loops show a spectacular, well-organized storm with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, Francisco is likely to stay at Category 5 strength until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. Francisco is headed northwest towards Japan, and will likely stay at Category 4 or stronger intensity until Tuesday, when the storm will encounter higher wind shear and cooler waters. By the time Franciso makes its closest approach to Japan on Thursday, weakening to Category 2 or lesser strength is likely. In their Saturday morning runs, both the European model and GFS model predicted that Francisco would turn northeastwards on Wednesday, and hit Japan on Thursday. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, though, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 19, 2013. At the time, Francisco was a Category 5 storm with top winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Intriguing Tipping Points TV Series Begins Airing Saturday at 9pm EDT
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Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Looks like the stubborn blocking pattern is going to set in for a while, keeping the Midwest and East mostly below normal, while Alaska and the West Coast have it relatively easy...

cpc

cpc
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Quoting 380. washingtonian115:
LMAO.This is no longer a 30mph storm...

came out of nowhere
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Quoting 384. sar2401:



Droughts, inland flooding from tropical storms, and SAL outbreaks have been happening for thousands of years. At least from the records available, there's nothing unusual happening except we've had a hurricane drought. Those things happen also, we just don't know how common they are in the long, unrecorded history of hurricanes on earth. I think you're reaching in an attempt to explain something when the best explanation is we just don't know.


I have wondered to what extent the jet stream's extreme meanders have been an influence on the season. They bring cool dry air South at high altitudes and it sinks -- dry sinking air is not good for vertical instability. We're hearing that this pattern of extreme meanders is a result of a reduction in the speed of the jet caused by a reduction in the temperature difference between the mid-latitude and the Arctic. If the jet stream is the guilty party we can expect more seasons like 2013!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 389. MiamiHeat305:
can Raymond cross Mexico Re Emerge in the GOM and develop again ?

No. Very unlikely.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 389. MiamiHeat305:
can Raymond cross Mexico Re Emerge in the GOM and develop again ?
Manuel part 2 then.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
393. VR46L
Quoting 389. MiamiHeat305:
can Raymond cross Mexico Re Emerge in the GOM and develop again ?


It too far north I think to make it in tact across , . with the fronts coming down the way they are But I guess ya never know ..

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
392. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
JMA upgrades 28W to a tropical storm and names it "LEKIMA" near Marshall Island.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM LEKIMA (T1328)
3:00 PM JST October 21 2013
=====================================

Near Marshall Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Lekima (1000 hPa) located at 10.6N 161.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Gale Force Winds
===================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 12.5N 158.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Island
48 HRS: 15.5N 153.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Minami torishima
72 HRS: 17.6N 149.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Marianas Island

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (T1327)
3:00 AM JST October 21 2013
=====================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Francisco (935 hPa) located at 19.3N 136.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
240 NM from the center in north quadrant
210 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 21.8N 135.8E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 23.8N 133.7E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) southeast of Minami Daito Island
72 HRS: 25.4N 132.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Minami Daito Island waters
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Raymond will likely be a hurricane this evening. It's close to becoming one right now.
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Quoting 389. MiamiHeat305:
can Raymond cross Mexico Re Emerge in the GOM and develop again ?



nop its not going too cross mx





its going too turn W and head out too sea
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
can Raymond cross Mexico Re Emerge in the GOM and develop again ?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Power of the jet is huge..
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Quoting 385. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe not this one but by the end of the run ya will be getting close


day before halloween

Thanks. I like the weather in South Florida because it doesn't get too cold here during the winter, but I'm sorta hating how summer doesn't end here until like November.
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Quoting 383. 12george1:
Wish that cold front would bring South Florida's temperatures into the 50s.
maybe not this one but by the end of the run ya will be getting close


day before halloween
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I have a feeling that the SAL is more damaging to a season's total numbers, strength of storms, and ACE. The Atlantic Basin is the only basin that has to deal with that. Also, the article on AGW I just posted suggesting more extreme droughts and flooding does carry some weight. Think about the Tropical Systems we have had here recently, most of them like Sandy, Isaac, Debby, and Lee brought serious inland flooding with them. Now that is not all, just this past year parts of Colorado and parts of Toronto saw historic flooding that washed away roads and left people stranded in their vehicles. Then you have an ongoing drought in Texas which has been alleviated somewhat by recent rainfall from the remnants of tropical systems in the Pacific and cold fronts and you have drought conditions in Brazil. So is there a correlation between strong SAL outbreaks and extreme weather events over land that are non-tropically related? Also, is this years episodes of SAL outbreak stronger than 2006?




All the storms you mentioned were pikers compared to Hurricane Agnes of 1972 when it comes to inland flooding. The flooding in PA through Canada is the still the worst in recorded history. It was still a extra-tropical cyclone when it hit Scotland with a pressure of 980 mb's, and was headed north toward Iceland when it was finally absorbed by a strong North Atlantic front. Places like Colorado are subject to periodic flooding - the Big Thompson flood of 1976 was much worse than this year's flood and killed 143 people - as well as periodic droughts. Much of Kansas was abandoned by homesteaders from 1890 to 1900 because of severe drought. They believed (as did many of the experts at the time), that "rain follows the plow" and that dry areas would get more rain because of the increased vegetation from farming. We now know that's not true, as confirmed by much worse drought in the 1930's.

Droughts, inland flooding from tropical storms, and SAL outbreaks have been happening for thousands of years. At least from the records available, there's nothing unusual happening except we've had a hurricane drought. Those things happen also, we just don't know how common they are in the long, unrecorded history of hurricanes on earth. I think you're reaching in an attempt to explain something when the best explanation is we just don't know.
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Wish that cold front would bring South Florida's temperatures into the 50s.
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Quoting 362. TropicalAnalystwx13:

A lot of meteorologists have attributed a warm subtropical Atlantic to the bust. I guess it's possible but years in the past had the same feature with no issues in terms of activity or strength. Others have attributed a switch to the negative AMO but monthly indices have been even higher than last year. For whatever reason, the MJO has vanished several times upon entering the Atlantic this year despite model projections.

Lots of research needs to be done. I don't think we will know the answer anytime soon.
it will give everyone something to look into over the winter for preps for next years season
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 368. Ameister12:
Francisco's new eye is starting to clear out.



Francisco looks very much like Wilma did during its eyewall replacement cycle.
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LMAO.This is no longer a 30mph storm...
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Quoting 364. LargoFl:
yes must really be nice at night up there..40's are great sleeping weather for me,i'd have the window open lol.


I'll have my winds open as well!

Its not that nice though yet, we have to wait until the frontal passage in a few days, outside of frontal passages, we are only a degree or 2 cooler than you guys.
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Quoting 360. FLWaterFront:
As I have pointed out before, it CAN get significantly colder in the Tampa Bay area than what has been seen for the most part over the past two decades. Only the winter of 2009-10 was representative of the kind of winters that happened frequently around here during the period from roughly the late 1950s through the mid 1980s.

As for the current 7 day temperature forecast for the Tampa Bay area, don't be surprised if those forecast temps go down a few degrees, as we get closer to the passage of this upcoming cold front. Before fronts go through this area, in this day and age at least, the forecast is usually a bit on the conservative side when the frontal passage is still a few days out.

I'm expecting middle 50s for lows in most of the Tampa Bay area toward the end of this week, with mid 70s for the high temps. In the colder areas of the Nature Coast the lows by Friday and Saturday will probably be in the low 40s or thereabouts.


I agree, it can get surprising cold in Central Florida during the winter and history supports this with many nights recorded in the Tampa Bay area in the 20's and even all time cold in the upper teens and single digits in the nature coast.

I also agree that numbers will come down a bit, forecasts with fronts are conservative simply because it is so far south that the models can flip forecasts suddenly and back of the strength of the cooling so forecasters tend to go conservative until there is solid long term agreement.
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Quoting 376. Tropicsweatherpr:
18z Best Track for Raymond up to 55kts.

EP, 17, 2013102018, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1019W, 55, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RAYMOND, M,


Intensifying pretty quickly
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
18z Best Track for Raymond up to 55kts.

EP, 17, 2013102018, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1019W, 55, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RAYMOND, M,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
a eye is starting too show




Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
TXPZ25 KNES 201828
TCSENP

A. 17E (RAYMOND)

B. 20/1745Z

C. 15.1N

D. 101.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT

H. REMARKS...RAYMOND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH LLCC FIRMLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN DENSE OVERCAST WITH SPIRAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
COMPLETELY AROUND. 10 TENTHS BANDING GIVES DT=3.5. MET=3.0 BASED ON 24
HR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND. PT=3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Washi we could get are first snow flurries on Wed due to Lake Effect snow from Michigan that can sometimes make it all the way to Baltimore/Washington DC when the winds are strong.
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20/1745 UTC 15.1N 101.9W T3.5/3.5 RAYMOND -- East Pacific
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Gearsts:
This didn't help the atlantic and i believe it contributed to august cape-verde season been nonexistent.

Look what it did from august 1 towards the end of the month.

Vertical instability has been below average for the entire hurricane season, even down to the ITCZ. I don't think there's any doubt that this lack of vertical instability has contributed to the lack of storms - the question is why did this happen? There's some factor affecting vertical instability that we don't seem to understand, since almost all the pros agreed it would increase come August...then September....and now we're in late October and vertical instability is still mostly below average. I don't have an answer, but tropical specialists are going to have a busy off-season trying to figure this one out.
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Quoting 365. LargoFl:
raymond..............
An eye is appearing.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
the CMC has changed it tune and falls in line with the 00z Euro..another coastal storm for the east coast originating from the GOM

NWS, Wilmington, NC

ON TUE ANOTHER WAVE WILL EMERGE FROM THE NORTHEAST GOMEX. THIS WAVE
WILL HAVE MORE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT ALONG WITH BETTER
DIVERGENCE ALOFT...A 120 KT + JET AT 200 MB SETS UP...AND SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. WHILE IT IS A GIVEN THAT THIS WAVE
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH IT THE FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS
HOW MUCH AFFECTS THE CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAM HAVE ALL
BEEN SHOWING THE SAME TREND...KEEPING THE WAVE FARTHER OFF THE
COAST. THE 00Z VERSIONS CONTINUE THE TREND AND NOW MUCH OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE IS BARELY SHOWING LOW CHC POP FOR THE AREA. ON THE OTHER
HAND THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND CONTINUING TUE NIGHT. NEITHER SOLUTION HAS
SOMETHING SIGNIFICANT TO HANG A HAT ON. IN ONE RESPECT THE DRIER
SOLUTION MAKES SENSE AS THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING GULF COAST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING...SOMETHING THAT ALWAYS DECREASES RAINFALL IN
THE CAROLINAS. ON THE OTHER HAND THE ECMWF HAS BEEN STEADY WITH ITS
SOLUTION AND HAS FOR THE MOST PART BEEN MORE RELIABLE. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO PRECIP
FORECAST TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

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Francisco's new eye is starting to clear out.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
we must remember the stronger raymond becomes the more likely he gets pulled into mexico eastward,now a few models have him a strong cat-1 later on..and one or more move him to a cat-2..so we watch him closely this coming week huh..

All I can say is, for those who may be tourists in Acapulco right now, is to get out as soon as possible. Even though the models show Raymond doing a 180 and turning westward, the steering currents aren't strong, and Raymond could come very close to or make landfall near Acapulco. Acapulco is barely under the control of civil authorities in the best of times. The police are renowned for their corruption, and will take your money for any alleged "crime". When there's a disaster, they just evaporate. The international airport is located in one of the lowest areas of Acapulco and regularly floods from even weak tropical storms. As we saw with Hurricane Manuel, it floods badly enough from hurricane rains to be closed for many days. Even if it costs you more money, change your ticket and leave now. You are risking your life and days and nights of discomfort and fear by staying.

With Manuel, many tourists had to wait for Mexican Air Force transports to take them to airbases located away from Acapulco so they could get flights home. If you've never ridden as a passenger in a C-130, particularly a Mexican Air Force C-130, it's an experience you'd rather avoid. In Acapulco itself, looting and robbery of tourists was rampant, and it was only the arrival of Mexican Marines, the only really effective Mexican military force, that finally restored some semblance of order.

You have been warned. Stay at your own risk but, if Raymond becomes a hurricane and hits Acapulco, it will be much worse than you can imagine.
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BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND AT 14.9N 101.8W MOVING NW AT 6 KT WITH
CENTRAL PRES 1000 MB. WINDS 45 GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER...
EXCEPT 60 NM E QUADRANT. CONDITIONS AT THE LOWER AND UPPER
LEVELS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAYMOND TO STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE
FORCE MON HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND...WHICH COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES...POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST
/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
raymond..............
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 335. Jedkins01:


I feel sorry for you guys, up here at school in Tallahassee highs are expected to drop into the low 70's with nights in 40's for several days next week starting on Wednesday and lasting through the weekend!

I prefer living at home in Tampa Bay during the summer because of the exciting sea breeze rainy season pattern. But I prefer Tallahassee in the cool season because we are far enough north to experience more potent effects of fronts like more significant cool downs but not far enough north to have uncomfortably cold weather.
yes must really be nice at night up there..40's are great sleeping weather for me,i'd have the window open lol.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
This didn't help the atlantic and i believe it contributed to august cape-verde season been nonexistent.

Look what it did from august 1 towards the end of the month.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 358. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I know there are other factors as to why we got the coming winter to figure it out

A lot of meteorologists have attributed a warm subtropical Atlantic to the bust. I guess it's possible but years in the past had the same feature with no issues in terms of activity or strength. Others have attributed a switch to the negative AMO but monthly indices have been even higher than last year. For whatever reason, the MJO has vanished several times upon entering the Atlantic this year despite model projections.

Lots of research needs to be done. I don't think we will know the answer anytime soon.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
1100 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...RAYMOND MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 101.8W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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Quoting 335. Jedkins01:


I feel sorry for you guys, up here at school in Tallahassee highs are expected to drop into the low 70's with nights in 40's for several days next week starting on Wednesday and lasting through the weekend!

I prefer living at home in Tampa Bay during the summer because of the exciting sea breeze rainy season pattern. But I prefer Tallahassee in the cool season because we are far enough north to experience more potent effects of fronts like more significant cool downs but not far enough north to have uncomfortably cold weather.
As I have pointed out before, it CAN get significantly colder in the Tampa Bay area than what has been seen for the most part over the past two decades. Only the winter of 2009-10 was representative of the kind of winters that happened frequently around here during the period from roughly the late 1950s through the mid 1980s.

As for the current 7 day temperature forecast for the Tampa Bay area, don't be surprised if those forecast temps go down a few degrees, as we get closer to the passage of this upcoming cold front. Before fronts go through this area, in this day and age at least, the forecast is usually a bit on the conservative side when the frontal passage is still a few days out.

I'm expecting middle 50s for lows in most of the Tampa Bay area toward the end of this week, with mid 70s for the high temps. In the colder areas of the Nature Coast the lows by Friday and Saturday will probably be in the low 40s or thereabouts.
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Quoting 357. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The August 1 SAL outbreak certainly was huge (debateably the biggest observed, at least according to Lee (24hourprof)) but that outbreak was fairly short-lived. Despite little development, we saw many robust tropical waves leave the coast which helped get rid of the SAL. There was very little by the time September rolled around and yet we saw no hurricanes...besides Humberto.
I know there are other factors as to why we got the coming winter to figure it out
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 352. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
true but the one we did get at the end of july/aug helped to kill it that's for sure

The August 1 SAL outbreak certainly was huge (debateably the biggest observed, at least according to Lee (24hourprof)) but that outbreak was fairly short-lived. Despite little development, we saw many robust tropical waves leave the coast which helped get rid of the SAL. There was very little by the time September rolled around and yet we saw no hurricanes...besides Humberto.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 351. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There were very few Saharan Air Layer outbreaks this season. Nowhere near the level of 2006.


I think in general, people are too quick to come up with generalized cause and effect explanations for complex atmospheric phenomenon that are just not true. I've analyzed this hurricane season, and in my opinion, its down right strange as to how it turned out the way it has. I think there needs to be a significant, deep research effort to figure out the real cause.


Its smarter to say "I don't know" which is more likely to push us to find the real truth if we actually really want to learn, than it is to come up with general explanations for things in the age of information where we feel the need to explain everything immediately.
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Quoting 351. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There were very few Saharan Air Layer outbreaks this season. Nowhere near the level of 2006.


old image

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Francisco is a decent-sized typhoon based on an ASCAT pass from 12z this morning.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 347. GTstormChaserCaleb:


FANTASY LAND!
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Quoting 351. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There were very few Saharan Air Layer outbreaks this season. Nowhere near the level of 2006.
true but the one we did get at the end of july/aug helped to kill it that's for sure
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 346. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I have a feeling that the SAL is more damaging to a season's total numbers, strength of storms, and ACE. The Atlantic Basin is the only basin that has to deal with that. Also, the article on AGW I just posted suggesting more extreme droughts and flooding does carry some weight. Think about the Tropical Systems we have had here recently, most of them like Sandy, Isaac, Debby, and Lee brought serious inland flooding with them. Now that is not all, just this past year parts of Colorado and parts of Toronto saw historic flooding that washed away roads and left people stranded in their vehicles. Then you have an ongoing drought in Texas which has been alleviated somewhat by recent rainfall from the remnants of tropical systems in the Pacific and cold fronts and you have drought conditions in Brazil. So is there a correlation between strong SAL outbreaks and extreme weather events over land that are non-tropically related? Also, is this years episodes of SAL outbreak stronger than 2006?




There were very few Saharan Air Layer outbreaks this season. Nowhere near the level of 2006.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 337. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Global warming will increase intensity of El Nino, scientists say



How the impact of El Nino is felt on sea height across the world

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurs in the Pacific Ocean but plays an important part in the world's climate system.

Researchers have until now been unsure as to how rising temperatures would affect ENSO in the future.

But this new study suggests that droughts and floods driven by ENSO will be more intense.

This study finds that both wet and dry anomalies will be greater in future El Nino years%u201D


The El Nino part of the equation sees a warming of the eastern and tropical Pacific, while its cooler sister, La Nina, makes things chillier in these same regions.

Impacts across the world
Like water in a bathtub, the warmer or cooler waters slosh back and forth across the Pacific Ocean. They are responsible for rainfall patterns across Australia and the equatorial region, but their effects are also felt much further away.

During the Northern Hemisphere winter, for example, you can get more intense rainfall over the southern part of the US in a warmer El Nino phase.

For years, scientists have been concerned about how this sensitive weather system might be changed by rising temperatures from global warming.



This flooding in California in the 1980s was put down to El Nino impacts
Now, in this new paper, published in the journal Nature, researchers give their most "robust" projections yet.

Using the latest generation of climate models, they found a consistent projection for the future of ENSO.

According to the lead author, Dr Scott Power from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, global warming interferes with the way El Nino temperature patterns affect rainfall.

"This interference causes an intensification of El Nino-driven drying in the western Pacific and rainfall increases in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific," he said.

Models in agreement
According to Dr Wenju Cai, a scientist at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), who was not involved with the study, the paper is "significant".

"Up until now, there has been a lack of agreement among computer models as to how ENSO will change in the future," he explained.

"This paper is significant in that there is stronger agreement among different climate models in predicting the future impact.

"This study finds that both wet and dry anomalies will be greater in future El Nino years. This means that ENSO-induced droughts and floods will be more intense in the future."

Link


I have my doubts in how well we can currently predict how climate change will actually effect such patterns in the future given there simply hasn't been much time passage to test computer predictions of how GW impacts weather patterns and the like.

Speaking of La Nina and El Nino, I've noticed La Nina has really dominated overall during the past several years. Although I'm not relating this observation to climate change or anything, I just think its interesting and odd.

I hope we do see the return of El Nino though, it means cooler weather in Florida and a major increase in rainfall and thunderstorms, kind of like a second wet season.
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Quoting 346. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I have a feeling that the SAL is more damaging to a season's total numbers, strength of storms, and ACE. Tha Atlantic Basin is the only basin that has to deal with that. Also, the article on AGW I just posted suggesting more extreme droughts and flooding does carry some weight. Think about the Tropical Systems we have had here recently, most of them like Sandy, Isaac, Debby, and Lee brought serious inland flooding with them. Now that is not all, just this past year parts of Colorado and parts of Toronto saw historic flooding that washed away roads and left people stranded in their vehicles. Then you have an ongoing drought in Texas which has been alleviated somewhat by recent rainfall from the remnants of tropical systems in the Pacific and cold fronts and you have drought conditions in Brazil. So is there a correlation between strong SAL outbreaks and extreme weather events over land that are non-tropically related? Also, is that this years episodes of SAL outbreak stronger than 2006?





everything is connected its one big circle

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather