Intense New England Hurricanes Much More Numerous 340 to 1800 Years Ago

By: Jeff Masters , 6:43 PM GMT on February 17, 2015

Numerous Category 3 and 4 hurricanes frequently pounded New England during the first millennium, from the peak of the Roman Empire into the height of the Middle Ages, said a study accepted for publication this month in the open-access journal Earth’s Future, Climate Forcing of Unprecedented Intense-Hurricane Activity in the Last 2,000 Years. These prehistoric hurricanes were stronger than any hurricane documented to hit the region since the mid-1800s, and would be catastrophic if they hit the region today, according to Jeff Donnelly, a scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) in Massachusetts and lead author of the new paper. In a press release, Donnelly said, “We hope this study broadens our sense of what is possible and what we should expect in a warmer climate. We may need to begin planning for a category 3 hurricane landfall every decade or so rather than every 100 or 200 years.”


Figure 1. The storm surge from Category 2 Hurricane Carol in 1954 batters New England's Edgewood Yacht Club near Providence, Rhode Island. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

The paper is the latest contribution to the field of paleotempestology--the study of past tropical cyclone activity by means sediment deposits, cave speleothems, tree rings, coral deposits, as well as historical documentary records. In this case, the researchers took sediment cores from Salt Pond near Falmouth on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The pond is separated from the ocean by a 1.3- to 1.8-meter (4.3- to 5.9-foot) high sand barrier. Over hundreds of years, storm surges from Category 2 and stronger hurricanes have deposited sediment over the barrier and into the pond. The scientists were able to calibrate the timing of the intense hurricane strikes by dating the layers from Category 2 Hurricane Bob of 1991, the 1675 (September 7) New England hurricane, and the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635, which passed across southeastern New England and caused widespread damage consistent with a category 3 hurricane.


Figure 2. Scientists collect a sediment core from Salt Pond in Falmouth, Massachusetts, to study hurricane overwash deposits placed there by storm surges from intense hurricanes. The aluminum tube was vibrated into the muddy sediment at the bottom of the pond and then extracted with a hoist. Image Credit: WHOI

The prehistoric sediments showed that there were two periods of elevated intense hurricane activity on Cape Cod--from 150 to 1150, and from 1400 to 1675. Previous paleotempestology studies also found evidence of high hurricane activity during 150 - 1150 A.D. from the Caribbean to the Gulf Coast. Both time periods had unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region for hurricanes, from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa. Warm ocean temperatures in this region have been linked to increased intense hurricane activity by a number of recent research papers. In recent decades, ocean temperatures in the Main Development Region have surpassed the warmth of prehistoric levels, and these waters are expected to warm further over the next century as the climate heats up, suggesting that intense hurricane activity in New England may return to the levels of 340 to 1800 years ago. However, other factors besides warming SSTs will also shape what happens in the North Atlantic. For example, the pattern of ocean warming could bring more El Niño-style wind shear to the Atlantic, reducing hurricane activity. Still, New England would be wise to take heed of Donnelly's advice that we may need to begin planning for a category 3 hurricane landfall every decade or so rather than every 100 or 200 years.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting 205. sar2401:

The South is easily defined. There are only 11 states that qualify -

South Carolina
Mississippi
Florida
Alabama
Georgia
Louisiana
Texas
Virginia
Arkansas
North Carolina
Tennessee

These are the states of the Confederacy. There no other Southern states. There are other states in the south, but it's not the same.
Quoting 220. WaterWitch11:



are you sure florida counts??? i know its swamp land but i am not so sure :)
Several things. First off, Florida, per se, is not "swamp land." Check out post #202 and you can see on the map that only a small portion of Florida is shown in purple, depicting wetlands, which is the polite term for swampland. Saying "I know it's swamp land" when describing Florida would be like saying that"( New York state) is skyscrapers." I think you get the point.

Secondly, Florida is as much southern as any other state in Dixie. Yes there are millions of transplants in Florida from outside the south but nowadays, that is happening very rapidly throughout the South. The South, just like all areas of the world is evolving as time passes. So stereotypes that are thought to be typically southern may have applied more accurately in the past but not as much today and even less so tomorrow. But still and due to geography, the South will always be the South and Florida is certainly a part of that.

And finally, your post suggests that swampland is somehow indicative of the South or is Southern in nature or even perhaps exclusively. Swamps exist all over the world and have nothing to do with region, including in the US. There are some famous wetlands in Florida and throughout the South but this is also true in numerous other areas, it is far from being just a Southern thing.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
however that lens is ubiquitous to every generation ... harder to dispose of than one might think... 1830s slavery was already a world away from 1780s slavery [thinking ABT indentured status] but by 1855 the world had moved on . Huge portions of the formerly slavery-dependent world were developing new systems that were more efficient, if not more humane. The South didn't have the investment in this new way of doing business, so they fought against it. Because they didn't bring the change upon themselves, the south lost 80 years and more of potential progress and advancement. Education of southern blacks after the war could've given the south a strong middle class to match the north. Realistically, of course, the mindset of post civil war white southerners was far from this. Hindsight will always be around, but I agree it's not fair to judge. Nevertheless I think we should evaluate history through the eyes of our own time ... perhaps we'll learn from the experience ...

Interesting points ... we don't always see eye to eye on everything, but I enjoy the discussion ...
Yes, we always tend to judge the past based on today, which is why we so often get the future wrong. The South in 1860 was in in a unique position. They controlled (or so they thought) the entire world supply of cotton. Cotton as as a cash crop was second only to tobacco, which the South also mostly controlled. The problem for the South was both crops were about the most labor intensive on earth. Without slaves, there was no cotton and no economy in the South. A lot of Southerners hated slavery but the were riding on the back of a tiger without a way to get off and not be eaten. The South also assumed that Britain, the world's largest processor of cotton into finished goods, would side with the Confederacy.

Unfortunately for the Confederacy, the Civil War changed everything, and none of it for the better. Britain started growing cotton in Egypt (mostly using African slaves, I might add) and was independent of the Confederate supply by 1865. The North started growing tobacco in border states, and the old Confederacy lost its near monopoly. Between the utter destruction of much of the South and the years of occupation and "reconstruction", whatever other industry the South had ceased to exist. There was never a chance to develop a black middle class because there wasn't a white middle class. The South was in abject poverty, and that didn't change until over 30 years later. Even at this late date, the South continues to lag behind other sections of the country because it can't run faster than the leaders who already had a big head start. Ironically, most historians think that slavery would have ended on its own within 20 years of the Civil War due to the invention of cotton farming machinery.
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Quoting 275. ColoradoBob1:



Off topic %u2013
Charley Rose is talking to an ex CIA guy tonight. Not once has he mentioned that the Saudi %u2018s funded a virulent effort since Roosevelt to kill us. Our oil money all these years gave us ISIS. Now the genie is out of the bottle, and ISIS wants to kill the Saudi princes as well.

As long as they pumped oil , we turned a blind eye to the Wahhabi bullshit they exported.

Now, it may eat all of us.

Solar power does not have 1,400 years of baggage.

I have never seen a solar farm explode , and dump waste into a river.


With the U.S. continuing to increase home grown oil production in the U.S. are becoming less and less dependent on middle east oil while the rest of the world becomes even more dependent on middle east oil.
With that said, our increasing oil production will give us plenty of time for boosting the economy and the energy industry to tackle the development of transitioning to alternative energy like solar.
Transitioning away from middle east oil I think is the number one reason the U.S. is recovering. Personally I think our feudal political system is running the country like a risk board game and is slowing what I think would have been an even more massive economic recovery than it has been.

With that said, despite all our problems, we are proving to be very resilient and have overcome many things in the last decade that had signs of spelling our downfall as a civilized nation. Thankfully we've pulled out as a whole.
And while the loud voices are often the scary and destructive ones, those who are doing the most good are often the ones who toot their horns the least, and so when good is being done, if often catches us by surprise compared to when wrong things are being done, which tend to be announced more.

With that said I still have hopes we'll become a world leader in alternative energy independence, and companies like space X, and Tesla and more, along with the recovery of leading science operations in the government like NASA and the NWS give me hopes of our science future despite many who have fearfully apposed scientific progress recently.
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Quoting 278. Jedkins01:



Yeah so far it's been a decent winter rain wise for most of Florida except far southern Florida. There have been a lot of good soaking rain events over the last several weeks in Central and North Florida. Although ironically so far in February Central Florida has been getting a bit more rain out of these events as whole then us despite the always emphasis on higher qpf and rain chances up here compared to down there.

Looks like a decent rain band moving through thanks to plenty of moisture and jet dynamics on top of already decent rainfall from earlier. Rainfall is past an inch in parts of Tampa Bay so far.


1.07" here in Longwood and its raining very hard right now. The yellow's on the radar are actually coming down as very heavy rains with vis down to 1.5 miles.
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Quoting 279. ColoradoBob1:

PBS Bees Knees produced CNBC is asking about rail cars tonight ,
It's the roadbed fool . It's the problem . Heavy trains, running over old old road beds , what could possibility go wrong ?


This is why we all hate the media, they always ask the lazy and simple question.
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Quoting 258. win1gamegiantsplease:



He might be alright in many spots of North Carolina, or what I like to call New New Jersey.


Believe me, we'd like our taxpayers back just as badly as you'd like to send them back.
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Quoting 273. sar2401:

Nah, you'd be OK. The Civil War mainly consists of some statues in town here. I'm a Yankee and nothing is shoved down my throat. People here are kinder, more considerate, and more caring about each other than any place else I've ever lived. It's not paradise, and it has its problems, but people will actually help strangers here, no questions asked. Having been to the Bahamas many times and now living in Alabama, I think you'd find the two cultures more alike than you might imagine. There's always an extra room at the Hotel SAR if you want to get your toe wet. :-)
I've found over the years that so many people are a lot kinder than stereotypes suggest :-) ... in just about every part of the US . It's sad that we [I Mean people generally] spend so much time hating each other for our differences that we don't get to enjoy the ways we are alike. Guess that is why I like this blog. uess
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
PBS Bees Knees produced CNBC is asking about rail cars tonight ,
It's the roadbed fool . It's the problem . Heavy trains, running over old old road beds , what could possibility go wrong ?
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Quoting 241. StormTrackerScott:

Quite the soaking right now here in C FL. Up to .86" and may pick up another .75" to 1" before 5am. This puts me at 3.02" for February so far with average being for 2.3" for the whole month and if the Euro pans out then C FL could get another 2" to 3" of rain next week as the Euro stalls a front out overhead and keeps it there for several days.




Yeah so far it's been a decent winter rain wise for most of Florida except far southern Florida. There have been a lot of good soaking rain events over the last several weeks in Central and North Florida. Although ironically so far in February Central Florida has been getting a bit more rain out of these events as whole then us despite the always emphasis on higher qpf and rain chances up here compared to down there.

Looks like a decent rain band moving through thanks to plenty of moisture and jet dynamics on top of already decent rainfall from earlier. Rainfall is past an inch in parts of Tampa Bay so far.
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Quoting 265. sar2401:

No digression at all. Slavery was the proximate cause of the war but slavery was a much different thing in 1830 than it is today. The Bahamas would never had been populated as early as it was if not for slavery and the slave trade, and the Bahamas has a proud history of helping shelter escaping slaves. I just think looking at history through the lens of today always gives one a distorted view. The concept of Holy Wars always makes me nervous. :-)
however that lens is ubiquitous to every generation ... harder to dispose of than one might think... 1830s slavery was already a world away from 1780s slavery [thinking ABT indentured status] but by 1855 the world had moved on . Huge portions of the formerly slavery-dependent world were developing new systems that were more efficient, if not more humane. The South didn't have the investment in this new way of doing business, so they fought against it. Because they didn't bring the change upon themselves, the south lost 80 years and more of potential progress and advancement. Education of southern blacks after the war could've given the south a strong middle class to match the north. Realistically, of course, the mindset of post civil war white southerners was far from this. Hindsight will always be around, but I agree it's not fair to judge. Nevertheless I think we should evaluate history through the eyes of our own time ... perhaps we'll learn from the experience ...

Interesting points ... we don't always see eye to eye on everything, but I enjoy the discussion ...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
A nice soaking over Central FL. tonight. Already up to 0.71" at the ASOS.

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Off topic –
Charley Rose is talking to an ex CIA guy tonight. Not once has he mentioned that the Saudi ‘s funded a virulent effort since Roosevelt to kill us. Our oil money all these years gave us ISIS. Now the genie is out of the bottle, and ISIS wants to kill the Saudi princes as well.

As long as they pumped oil , we turned a blind eye to the Wahhabi bullshit they exported.

Now, it may eat all of us.

Solar power does not have 1,400 years of baggage.

I have never seen a solar farm explode , and dump waste into a river.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Maybe debating's the better word then.
Yeah, probably. It's kind of blog tradition when there's no blizzard in Boston or hurricane in Florida. :-)
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I gotta admit, putting aside wx issues like hurricanes, tornadoes AND snow , I'd be reluctant to move to the deep South, partly because I don't know if I would ever be comfortable with the "popular" view of events like the civil war. To me it's hard to justify the nostalgia when one appreciates the injustices on which it is predicated. I have a similar view towards glorification of Regency and post-Regency English aristocrats.
Nah, you'd be OK. The Civil War mainly consists of some statues in town here. I'm a Yankee and nothing is shoved down my throat. People here are kinder, more considerate, and more caring about each other than any place else I've ever lived. It's not paradise, and it has its problems, but people will actually help strangers here, no questions asked. Having been to the Bahamas many times and now living in Alabama, I think you'd find the two cultures more alike than you might imagine. There's always an extra room at the Hotel SAR if you want to get your toe wet. :-)
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Quoting 267. sar2401:

No one's arguing, Tim.


Maybe debating's the better word then.
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Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


He might be alright in many spots of North Carolina, or what I like to call New New Jersey.
It's the Second Yankee Invasion! We have to sell them lots of houses now and condos now. :-)
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On another item, we had roughly 4 inches of snow with a nice coating of sleet to top it off this morning at my residence. Mother Nature brought winter to us in southern VA kinda late but from the forecasts it appears to be here for awhile.
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I gotta admit, putting aside wx issues like hurricanes, tornadoes AND snow , I'd be reluctant to move to the deep South, partly because I don't know if I would ever be comfortable with the "popular" view of events like the civil war. To me it's hard to justify the nostalgia when one appreciates the injustices on which it is predicated. I have a similar view towards glorification of Regency and post-Regency English aristocrats.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


Off topic –
Charley Rose is talking to an ex CIA guy tonight. Not once has he mentioned that the Saudi ‘s funded a virulent effort since Roosevelt to kill us. Our oil money all these years gave us ISIS. Now the genie is out of the bottle, and ISIS wants to kill the Saudi princes as well.

As long as they pumped oil , we turned a blind eye to the Wahhabi bullshit they exported.

Now, it may eat all of us.

Solar power does not have 1,400 years of baggage.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TimTheWxMan:
Still arguing about the South? Take it to WU mail! :/
No one's arguing, Tim.
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Quoting 252. Methurricanes:

once self-governing almost immediately Vermont (then an independent country) and Massachusetts abolished slavery before the Constitution was a thing.
NOTHING was taken away from the South, they were not defending democracy or Republicanism, they lost a Presidential election and couldn't take the fact they could not control the Country as they have in the past, threw a hissy fit and started the Civil War because they were terrified of losing their slaves.
States rights more MORE infringed by the Fugitive slave laws than anything the North actually did.
A war in which 620,000 people parished was caused by a "hissy fit"? Both sides had men die for a cause(s) that they believed in. They were willing to leave their families and homes for what they believed. Always tread lightly when it comes to a mans beliefs...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
You might expect btw that the average black Southerner prolly has a rather different take on the reasons for the war ... I generally find that any attempt to modify the status quo, especially if the change is not to one's benefit, is likely to be met with strong opposition. Additionally it's obvious that slavery had become iconic for the both south and north prior to the start of the war. All the rest of it is rhetoric and tone.

But I digress.
No digression at all. Slavery was the proximate cause of the war but slavery was a much different thing in 1830 than it is today. The Bahamas would never had been populated as early as it was if not for slavery and the slave trade, and the Bahamas has a proud history of helping shelter escaping slaves. I just think looking at history through the lens of today always gives one a distorted view. The concept of Holy Wars always makes me nervous. :-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Still arguing about the South? Take it to WU mail! :/
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 257. sar2401:

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. One word of advice though. If you happen to travel though the South, I'd keep the "hissy fit" description of the war to myself.
You might expect btw that the average black Southerner prolly has a rather different take on the reasons for the war ... I generally find that any attempt to modify the status quo, especially if the change is not to one's benefit, is likely to be met with strong opposition. Additionally it's obvious that slavery had become iconic for the both south and north prior to the start of the war. All the rest of it is rhetoric and tone.

But I digress.
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Quoting 259. BahaHurican:

Think I may have experienced a sub-zero night in that area in the mid-80s, but single digits I definitely recall. -5 is pretty darned icy for Greensboro ...


I remember a day where we had a big snowfall that cut classes for a while where it was in single digits most of the day (around 99-2000) and maybe a tiny handfull of others but -5 is absurd cold. It's not supposed to get above zero until about 9-10 AM there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
NYC Central Park has had an average temp of 24.9 so far this month, which is 5.0 degrees warmer than the record coldest month of February 1934 at 19.9 degrees. Boston is a lot closer to their record, 18.2 so far this month, with the record at 17.5 degrees, also in 1934. The cold snap this later this week will push their average down but I have a feeling milder weather next week will keep Boston from breaking their record.

February 1934 is the coldest month on record in both cities. No other month has been that cold.
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Baltimore could have its latest subzero temperature on record. The latest temp of zero or lower is Feb 14, 1979 when it was -2. That's surprisingly early for the latest zero or lower in Baltimore, at least to me. Washington DC had a low of -1 on February 28, 1934 at the Reagan airport site.
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Quoting 255. win1gamegiantsplease:



Where my folks are (Piedmont-Triad) Thursday is forecast to be a high of 14 and a low of -5. Glad I'm not there, don't think I've ever remember feeling below zero temps. I'll actually be in your neck of the woods-ish while everyone else freezes.
Think I may have experienced a sub-zero night in that area in the mid-80s, but single digits I definitely recall. -5 is pretty darned icy for Greensboro ...
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Quoting 257. sar2401:

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. One word of advice though. If you happen to travel though the South, I'd keep the "hissy fit" description of the war to myself.


He might be alright in many spots of North Carolina, or what I like to call New New Jersey.
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Quoting Methurricanes:
once self-governing almost immediately Vermont (then an independent country) and Massachusetts abolished slavery before the Constitution was a thing.
NOTHING was taken away from the South, they were not defending democracy or Republicanism, they lost a Presidential election and couldn't take the fact they could not control the Country as they have in the past, threw a hissy fit and started the Civil War because they were terrified of losing their slaves.
States rights more MORE infringed by the Fugitive slave laws than anything the North actually did.
We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. One word of advice though. If you happen to travel though the South, I'd keep the "hissy fit" description of the war to myself.
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Quoting 250. StormTrackerScott:



High of only 50 here on Thursday.


Where my folks are (Piedmont-Triad) Thursday is forecast to be a high of 14 and a low of -5. Glad I'm not there, don't think I've ever remember feeling below zero temps. I'll actually be in your neck of the woods-ish while everyone else freezes.
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Quoting beell:
After a quick warm-up, same song, second verse from an aptly named winter forecaster.

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
423 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015

..LOWER MS VALLEY INTO TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

A FROZEN PRECIP EVENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY ON FRI. THE FRESH MAMMOTH ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE ERN THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY... WITH A HIGH CENTER BASED OVER IL BY THURS EVENING... WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT ON FRI... AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER ACROSS THE WEST AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH FOR A WARM ADVECTION/OVERRUNNING PATTERN. THIS MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN INTO THE SHALLOW AIR MASS FOR THE THREAT OF SNOW AND ICE FROM AR/SRN MO INTO WRN KY/TN AND NRN MS/AL. THE GUIDANCE IS RATHER UNANIMOUS ON MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE EXACT LOCATION IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER ANY FROZEN PRECIP IN THIS AREA WILL CAUSE ISSUES.

MUSHER
That's a rather unfortunate name to have as a forecaster this year. In the near term, there's a slight change of accumulating snow overnight in north Alabama as a mostly dry clipper sweeps through. It looks like it may have just enough lift and moisture to squeeze out a quick half to one inch snowfall in the usual places north of a Hamilton to Jasper line. It will be all snow this time, but the area had icing yesterday which didn't melt today, so there's a winter weather advisory out. The cold air advection is really pumping, with temperatures in the high teens and low 20's across the north state already. It's 31 here. The originally forecast low was 31. Time for a quick revision. :-)
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Quoting 250. StormTrackerScott:



High of only 50 here on Thursday.
Supposed to get to 66 here. Course, 66 has been more of a LOW temp so far this month .... it would be great to see a low temperature broken 4 a change.
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Quoting 248. sar2401:

I called you ignorant? Where? I just said you don't understand the South, which you demonstrated. Look up the history of the Emancipation Proclamation. Look up the Article IV, Section 2 of the Constitution. Look up who financed the slave trade. Every one of the original 13 colonies owned slaves. Delaware remained a slave state throughout the Civil War, and slavery was only abolished when the National Emancipation Act took effect in 1865.

I would in no way defend slavery, but we're talking about 1860, not 2015. Slaves and indentured servants were considered property. The Federal government refused to enforce the Article IV, Section 2, as did many non-slave states. The South faced a rapid decent into poverty as their ability to survive as an agrarian society was being illegally taken away. They saw session as their last hope for survival. This was not a war between the White Hats and the Black Hats. Stop judging the events of 155 years ago as if they were occurring today.
once self-governing almost immediately Vermont (then an independent country) and Massachusetts abolished slavery before the Constitution was a thing.
NOTHING was taken away from the South, they were not defending democracy or Republicanism, they lost a Presidential election and couldn't take the fact they could not control the Country as they have in the past, threw a hissy fit and started the Civil War because they were terrified of losing their slaves.
States rights more MORE infringed by the Fugitive slave laws than anything the North actually did.
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250. StormTrackerScott
4:15 AM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 249. BahaHurican:

'S not so bad if the wind's not blowing. Locals have been complaining about the cold too ... can't wait to hear what they say about Thursday ... :-)


High of only 50 here on Thursday.
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249. BahaHurican
4:11 AM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 247. StormTrackerScott:



I was there 2 weeks ago and it was 74 during the day with 20mph winds from the NE making it feel quite cool. The tourist there were not happy.
'S not so bad if the wind's not blowing. Locals have been complaining about the cold too ... can't wait to hear what they say about Thursday ... :-)
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248. sar2401
4:09 AM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting Methurricanes:
Those names are hogwash, basically the South can not accept they fought a war in order to preserve slavery so they make up a bunch of crap to play the victim because they cant accept the terrible things they did. Not that the north has a perfect human rights record, but sure as hell more so than the south.
calling me ignorant based off your gross misrepresentation of history is utterly insane.
Just incase if there was any question of what "Rights" the south was "protecting"
from the SC Declaration of Secession
"Those States have assumed the right of deciding upon the propriety of our domestic institutions; and have denied the rights of property established in fifteen of the States and recognized by the Constitution; they have denounced as sinful the institution of Slavery"
I called you ignorant? Where? I just said you don't understand the South, which you demonstrated. Look up the history of the Emancipation Proclamation. Look up the Article IV, Section 2 of the Constitution. Look up who financed the slave trade. Every one of the original 13 colonies owned slaves. Delaware remained a slave state throughout the Civil War, and slavery was only abolished when the National Emancipation Act took effect in 1865.

I would in no way defend slavery, but we're talking about 1860, not 2015. Slaves and indentured servants were considered property. The Federal government refused to enforce the Article IV, Section 2, as did many non-slave states. The South faced a rapid decent into poverty as their ability to survive as an agrarian society was being illegally taken away. They saw session as their last hope for survival. This was not a war between the White Hats and the Black Hats. Stop judging the events of 155 years ago as if they were occurring today.
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247. StormTrackerScott
4:02 AM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 242. BahaHurican:

Good evening all. I'm just popping in to draw attention to the frontal system which is currently over FL and which is expected to take temperatures into the mid 40s on Thursday and Friday nights over the extreme NW Bahamas. If it pans out, we will get close to record-setting lows. I must say that this has been the coolest stretch of temperatures we've had in many winters. February daytime highs have mostly stayed below 80, and, more importantly, overnight lows have consistently fallen below 70. This is the first time in years that I am genuinely reminded of late 70s wx .........


I was there 2 weeks ago and it was 74 during the day with 20mph winds from the NE making it feel quite cool. The tourist there were not happy.
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246. BahaHurican
4:00 AM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 242. BahaHurican:

Good evening all. I'm just popping in to draw attention to the frontal system which is currently over FL and which is expected to take temperatures into the mid 40s on Thursday and Friday nights over the extreme NW Bahamas. If it pans out, we will get close to record-setting lows. I must say that this has been the coolest stretch of temperatures we've had in many winters. February daytime highs have mostly stayed below 80, and, more importantly, overnight lows have consistently fallen below 70. This is the first time in years that I am genuinely reminded of late 70s wx .........
Hey! 242 is our area code ! Lol. ..... noticing the rain over FL and expecting it to head this way by tomorrow. Though it may have rained itself out by then ...
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245. win1gamegiantsplease
4:00 AM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 192. Pallis1:

You do know that there are alligators in the rivers now!!! Global swarming.


Not sure if serious but I thought Gatesville NC (Merchant Millpond) was as far north as they reached.
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244. wxgeek723
3:58 AM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 232. Methurricanes:

Those names are hogwash, basically the South can not accept they fought a war in order to preserve slavery so they make up a bunch of crap to play the victim because they cant accept the terrible things they did. Not that the north has a perfect human rights record, but sure as hell more so than the south.
calling me ignorant based off your gross misrepresentation of history is utterly insane.
Just incase if there was any question of what "Rights" the south was "protecting"
from the SC Declaration of Secession
"Those States have assumed the right of deciding upon the propriety of our domestic institutions; and have denied the rights of property established in fifteen of the States and recognized by the Constitution; they have denounced as sinful the institution of Slavery"


Oh man, you are really playing with fire on here.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
243. win1gamegiantsplease
3:56 AM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 191. TimTheWxMan:




There's more than one way to define the South. One is their ability (or lack thereof) to handle winter weather and treating one inch of snow like the apocalypse (Atlanta looking like a scene out of the walking dead last year). :O)


My father was in Atlanta for business when that happened and it wasn't just snow. When it began to snow it wasn't cold enough yet to stick so the roads got wet. The temperature after 12-1 o'clock kept dropping so the one-two inches of snow now covered a sheet of ice that no one could see. Now couple that with Atlanta 5 o'clock traffic and the rarity of winter weather and you have a problem.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
242. BahaHurican
3:47 AM GMT on February 18, 2015
Good evening all. I'm just popping in to draw attention to the frontal system which is currently over FL and which is expected to take temperatures into the mid 40s on Thursday and Friday nights over the extreme NW Bahamas. If it pans out, we will get close to record-setting lows. I must say that this has been the coolest stretch of temperatures we've had in many winters. February daytime highs have mostly stayed below 80, and, more importantly, overnight lows have consistently fallen below 70. This is the first time in years that I am genuinely reminded of late 70s wx .........
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
241. StormTrackerScott
3:42 AM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quite the soaking right now here in C FL. Up to .86" and may pick up another .75" to 1" before 5am. This puts me at 3.02" for February so far with average being for 2.3" for the whole month and if the Euro pans out then C FL could get another 2" to 3" of rain next week as the Euro stalls a front out overhead and keeps it there for several days.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
240. beell
3:42 AM GMT on February 18, 2015
After a quick warm-up, same song, second verse from an aptly named winter forecaster.

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
423 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015

..LOWER MS VALLEY INTO TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

A FROZEN PRECIP EVENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY ON FRI. THE FRESH MAMMOTH ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE ERN THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY... WITH A HIGH CENTER BASED OVER IL BY THURS EVENING... WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT ON FRI... AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER ACROSS THE WEST AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH FOR A WARM ADVECTION/OVERRUNNING PATTERN. THIS MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN INTO THE SHALLOW AIR MASS FOR THE THREAT OF SNOW AND ICE FROM AR/SRN MO INTO WRN KY/TN AND NRN MS/AL. THE GUIDANCE IS RATHER UNANIMOUS ON MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE EXACT LOCATION IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER ANY FROZEN PRECIP IN THIS AREA WILL CAUSE ISSUES.

MUSHER
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
239. ClimateChange
3:37 AM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 234. TimTheWxMan:




With a highly amplified jet stream due to a blocking high over Cali, it's unusually warm (and dry) out west and pretty cold in the eastern half of the country.


Just unusual because we've seen worse blocking patterns in recent years, like 2009-2010, when it really didn't get that cold. There was a lot of snow in places like DC but the cold was way overhyped. The last two winters have been totally different. The Great Lakes had been gradually trending toward ice-free winters over the past 40 years of satellite observations, and the last two years have completely bucked that trend with near record ice coverage.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
238. Chucktown
3:37 AM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 228. Naga5000:



I would "blame" it on the temperature of the air, after all Anchorage is warming at the rate of about 1.18 C per century, but then again I'm not into perpetuating conspiracy theories about faulty equipment and UHI since those things are checked and adjusted for.





Wow, did you hear that swoosh right over your head. C'mon man !!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
237. beell
3:20 AM GMT on February 18, 2015
Some severe chances apparent this weekend. ARKLATX on Saturday. Perhaps a better chance over SE Louisiana, southern sections of MS/AL into western FL on Saturday Sunday. Underneath 50-70 knots of broad, cyclonic mid-level southwesterly flow and CAPE AOA 1000 J/kg. An extra day of Gulf returns and a pre-frontal surface trough across this area.

Wind profiles mainly parallel to the boundary so a squall line/wind threat as the main convective mode.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
236. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:20 AM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 229. ClimateChange:



I don't know. It seemed like in past blocking episodes it didn't get all that cold. Was mostly hype. But something changed last winter and this winter. We're seeing record cold. That shouldn't be possible with today's globally warmed atmosphere.

it is happening
its cold air displacement from abnormal jet patterns
and warm areas over the high north warmer waters under the ice
causing air too find new colder areas to settle into
trying to establish new cold core regions

maybe just a guess
its climate change and every region on the globe
is experiencing changes to there patterns
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather