Category 3 Raymond Drenching Acapulco; TD 13 Forms; Extreme Air Pollution in China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:22 PM GMT on October 21, 2013

Hurricane Raymond roared into life on Sunday just offshore from Acapulco, Mexico, rapidly intensifying from a minimal-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds to a major Category 3 hurricane in just 24 hours. Raymond is the first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2013, making it the first year since 1968 that both the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic had made it into October without a major hurricane. Raymond has brought more than 3" of rain so far to Acapulco, where a Hurricane Watch is posted. As of 8 am EDT, Raymond was drifting slowly northwards at 2 mph toward Mexico, and was centered about 165 miles west-southwest of Acapulco. Raymond is expected to bring heavy rains of up to 8" to the coast, and this is an area where heavy rains are definitely most unwelcome. Hurricane Manuel hit this region of Mexico with extreme torrential rains when it made landfall on September 15, triggering deadly mudslides and flooding that left 169 people dead or missing and caused $4.2 billion in damage. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, this was the second most expensive weather-related disaster in Mexican history, behind the $6 billion in damage (2013 dollars) wrought by Hurricane Wilma in October 2005.

Raymond is in an area with weak steering currents, and is likely to show some erratic movement until Wednesday, when a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in and force the storm westwards, away form the coast. Given Raymond's very slow movement, the storm may weaken later today and on Tuesday, as it stirs up colder water from below. However, there is no evidence of weakening on the latest satellite loops, which show a well-organized hurricane with a prominent eye and impressive-looking eyewall clouds with cold tops that reach high into the atmosphere.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a detailed look at the ocean temperatures and steering flow affecting Raymond.


Figure 1. Aerial view of the landslide triggered by Hurricane Manuel's rains, which killed 43 people in La Pintada, México, on September 19, 2013. (Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty)

TD 13 forms in the Middle Atlantic
Tropical Depression Thirteen has formed from an area of disturbed weather located about 650 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Satellite loops show TD 13 has a moderate area of heavy thunderstorms and solid low-level spin. An ASCAT pass from 1:22 UTC Monday morning showed a closed surface circulation, and top winds of 30 - 40 mph on the storm's east side. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, but is expected to increase to the high range by Tuesday night, giving TD 13 a short window in which to develop. If it does intensify, it will become Tropical Storm Lorenzo. TD 13 will not be a threat to any land areas.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression 13, taken at approximately 12:30 pm EDT October 21, 2013. At the time, TD 13 had top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Francisco headed towards Japan
Category 2 Typhoon Francisco has steadily weakened on Sunday and Monday, after spending just over a day as Earth's third Category 5 storm of 2013 on Saturday. Satellite loops show a large, cloud-filled eye and a decaying eyewall. Since wind shear remains low, the weakening is likely in response to cooler ocean temperatures, since Francisco is now traversing a large cool patch of ocean up to 2°C colder than the surrounding waters, left behind by the churning action of Typhoon Wipha last week. By the time Francisco makes its closest approach to Japan on Thursday and Friday, it will be undergoing transition to an extratropical storm. Francisco's interaction with a cold front over Japan during this process will bring very heavy rains to Japan, and these rains will pose a serious flooding threat, as the soils have not had a chance to dry out much from the record rains that Typhoon Wipha brought last week. The 00Z Monday run of the HWRF model predicted a large swath of 4 - 8 inches of rain for Japan from Francisco. The University of Wisconsin CIMSS Satellite Blog has some impressive images of Francisco from when it was a Super Typhoon.


Figure 3. Infrared satellite image of Super Typhoon Francisco, taken at 15:48 UTC on October 18, 2013. At the time, Francisco was a high-end Category 4 storm with top winds of 155 mph. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS Satellite Blog.

China's 10th-largest city shuts down because of extreme air pollution
Harbin, China, the nation's 10th most populous city with a population of 11 million, has virtually shut down today because of extreme levels of air pollution reaching up to 1,000 micrograms per cubic meter. The safe level recommended by the World Heath Organization (WHO) is just 25 micrograms per cubic meter. The dense pollution was created by stagnant air on a day when the city's heating systems kicked in for the first time this fall. With visibility less than 50 yards, the airport was forced to close, as well as most schools and some roads. Cir.ca has some remarkable images of the event, and here is zoomable map of real-time Chinese air quality.


Figure 4. A woman walks along a road as extreme air pollution engulfs the city on October 21, 2013 in Harbin, China. ChinaFotoPress/Getty Images


Video 1. Extreme air pollution in Harbin, China on October 21, 2013. Thanks go to wunderground member Patrap for alerting me to this video.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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683. BahaHurican
9:32 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Lekima looks almost annular.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
682. Patrap
3:23 PM GMT on October 22, 2013


Typhoon 28W LEKIMA

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2013 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 17:34:57 N Lon : 154:39:35 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 921.5mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.1 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +9.4C Cloud Region Temp : -81.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 107km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT1
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.6 degrees


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
681. CaribBoy
3:21 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
GFS 6Z lol I MISSED THAT LONG RANGE ENTERTAINMENT!!!! XD XD

312H


348H


360HR


372HR


384HR


I WOULD LOOOOOOOOOOVE ANOTHER WRONG WAY STORM (Omar, Lenny, Klaus..)

Here is Hurricane Klaus (5-13Nov 1984)



LOL .. no need to present OMAR and LENNY...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
680. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:21 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
679. Ameister12
3:12 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Lekima is more than likely a category 5 right now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
678. ricderr
3:05 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
s the heat really still going on at Yoboi's blog?+++





stirring the pot or you just don't know how to navigate to his page?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
677. Sfloridacat5
2:54 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
7 day forecast for Fort Myers Fl.
Expected cold front only bringing highs in the low 80s.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
676. FunnelVortex
2:53 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Is the heat really still going on at Yoboi's blog?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
675. Tazmanian
2:48 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
328 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013


GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT THE DRY PATTERN CONTINUES
OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. IF THAT VERIFIES, IT WILL BE THE
FIRST TIME SINCE 1980 THAT DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO DID NOT PICK UP
ANY RAINFALL DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
674. FunnelVortex
2:45 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Quoting 671. Patrap:


Was stationed there a year,Sept 82-83.

They very Typhoon savvy folks the Okinawan's.


US Military installations on Okinawa.



Any civilians live there?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
673. Sfloridacat5
2:43 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Quoting 667. GTstormChaserCaleb:
When it comes to cold weather damming in FL. it is usually under done. With the way the pattern has been all summer, the Jet has been amplified enough that this forecast from Tampa for cold weather seems reasonable.


Should make a pretty significant difference on temperature based on how far inland and how far north you're located across the state.

Tampa can get very cold in the winter. I remember a day a couple years ago where Tampa struggled to get up in the low 50s for highs with lows in the upper 20s/low 30s.
I was racing at BMP that morning and I about froze my buns off (everything covered in frost until about 9am).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
672. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:41 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 22 2013

...LORENZO A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 52.0W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST. LORENZO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...
BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
671. Patrap
2:40 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Quoting 666. biff4ugo:
Good Morning/Evening.

Fire over Aussie's way made it to NPR news this morning.

Hope folks in Okinawa have things bolted down tight.


Was stationed there a year,Sept 82-83.

They very Typhoon savvy folks the Okinawan's.


US Military installations on Okinawa.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
670. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:38 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Forecast for Daytona Beach:

# Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 56. North wind around 10 mph.
# Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. North northeast wind around 10 mph.
# Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming north northwest after midnight.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
669. FunnelVortex
2:38 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Possibly...? Nah...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
668. Sfloridacat5
2:37 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Lake Effect Snow is a cool phenomenon. You can get 20" of snow at one place and 15 miles away the sun is out with no snow.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
667. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:35 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Quoting 656. StormTrackerScott:


You won't need them anytime soon as temps on the eastern side of FL are going to struggle just to get below 70 as the wind will veer over to the ENE shortly after the front passes keeping temps on the east side of FL mild due to ocean temps in the 80's.
When it comes to cold weather damming in FL. it is usually under done. With the way the pattern has been all summer, the Jet has been amplified enough that this forecast from Tampa for cold weather seems reasonable.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
666. biff4ugo
2:32 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Good Morning/Evening.

Fire over Aussie's way made it to NPR news this morning.

Hope folks in Okinawa have things bolted down tight.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
665. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:31 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Quoting 658. Patrap:
Raymond, RGB to Day Viz loop

I wonder if the models will verify and Raymond starts moving back west, it's almost a similar scenario here with Elena where the front outran the system.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
664. Tazmanian
2:31 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
445 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013

NYZ008-221645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0010.131024T0500Z-131025T0300Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
445 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT AND MAINLY OVER THE TUG HILL AND POSSIBLY THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

* TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 5 TO 9 INCHES IN
THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

* IMPACTS...SNOW MAY PRODUCE DIFFICULT TRAVEL ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SOME MINOR TREE DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO EXACT TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE...WHICH
WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
SHOULD BE MADE BY RESIDENTS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS FOR AN EARLY
SEASON SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL AND
POSSIBLY THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY RESULT IN MINOR TREE DAMAGE
AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
663. Sfloridacat5
2:30 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Quoting 642. LargoFl:
Florida..Are you Ready!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


I'm ready.
Supposed to be low 80s (highs) and low 60s (lows) for my area (Fort Myers).
That is just about perfect weather. The humidity will also be low. You just can't beat it.

About 15 years ago, I moved to Ft Myers Fl at the end of Feb. For 33 days in a row the weather was beautiful(highs in the 70s lows in the 50s and sunny). I couldn't believe it. I had never lived anywhere where you could have 30 days in a row with perfect weather.

But on the other hand, you can have 30 days in a row with rain in the summer.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
662. fmbill
2:29 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Quoting 657. StormTrackerScott:


Not here. In The Villages over to Ocala maybe but not in orlando.



NWS Forecast - OIA
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
661. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:29 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
This current MJO wave propagation is probably the biggest one we have had all season.

Started in the Indian Ocean yielded Phailin and the WPAC and yielded Nari, Wipha, Francisco, and Lekima and is now making its way to the EPAC where currently we have Raymond and in the Atlantic where we have Lorenzo.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
660. Patrap
2:28 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Fransisco, Rainbow Loop

Okinawa is the Island to the Northwest of it.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
659. StormTrackerScott
2:27 PM GMT on October 22, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013

WED-FRI...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY
ON WED. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF/END FROM N-S DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE TREASURE
COAST/LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION FROM SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ON WED. RESPECTABLE...ALBEIT MODIFIED...COOL AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND FROPA AS WINDS VEER PRETTY QUICKLY FROM NORTHERLY
WED NIGHT TO NE/ONSHORE BY THU AFTERNOON...AS THEY WEAKEN A TAD.
REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE MS VALLEY EAST AND SEWD INTO
THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND SERN CONUS. MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L80S WITH
MINS RANGING FROM THE U50S/L60S NORTH OF I-4 TO M-U60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
658. Patrap
2:27 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Raymond, RGB to Day Viz loop

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
657. StormTrackerScott
2:26 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Quoting 654. fmbill:


You'll have to excuse us Florida natives, Scott. We get excited this time of year when the humidity drops below 90%.

Looking at NWS Melbourne, it seems to be in-line with Tampa's forecast. 50's are on their way! Woo hoo!


Not here. In The Villages over to Ocala maybe but not in orlando.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
656. StormTrackerScott
2:25 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Quoting 651. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Glad I went home for the weekend to get some winter clothes.


You won't need them anytime soon as temps on the eastern side of FL are going to struggle just to get below 70 as the wind will veer over to the ENE shortly after the front passes keeping temps on the east side of FL mild due to ocean temps in the 80's.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
655. Patrap
2:25 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Lekima

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
654. fmbill
2:25 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Quoting 644. StormTrackerScott:


Ready for what temps we've already seen 60 to 65 at night with 83 to 85 during the day. Temps won't be as cool as the front won't clear the state. NWS in Tampa is very aggressive with the temps I see compared to everyone else.



You'll have to excuse us Florida natives, Scott. We get excited this time of year when the humidity drops below 90%.

Looking at NWS Melbourne, it seems to be in-line with Tampa's forecast. 50's are on their way! Woo hoo!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
653. Patrap
2:23 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Happy Tuesday to wunderland'

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
652. FunnelVortex
2:23 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Is anyone else having problems accessing the weather models on Weather.Gov today?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
651. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:22 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Quoting 642. LargoFl:
Florida..Are you Ready!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Glad I went home for the weekend to get some winter clothes.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
650. FunnelVortex
2:22 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Quoting 628. SFLWeatherman:
Since October 1st for the Western Pacific!!


To be fair, Phalin was not the WPAC, it was the Indian.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
649. StormTrackerScott
2:21 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
648. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:21 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Not bad for a system in the North Central Atlantic. It seems the systems hate developing in the MDR this year. LOL

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
647. sebastianflorida
2:20 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Quoting 582. GatorWX:
I'd take one for the team; or maybe not.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
646. StormTrackerScott
2:19 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Some hefty weather on the way to FL this afternoon.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
645. Tazmanian
2:19 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Quoting 633. Halcyon19:
Yes Lorenzo!! Pull a Michael! :D



not even close
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
644. StormTrackerScott
2:13 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Quoting 642. LargoFl:
Florida..Are you Ready!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Ready for what temps we've already seen 60 to 65 at night with 83 to 85 during the day. Temps won't be as cool as the front won't clear the state. NWS in Tampa is very aggressive with the temps I see compared to everyone else.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
643. LargoFl
2:07 PM GMT on October 22, 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

...DENSE FOG IMPACT...
LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO A
MILE OR LESS IN A FEW SPOTS...AND MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO SLOW
DOWN AND USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS WHEN ENCOUNTERING FOG DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DAY WEARS
ON. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 35 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY WEATHER WILL STAY WITH US
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
642. LargoFl
2:06 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Florida..Are you Ready!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
641. LargoFl
2:03 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
640. CaribBoy
2:02 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Hazy ://// I HATE THE WEATHER THAT FOLLOWS A WAVE... REALLY DEPRESSING TO SEE THAT HAZE.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
639. LargoFl
2:01 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
some models have raymond indeed heading west but then coming back east.....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
638. CaribBoy
2:01 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Extremely BORING agin ://////

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST TUE OCT 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW NORTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NOW MOVING
WEST NEAR 20N. IT WILL STILL BE IN POSITION TO HELP GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MONA PASSAGE TODAY WHILE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
BE PRIMARY REASON FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST PR
IN AFTERNOON. BUT DRY AIR IN THE 900-600 MB LAYER...AS SHOWN IN
THE 22Z TFFR SOUNDING...QUICKLY MOVING WEST IS CLEARLY OVERTAKING
THE EXISTING SHOWERS. IT FIRST WIPED OUT THOSE IN THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN EARLIER TONIGHT AND IS NOW CAUSING THEM TO DIMINISH ON
THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AROUND PR. THE DRY AIR AND LESS
HIGHER CLOUDS IS REASON ENOUGH TO FORECAST SUFFICIENT HEATING OVER
WEST PR THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDER. PRECIPITABLE
WATER DOWN TO 1.6 INCHES...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...AND DECENT STEERING
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE FLOODING THREAT TO A MINIMUM TODAY.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE CAUSING SOME CONVECTION EAST OF TRINIDAD WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST BUT WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS WHEN IT
PASSES ON WED. AN EXPECTED TIGHT LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WILL
BE JUST SOUTH OF PR SO MOST ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
BE IN THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ANOTHER WAVE TO PASS OVER THE
ISLANDS LATE THU BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. SO EXPECT TROPICAL
WAVES THIS WEEK TO BE LARGELY INCONSEQUENTIAL WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND STEERING FLOW TO BE THE DOMINANT FACTOR DETERMINING CONVECTION.
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE OF NOTE HAS JUST LEFT AFRICAN COAST WHILE GFS
PUSHES IT JUST SOUTH OF PR/USVI EARLY MON WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
FOLLOWING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
637. LargoFl
1:59 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
636. LargoFl
1:58 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
WELL glad to see local met changed the 7-day for tampa bay area..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
635. CaribBoy
1:53 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
I see the Atlantic is not bored with those high latitude trashes.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
634. GeoffreyWPB
1:53 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Lorenzo...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
633. Halcyon19
1:50 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Yes Lorenzo!! Pull a Michael! :D
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Category 6™

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather