Powerful St. Jude's Day Storm Pounding France and the UK

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 AM GMT on October 28, 2013

A mighty Atlantic gale, called the 2013 St. Jude's Day storm by the UK Met Office, and "Christian" by the Free University of Berlin, is battering Western Europe with hurricane-strength wind gusts, waves up to 25 feet high, and driving rains. As of 2 am local time, the peak wind gust from the storm in the UK according to a tweet from the UK Met Office (@metoffice) was 92 mph, at the Isle of Wight in the English Channel. Powerful winds have also swept the north coast of France; winds in Brest, France hit 41 mph, gusting to 67 mph at 2 am local time Monday, and gusted as high as 65 mph at Caen. With the trees still in leaf, winds this strong have the potential to cause heavy tree damage and large scale power outages. The storm is moving quickly, and sustained winds fo 35 - 45 mph will arrive along the coast of the Netherlands by 6 am local time Monday, by noon in Denmark, near 6 pm in Southern Sweden, and near midnight Monday night in Estonia and Southern Finland. You can check out the current winds in Southern Britain and Northern France using our wundermap zoomed into the region with the weather station layer turned on.


Figure 1. Waves crash against the sea barriers in Porthcawl, South Wales, on October 27, 2013, ahead of the arrival of the St. Jude's Day storm. Image credit: GEOFF CADDICK/AFP/Getty Images.

Last majorly destructive extratropical storm in Western Europe: 2011
October 28 is St. Jude's feast day, in honor of the Catholic saint who was one of Jesus' twelve apostles and is often appealed to as the patron saint of lost causes. His namesake storm has the potential to be one of the more destructive extratropical storms to hit Western Europe in the past decade, judging by a short history of these storms written by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt back in 2011. The most recent storm of note to hit the region was Winter Storm Joachim of December 15 - 17, 2011, which has a central pressure of 964 mb and brought a peak wind gust of 131 mph to Auvergne, France. Damage was estimated at $325 million by Aon Benfield. Also in that year, ex-Hurricane Katia hit northern Scotland on September 12 when the trees were in full leaf, causing tree damage that was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain, with a price tag of $158 million, according to Aon Benfield. Wind gusts experienced in Britain included 86 mph at Glen Ogle, Scotland, 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.


Figure 2. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.

I'll have a new post by Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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893. StormTrackerScott
9:07 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
FIM 8

288hrs
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
892. Skyepony (Mod)
7:54 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 890. barbamz:


Skye, this has happened in August. Look here:
Tornado rips up church campsite, injures 27
Published: 20 Aug 2013 09:32 GMT+02:00

That's why it looked so familiar. I was running out & didn't double check..


sar..lol..there ya go. That site finally made me wrong:)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
891. Dakster
6:38 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 776. SSideBrac:


I have spent many a winter month (usually in Feb), trying to mount exercise air operations at a location called Bardufoss close to Tromso.

Cold to me personally was when the moisture (snot?) in your noise froze and crackled, every drop of moisture in every exhalation froze on your mouth cover.

Cold to me operationally was when rubber "o rings" in hydraulic systems hardened to such an extent that they failed - when undercarriage tires would freeze to the Ice unless airctaft6 were towed into heated Aircraft Shelters/Rock hanger Pens within 3 minutes.

Mentally - IMHO - lack of colour in the landscape used to get me down - even our Jets were painted like Zebras - yet Tromso is a thriving, fun packed city (if you can get past how expensive it is and the smell of fish)

They used to say in Tromso that there were 2 main things to do ( and I mean NO disrespect to nay Norwegians)- you could "Indulge in close intimate human activities [heavily censored to avoid being banned - but there is a word beginning with "f" and ending with "ing" that describes this activity] or you could fish - but in the winter your could not fish"

Joking asides, it actually truly made me realize the "hell on earth" that sailors and merchant seamen (including my Grandfather) underwent, with very basic/almost no existent artic kit, during WW II Artic Convoys to resupply Russia.

Whilst not for me - I have a huge respect for those that actually choose to live above the Artic Circle wherever it may be - I will stick with my current location in the Cayman Islands!!


Or so cold steel shatters....

I love it when they throw a bowl of water or a cup of coffee in the air and it freezes before it hits the ground.

Not even sure if that close quarters conduct not in an inside heated place would be all that pleasant.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
890. barbamz
2:35 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 884. Skyepony:
Tornado in Germany on Tuesday, 29 October, 2013 at 09:34 (09:34 AM) UTC.
Description
A tornado tore through a campsite belonging to a church in southern German on Monday afternoon, injuring 27 people, including 16 children aged between 10 and 13 years old. Triggered by unusually humid weather, the tornado hit the campsite in the Aalen area in the state of Baden-Württemberg. It ripped up two large tents belonging to a local diocese, and damaged eight others. Roofs came off five buildings and trees were uprooted. There were around 100 children and adults at the campsite, 27 of whom were injured badly enough to need medical help. One 10-year-old girl had such bad back injuries that she was taken to a Stuttgart hospital by air ambulance. Five others, including three supervising adults, also sustained more serious injuries �" mostly broken arms. The tornado caused an estimated €200,000 of damage to the site. Those who were not physically injured were looked after in a local sports hall, where they were treated for shock.


Skye, this has happened in August. Look here:
Tornado rips up church campsite, injures 27
Published: 20 Aug 2013 09:32 GMT+02:00
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
889. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:30 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 881. Torito:
I wonder when Dr.Masters will post a new blog...

It has been 1 and a half days now.

He just did. :P
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
888. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:28 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
887. weathermanwannabe
2:27 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Here is today's relative position of the 300mb jet stream over Conus; something to keep in mind over the next few days as the trof passes trough the Central Plains.  Lots of potential there for strong straight line winds and possible tornado watches................The shot of warm air across the Gulf States over the next few days will add to the atmospheric instability as well:


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
886. Skyepony (Mod)
2:26 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Power Outage in Russia [Asia] on Tuesday, 29 October, 2013 at 11:46 (11:46 AM) UTC.
Description
Gale-force winds have disrupted power supplies to five districts of the Leningrad region, the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry's local branch said in a press release. "As of noon, a power outage was reported in the Kingisepp, Slantsy, Lomonosov, Luzhki and Volosovo districts - 217 electrical substations and 238 localities with a population of over 13,000 people," it said. Power supplies were also disrupted to 13 towns and villages in the Olonets district of Karelia, the ministry's branch for the republic said. As many as 1,500 people in the Novgorod region were affected by a power blackout caused by the St. Jude's storm on Tuesday morning. The St. Jude's storm, which first hit the southern UK, swept through Russia's northwestern regions on Tuesday. Neva water levels 75 cm up due to St. Jude's storm, dam gates closed. The water level in the Neva River is 75 centimeters higher than usual due to the approach of St. Jude's storm. The ship and water gates of the dam in the Gulf of Finland were closed, and the water level rose by 75 centimeters in the Mining Institute hydro-post area as of 11 a.m., the city emergency situations department said on Tuesday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
885. JTDailyUpdate
2:22 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 881. Torito:
I wonder when Dr.Masters will post a new blog...

It has been 1 and a half days now.



Besides the European Storm and the one year anniversary of Sandy, not much to talk about weather wise
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
884. Skyepony (Mod)
2:21 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Tornado in Germany on Tuesday, 29 October, 2013 at 09:34 (09:34 AM) UTC.
Description
A tornado tore through a campsite belonging to a church in southern German on Monday afternoon, injuring 27 people, including 16 children aged between 10 and 13 years old. Triggered by unusually humid weather, the tornado hit the campsite in the Aalen area in the state of Baden-Württemberg. It ripped up two large tents belonging to a local diocese, and damaged eight others. Roofs came off five buildings and trees were uprooted. There were around 100 children and adults at the campsite, 27 of whom were injured badly enough to need medical help. One 10-year-old girl had such bad back injuries that she was taken to a Stuttgart hospital by air ambulance. Five others, including three supervising adults, also sustained more serious injuries �" mostly broken arms. The tornado caused an estimated €200,000 of damage to the site. Those who were not physically injured were looked after in a local sports hall, where they were treated for shock.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
883. Tazmanian
2:18 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 881. Torito:
I wonder when Dr.Masters will post a new blog...

It has been 1 and a half days now.




when he is ready too do so
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
882. barbamz
2:16 PM GMT on October 29, 2013

Crazy folks, lol. Yesterday in Eckwarderhoerne (near Bremerhaven, I think). Gales up to 140 km/h, caption says.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
881. Torito
2:15 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
I wonder when Dr.Masters will post a new blog...

It has been 1 and a half days now.

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880. Torito
2:13 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
I never noticed that wobble on Raymonds track till now.

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879. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:10 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
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878. Torito
2:09 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
GFS 240 hours. Hello, typhoon.

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877. Patrap
2:08 PM GMT on October 29, 2013



FALL SEVERE WEATHER TEST WARNING

...FALL SEVERE WEATHER SEASON APPROACHING... ...REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES... THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS INCREASES DURING LATE OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER


A BATTERY OPERATED NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS AN EXCELLENT MEANS TO RECEIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WARNINGS. WEATHER RADIOS CAN BE PROGRAMMED TO AUTOMATICALLY ALERT IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR PARISH OR COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND 915AM...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL ISSUE A TEST TORNADO WARNING MESSAGE ON NOAA WEATHER RADIO. THE TEST WARNING WILL ONLY BE TRANSMITTED AS A TEST MESSAGE AND BE DISPLAYED ON YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AS A TEST MESSAGE
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876. Torito
2:07 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
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875. wunderkidcayman
2:04 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Surface trof forms near Barbados trop wave moves further in Caribbean 24hrs


Surface trof moves into Caribbean and continues Westward 48hrs and 72hrs


Surface trof turns into low and continues to develop there after day 5


This is what NOAA sees with this tropical system that models are showing
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
874. Torito
2:04 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Might as well see if the bots in Ricky roods blog are here right now.....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
873. Patrap
2:04 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
426 am CDT Tuesday Oct 29 2013



Heading into tomorrow and tomorrow night...the middle to upper level
ridge axis will begin to slide to the east as very strong upper
level trough and vorticity maxima lifts out of the southern
rockies. As the trough moves into the plains states...strong
surface based cyclogenesis will take place during the day
tomorrow over the Central Plains. A strong low level jet will
develop over the Southern Plains and arklatex by tomorrow
night in response to this deepening system. On the backside of the
low...a strong cold front will develop over the central rockies
and High Plains. In our region...increased onshore flow can be
expected...which will pump in deeper moisture. However...enough
capping will linger through tomorrow night to inhibit
convection...and will keep a dry forecast in place through
tomorrow night. Temperatures will be significantly warmer tomorrow
night due to the surge of low level moisture into the region...with
overnight lows only cooling into the upper 60s and lower 70s.



Conditions will deteriorate rapidly on Thursday...as the trough
continues to lift into the Midwest...and the strong cold front
slides into the lower Mississippi Valley by Thursday afternoon and
evening. Have went with likely probability of precipitation for northwest zones Thursday
afternoon as the front and a potential line of convection move
into the area. This band of convection will then spread eastward
across the forecast area Thursday night. The convection will be
ongoing along the coast by Friday morning. Have went with likely
probability of precipitation for the entire forecast area Thursday night as the front
moves through the area. The front will briefly hang up along the
coast Friday morning...as a second upper level vorticity maxima
and associated trough axis slide through the Southern Plains. This
secondary surge of energy will finally push the front offshore
Friday afternoon.

Concerning the potential for severe thunderstorms...the overall
threat looks to be fairly low even though shear values will be
very favorable for stronger convection and Omega values will be
very high along the frontal boundary. Fortunately...the overall
instability in the atmosphere will be greatly limited as the
entire atmospheric profile becomes moisture loaded and precipitable water values
push above 2 inches. A strong 50 knot low level jet will be
positioned across the area Thursday evening...with 0-3km shear
values exceeding 40 knots. These very high shear values will
produce helicity indices in excess of 400 m2/s2 over much of the
forecast area Thursday evening into Thursday night. However...a
nearly moist adiabatic lapse rate and cape values of 500 j/kg or
less in the middle to upper levels will greatly inhibit the
potential for sustained deep updrafts in any convection...and this
will greatly limit the severe potential. The most favorable region
for any isolated strong to severe convection will be over the far
northern zones of southwest Mississippi where middle-level cooling
will be slightly stronger and lapse rates will be slightly more
favorable. If any severe convection does develop...the main
threats will be isolated tornadoes and strong straight line winds.
Given the high precipitable water values expected Thursday night and the slow
movement of the frontal boundary...locally heavy rainfall will be
possible. Rainfall values of 1 to 3 inches cannot be ruled out
with the heavier convection.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
872. Torito
2:02 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 869. 1900hurricane:

Nor'easters are so named because of the wind that comes out of the northeast on the back side of the storm systems. Your case above would not be a nor'easter (complete opposite, in fact).


Southwester. :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
871. barbamz
2:01 PM GMT on October 29, 2013

Short storm video from Norderney (German island in the Northern Sea).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
870. Torito
2:01 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
It is so quiet here.....






*Cricket... Cricket...*

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
869. 1900hurricane
2:00 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 868. Torito:
navgem 84 hours. Nor'easter?

Looks like one.


Nor'easters are so named because of the wind that comes out of the northeast on the back side of the storm systems. Your case above would not be a nor'easter (complete opposite, in fact).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
868. Torito
1:56 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
navgem 84 hours. Nor'easter?

Looks like one.

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867. Torito
1:53 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
168 hours. hinting at a nor'easter?

I hope it isn't a sandy type hybrid.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
866. Torito
1:50 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
132 hour. TS at 25n 65w



210 hour. TD at 20n 80w, hurricane at 15n 105w



Also a 939MB LOW at 25W 65N!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
865. Torito
1:45 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
3 potential tropical systems at 168 hours...



1. 15n 100w
2. 15n 75w
3. 35n 55w
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
864. cruzanrum
1:44 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 847. Xyrus2000:


No, the absence does not imply anything climatologically one way or the other. If this keeps happening more frequently over the coming years then it would be possible to build a stronger case, but a single event does not provide enough evidence in and of itself to indicate anything. That's weather, not climate.


Thanks, I would agree that it is probably more a weather event than some indicator of climate change. It was brought up, where I work, if the failure of the Cape Verde train to run this year might mean we were reaching some tipping point. Still, I don't consider the statement from a person who has lived 55 years in the islands observing storms wondering about this changes as just ignorance of the difference between weather and climate. It was just an observance on her part. I think you comment indicates what I think -- we will just have to see what happens next.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
863. GeoffreyWPB
1:43 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
862. ecomarine
1:39 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
The tropical wave at 15N 70W is looking pretty scary....

Turning clouds north of Puerto Rico...

Could this be the storm?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
861. cRRKampen
1:38 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 856. barbamz:
Storm death toll rises across northern Europe
Associated Press in Copenhagen, theguardian.com, Tuesday 29 October 2013 11.07 GMT
One of the worst storms to hit northern and western Europe in recent years claims the lives of at least 15 people

The Europe storm death toll has risen to 15 after Danish police said a driver was killed when he crashed into a tree knocked down by violent gusts.

Monday's storm was one of the worst in years in northern and western Europe.

Authorities said on Tuesday that dozens of people had been injured in Denmark as gusts of wind up to 120mph (194km/h) swept across the country. Train passengers spent the night in a sports facility because fallen trees had blocked tracks. The storm left a trail of uprooted trees, damaged buildings and collapsed scaffoldings across the country.

There were six deaths in Germany, five in Britain, two in Denmark and one in France and the Netherlands.

Tens of thousands of people were without power on Tuesday in Britain, Sweden, Denmark, Estonia and Latvia.


Two fatalities in Holland (Amsterdam a young woman by falling tree, Veenendaal a young man of 24 struck on the head by a branch).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
860. hydrus
1:38 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
This could be a significant event. Especially if the CAPE increases..

Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 am CDT Tuesday Oct 29 2013


Valid 311200z - 011200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the arklatex/lower MS
River Valley to the Ohio River valley...


..arklatex/lower MS River Valley to the Tennessee/Ohio River valleys...
A Low Cape/high shear regime is expected to bring at least an
isolated severe risk to a broad regional extent on Thursday. A
considerable upper trough over the plains early Thursday seems
likely to take on an increasingly negative tilt...especially by
Thursday night as it crosses the Midwest/Ohio River valley. Very
strong south-southwesterly winds in the lowest few km will quickly
transport a seasonally moist airmass north-northeastward ahead of a
cold front...which will accelerate eastward especially Thursday
night across the Tennessee/Ohio River valleys and Midwest. By late
afternoon/early evening Thursday...lower 60s f surface dewpoints may
exist as far north as portions of Illinois/Indiana and Ohio.


While early convection ahead of the cold front will be a
complicating factor across parts of the arklatex and Lower/Middle MS
River Valley...the most favorable /or certain/ combination of modest
instability/strong vertical shear Thursday afternoon into evening
should materialize generally across portions of the arklamiss/Tennessee
Valley...although middle-level lapse rates will be weaker with
south-southwestward extent. Given a very moist low-level airmass and
ample low-level/deep-layer shear...damaging winds and some tornadoes
will be possible with what should be a complex storm Mode including
line-embedded bowing structures/some semi-discrete supercells. In
fact...a strong tornado risk cannot be discounted across parts of
the lower MS valley/Tennessee Valley given the robust magnitude of the
low-level winds /50-65 knots in lowest 1-2 km/...very strong srh...and
the moist boundary layer.


While the exact degree of destabilization is uncertain with
northward extent into the Ohio River valley...low-level
moisture/meager instability may be sufficient for the development of
a fast-moving/accelerating low-topped convective line Thursday
evening/overnight across Tennessee/Ohio River valleys. As such...it appears
that at least isolated damaging wind gusts will nocturnally be
possible...even if there is a relative absence of
lightning-producing convection.


.Guyer.. 10/29/2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
858. georgevandenberghe
1:29 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 649. Pallis:
I'm buying it. Your points are valid.


Heavy (15" over large areas) snows in my memory are Jan 1966, Feb 1979, Feb, 1983, Jan 1987, Nov 1987, March 1993, Jan 1996, Feb 2003, Dec 2009, Feb 2010 (twice in six days). The DC area is frustratingly almost snowless many winters but we also get fairly frequent big dumps.

I have no idea what the winter will bring but statistically it should be snowier than the past three.


Oh Wait!! we still have 33 days of Atlantic TC season left. It ain't over till it's over.

I'm appropriately afraid of thunderstorms, downbursts, tornadoes, tropical cyclones, and lightning. I am not afraid of anything a DC winter
can do to me. Four feet of snow (return period 250 years) is not
enough to crush my roof, I have heat that does not require power and winds here in winter won't cause structural damage. But a TC could flood me out, and drop trees on my roof and anything above an F2 tornado would cause substantial damage to my home.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
856. barbamz
1:25 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Storm death toll rises across northern Europe
Associated Press in Copenhagen, theguardian.com, Tuesday 29 October 2013 11.07 GMT
One of the worst storms to hit northern and western Europe in recent years claims the lives of at least 15 people

The Europe storm death toll has risen to 15 after Danish police said a driver was killed when he crashed into a tree knocked down by violent gusts.

Monday's storm was one of the worst in years in northern and western Europe.

Authorities said on Tuesday that dozens of people had been injured in Denmark as gusts of wind up to 120mph (194km/h) swept across the country. Train passengers spent the night in a sports facility because fallen trees had blocked tracks. The storm left a trail of uprooted trees, damaged buildings and collapsed scaffoldings across the country.

There were six deaths in Germany, five in Britain, two in Denmark and one in France and the Netherlands.

Tens of thousands of people were without power on Tuesday in Britain, Sweden, Denmark, Estonia and Latvia.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
855. rmbjoe1954
1:23 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 853. Llamaluvr:
I am already in my safe room.


I would give the chances of a major storm a low, very low probability. However, with a strong MJO in the offing, I would not rule anything out. It has been one heck of a year.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
854. cRRKampen
1:23 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 843. barbamz:
I've just waited for second-guesses of the handling of severe weather warnings yesterday in Germany because of "Christian". As much as I was able to see, this storm for a change was "underhyped" by weather services and media, and a lot of people were taken by surprise of the strength of the storm.

Here my try to translate a note in a live report about the aftermaths of "Christian" in Hamburg, found in "Hamburger Abendblatt":

Was warning in time ?

13.12h : After severe aftermaths of storm depression "Christian" discussions arose by meteorologists on Tuesday whether there had been enough warnings of the extent of the storm in Hamburg. The German Weather Service (DWD) has pointed out impending dangers two days ahead, said DWD meteorologist Lars Kirchhuebel. 24 hours before "Christian" arrived in Germany, there had been warnings for Northern Germany, but not specifically for Hamburg. There had been a warning on Monday morning of gusts up to 103 kmh and in the afternoon a storm warning of hurricane force winds with more than 104 kmh. At that time in Hamburg-Finkenwerder gusts up to 120 kmh already had been measured.

Meteorologist Dominik Jung on wetter.net says: "The intense low was foreseeable for a few days. At the latest at Monday morning, when damage and wind forces from England and France were known, appropriate severe weather warnings should have been issued in order to warn people and first responders." For Jung it is incomprehensible why a severe weather warning was delayed "until to the middle of the hurricane chaos" in Hamburg.


Little warning on this Jung - he is a climate revisionist and nothing he says should be taken seriously, even where he's right.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
853. Llamaluvr
1:16 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 837. StormWx:


What would you put the odds at for this wave becoming a monster/major hurricane barreling towards the Gulf of Mexico/Florida? Just curious, hope the models do NOT verify as Scott seems to think!
I am already in my safe room.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
852. washingtonian115
1:09 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 834. GeoffreyWPB:
Atlantic Satellite...

That area of thunderstorms near Bermuda look interesting but it probably won't amount to much.
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851. LargoFl
1:07 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
850. LargoFl
1:00 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
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849. Chucktown
12:57 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
The Weather Channel will be rolling out their new suite of graphics either Friday or next Monday. Meh...

Link
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848. LargoFl
12:56 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
I just dont see a storm getting thru this shear.......
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
847. Xyrus2000
12:55 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 827. cruzanrum:
St Croix this morning is getting the heaviest rain this season, which is great. Most of us depend on our cisterns. Does the absence of Cape Verde storms this year possibly mean that currents are changing because of AGW. I write a blog on energy issues in the Caribbean, but the last one was on AGW effects on the Virgin Islands http://vienergycarpool.blogspot.com/
I am working on a paper about how changing to a low carbon society is not near as difficult as the owners of fossil fuel products would like their customers to think.Link


No, the absence does not imply anything climatologically one way or the other. If this keeps happening more frequently over the coming years then it would be possible to build a stronger case, but a single event does not provide enough evidence in and of itself to indicate anything. That's weather, not climate.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
846. Sfloridacat5
12:54 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 840. StormWx:


Thanks, thats what i was thinking too. This year is toast when it comes to any storm in the Gulf. Besides SST's are decreasing quickly and wont support much of anything.





I honestly thought we'd see at least one Tropical Storm down in the Caribbean before the end of the season. The GFS was hinting at a system towards the end of its run (8-10 day range) for weeks but nothing ever materialized. Now the GFS has even dropped that.

But we will need to watch the wave getting ready to move though the Caribbean. There is an outside chance something could spin up. But as of right now, I don't see much coming from it.

But we'll need to keep watching the models to see if things change. Sometimes things can change quickly.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
845. LargoFl
12:51 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 843. barbamz:
I've just waited for second-guesses of the handling of severe weather warnings yesterday in Germany because of "Christian". As much as I was able to see, this storm for a chance was "underhyped" by weather services and media, and a lot of people were taken by surprise of the strength of the storm.

Here my try to translate a note in a live report about the aftermaths of "Christian" in Hamburg, found in "Hamburger Abendblatt":

+ + + Was warning in time ? + + +

13.12h : After severe aftermaths of storm depression "Christian" discussions arose by meteorologists on Tuesday whether there had been enough warnings of the extent of the storm in Hamburg. The German Weather Service (DWD) has pointed out impending dangers two days ahead, said DWD meteorologist Lars Kirchhübel. 24 hours before "Christian" arrived in Germany, there had been warnings for Northern Germany, but not specifically for Hamburg. There had been a warning on Monday morning of gusts up to 103 kmh and in the afternoon a storm warning of hurricane force winds with more than 104 kmh. At that time in Hamburg-Finkenwerder gusts up to 120 kmh already had been measured.

Meteorologist Dominik Jung on wetter.net says: “The intense low was foreseeable for a few days. At the latest at Monday morning, when damage and wind forces from England and France were known, appropriate severe weather warnings should have been issued in order to warn people and first responders." For Jung it is incomprehensible why a severe weather warning was delayed "until to the middle of the hurricane chaos" in Hamburg.

yes i noticed that also yesterday,folks over there were caught by surprise on how strong the winds really turned out to be..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
844. LargoFl
12:49 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
well GEM suggests something mid week..it will have to fight the front.....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
843. barbamz
12:47 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
I've just waited for second-guesses of the handling of severe weather warnings yesterday in Germany because of "Christian". As much as I was able to see, this storm for a change was "underhyped" by weather services and media, and a lot of people were taken by surprise of the strength of the storm.

Here my try to translate a note in a live report about the aftermaths of "Christian" in Hamburg, found in "Hamburger Abendblatt":

Was warning in time ?

13.12h : After severe aftermaths of storm depression "Christian" discussions arose by meteorologists on Tuesday whether there had been enough warnings of the extent of the storm in Hamburg. The German Weather Service (DWD) has pointed out impending dangers two days ahead, said DWD meteorologist Lars Kirchhuebel. 24 hours before "Christian" arrived in Germany, there had been warnings for Northern Germany, but not specifically for Hamburg. There had been a warning on Monday morning of gusts up to 103 kmh and in the afternoon a storm warning of hurricane force winds with more than 104 kmh. At that time in Hamburg-Finkenwerder gusts up to 120 kmh already had been measured.

Meteorologist Dominik Jung on wetter.net says: "The intense low was foreseeable for a few days. At the latest at Monday morning, when damage and wind forces from England and France were known, appropriate severe weather warnings should have been issued in order to warn people and first responders." For Jung it is incomprehensible why a severe weather warning was delayed "until to the middle of the hurricane [orig.: orkan] chaos" in Hamburg.


Link to the assessment of Dominik Jung (in German)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather