Intense New England Hurricanes Much More Numerous 340 to 1800 Years Ago

By: Jeff Masters , 6:43 PM GMT on February 17, 2015

Numerous Category 3 and 4 hurricanes frequently pounded New England during the first millennium, from the peak of the Roman Empire into the height of the Middle Ages, said a study accepted for publication this month in the open-access journal Earth’s Future, Climate Forcing of Unprecedented Intense-Hurricane Activity in the Last 2,000 Years. These prehistoric hurricanes were stronger than any hurricane documented to hit the region since the mid-1800s, and would be catastrophic if they hit the region today, according to Jeff Donnelly, a scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) in Massachusetts and lead author of the new paper. In a press release, Donnelly said, “We hope this study broadens our sense of what is possible and what we should expect in a warmer climate. We may need to begin planning for a category 3 hurricane landfall every decade or so rather than every 100 or 200 years.”


Figure 1. The storm surge from Category 2 Hurricane Carol in 1954 batters New England's Edgewood Yacht Club near Providence, Rhode Island. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

The paper is the latest contribution to the field of paleotempestology--the study of past tropical cyclone activity by means sediment deposits, cave speleothems, tree rings, coral deposits, as well as historical documentary records. In this case, the researchers took sediment cores from Salt Pond near Falmouth on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The pond is separated from the ocean by a 1.3- to 1.8-meter (4.3- to 5.9-foot) high sand barrier. Over hundreds of years, storm surges from Category 2 and stronger hurricanes have deposited sediment over the barrier and into the pond. The scientists were able to calibrate the timing of the intense hurricane strikes by dating the layers from Category 2 Hurricane Bob of 1991, the 1675 (September 7) New England hurricane, and the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635, which passed across southeastern New England and caused widespread damage consistent with a category 3 hurricane.


Figure 2. Scientists collect a sediment core from Salt Pond in Falmouth, Massachusetts, to study hurricane overwash deposits placed there by storm surges from intense hurricanes. The aluminum tube was vibrated into the muddy sediment at the bottom of the pond and then extracted with a hoist. Image Credit: WHOI

The prehistoric sediments showed that there were two periods of elevated intense hurricane activity on Cape Cod--from 150 to 1150, and from 1400 to 1675. Previous paleotempestology studies also found evidence of high hurricane activity during 150 - 1150 A.D. from the Caribbean to the Gulf Coast. Both time periods had unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region for hurricanes, from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa. Warm ocean temperatures in this region have been linked to increased intense hurricane activity by a number of recent research papers. In recent decades, ocean temperatures in the Main Development Region have surpassed the warmth of prehistoric levels, and these waters are expected to warm further over the next century as the climate heats up, suggesting that intense hurricane activity in New England may return to the levels of 340 to 1800 years ago. However, other factors besides warming SSTs will also shape what happens in the North Atlantic. For example, the pattern of ocean warming could bring more El Niño-style wind shear to the Atlantic, reducing hurricane activity. Still, New England would be wise to take heed of Donnelly's advice that we may need to begin planning for a category 3 hurricane landfall every decade or so rather than every 100 or 200 years.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Actually I was referring to Tennessee and Hydrus' ice storm woes.

But, yes, the snowpack refrigerator can wreak havoc with a marginal rain event. With you there.

I don't think flooding will be the issue this time around as just not going to get warm enough for rapid melt. I could see much of the liquid precip this time around being absorbed by the snowpack. Of course, that changes if you're talking a lot of rain in a short time.

Quoting 383. Methurricanes:

I would be nervous of the snow pack preserving cold surface temps in Mass, most worried about slightly inland, and North of the Mass Pike.
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Quoting 375. ricderr:

Yes, let's continue to trust a model that has been consistently wrong over the past 4 years in showing a strong El Nino that has yet to materialize.


first of all.... as you know tropic.....you have to use the correct CFSV2 run.......a good way for people to see what is used by the pro mes is to use the one on your blog.....and that one has never shown an anomaly of 3 to 4 c.....either the original poster is fabricating that figure or is using the wrong model........however.....as mentioned by the aussie mets yesterday in their enso report.....we have entered that springtime barrier...where the models cannot be trusted.....we saw how foolish some looked last year this time


The model i posted is the CFSv2 and it updates every 6 hours on Weatherbell and yes it does show a strip of 3C to 4C anomalies with a average of likely 2C for the area as a whole. Again good try to you as well.
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Quoting 364. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes, let's continue to trust a model that has been consistently wrong over the past 4 years in showing a strong El Nino that has yet to materialize.


That's why just about all the models have now followed the CFSv2 with a few now showing a warmer signal than the CFSv2 but good try TA13. People are not happy looking at all these models showing El-Nino as that would tend to mean a less active hurricane season. Again good try though.

As I stated earlier several other models now are as strong or stronger with El-Nino than the CFSv2 with one being the one that NASA uses. This jump upwards is a significant increase by these models from the January update which the IRI site has not updated for a month now.

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Quoting 381. HaoleboySurfEC:

Looks like some more rough weather on the way to you. How bad is the ice damage in your area? Level 3 or greater? Any talk of a federal disaster declaration?

Best of luck. Ice storms are no fun.


I would be nervous of the snow pack preserving cold surface temps in Mass, most worried about slightly inland, and North of the Mass Pike.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
35 degrees Friday morning (brrrr). But back in the 80s by Sunday. That's an incredible warm up.

7 Day for Fort Myers





35 is nothing now try -30 be low 0 now that cold
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Looks like some more rough weather on the way to you. How bad is the ice damage in your area? Level 3 or greater? Any talk of a federal disaster declaration?

Best of luck. Ice storms are no fun.

Quoting 351. hydrus:

Boston is in for more problems. I dont seen an end to it until March. Its a mess here too..winds are gusting over thirty , trees are crackin from all the ice , and its snowing....Looking forward to warmer days.
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Just a note on the concentration of top 10 snowfall seasons in Boston in the last 25 or so years. At the beginning of the period and the end of the period of observation the measurement technique changed.
At first they would measure snow at the end of each storm.
Now they measure every 6 hours.
In a city like Boston when often a powerful Nor'easter can draw in a maritime layer causing mixing, the latter method gets higher snowfall totals.
ex.
Say there is an 18 storm, it snows 6 inches, mixes, then snows 6 inches one in 1900 one in 2013
the former method (1900) it would snow 6 inches compact 3 inches during the mix period, and snow an additional six, measured only at the end (3 6) making the storm total 9.
the latter method (say 2013)they would measure the snowfall 3 times, getting 6 inches, 0 inches, and 6 inches added together its 12 inches. That's 66% more snow than the same storm in 1900
not saying there is no upward trend, but it may be exaggerated.

and if anyone was wondering the snow-water equivalent is about 6.5 inches.
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Quoting 376. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

hmmm make sure you put that in the help ticket if you send one

that's about all I can do


thanks
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Quoting 346. TropicalAnalystwx13:

If you're in southern California/Arizona/Florida, just know that the rest of the United States hates you.


LOl but..its getting cold here too..stop sending it down here
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Quoting 374. tampabaymatt:



I went in to "my blog" to add someone to my ignore list, but I didn't post a blog.
hmmm make sure you put that in the help ticket if you send one

that's about all I can do
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Yes, let's continue to trust a model that has been consistently wrong over the past 4 years in showing a strong El Nino that has yet to materialize.


first of all.... as you know tropic.....you have to use the correct CFSV2 run.......a good way for people to see what is used by the pro mes is to use the one on your blog.....and that one has never shown an anomaly of 3 to 4 c.....either the original poster is fabricating that figure or is using the wrong model........however.....as mentioned by the aussie mets yesterday in their enso report.....we have entered that springtime barrier...where the models cannot be trusted.....we saw how foolish some looked last year this time
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Quoting 370. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

did you just post your own blog for the first time recently


I went in to "my blog" to add someone to my ignore list, but I didn't post a blog.
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does not appear so just checked not sure send a help ticket here

Link
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Quoting 367. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The ECMWF also has a low off the coast at that time. Trends in the track of that low will be important; if it shifts any farther southeast over the coming days, most of the precipitation would remain offshore, leaving us (I live near Wilmington, NC) dry. On the other hand, if it trends too far northwest, we may end up with an icy or just rainy solution. Overall, I think this might be our last good shot at wintry precipitation before we enter March and begin to warm up.

Thanks for the reply! I'll definitely be keeping an eye on the track / models... and I agree, it probably is our last chance this winter, unfortunately (for those of us who still like the snow!).
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Quoting 347. NativeSun:

Lets get this right, it's no longer AGW, it's climate change as Global Warming is no longer the appropriate words of choice.

Right, like IPCC used to be named 'IPGW'.
And never mind last year was a #1 again, no?
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Quoting 369. tampabaymatt:



Do you happen to know why my number of comments ticker reset all of a sudden?
did you just post your own blog for the first time recently
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Quoting 366. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

there is all kinds of things that cause change over time of 10,000 too 100,000 years

what our problem is we have done it in 100 years 1920 2020 which would take nature maybe a couple of 1000 now she playing catch up running towards us faster and faster and once finally there she says tag yer it


Do you happen to know why my number of comments ticker reset all of a sudden?
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anomaly i read it right neo thanxs
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Quoting 365. carolinabelle:



So this is a week out on the GFS, which I know may as well be an eternity as far as weather forecasting is concerned & probably not at all accurate... but I'd be lying if I said a big part of me wasn't wishing for it. We live 30 mins NW of Charleston, SC and haven't seen a good snow since early 2010!  The meteogram for KCHS is showing up to 8 inches!  So, tell me straight, does anyone think this model has any chance of verifying?


The ECMWF also has a low off the coast at that time. Trends in the track of that low will be important; if it shifts any farther southeast over the coming days, most of the precipitation would remain offshore, leaving us (I live near Wilmington, NC) dry. On the other hand, if it trends too far northwest, we may end up with an icy or just rainy solution. Overall, I think this might be our last good shot at wintry precipitation before we enter March and begin to warm up.
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Quoting 355. rjsenterp:

Hmm. "Unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region for hurricanes,...", with no humans to blame it on? You mean there might actually be other mechanisms that cause this?

Amazing!
there is all kinds of things that cause change over time of 10,000 too 100,000 years

what our problem is we have done it in 100 years 1920 2020 which would take nature maybe a couple of 1000 now she playing catch up running towards us faster and faster and once finally there she says tag yer it
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


So this is a week out on the GFS, which I know may as well be an eternity as far as weather forecasting is concerned & probably not at all accurate... but I'd be lying if I said a big part of me wasn't wishing for it. We live 30 mins NW of Charleston, SC and haven't seen a good snow since early 2010!  The meteogram for KCHS is showing up to 8 inches!  So, tell me straight, does anyone think this model has any chance of verifying?
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Quoting 331. StormTrackerScott:



Gearing up for a moderate to maybe Strong El-Nino as the latest runs of the CFSv2 have been showing a mind boggling 3C to 4C anomalies showing up across Nino 3.4 during August & September. I haven't seen that since 1997/1998 El-Nino. This might get interesting as we go forward so strap in because I think El-Nino is going to come this year unlike last year this ain't going to be no bust.



Yes, let's continue to trust a model that has been consistently wrong over the past 4 years in showing a strong El Nino that has yet to materialize.
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Climate Change Leads to Rapid Emergence of Infectious Diseases

Adam Novak, February 18, 2015 9:32 am


Climate change is creating conditions that are likely to increase the rate of infectious disease worldwide.

That’s the key findings of two new studies that show viruses such as Ebola, H1N1 and TB, as well as dengue and yellow fevers could spread further and become more frequent because of our changing climate.


Mosquito, a disease vector. Photo credit: Creative Commons: Enrique Dans In one recently published article, zoologists studied climate in two vastly different regions—the tropics and the Arctic—to gain an understanding of how climate change may affect the spread of disease.

In both regions the scientists found that by altering and moving habitat zones of disease-carrying animals, climate change could be making outbreaks of diseases more frequent.

Previously, scientists believed that parasites could not quickly jump from one host to another because of the way parasites and hosts co-evolve. This would, in effect, make new disease more rare as parasites would first have to evolve a genetic mutation in order to move to another species.

However, the new analysis argues that these evolutionary jumps can come quicker then anticipated.

“Even though a parasite might have a very specialized relationship with one particular host in one particular place, there are other hosts that may be as susceptible,”said Daniel Brooks, professor at University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

Newer hosts are more susceptible to infections because they haven’t developed resistances to them, making the hosts more likely to get sicker.

The researchers predict that as humans move deeper in wildlife areas they are more likely to interact with animals affected by new more virulent strains of pathogens. This would increase the rate of human epidemics and could be spread even further through global air travel.

Sometimes the new diseases will come to us more directly.

In another new study, a team of researchers from the U.K. and Germany found that rising temperatures in Europe could bring traditionally tropical diseases such as dengue and yellow fevers to Europe.

The researchers predicted 2.4 billion people could be exposed to the Asian tiger mosquito by the middle of the century, as they emigrate from Africa to Europe’s new warmer climate.

The mosquito can transmit pathogens that spread diseases including dengue fever, chikungunya infection, yellow fever and encephalitis.

The research suggests the chances of the Asian tiger mosquito, hitting the UK and France are higher than previously thought.

Eastern Brazil, the eastern U.S., Western and Central Europe and Eastern China are also likely to provide increasingly suitable habitats for the mosquito between the period 2045 and 2054.


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Quoting rjsenterp:
Hmm. "Unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region for hurricanes,...", with no humans to blame it on? You mean there might actually be other mechanisms that cause this?

Amazing!
Perhaps it wouldn't be so "Amazing!" to you if you'd taken the time to study the science. The thing is, the climate doesn't just change because it feels like it. Through researching past climatic changes, we know that greenhouse gasses--mostly CO2--have been the catalyst for most of those previous climate changes. And that's why most scientists are certain that the current climate changes we're seeing are indeed man's fault.
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more snow for the northeast

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Quoting 355. rjsenterp:

Hmm. "Unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region for hurricanes,...", with no humans to blame it on? You mean there might actually be other mechanisms that cause this?

Amazing!

"In recent decades, ocean temperatures in the Main Development Region have surpassed the warmth of prehistoric levels"

Now that could be considered even more amazing.

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Published Feb 18 2015 09:39 AM EST
System #1: Northeast Nuisance
An arctic cold front will spread light snow into the East Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Snow amounts through Wednesday night will generally be 3 inches or less as this cold front slices through, including a swath from the Ohio River Valley into the Appalachians, much of New York, Pennsylvania, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic States.

It's worth mentioning that while accumulations will be light, this snow could fall in a burst, or snow squall, reducing visibilities suddenly. Multi-vehicle accidents have occurred several times this winter in these sudden snow squalls.

Possible slick commutes, due to this fresh, light snow include:

Wed. afternoon: Pittsburgh | Charleston, West Virginia
Thu. morning: NYC | Philly | Balt. | Wash., D.C.
Thursday, low pressure is expected to wrap-up off the New England coast, south of Nova Scotia.

Before that low intensifies, bands of heavy snow along a surface trough of low pressure should align over parts of Maine and New Hampshire overnight Wednesday night into Thursday. Then, additional heavy snow should wrap into Maine Thursday into early Friday, before tapering off.

The National Weather Service has posted winter storm watches for all of Maine and northern New Hampshire. As you can see from our snowfall forecast map, this is where the greatest chance of at least 6 inches of snow is. Some locations where the heavy snowbands persist the longest will likely tally over a foot of new snow.

We only expect mainly light to locally moderate snow (4 inches or less) over the rest of New England Thursday and Thursday night, including Boston and Hartford.
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Quoting 354. hurricanes2018:

el nino will be here around late april
Yes, we might have a Nino, but you forgot to put Modoki in front of El Nino and it should be a weak one.
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Hmm. "Unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region for hurricanes,...", with no humans to blame it on? You mean there might actually be other mechanisms that cause this?

Amazing!
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el nino will be here around late april
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Saw nearly 70" last year and we are already off to a fast start again this year and I worry that with every model except one showing El-Nino that a predominate westerly flow maybe in place again this Summer as was the case last year.


there are more than one model showing warm neutral to neutral in the summer months.....


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Quoting 345. aevil2:



I can't think of anything worse than an inch or so of rain on top of all this snow here in Boston. I hope it's wrong and we get another foot of snow. In the meantime, I think I'm going to go hunting for the street drains under several feet of snow....
Boston is in for more problems. I dont seen an end to it until March. Its a mess here too..winds are gusting over thirty , trees are crackin from all the ice , and its snowing....Looking forward to warmer days.
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Quoting 337. StormTrackerScott:



It was a very interesting pattern last year for sure as scattered storms would move into the Tampa area in the early morning then burn off only to have numerous storms form from Orlando area east then late in the day outflow boundaries from those storms caused storms to build back into the Tampa area later in the evenings. Pattern could be similar this Wet Season.

July


August
Looks like a busy tropical season for S. Fla. with all that rain.
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Quoting 347. NativeSun:

Lets get this right, it's no longer AGW, it's climate change as Global Warming is no longer the appropriate words of choice.


Yes, let's get it right

"Global Warming vs. Climate Change

Both of the terms in question are used frequently in the scientific literature, because they refer to two different physical phenomena. As the name suggests, 'global warming' refers to the long-term trend of a rising average global temperature. Climate change', again as the name suggests, refers to the changes in the global climate which result from the increasing average global temperature. For example, changes in precipitation patterns, increased prevalence of droughts, heat waves, and other extreme weather, etc."

"Both Terms Have Long Been Used

The argument "they changed the name" suggests that the term 'global warming' was previously the norm, and the widespread use of the term 'climate change' is now. However, this is simply untrue. For example, a seminal climate science work is Gilbert Plass' 1956 study 'The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change' (which coincidentally estimated the climate sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide at 3.6°C, not far off from today's widely accepted most likely value of 3°C). Barrett and Gast published a letter in Science in 1971 entitled simply 'Climate Change'. The journal 'Climatic Change' was created in 1977 (and is still published today). The IPCC was formed in 1988, and of course the 'CC' is 'climate change', not 'global warming'. There are many, many other examples of the use of the term 'climate change' many decades ago. There is nothing new whatsoever about the usage of the term.

In fact, according to Google Books, the usage of both terms in books published in the United States has increased at similar rates over the past 40 years and a Google Scholar search reveals that the term 'climate change' was in use before the term 'global warming', and has always been the more commonly-used term in scientific literature: Link

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Quoting 331. StormTrackerScott:



Gearing up for a moderate to maybe Strong El-Nino as the latest runs of the CFSv2 have been showing a mind boggling 3C to 4C anomalies showing up across Nino 3.4 during August & September. I haven't seen that since 1997/1998 El-Nino. This might get interesting as we go forward so strap in because I think El-Nino is going to come this year unlike last year this ain't going to be no bust.

Yeah, it's pretty mind boggling that some people trust these models this far out. Lets wait until late spring to discuss the Nino, Nina state.
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Quoting 330. cRRKampen:


You are not the living dead, but you are confusing 'most' with 'all'. Doesn't matter, I'm used to talking to people with language deficits (other words most people cannot parse are 'Not' and, most especially: 'If').

Stuck Pattern Syndrome is right now AGW's way of producing those rare cold records these days. Most people alive will see this end, too, for it will be rapidly overtaken by raw Arctic Amplification.

There are probably a dozen or more hot date records about 2000 km west of you for your misery tomorrow.
Lets get this right, it's no longer AGW, it's climate change as Global Warming is no longer the appropriate words of choice.
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If you're in southern California/Arizona/Florida, just know that the rest of the United States hates you.

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Quoting 343. hydrus:




I can't think of anything worse than an inch or so of rain on top of all this snow here in Boston. I hope it's wrong and we get another foot of snow. In the meantime, I think I'm going to go hunting for the street drains under several feet of snow....
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35 degrees Friday morning (brrrr). But back in the 80s by Sunday. That's an incredible warm up.

7 Day for Fort Myers

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Tell me, is it really 4 degrees in Cape Girardeau?
Cape Giradeau MO
Fair
4°F
-16°C
Humidity73%
Wind SpeedW 10 mph
Barometer30.11 in (1020.0 mb)
Dewpoint-3°F (-19°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Wind Chill-11°F (-24°C)
Last Update on 18 Feb 6:53 am CST
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Red Flag warnings are also up due to the risk of fires from lower humidity.

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
222 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-19 0700-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FW.A.0001.150219T1500Z-150220T0000Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-
MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
222 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DUE TO
VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND SUSTAINED WINDS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA... INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY... NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY... ORANGE... SEMINOLE... SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...
OSCEOLA... INDIAN RIVER... OKEECHOBEE... ST. LUCIE... MARTIN...
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY... SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY... NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY.

* WIND...20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS.

* HUMIDITY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 24 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
241 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

FLZ041-044-141-191300-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FZ.W.0001.150219T0800Z-150219T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.FZ.A.0001.150220T0600Z-150220T1400Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DELTONA...DE LAND...LEESBURG...EUSTIS...
LADY LAKE...TAVARES...MOUNT DORA...THE VILLAGES...DAYTONA BEACH...
PORT ORANGE...ORMOND BEACH...EDGEWATER
241 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR TO JUST BELOW
FREEZING OVER MUCH OF VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS
ALSO IN EFFECT. EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S ARE
FORECAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH.

* IMPACTS...THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE CAPABLE OF HARMING
SENSITIVE AND ORNAMENTAL VEGETATION. SMALL ANIMALS SHOULD BE
ADEQUATELY CARED FOR OR BROUGHT INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
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Quoting 336. tampabaymatt:



We still had plenty of rain in Tampa last summer with a predominate westerly flow. There was a pretty pronounced 2 week dry period in June, but the rest of the summer was very wet. All that seems to do is change the timing of the rain from afternoon to mornings.

With that said, when we got drilled in late September with about 11 inches of rain in 4-5 days, that was due to an easterly flow combined with PWATs through the roof.

C FL is just in a really wet pattern right now with no end in sight.


It was a very interesting pattern last year for sure as scattered storms would move into the Tampa area in the early morning then burn off only to have numerous storms form from Orlando area east then late in the day outflow boundaries from those storms caused storms to build back into the Tampa area later in the evenings. Pattern could be similar this Wet Season.

July


August
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Quoting 334. StormTrackerScott:



Saw nearly 70" last year and we are already off to a fast start again this year and I worry that with every model except one showing El-Nino that a predominate westerly flow maybe in place again this Summer as was the case last year.


We still had plenty of rain in Tampa last summer with a predominate westerly flow. There was a pretty pronounced 2 week dry period in June, but the rest of the summer was very wet. All that seems to do is change the timing of the rain from afternoon to mornings.

With that said, when we got drilled in late September with about 11 inches of rain in 4-5 days, that was due to an easterly flow combined with PWATs through the roof.

C FL is just in a really wet pattern right now with no end in sight.
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Category 6™

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather