Are We Entering a New Period of Rapid Global Warming?

By: Bob Henson , 5:04 PM GMT on February 24, 2015

Residents of New England may understandably look back at 2015 as the year of their never-ending winter. For the planet as a whole, though, this year could stand out most for putting to rest the “hiatus”— the 15-year slowdown in atmospheric warming that gained intense scrutiny by pundits, scientists, and the public. While interesting in its own right, the hiatus garnered far more attention than it deserved as a purported sign that future global warming would be much less than expected. The slowdown was preceded by almost 20 years of dramatic global temperature rise, and with 2014 having set a new global record high, there are signs that another decade-plus period of intensified atmospheric warming may be at our doorstep.

The most compelling argument for a renewed surge in global air temperature is rooted in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This index tracks the fingerprint of sea surface temperature (SST) across the Pacific north of 20°N. A closely related index, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), covers a larger swath of the entire Pacific. Both the PDO and IPO capture back-and-forth swings in the geography of Pacific SSTs that affect the exchange of heat between ocean and atmosphere (see Figure 1). We’ll use PDO as shorthand for both indexes in the following discussion.

The PDO typically leans toward a positive or negative state for more than a decade at a time. The positive phase, which features warmer-than-average SSTs along the U.S. West Coast, was dominant from the mid-1970s to the late 1990s. The PDO then flipped to a negative phase between about 1999 and 2013, with cooler-than-average SSTs along the West Coast. Figure 2 shows that even when a particular mode is favored, the PDO can still flip back to its opposite mode for periods of a few months or so.


Figure 1. Departures from average sea-surface temperature (degrees C) and wind (arrows) that typically prevail when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in its positive mode (left) and negative mode (right). Image credit: University of Washington.


It’s not clear exactly what drives the PDO, but in some ways it can be viewed as a geographically expanded version of the SST patterns created by El Niño and La Niña, averaged over a longer time period. (See Figure 2.) It’s well-established that El Niño can raise global temperature for a few months by several tenths of a degree Celsius, as warm water spreads over the eastern tropical Pacific and mixes with the overlying atmosphere. Likewise, La Niña can act to pull down global average temperature, as cooler-than-average water extends further west than usual across the tropical Pacific. The PDO mirrors these trends, but over longer periods. When the PDO is positive, there are more El Niño and fewer La Niña events, and heat stored in the ocean tends to be spread across a larger surface area, allowing it to enter the atmosphere more easily. When the PDO is negative, SSTs are below average across a larger area, and global air temperatures tend to be lower.


Figure 2. Typical warm and cool anomalies in sea-surface temperature during positive PDO years (left) and El Niño years (right). The patterns are similar, though with differences in intensity over some regions. The anomalies are reversed for negative PDO and La Niña years. Image credit: University of Washington Climate Impacts Group.


Figure 3 shows a striking connection between favored PDO modes (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). The vast majority of atmospheric warming over the last century occurred during positive PDO phases, with negative PDOs tending to result in flat temperature trends. It’s easy to see how an atmospheric warming “hiatus” could occur during a negative PDO phase.


Figure 3. PDO values (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). Gray shading indicates positive PDO periods, when atmospheric warming was most evident. The NOAA PDO values shown here vary slightly from those discussed in the article, which are calculated by the University of Washington. Image credit: Jerimiah Brown, Weather Underground. Data sources:NOAA (top) and NOAA/NCDC (bottom).


From the AMS meeting
The hiatus was discussed at length in a series of talks during the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society last month in Phoenix. Jerry Meehl, from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (my former employer), gave a whirlwind 15-minute overview of hiatus-oriented research conducted over the last six years. Meehl’s talk can be viewed online. More than 20 papers have studied the hiatus and its links to the PDO/IPO, according to Matthew England (University of New South Wales). Most of the flattening of global temperature during the hiatus can be traced to cooler-than-average conditions over the eastern tropical Pacific, which pulled down global averages. An emerging theme is that natural, or internal, variability in the tropical Pacific can explain at least half of the hiatus. NCAR’s Clara Deser presented new modeling evidence along these lines (see video online). Other factors may be involved as well, including a series of weak volcanic eruptions that could explain a small part of the hiatus, according to a recent analysis by Ben Santer (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory).

One crucial point is that global warming didn’t “stop” during the hiatus: the world’s oceans actually gained heat at an accelerated pace. Trade winds blew more strongly from east to west across the Pacific, consistent with the tendency toward La Niña conditions, as described in this open-access article by NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo. Over parts of the central tropical Pacific, trade winds averaged about 3 mph stronger during 1999-2012 compared to 1976-1988. These speeds are higher than for any previous hiatus on record, bolstering the idea that other factors may have joined this negative PDO/IPO phase. The faster trade winds encouraged upwelling of cooler water to the east and helped deepen and strengthen the warm pool to the west—enough, in fact, to raise sea level around the Philippines by as much as 8 inches. Other parts of the deep ocean warmed as well. A new study led by Dean Roemmich (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) maps the areas of greatest ocean heating from 2006 to 2013 and finds that significant warming extended to depths of greater than 6600 feet.

What next for the PDO?
The PDO index, as calculated at the University of Washington, scored positive values during every month in 2014, the first such streak since 2003. By December it reached +2.51, the largest positive value for any December in records that go back to 1900. The January value from UW was 2.45, again a monthly record. (NOAA calculates its own PDO values through a closely related methodology.)

Because the PDO can flip modes for a year or more within its longer-term cycle, we don’t yet know whether a significant shift to a positive PDO phase has begun. If trade winds weaken throughout this year, and positive PDO values persist, that’ll be strong evidence that a new cycle is indeed under way. The last time we saw a two-year streak of positive values was in 1992-93. If this occurs, and assuming no spikes in major volcanic activity, we could expect greater rises in global temperature over the next 10 to 15 years than we’ve seen during the hiatus. In addition, we should watch for El Niño to make its presence known more often.

“I am inclined to think the hiatus is over, mainly based on the PDO index change,” NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth told me. While Matthew England isn’t ready to offer such a prediction, he emphasized that any post-hiatus global temperature rise is likely to be fairly rapid. Trenberth also commented on an interesting NOAA analysis (see Figure 4): “If one takes the global mean temperature from 1970 on, everything fits a linear trend quite well except 1998.”


Figure 4. When looking at global temperature over a full PDO cycle (1970s to 2010s), the overall rise becomes evident, despite the flattening observed in the last 15 years. Image credit: NOAA.


A record-strong El Niño occurred in 1998, providing an unusually powerful boost to global temperature and fueling years of subsequent declarations that “global warming stopped in 1998.” The record warmth of 2014 made it clear that global warming has no intention of stopping, and the next few years are likely to reinforce that point. Nevertheless, snowbound New Englanders, and millions of other easterners now dealing with record cold for so late in the year, may be wondering why eastern North America has seen so much cold and snow in the past few winters--especially this one--and how long that climatic quirk might continue. Stay tuned for a separate post on that topic.

Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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From the Los Angeles Times:

Is drought the new normal for Southern California?
By GEOFFREY MOHAN
FEBRUARY 23, 2015 4:11 PM

Inreased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is altering Earth's most important atmospheric weather cell, drawing more moisture into the deep tropics and broadening areas of drought at higher latitudes, according to a new study.

The U.S. west, including Southern California, as well as swaths of subtropical Brazil that are suffering from acute drought lie in the heart of the decreased rainfall band shown in 33 climate scenarios run over a 140-year span, according to the study published online Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The study shows a clear global-warming signal in the changed water cycle brought on by a "deep tropical squeeze" in the Hadley circulation, a massive convection-driven cell extending from Earth's equator toward the planet's mid-latitudes.

“We are finding the region of drying exactly coincides with the places where we are now seeing this worldwide drought and wildfire happening," said University of Maryland atmospheric scientist William Lau, lead author of the study. "That includes the western U.S., southwestern U.S., Mexico, Brazil, southwestern Australia, southern Africa, northern Africa, the mid-Mediterranean region, southern Europe — all this is at the edge of the climatological sub-tropics that are being extended.”
Read Full Article
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting LAbonbon:

I've hit the lower end of the forecast for my area. I was going to comment on this yesterday, but you and Caleb were a bit tetchy so I held off. Here goes...I think you look at these a bit differently than I do. The 'X' you've mentioned is the maximum for that area. You are about 70 or so miles from there...it's not marking where you are...

(For reference the 1-3 day from the 22nd is below)

Your area is in the 2-2.5 range. Jedkins (I think) wrote up a comment when I was first a commenting member...where he talked about how best to interpret and use the maps. He said to not take the range I was in as gospel, especilally if the isohyets were close together. For example, I'm in the 1-1.25 range on the 3-day. However, I wouldn't have been surprised or disappointed in the forecast if I ended up in the 0.75-1 or in the 1.25-1.5 ranges. You are in the 2-2.5...using the same thought process, and looking to ranges that are relatively close to Eufala, you could easily end in the 1.75-2 or the 1.5-1.75 range.

I know this has been mentioned (by you, if memory serves), that people's eyes are drawn to the 'X'. If you viewed the QPF, w/ contours only, you would never have seen the 'X', and never focused on it. (I tried to find this map in the archives w/ contours only, but no luck.) By expecting to get the maximum, it's almost goes without saying that you will be unlikely to ever have that expectation met.



Anyway, just an explanation on how I look at these. If anything, I ignore the 'X', and focus on which contours are closest to me.

BTW, just got some thunder here. Wasn't expecting that.
There's a little more lightning showing up as the blob moves east. Only about 5 strokes per minute so not a lot but enough to startle people not expecting it. :-)

I really never expect that the bulls eye will verify. It is about 50 miles west of me but the small scale of the map makes it hard to tell accurately. As I've said many times, take those numbers and "X'es" off the map. They are distracting and serve no purpose except to highlight that the WPC is making a forecast that they don't have enough skill to make. What was important about the map was Eufaula is in the deep purple contour, which is 2.50" - I think. I'm slightly color blind and have a hard time distinguishing those fine color gradients. I'm now at 1.05" since Sunday. Not bad, but another inch at least before 6:00 pm tonight is needed before I'd call it in the ballpark. Below two inches isn't really the ballpark. What I think the WPC got right (and we'll see this evening if it did) is that an area of fairly substantial rain would occur between Sunday and Thursday. There must be a better way to communicate this than what the WPC is now using. I remember the hatched plots as well. I thought they were much more readable than what we have now. Unfortunately, graphic power progresses, bright young college grads who know that stuff backwards and forwards show up, and the old stuff gets put in the archives. Life is like that.

Big increase in lightning strokes since I started typing this. Up to about 12 a minute now. over 100 a minute is what I'd expect to see from a good line of storms but at least it's a little different than yet another batch of stratiform rain.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting jpsb:


Not at all, a luke warmest knows that CO2 is a green house gas and knows that the climate has been warming and knows that mankind is responsible for some of that warming. We just do not believe the IPCC computer models nor to we believe all the doom and gloom predictions coming from the alarmist camp. There are agents other than CO2 which drive climate.
Fear-based denial of AGW comes in many forms. Chief among these is rejecting not only the solid physics and chemistry that show that nearly every bit of the current warming is from fossil fuel emissions, but also the truth of what the continued pumping of four million tons per hour of CO2 into the atmosphere is doing, and is going to keep doing...
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Good Morning Folks. Still dreary, overcast, and cool in Tallahassee this morning (like yesterday) but not cold enough to break out my London Fog trenchcoat..................
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339. jpsb
Quoting 149. CarolinaHurricanes87:



So basically you're saying, "I don't know". If you don't know, why don't you just listen to scientists?... You know, the people whose job it is to figure out stuff like that?


Not at all, a luke warmest knows that CO2 is a green house gas and knows that the climate has been warming and knows that mankind is responsible for some of that warming. We just do not believe the IPCC computer models nor to we believe all the doom and gloom predictions coming from the alarmist camp. There are agents other than CO2 which drive climate.
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Quoting 312. HaoleboySurfEC:

Heard that theory on NPR yesterday. Interesting..and makes sense. I always wondered why the plague is basically nonexistent in Europe today. The rats are all still there.





geez you guys didn't you see ratatouille? it was the flea...

plus wasn't the blankets and bedding an issue?
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Quoting georgevandenberghe:


The dominant rat in the middle ages in Europe was the Black Rat, a roof and house dweller. It was displaced sometime later in the middle ages and after the Plague, by the Norway rat which is a burrowing ground and sewer dweller and thus has less close contact with humans. (From 1969 reading of Time Life science books.. why I still remember this is another question?)
I know squat about rats (Vis can probably help with that) but the fact that the plague outbreaks happened as increased seaborne commerce with the Far East was increasing at the same time would seem to indicate that the native rats or other rodents served as a reservoir for some period of time. I read the study but it's a little ...dense...and my brain isn't operating on dense too well this morning. The one thing I found puzzling was their using tree rings when the some of the events were occurring in the late 18th and early 19th century, when the records in Europe and the Far East were more than sufficient for the purposes of the study. I don't know, but I think I definitely need more coffee this morning. :-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 323. sar2401:

I'll take some of that if it manages to get here. I need 1.55" to get the WPC bulls eye to verify. So far, it's not looking hopeful. Still more lightning showing up just east of Beaumont. Not a whole lot but maybe enough to add something to this otherwise drippy day.

I've hit the lower end of the forecast for my area. I was going to comment on this yesterday, but you and Caleb were a bit tetchy so I held off. Here goes...I think you look at these a bit differently than I do. The 'X' you've mentioned is the maximum for that area. You are about 70 or so miles from there...it's not marking where you are...

(For reference the 1-3 day from the 22nd is below)

Your area is in the 2-2.5 range. Jedkins (I think) wrote up a comment when I was first a commenting member...where he talked about how best to interpret and use the maps. He said to not take the range I was in as gospel, especilally if the isohyets were close together. For example, I'm in the 1-1.25 range on the 3-day. However, I wouldn't have been surprised or disappointed in the forecast if I ended up in the 0.75-1 or in the 1.25-1.5 ranges. You are in the 2-2.5...using the same thought process, and looking to ranges that are relatively close to Eufala, you could easily end in the 1.75-2 or the 1.5-1.75 range.

I know this has been mentioned (by you, if memory serves), that people's eyes are drawn to the 'X'. If you viewed the QPF, w/ contours only, you would never have seen the 'X', and never focused on it. (I tried to find this map in the archives w/ contours only, but no luck.) By expecting to get the maximum, it's almost goes without saying that you will be unlikely to ever have that expectation met.



Anyway, just an explanation on how I look at these. If anything, I ignore the 'X', and focus on which contours are closest to me.

BTW, just got some thunder here. Wasn't expecting that.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 330. Drakoen:



The models have trended more favorablly for us this morning and I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight shift northwest with the precipitation shield if the trend continues.
The mets aren't showing much for us.We'll just have to see how far south the cold air mass goes.Mother has a appointment tomorrow morning.
Quoting 327. georgevandenberghe:



I am also skeptical we will scrape through this one with less than an inch in DC metro. Yet another round of school delays. My hunch is a few inches of powder in College Park.

We had a rare Winter anomaly today. No school delays.


Well D.C hasn't had as much as VA and MD.It'll be rude for nature to just surprise us with snow.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 330. Drakoen:



The models have trended more favorablly for us this morning and I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight shift northwest with the precipitation shield if the trend continues.

I'm all for a northwest shift in the precip. Would elevate my projected totals to 8-10 inches.
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Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


The geography of NC doesn't help matters either. The way it sticks out tends to affect the northeastern part of the state for longer than down here. From what I've heard they mainly had to deal with snow west of the sounds and a wintry mix for the OBX.

And this has been a tricky event for the NWS to predict. Interesting forecaster's discussion opening:

TAKING A LOOK AT THE MORNING SOUNDING...WE CAME IN A BIT WARMER
ALOFT THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WE WERE DRIER AS WELL...SUGGESTING
THAT THE WET BULBING EFFECTS WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE FORECAST. THIS
IS NOTHING NEW...BUT MOST PROJECTIONS ALOFT STARTED AT ABOUT
+4...WHERE OUR SOUNDING CAME IN AT +8 AT 800MB. SINCE THERE IS
LITTLE TO NO COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES TO HELP OUT THE FROZEN
PRECIP...WE WILL HAVE TO RELY COMPLETELY ON DYNAMICAL OR MECHANICAL
COOLING...THAT IS FORCING COLDER AIR ALOFT DOWNWARD THROUGH HEAVY
PRECIP PROCESSES.

OTHERWISE...THE START TIME TO THE MOISTENING IS LOOKING QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED WHICH WILL POSSIBLY NOT ALLOW ALL THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SURFACE WARMING. BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN EET AT 35/23 AND BHM
32/22...AS BHM WOULD WET BULB SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING AS LONG
AS ANY PRE-PRECIP WARMING IS NOT TOO DRAMATIC.

WE ARE MOVING FROM THE MODELS TO OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL LAUNCH 1 OR
2 SPECIAL BALLOON RUNS TO TRY AND ASSESS MOVING FORWARD. FORECAST
WILL REMAIN THE SAME...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND COOLER
SURFACE WET BULBING...BE EXTREMELY WEARY OF SLEET AT THE ONSET AND
POSSIBLY SLEET FOR THE DURATION IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE WARNING. MY TWO RULES FROM HERE GOING FORWARD WILL BE TO
WATCH SURFACE AND 850MB TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...WHICH ARE BEST
ASSESSED THROUGH OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

LAST POINT...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXTREMELY HEAVY...CONVECTIVE IN
SOME CASES...SO THE DYNAMICAL PROCESSES WILL BE AMPED SIGNIFICANTLY
COMPARED TO OUR TYPICAL WINTER EVENTS. KEEP THIS IN MIND...THAT
COOLING THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR QUICKLY AND IT WILL LIKELY MODIFY ANY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS PROJECTED. USING FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE A
VERY DANGEROUS PROPOSITION FROM HERE FORWARD.
That's a good summary of the forecast challenges with this mess. The Boys are right about not worrying about the models now and moving to observations. As I've said before, this is a fairly warm event for a winter storm. Either wet bulbing will overcome the warmth, which is in almost the entire column, or it won't. If it does, there will be some heavy snow in the convective zones with cold enough temperatures. If not, it's going to mostly rain. The NWS has staked a lot of rep points on this one, and I expect we'll see updated AFD's every hour or so instead of the usual six to eight. Trying to stay a step ahead of actuals over the next 24 hours is going to be pretty exhausting for the forecasters.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Interesting to note that positive PDO from late 70s to mid 90s corresponds with a lot of epic arctic outbreaks superimposed on an overall warming trend. The negative period till 2013 corresponds with a period where there were fewer of these including the only decade that did not reach 0F at IAD or STL (the 2000s)
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Quoting 312. HaoleboySurfEC:

Heard that theory on NPR yesterday. Interesting..and makes sense. I always wondered why the plague is basically nonexistent in Europe today. The rats are all still there.





The dominant rat in the middle ages in Europe was the Black Rat, a roof and house dweller. It was displaced sometime later in the middle ages and after the Plague, by the Norway rat which is a burrowing ground and sewer dweller and thus has less close contact with humans. (From 1969 reading of Time Life science books.. why I still remember this is another question?)
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Quoting 306. washingtonian115:


MattRogers-CapitalWeatherGang
7:05 AM EST
Yeah, I think the NWS snow projections seem too low to me right now. The NAM (high and low-res ) from the 6z cycle seemed to be in the 2-4" range and the SREF mean is about 4" for DC.


The models have trended more favorablly for us this morning and I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight shift northwest with the precipitation shield if the trend continues.
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The first speaker today, the 2nd day of the Portlight, Hampton Roads, Va. "Getting it Right Workshop".

9:00am 10:15am Marcie Roth, Office of Disability Integration and Coordination for the Department of
Homeland Security / FEMA

Marcie was appointed by President Obama to her position in 2009. Since 2009, Marcie has led FEMA's commitment to meet the
access and functional needs of children and adults with disabilities in emergency and disaster preparedness, response, recovery and
mitigation. Marcie will give insight to how FEMA serves people with disabilities on a national level during emergencies and disasters.


LIVESTREAM
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
About the same here, just not as warm a soup. No mist or drizzle, just low clouds. Reminds of a morning in San Francisco. What little wind we have is easterly, so I hope we're not going to get a dreaded wedge setup, but it looks like we will. That means continued cold, clammy weather over the next 48 hours or so. The WPC thinks the low turns NE over the Panhandle and GA and then slides up the coast to the Carolinas, with more snow and ice for them. The cold fron does push down your way but it doesn't look like anything exceptional so far. I hate those fronts over Florida since they can sometimes produce unexpected results in the peninsula. We'll see what it brings you this time.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 306. washingtonian115:


MattRogers-CapitalWeatherGang
7:05 AM EST
Yeah, I think the NWS snow projections seem too low to me right now. The NAM (high and low-res ) from the 6z cycle seemed to be in the 2-4" range and the SREF mean is about 4" for DC.


I am also skeptical we will scrape through this one with less than an inch in DC metro. Yet another round of school delays. My hunch is a few inches of powder in College Park.

We had a rare Winter anomaly today. No school delays.

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Quoting 214. pottery:


Apologies for the late response to this, but the point I was trying to make was,.. yes, we know the reason for the cold, but do we understand the why we've got this 'wonkiness' in the JetStream ?
We can analyse the situation, but I'm not sure we can understand it as yet.

What's the cause?



There's been a few papers on the subject that basically boil down to the warmer temperatures/reduced sea ice have decreased the strength of the jet, allowing it to become more like a rubber band than a wall keeping arctic air locked up.

Here's a paper on the topic: Link
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As of the AM there's still power and the roads look to be fine, spotty black ice still a threat for another hour or so as we're right at freezing. Some limbs down, others snapped but still hanging off the tree. Looks to be about .20 to a quarter inch which is half of what came down last February. As others have stated the last ice storm and tropical storm conditions from two hurricanes in the past three years might have been a Darwinian test for the pine trees. This guy (the one I photographed sideways last time) isn't enjoying the ice but since it's younger and survived last year it's working up the strength.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting LAbonbon:
Morning, sar. Light, gentle rain here this morning.
I'll take some of that if it manages to get here. I need 1.55" to get the WPC bulls eye to verify. So far, it's not looking hopeful. Still more lightning showing up just east of Beaumont. Not a whole lot but maybe enough to add something to this otherwise drippy day.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Morning, sar. Light, gentle rain here this morning.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
321. vis0
I.  (Above of Dr. Masters' entry2923, in ¶8 L07) "The faster trade winds encouraged upwelling of cooler water to the east
and helped deepen and strengthen the warm pool to the west—enough, in
fact, to raise sea level around the Philippines by as much as 8 inches."  could this account for some seeing not as high water levels off the UsofA east coast as i read some WxU members described during their fishing off Florida?

(*play opening Twilight Zone music*)

II.  Anyone notice a 2:1* occurrence as to these PDOs.   Remember my clues as to when one see 2:1 ratios in natures' patterns, as how many fingers [sit Down SAR2401 this is not a sobriety test] of cooler vs. warmer & vice versa occur?  If they happen on both ends of a specific (as in PDO) catagory to observe "sounds"/resonances/vibrations from "space" and how that affects friction of fluids within a physical dimension, its a "Law of Galacsic" but then again i'm a nut.

When science eventually "reads" "sounds"/resonances/vibrations from black holes/q-Novaes, remember not to read them as plus/minus sine waves but inward / outward (squeezing,contracting / expanding). The Physical dimension reads the contracting as the energy being taken away thus cooler and expanding energy being added thus warmer, oh i must have hit my head on something   *clearing "cob webs"*    why am i writing Galacsics clues i stopped this last year forgive me for posting unknown sciences.

(*play closing Twilight Zone music*)

*2:1 as .666 to .333, the remainder .001 is for "nature" & "gawd" to communicate i.e. the trigger as to when to to recycle or switch this pattern ON/OFF.

PAY ATTENTION TO SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS & weather warnings.
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Quoting 317. sar2401:

Good morning, Vis, Bonnie, Matt, and the rest of the crew of the SS Minnow this morning. What are you seeing about this wind shift, Vis? We will get one sometime late today as the front passes but I'm not seeing anything else that looks unusual. the "marginal" severe storm threat looks pretty darn marginal today. It's a balmy 41 after a low to 39. The barometer has actually risen a bit compared to midnight. In looking at the surface map, the surface low in the Gulf is at 1008 mb and forecast to drop but not as rapidly as models predicted yesterday. The warm front is starting to move north and, I believe have enough warm available that a heavy snow threat looks really marginal for the Deep South. There has been a bit of lighting showing up right on the TX/LA border. I'm hoping at least a thunderstorm wanders through for me today since that's the closest to meteorological excitement I'm going to see. :-)




Good morning Sar. Another grey, soupy, dreary day here. When I went for my 5 AM run this morning, there was a persistent light mist the entire time, enough to bring my gauge to 0.04" for the day so far. It looks like the low is going to follow the exact same track as every other Gulf low has since November.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Guysgal:
Earthquake off Japam Link
Do you mean this this 5.9 that happened over six hours ago? Your link didn't work.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 264. sar2401:

Boy, it looks like there's still a little ice hanging on right on the northeast coast. Looks like it will be at least midnight before the rest finally leaves. Those lows that hang onto stalled fronts off the Carolinas coast are really tenacious.

I'm more than a little confused about the evolution this low tomorrow. This surface map issued at 0127z (which is about two hours ago) shows a pretty good 998 mb low wrapping up over northern Mexico with another 1006 mb low just over the border in New Mexico.



This is the prediction for 0600z, about three hours from now. What happened to the 998 mb low? Is the 1006 mb low the one that was over New Mexico? 998 mb lows don't usually vanish in the space of six hours.



This is for 1200z tomorrow, about 8.5 hours from now. The 1006 mb low is now 1009 mb as it gets into the Gulf from Texas. I thought this low was going to start intensifying before that. That's also quite a good distance for the low to cover in six hours.



Now it's 6:00 pm CST tomorrow evening. The low has whizzed all the way across the Gulf in 12 hours and is now sitting south of Panama City. I guess it's dropped to 1003 mb from 1009...or maybe it was really 1006 when it came into the Gulf. The entire evolution doesn't make a lot of sense from those maps. We will know by this time tomorrow what the real forecast was, or should have been. I still live in this fantasy world from when we used to be able to forecast 24 hours ahead and get it mostly right. Good luck on that concept now.




The geography of NC doesn't help matters either. The way it sticks out tends to affect the northeastern part of the state for longer than down here. From what I've heard they mainly had to deal with snow west of the sounds and a wintry mix for the OBX.

And this has been a tricky event for the NWS to predict. Interesting forecaster's discussion opening:

TAKING A LOOK AT THE MORNING SOUNDING...WE CAME IN A BIT WARMER
ALOFT THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WE WERE DRIER AS WELL...SUGGESTING
THAT THE WET BULBING EFFECTS WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE FORECAST. THIS
IS NOTHING NEW...BUT MOST PROJECTIONS ALOFT STARTED AT ABOUT
+4...WHERE OUR SOUNDING CAME IN AT +8 AT 800MB. SINCE THERE IS
LITTLE TO NO COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES TO HELP OUT THE FROZEN
PRECIP...WE WILL HAVE TO RELY COMPLETELY ON DYNAMICAL OR MECHANICAL
COOLING...THAT IS FORCING COLDER AIR ALOFT DOWNWARD THROUGH HEAVY
PRECIP PROCESSES.

OTHERWISE...THE START TIME TO THE MOISTENING IS LOOKING QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED WHICH WILL POSSIBLY NOT ALLOW ALL THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SURFACE WARMING. BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN EET AT 35/23 AND BHM
32/22...AS BHM WOULD WET BULB SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING AS LONG
AS ANY PRE-PRECIP WARMING IS NOT TOO DRAMATIC.

WE ARE MOVING FROM THE MODELS TO OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL LAUNCH 1 OR
2 SPECIAL BALLOON RUNS TO TRY AND ASSESS MOVING FORWARD. FORECAST
WILL REMAIN THE SAME...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND COOLER
SURFACE WET BULBING...BE EXTREMELY WEARY OF SLEET AT THE ONSET AND
POSSIBLY SLEET FOR THE DURATION IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE WARNING. MY TWO RULES FROM HERE GOING FORWARD WILL BE TO
WATCH SURFACE AND 850MB TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...WHICH ARE BEST
ASSESSED THROUGH OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

LAST POINT...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXTREMELY HEAVY...CONVECTIVE IN
SOME CASES...SO THE DYNAMICAL PROCESSES WILL BE AMPED SIGNIFICANTLY
COMPARED TO OUR TYPICAL WINTER EVENTS. KEEP THIS IN MIND...THAT
COOLING THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR QUICKLY AND IT WILL LIKELY MODIFY ANY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS PROJECTED. USING FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE A
VERY DANGEROUS PROPOSITION FROM HERE FORWARD.
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Quoting vis0:
Been busy dwnlding 128mb of software to test, just seen radar (Base) would say via my "gnowledge" to watch out for wind shifts coming down to seas levels in the SE or just W of SE USofA
Good morning, Vis, Bonnie, Matt, and the rest of the crew of the SS Minnow this morning. What are you seeing about this wind shift, Vis? We will get one sometime late today as the front passes but I'm not seeing anything else that looks unusual. the "marginal" severe storm threat looks pretty darn marginal today. It's a balmy 41 after a low to 39. The barometer has actually risen a bit compared to midnight. In looking at the surface map, the surface low in the Gulf is at 1008 mb and forecast to drop but not as rapidly as models predicted yesterday. The warm front is starting to move north and, I believe have enough warm available that a heavy snow threat looks really marginal for the Deep South. There has been a bit of lighting showing up right on the TX/LA border. I'm hoping at least a thunderstorm wanders through for me today since that's the closest to meteorological excitement I'm going to see. :-)

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North Central North Carolina -Expected to take the brunt of the snow storm.
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Earthquake off Japam Link
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Quoting 309. StormTrackerScott:

Were probably well on our way to getting El-Nino declared as the last 3 months have average a ONI of .5 or greater and February would go down as 4 so only 1 Month left to get an official reading of atleast .5 or greater then April it could be official. Now if the CPC does declare El-Nino in April then the official start date of this event would have been in October.



If it is an El - Nino it looks to be a weak Modoki Nino and then turning back to neutral come summer, but lets wait a few more months until we make a summer forecast.
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313. vis0
Been busy dwnlding 128mb of software to test, just seen radar (Base) would say via my "gnowledge" to watch out for wind shifts coming down to seas levels in the SE or just W of SE USofA
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Heard that theory on NPR yesterday. Interesting..and makes sense. I always wondered why the plague is basically nonexistent in Europe today. The rats are all still there.


Quoting 303. islander101010:

all those history shows i watched now a scientist disputes that rats were not the culprit for carrying the plague. it was gerbils . wow.
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This was a great blog Mr. Henson, I didn't have time to pop in yesterday but wanted to comment a little on the subject. I very much agree that we likely are entering an increased period of air temperature warming. I'm not fully convinced that the PDO has flipped for good, the current negative phase was a little on the short side, but it will flip within the next few years. And when that happens, you'll get the natural climate driver in sync with the human driven warming. And it'll probably be even more extreme than the last round of rapid warming back in the 80s and 90s. Warmest years on record, or very close to them, will probably become the norm over the next decade.

"The hiatus" is a real thing, at least to an extent. Air temperature warming has slowed considerably since the PDO flipped, although as mentioned the oceans continue to take in large amounts of heat. And 15 years still isn't a long enough time to make meaningful conclusions about climate. But with a cold PDO, and other natural factors like a quiet Sun supporting slightly cooler conditions, you would think we would've seen some cooling over the last decade. Obviously that hasn't happened. This is further proof that the climate forcing we have created, mainly absurd amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere, are more than powerful enough to overcome natural cycles, and that when the natural cycles go to a warmer phase, we're likely to see some pretty scary levels of warming. We're just along for the ride at this point.
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Were probably well on our way to getting El-Nino declared as the last 3 months have average a ONI of .5 or greater and February would go down as 4 so only 1 Month left to get an official reading of atleast .5 or greater then April it could be official. Now if the CPC does declare El-Nino in April then the official start date of this event would have been in October.


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last night i had some light snow for one hour in east haven
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MattRogers-CapitalWeatherGang
7:05 AM EST
Yeah, I think the NWS snow projections seem too low to me right now. The NAM (high and low-res ) from the 6z cycle seemed to be in the 2-4" range and the SREF mean is about 4" for DC.
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Quoting 303. islander101010:

all those history shows i watched now a scientist disputes that rats were not the culprit for carrying the plague. it was gerbils . wow.


Totally unconvincing argument. All rodents can carry plague. Sporadic human cases are frequently associated with marmots (prairie dogs). Neither marmots nor gerbils colonise ships in the way that rats do. All European plague outbreaks began in port cities, so it's a no brainer.

Last year, a couple of UK scientists with a book to sell, were claiming the Black Death was caused by Ebola, despite the fact that plague victim mass graves in London have recently been excavated and the RNA of the plague pathogen, Yersinia pestis, identified from teeth pulp.
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fukushima disaster is far from over. company now admits it has been leaking radioactive water into the sea past eight months.
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all those history shows i watched now a scientist disputes that rats were not the culprit for carrying the plague. it was gerbils . wow.
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Quoting 300. tampabaymatt:



Good morning Bon!

Morning, Matt. I think a lot of us are in for some rain today (or snow for some).
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Quoting 299. LAbonbon:

Good morning, WU - looks like some folks are going to have a messy one...



Good morning Bon!
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Good morning, WU - looks like some folks are going to have a messy one...
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Quoting 18. tchall:

What effect will the current lack of sunspot activity have on the radiant energy reaching the earth?

Is that included in the present modeling of future climate?
The effect is very small. The total variation over the 11 year cycle is about 1.3 W/m^2 at the top of the atmosphere out of an average irradiation of 1366 W/m^2. That's a 0.1% variation. On the other hand over the course of a year the irradiation varies from about 1321 W/m^2 to 1412 W/m^2 because of the Earth's orbital eccentricity.

So the effect of solar variation (the sunspot cycle) is so small it's less than the uncertainty from other sources in climate models and I don't think they include it. But the yearly variation due to orbital eccentricity is big enough that it is accounted for in some way. (That's my understanding but I don't know for sure.)
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Raise your hand if you were inside this!


Lived in Coral Springs at the time.. Barely got much from it
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Quoting 290. HurrMichaelOrl:


Was there, three times that year and I am beginning to think never again in my lifetime will I have those experiences. Was very windy but nothing traumatic (like the eyewall of Andrew) so no "I hope to never have to experience that again". As unusual as that was for my specific area (2004), I think all three major tropical cyclones one might experience in an average lifetime here in the Orlando area (at most) happened in mine in one single year! I know of no other tropical cyclones that officially caused as high of sustained winds as Charley, Frances or Jeanne's maximum sustained winds in Orlando (in a single year).


Gustav was similar to Charley in terms of extent of inland wind damage. It kind of happens with the fast-moving storms.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather