Are We Entering a New Period of Rapid Global Warming?

By: Bob Henson , 5:04 PM GMT on February 24, 2015

Residents of New England may understandably look back at 2015 as the year of their never-ending winter. For the planet as a whole, though, this year could stand out most for putting to rest the “hiatus”— the 15-year slowdown in atmospheric warming that gained intense scrutiny by pundits, scientists, and the public. While interesting in its own right, the hiatus garnered far more attention than it deserved as a purported sign that future global warming would be much less than expected. The slowdown was preceded by almost 20 years of dramatic global temperature rise, and with 2014 having set a new global record high, there are signs that another decade-plus period of intensified atmospheric warming may be at our doorstep.

The most compelling argument for a renewed surge in global air temperature is rooted in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This index tracks the fingerprint of sea surface temperature (SST) across the Pacific north of 20°N. A closely related index, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), covers a larger swath of the entire Pacific. Both the PDO and IPO capture back-and-forth swings in the geography of Pacific SSTs that affect the exchange of heat between ocean and atmosphere (see Figure 1). We’ll use PDO as shorthand for both indexes in the following discussion.

The PDO typically leans toward a positive or negative state for more than a decade at a time. The positive phase, which features warmer-than-average SSTs along the U.S. West Coast, was dominant from the mid-1970s to the late 1990s. The PDO then flipped to a negative phase between about 1999 and 2013, with cooler-than-average SSTs along the West Coast. Figure 2 shows that even when a particular mode is favored, the PDO can still flip back to its opposite mode for periods of a few months or so.


Figure 1. Departures from average sea-surface temperature (degrees C) and wind (arrows) that typically prevail when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in its positive mode (left) and negative mode (right). Image credit: University of Washington.


It’s not clear exactly what drives the PDO, but in some ways it can be viewed as a geographically expanded version of the SST patterns created by El Niño and La Niña, averaged over a longer time period. (See Figure 2.) It’s well-established that El Niño can raise global temperature for a few months by several tenths of a degree Celsius, as warm water spreads over the eastern tropical Pacific and mixes with the overlying atmosphere. Likewise, La Niña can act to pull down global average temperature, as cooler-than-average water extends further west than usual across the tropical Pacific. The PDO mirrors these trends, but over longer periods. When the PDO is positive, there are more El Niño and fewer La Niña events, and heat stored in the ocean tends to be spread across a larger surface area, allowing it to enter the atmosphere more easily. When the PDO is negative, SSTs are below average across a larger area, and global air temperatures tend to be lower.


Figure 2. Typical warm and cool anomalies in sea-surface temperature during positive PDO years (left) and El Niño years (right). The patterns are similar, though with differences in intensity over some regions. The anomalies are reversed for negative PDO and La Niña years. Image credit: University of Washington Climate Impacts Group.


Figure 3 shows a striking connection between favored PDO modes (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). The vast majority of atmospheric warming over the last century occurred during positive PDO phases, with negative PDOs tending to result in flat temperature trends. It’s easy to see how an atmospheric warming “hiatus” could occur during a negative PDO phase.


Figure 3. PDO values (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). Gray shading indicates positive PDO periods, when atmospheric warming was most evident. The NOAA PDO values shown here vary slightly from those discussed in the article, which are calculated by the University of Washington. Image credit: Jerimiah Brown, Weather Underground. Data sources:NOAA (top) and NOAA/NCDC (bottom).


From the AMS meeting
The hiatus was discussed at length in a series of talks during the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society last month in Phoenix. Jerry Meehl, from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (my former employer), gave a whirlwind 15-minute overview of hiatus-oriented research conducted over the last six years. Meehl’s talk can be viewed online. More than 20 papers have studied the hiatus and its links to the PDO/IPO, according to Matthew England (University of New South Wales). Most of the flattening of global temperature during the hiatus can be traced to cooler-than-average conditions over the eastern tropical Pacific, which pulled down global averages. An emerging theme is that natural, or internal, variability in the tropical Pacific can explain at least half of the hiatus. NCAR’s Clara Deser presented new modeling evidence along these lines (see video online). Other factors may be involved as well, including a series of weak volcanic eruptions that could explain a small part of the hiatus, according to a recent analysis by Ben Santer (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory).

One crucial point is that global warming didn’t “stop” during the hiatus: the world’s oceans actually gained heat at an accelerated pace. Trade winds blew more strongly from east to west across the Pacific, consistent with the tendency toward La Niña conditions, as described in this open-access article by NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo. Over parts of the central tropical Pacific, trade winds averaged about 3 mph stronger during 1999-2012 compared to 1976-1988. These speeds are higher than for any previous hiatus on record, bolstering the idea that other factors may have joined this negative PDO/IPO phase. The faster trade winds encouraged upwelling of cooler water to the east and helped deepen and strengthen the warm pool to the west—enough, in fact, to raise sea level around the Philippines by as much as 8 inches. Other parts of the deep ocean warmed as well. A new study led by Dean Roemmich (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) maps the areas of greatest ocean heating from 2006 to 2013 and finds that significant warming extended to depths of greater than 6600 feet.

What next for the PDO?
The PDO index, as calculated at the University of Washington, scored positive values during every month in 2014, the first such streak since 2003. By December it reached +2.51, the largest positive value for any December in records that go back to 1900. The January value from UW was 2.45, again a monthly record. (NOAA calculates its own PDO values through a closely related methodology.)

Because the PDO can flip modes for a year or more within its longer-term cycle, we don’t yet know whether a significant shift to a positive PDO phase has begun. If trade winds weaken throughout this year, and positive PDO values persist, that’ll be strong evidence that a new cycle is indeed under way. The last time we saw a two-year streak of positive values was in 1992-93. If this occurs, and assuming no spikes in major volcanic activity, we could expect greater rises in global temperature over the next 10 to 15 years than we’ve seen during the hiatus. In addition, we should watch for El Niño to make its presence known more often.

“I am inclined to think the hiatus is over, mainly based on the PDO index change,” NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth told me. While Matthew England isn’t ready to offer such a prediction, he emphasized that any post-hiatus global temperature rise is likely to be fairly rapid. Trenberth also commented on an interesting NOAA analysis (see Figure 4): “If one takes the global mean temperature from 1970 on, everything fits a linear trend quite well except 1998.”


Figure 4. When looking at global temperature over a full PDO cycle (1970s to 2010s), the overall rise becomes evident, despite the flattening observed in the last 15 years. Image credit: NOAA.


A record-strong El Niño occurred in 1998, providing an unusually powerful boost to global temperature and fueling years of subsequent declarations that “global warming stopped in 1998.” The record warmth of 2014 made it clear that global warming has no intention of stopping, and the next few years are likely to reinforce that point. Nevertheless, snowbound New Englanders, and millions of other easterners now dealing with record cold for so late in the year, may be wondering why eastern North America has seen so much cold and snow in the past few winters--especially this one--and how long that climatic quirk might continue. Stay tuned for a separate post on that topic.

Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Getting some decent sleet in Atlanta currently.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 434. sar2401:

Holy cow. There's an unorganized but pretty powerful pack of storms that are only about 30 miles west of me right now. Stroke count is now starting approach 50, which is starting to get significant. These cells are moving like rockets, with some cells moving at 93 knots. Whoops, first cell just hit. Hardly any wind but a rain rate of 1.25" per hour and 0.22" already. No thunder that I've heard yet.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
In the least surprising news of the day, the 12Z GFS shows virtually no rain for C FL through 240 hours. I don’t know if the GFS is having accuracy issues with other areas, but it consistently shows little to no rain for C FL, when we have had a very wet start to 2015. It’s getting to the point where my go to model to see what’s happening in the short term is the HRRR. That model has done well lately, I wish there was a way Levi could add it to his site. I won’t pretend to have any idea what is involved in that though.
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Quoting 433. DCSwithunderscores:



Heat stress is another factor. Although warmer conditions can increase crop yields in some areas, they can reduce yields in others. Warming is expected to result in a net reduction in crop yields. Then there is the possibility of an increase in precipitation extremes (drought and flood) adversely affecting crop yields.


Beyond that, growing zones have been expanding northward. Eventually we run out of adequate light and soil to effectively maintain current production.

I've stated time and time again, that I believe our largest issue will be access to fresh water. I have no doubt we are resilient enough to deal with increases in just temperature and food stresses with minor issues in the short to longer term, when we start running low on fresh water a lot of crap will hit the proverbial fan. I don't think people truly understand all the things we use fresh water for beyond drinking and watering crops.
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Quoting 434. sar2401:

Holy cow. There's an unorganized but pretty powerful pack of storms that are only about 30 miles west of me right now. Stroke count is now starting approach 50, which is starting to get significant. These cells are moving like rockets, with some cells moving at 93 knots. Whoops, first cell just hit. Hardly any wind but a rain rate of 1.25" per hour and 0.22" already. No thunder that I've heard yet.


Stay safe Sar, this blog would collapse without you. :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 434. sar2401:

Holy cow. There's an unorganized but pretty powerful pack of storms that are only about 30 miles west of me right now. Stroke count is now starting approach 50, which is starting to get significant. These cells are moving like rockets, with some cells moving at 93 knots. Whoops, first cell just hit. Hardly any wind but a rain rate of 1.25" per hour and 0.22" already. No thunder that I've heard yet.


The pack of storms near Auburn? That looks nasty on radar.
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Quoting 430. sar2401:

yeah, and the exact track of the low, which we still don't know with confidence, is going to have a big effect on that. 25 miles further south and I'd be under the gun. Passing tight over me and in Georgia probably means just some rain. That's one of the reasons models are absolutely worthless right now. All we can do is to keep sending up balloons and keep and eye on the upstream observations. About two hours before the low gets in the area, I'll have a pretty good idea if the 25 mile jog will occur or not. This is pretty common with these lows coming out of old Mexico. The models can usually pick up on the low formation and an approximate path east - and that's about it. It's one of the reasons I just have to chuckle at people here who look at models seven days out and think they know how it will really affect their area.


FWIW, the latest HRRR model shows the low crossing right at the AL/FL border when it hits land.
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Holy cow. There's an unorganized but pretty powerful pack of storms that are only about 30 miles west of me right now. Stroke count is now starting approach 50, which is starting to get significant. These cells are moving like rockets, with some cells moving at 93 knots. Whoops, first cell just hit. Hardly any wind but a rain rate of 1.25" per hour and 0.22" already. No thunder that I've heard yet.
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Quoting 424. Naga5000:

Mass agricultural production is not done in a greenhouse. While many species of plants do receive increased growth by way of CO2, they are limited by nutrient and water requirements. Recent research shows that staples of modern mass agriculture such as wheat rice, and soybeans may be negatively impacted by increased CO2, I'll let the scientists do some speaking here:

"It has also been found that excess CO2 can make certain agricultural plants less nutritious for human and animal consumption. Zhu 2005, a three-year FACE study, concluded that a 10% decrease in the protein content of rice is expected at 550 ppm, with decreases in iron and zinc contents also found. Similarly, Högy et al. 2009, also a FACE study at 550 ppm, found a 7% drop in protein content for wheat, along with decreased amino acid and iron content. Somewhat ironically, this reduction in nutrient content is partially caused by the very increase in growth rates that CO2 encourages in C3 plants, since rapid growth leaves less time for nutrient accumulation.

Increased CO2 has been shown to lead to lower production of certain chemical defense mechanisms in soybeans, making them more vulnerable to pest attack and diseases (Zavala et al. 2008 and Eastburn et al. 2010). Other studies (e.g. Peñuelas and Estiarte 1999) have shown production of phenolics and tannins to increase under enhanced CO2 in some species, as well as many alkaloids (Ziska et al. 2005), all of which may have potential consequences on the health of primary consumers. The decreased nutritional value in combination with increased tannin and phenolic production has been linked to decreased growth rate and conversion efficiency of some herbivores, as well as an increase in their relative demand and consumption of plants (Stiling and Cornelissen 2007).

Furthermore, many “cyanogenic” species—plants which naturally produce cyanide, and which include 60% of all known plant species—have been found to increase their cyanide production in an enhanced CO2 world. This may have a benefit to the plants who use cyanide to inhibit overconsumption by pests and animals, but it may in turn reduce their safety as a food supply for both humans and animals (Gleadow et al., 2009a and Gleadow et al. 2009b)."

Beyond that, the increases needed in fresh water and limiting nutrients will act as a counterbalance to many positives to be gained from an increased CO2 level. Many species of weeds have been shown to become more resistant to herbicides in high CO2 environments, as well as increases in bacteria and fungal growth which impact plant health and nutrient storage....

CO2 is good for your greenhouse, mass agriculture is not done in greenhouses.


Heat stress is another factor. Although warmer conditions can increase crop yields in some areas, they can reduce yields in others. Warming is expected to result in a net reduction in crop yields. Then there is the possibility of an increase in precipitation extremes (drought and flood) adversely affecting crop yields.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
All the 12z models have shifted west with the low and precipitation, with the exception of the UKMET which had the correct solution days ago. It's amazing to see how much the models have trended just within a 36 hour period.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Boston continues to inch closer and closer to its snowiest winter on record.



One thing's for sure. Boston gets a lot of snow. A 62" season won't even break into the top 20 snowfalls.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:

I just pulled off the national site but the low level jet is probably helping the low along relatively quickly (as noted below in the bouy reading south of Mobile); I suspect that someone in North Florida is going to get a pretty strong squall line coming through later this evening but the exact timing and location of the strongest impacts are yet to be seen; there will be relative calm if the center of the low passes directly over you, but the outer fringes may get a little hairy especially where the warm side of the frontal boundry merges with the cooler north side later this evening somewhere.
yeah, and the exact track of the low, which we still don't know with confidence, is going to have a big effect on that. 25 miles further south and I'd be under the gun. Passing tight over me and in Georgia probably means just some rain. That's one of the reasons models are absolutely worthless right now. All we can do is to keep sending up balloons and keep and eye on the upstream observations. About two hours before the low gets in the area, I'll have a pretty good idea if the 25 mile jog will occur or not. This is pretty common with these lows coming out of old Mexico. The models can usually pick up on the low formation and an approximate path east - and that's about it. It's one of the reasons I just have to chuckle at people here who look at models seven days out and think they know how it will really affect their area.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Boston continues to inch closer and closer to its snowiest winter on record.

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Quoting 421. fillmup:

It's obvious that the earth is warmer within recent history, however, hasn't the climate temperature fluctuated cyclically over millions of years? There are warm ups and cool downs, ice ages, droughts, heat waves and what have you. Even Antarctica was once sub-tropical. Attempting to put the blame on mankind's contribution to pollution is a mere drop in the bucket. Thinking that we can or even have the capability to modify our global climate is ridiculous.


Earth is currently warming about 60 X faster than would be expected from natural causes. This is too fast for a lot of flora and fauna to adapt. Earth has been much warmer in the past, but conditions at such times weren't necessarily favorable to humans, let alone to human civilization.

Past warmer conditions have resulted from greater atmospheric CO2 content. Humans are increasing the atmospheric CO2 concentration to levels not seen in millions of years.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hi abroad - your weather still is a rich source for winter tales, hmmm?

Tunnelling into the snow in Canada to find the car
BBC weather video, 25 February 2015 Last updated at 16:03
It took one man six hours to tunnel his way through the snow to find his car after a massive storm buried it in nearly three metres of snow. Meanwhile the deep freeze across the United States caused driving chaos as far south as Texas. BBC Weather's Helen Willets explains more on BBC World.

---------------------------------


Wheee! Mercedes driver has fun on Dallas ice! updated3:49 PM EST, Tue February 24, 2015: - Dallas man took his Mercedes SUV for a spin in an icy mall parking lot - TV news chopper flying overhead captured this video



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 391. sar2401:

I would agree about some posters but Opal is not one of them. He's trying to figure out the truth after being fed a line from other websites he frequents. He's indicative of a lot of people in the world right now. We can either try to share our knowledge or we can do what you apparently like to do. Even dogs don't generally learn anything from beatings except it's best to bite first and ask questions later.
I dunno, Sar. If a poster has been around a long time and still posts that he thinks AGW is a conspiracy, I have a hard time thinking that poster is (a) here to learn and (b) being honest about his intentions. I'm not here to dole out beatings - the aforementioned posters do a fantastic job of that in the intellectual sense. I may give an occasional bravo to a good post (usually done with the plus button) or a cocked-eyebrow bit of snark to a poorly thought-out post. If I find a user to consistently post garbage, I put them on the ignore list.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting fillmup:
It's obvious that the earth is warmer within recent history, however, hasn't the climate temperature fluctuated cyclically over millions of years? There are warm ups and cool downs, ice ages, droughts, heat waves and what have you. Even Antarctica was once sub-tropical. Attempting to put the blame on mankind's contribution to pollution is a mere drop in the bucket. Thinking that we can or even have the capability to modify our global climate is ridiculous.
Yes, it was - about 55 million years ago. The levels of carbon dioxide was about 800 ppm, about double of what we have today. Do you think there's any relationship between our rising level of carbon dioxide and the melting of some glaciers in the southern hemisphere? The Antarctic has never been that warm since that interglacial period. Do you think there are any implications for the rest of the planet if Antarctica gets that warm again?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Mass agricultural production is not done in a greenhouse. While many species of plants do receive increased growth by way of CO2, they are limited by nutrient and water requirements. Recent research shows that staples of modern mass agriculture such as wheat rice, and soybeans may be negatively impacted by increased CO2, I'll let the scientists do some speaking here:

"It has also been found that excess CO2 can make certain agricultural plants less nutritious for human and animal consumption. Zhu 2005, a three-year FACE study, concluded that a 10% decrease in the protein content of rice is expected at 550 ppm, with decreases in iron and zinc contents also found. Similarly, Högy et al. 2009, also a FACE study at 550 ppm, found a 7% drop in protein content for wheat, along with decreased amino acid and iron content. Somewhat ironically, this reduction in nutrient content is partially caused by the very increase in growth rates that CO2 encourages in C3 plants, since rapid growth leaves less time for nutrient accumulation.

Increased CO2 has been shown to lead to lower production of certain chemical defense mechanisms in soybeans, making them more vulnerable to pest attack and diseases (Zavala et al. 2008 and Eastburn et al. 2010). Other studies (e.g. Peñuelas and Estiarte 1999) have shown production of phenolics and tannins to increase under enhanced CO2 in some species, as well as many alkaloids (Ziska et al. 2005), all of which may have potential consequences on the health of primary consumers. The decreased nutritional value in combination with increased tannin and phenolic production has been linked to decreased growth rate and conversion efficiency of some herbivores, as well as an increase in their relative demand and consumption of plants (Stiling and Cornelissen 2007).

Furthermore, many “cyanogenic” species—plants which naturally produce cyanide, and which include 60% of all known plant species—have been found to increase their cyanide production in an enhanced CO2 world. This may have a benefit to the plants who use cyanide to inhibit overconsumption by pests and animals, but it may in turn reduce their safety as a food supply for both humans and animals (Gleadow et al., 2009a and Gleadow et al. 2009b)."

Beyond that, the increases needed in fresh water and limiting nutrients will act as a counterbalance to many positives to be gained from an increased CO2 level. Many species of weeds have been shown to become more resistant to herbicides in high CO2 environments, as well as increases in bacteria and fungal growth which impact plant health and nutrient storage....

CO2 is good for your greenhouse, mass agriculture is not done in greenhouses.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
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First downgrade from Winter Storm Warning to Winter Weather Advisory in Alabama. This is on the south end of what was the WSW with 2-6 inches forecast at 3:36 am. Pretty consistent with the heavy snow line moving north and the south end getting a lot less than forecast. The addition of the sleet wording is new also.

ALZ025-027>029-034-260300-
/O.CAN.KBMX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150226T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KBMX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-150226T0600Z/
SHELBY-TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-BIBB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PELHAM...ALABASTER...TALLADEGA...
SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...CENTREVILLE
1033 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* TIMING...FROM NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT PM WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATION...BIBB...SHELBY...TALLADEGA...CLAY AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW TOTALS UP TO 1 INCH AND SLEET TOTALS UP TO
ONE HALF INCH.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
It's obvious that the earth is warmer within recent history, however, hasn't the climate temperature fluctuated cyclically over millions of years? There are warm ups and cool downs, ice ages, droughts, heat waves and what have you. Even Antarctica was once sub-tropical. Attempting to put the blame on mankind's contribution to pollution is a mere drop in the bucket. Thinking that we can or even have the capability to modify our global climate is ridiculous.
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Sabal minor palmettos look unhappy

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
jpsb - what would happen if you asked the instructors from the UMich course (from which you borrowed the CO2 graphic) to evaluate the content of your post? If what you got out of that course is what you posted, then they'd likely suggest a re-read through their course. Or, perhaps you haven't read through the course. It's actually a pretty good one, as far as introductory courses go.

If anyone is interested, it can be found here: University of Michigan, Global Change: The Science of Sustainability
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Looking at the flash loop (link below), I would guess that the low is probably due South of LA at the moment headed NE towards the Florida Panhandle:

Flash Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2 _floater_2&width=640&height=480&number _of_images_to_display=12


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Quoting 393. sar2401:

Looks like a lot of droopiness but probably no long term damage. Are you above freezing yet? If so, are seeing some ice melting? As long as we don't get another Arctic blast, which doesn't appear likely for the next week or so, those plants should recover. At least the roads are open and you have power, two of the things that leave first in a really bad ice storm.


It's been above 32 since about 10, it's raining icicles everywhere. There's some damaged trees I'll take photos of before I leave UNCW but that palmetto on the right took it pretty hard.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 412. sar2401:

Just don't try selling us those lots and you'll be OK. :-)



I plan on opening Orlando's first beach front bed and breakfast, the possibilities are limitless. :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Somebody should have put a bag over the groundhogs head so we could be out of this mess,cold and wet.
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Quoting 411. sar2401:

That map is over five hours old and the low is nowhere near south Texas. It seems that anything more than hour old is likely to be wrong today. Pretty fluid situation.

I just pulled off the national site but the low level jet is probably helping the low along relatively quickly (as noted below in the bouy reading south of Mobile); I suspect that someone in North Florida is going to get a pretty strong squall line coming through later this evening but the exact timing and location of the strongest impacts are yet to be seen; there will be relative calm if the center of the low passes directly over you, but the outer fringes may get a little hairy especially where the warm side of the frontal boundry merges with the cooler north side later this evening somewhere.
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Quoting ricderr:
We wouldn't put up with from someone constantly trying sell us a pyramid scheme...or ocean front lots in El Paso. :-0


ahhhh...but snce i live where everything is sand..... i tell people....i finally have beach front property...it's just that the ocean is hundreds of miles away
Just don't try selling us those lots and you'll be OK. :-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
That map is over five hours old and the low is nowhere near south Texas. It seems that anything more than hour old is likely to be wrong today. Pretty fluid situation.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
We wouldn't put up with from someone constantly trying sell us a pyramid scheme...or ocean front lots in El Paso. :-0


ahhhh...but snce i live where everything is sand..... i tell people....i finally have beach front property...it's just that the ocean is hundreds of miles away
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Quoting 406. washingtonian115:

Two inches pfft that's nothing compared to what we got Saturday


Better than nothing.
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Quoting LAbonbon:

SPC AC 251626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GA AND
NORTHWEST FL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF FL/AL/GA...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADOES
COULD OCCUR TONIGHT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
AND SOUTH GEORGIA.

...FL/GA...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX MOVING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OFF
THE LA COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...AND INTO SOUTHERN GA/NORTH FL OVERNIGHT.
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY OVER THE
LOOP CURRENT AND ONSHORE AFTER DARK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SMALL
AREA OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IN THIS REGION SHOW VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. ALSO...RECENT
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST A REASONABLE PROBABILITY OF
DISCRETE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST. THESE ITEMS HAVE RAISED
CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GA AND NORTHWEST
FL.

..HART/MOSIER.. 02/25/2015
I wondered if they were going to raise the risk level, although "slight" still sounds like it's less than"marginal" - but maybe that's just me. It also moves the risk area further north into my neck of the woods. So far, none of the cells look particularly impressive, but the storms seem to want to get organized into a line, and that's a little more concerning. Ruston and Shreveport are reporting snow now while Columbus MS is reporting ice pellets, the only station in the state reporting anything frozen. The frozen precipitation and extent of coverage is not developing as fast a s forecast. That may change later this afternoon. There are forecasters tomorrow that are going to look like heroes while others are going to look like goats. There must be a lot of nail chewing in the breakrooms today. :-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 399. Drakoen:

UKMET 12z came in wetter for DC. Looks like about two inches of snow to put on top of our existing glaciers.
Two inches pfft that's nothing compared to what we got Saturday
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 401. MoeHoward:

Long winter.
and just a little longer yet to go but not much longer few weeks or so
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403. jpsb
Quoting 356. SeriouslySushi:


Of course there are other factors that drive the climate. We know that. But the other known forcings aren't currently doing anything that would account for the warming, leaving increased greenhouse gas forcing as the obvious culprit.
Frankly I've always found the lukewarmist position more difficult to understand than greenhouse gas deniers, because basically you think that we can change the climate without really changing the climate. There's an acknowledgement of the risks that somehow still refuses to acknowledge the risks. And then you're left having to deny any possible connection between weather trends and warming trends, even though physically they only make sense, like the way people were insisting warmer ocean temps wouldn't effect coastal snowstorms at all.
It's like you understand the physics but are pretty much just counting on them failing to apply, or something.
I just don't understand.



From wiki

Runaway climate change or runaway global warming is hypothesized to follow a tipping point in the climate system, after accumulated climate change initiates a reinforcing positive feedback. This is thought to cause climate to rapidly change until it reaches a new stable condition.[1] These phrases may be used with reference to concerns about rapid global warming.[1][2] Some astronomers use the expression runaway greenhouse effect to describe a situation where the climate deviates catastrophically and permanently from the original state—as happened on Venus.[3][4]

Although these terms are rarely used in the peer-reviewed climatological literature,[5][6] that literature does use the similar phrase "runaway greenhouse effect", which refers specifically to climate changes that cause a planetary body's water to boil off.


The alarmist camp to various degrees predict that AGW could trigger "runaway" warming.

Well I am of the opinion that given enough time if something can happen it probably will happen. Has the Earth ever experienced runaway warming? The paleoclimate record says no.

Here is 500 million years of CO2 levels as you can see we are near an historic low for atmospheric CO2

Image from the University of Michigan


Thus I think the danger of "runaway warming" is very unlikely. A catastrophic impact event is much more worrisome.

However over similar time period has the Earth ever experienced "runaway cooling" well yes.

Snowball Earth


Ice ages image from Utah Geologic Survey


So why worry about something that has not happen in the last billion years when something just as bad (for us humans) has happen many many times?

Is there a benefit to higher levels of atmospheric CO2?

It is well known that a CO2 level in the garden's air between 700 and 900 ppm improves crop development and yield. Most plants grown for their beautiful flowers or foliage optimally develop at about 800 ppm. Roses are distinctive as they require about 1200 ppm in carbon dioxide concentration for best results. For many fruits and vegetables, the ideal CO2 level in the garden should be at least between 1000 and 1200 ppm.

source http://www.novabiomatique.com/hydroponics-systems/ plant-555-gardening-with-co2-explained.cfm

It is also worth noted that the last interglacial the Eemian was warmer then today and nothing terrible happened.


from the University of Copenhagen
So far the ice cores can only provide us a glimpse into the Eemian warm period. But we can already tell that Eemian climate was significantly warmer than the climate of the current Holocene interglacial - probably about 5°C warmer. As ice from the Eemian period (albeit disturbed) has been found at all drill sites, we also know that the Greenland ice sheet did not melt away entirely during the warmth of the Eemian. Close analysis of δ18O values in the Eemian ice does indeed suggest that the Eemian Greenland ice sheet was not dramatically smaller than today.

So to sum up, I do not see a little more warmth and a little more CO2 as a terrible unprecedented thing. Plus there nothing the USA can do about it anyway. China and other developing nations are not going cut their CO2 emissions any time soon.



So presented with an unfix-able very unlikely to exist problem I choose to not worry about it.


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"Bombagenesis" is not an issue with the low developing in the Gulf today but pressures are starting to fall rapidly due South of Mobile:


Station 42012
NDBC
Location:
 30.065N 87.555W
Date: Wed, 25 Feb 2015 15:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 2.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 4 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (64°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.82 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 50.5 F

Water Temperature: 61.5 F

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Long winter.
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Quoting SouthTampa:
We should also have a minus sign here.
I'm generally quiet, as I mentioned. But, when I write, it's to the point. I really don't think there's a reason to hold back when a comment is out of line.
Actually, their posts are often so thorough and succinct, that one could say it's pwnage at it's finest. You don't have to taunt to be dominate. (Although, I agree, in the gaming sense, pwnage involves an endzone celebration).
There is a minus sign in the Classic version (classic.wunderground.com) which is one of many reasons I use it. As I said, there are several regulars here that deserve a good thumping, but simply banning them leaves a lot more time to discuss weather and science. It also helps if you know a poster well enough to make a judgement if he falls in the thumping camp. Opal has beliefs that aren't scientifically sound but he's indicated he's willing to listen and learn. He's been around long enough that I think he's sincere. And they are, after all, beliefs. I've never found, for example, that massive pwnage will convince a fundamentalist of any religion that he's an idiot. End zone celebrations are fun...in the end zone, and even there, you'd get a hefty fine if it went on too long.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
UKMET 12z came in wetter for DC. Looks like about two inches of snow to put on top of our existing glaciers.
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SPC AC 251626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GA AND
NORTHWEST FL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF FL/AL/GA...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADOES
COULD OCCUR TONIGHT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
AND SOUTH GEORGIA.

...FL/GA...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX MOVING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OFF
THE LA COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...AND INTO SOUTHERN GA/NORTH FL OVERNIGHT.
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY OVER THE
LOOP CURRENT AND ONSHORE AFTER DARK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SMALL
AREA OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IN THIS REGION SHOW VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. ALSO...RECENT
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST A REASONABLE PROBABILITY OF
DISCRETE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST. THESE ITEMS HAVE RAISED
CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GA AND NORTHWEST
FL.

..HART/MOSIER.. 02/25/2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Got some lunchtime action heading our way..
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Quoting ricderr:
I don't think the goal here is to leetspeak another member. It's about education. Snarking might be good for the gaming world, but not here.

and of course it is against the rules here in the good doc's blog...but sometimes...you just have to tell an idiot they are an idiot....even if it means a ban
Yes, I've done it also. I just try not to make it my normal means of communication. A quick ban on people who are just trolling is really what's needed, and a lifetime ban on the worst offenders would help even more. We spend far too much time responding to the same spam from the same spammers. We wouldn't put up with from someone constantly trying sell us a pyramid scheme...or ocean front lots in El Paso. :-0
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Of note to the workshop 2nd day afternoon schedule,

Due to the incoming weather and the Winter Storm Warning for the Area, the Emg Mgrs and other needed members will be going to their respective roles and offices to integrate the plan for Va..and other areas attending as well..

Hampton, VA
NorthEnd-HuntingtonHeights | Change Station
Active Advisory: Winter Storm Warning Active Notice: Public Information Statement


Newport News/Hampton Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Winter Storm Warning
Statement as of 4:30 AM EST on February 25, 2015

... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM
EST Thursday...

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for... which is in effect from 7 PM this evening to
1 PM EST Thursday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.


* Locations: south central and southeast Virginia.

* Hazards: mainly snow.

* Accumulations: 4 to 7 inches... locally higher amounts possible.

* Timing: snow... possibly mixed with rain at the onset... arrives
by this evening then quickly transitions to all snow and becomes
heavy at times overnight. The snow is expected to taper off to
light snow showers Thursday morning... with only minimal additional
accumulation expected after 7 am.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow are forecast
that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an emergency. If
you must travel... keep an extra flashlight... food... and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 388. sar2401:

That is why we have the plus sign here.
We should also have a minus sign here.

I don't know you or your normal method of communication
I'm generally quiet, as I mentioned. But, when I write, it's to the point. I really don't think there's a reason to hold back when a comment is out of line.

but Xyrus and Naga generally get their points across with a minimum amount of pwnage.
Actually, their posts are often so thorough and succinct, that one could say it's pwnage at it's finest. You don't have to taunt to be dominate. (Although, I agree, in the gaming sense, pwnage involves an endzone celebration).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:
Had a class cancelled today so I thought I'd go around and shoot a few photos at UNCW





Looks like a lot of droopiness but probably no long term damage. Are you above freezing yet? If so, are seeing some ice melting? As long as we don't get another Arctic blast, which doesn't appear likely for the next week or so, those plants should recover. At least the roads are open and you have power, two of the things that leave first in a really bad ice storm.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather