Are We Entering a New Period of Rapid Global Warming?

By: Bob Henson , 5:04 PM GMT on February 24, 2015

Residents of New England may understandably look back at 2015 as the year of their never-ending winter. For the planet as a whole, though, this year could stand out most for putting to rest the “hiatus”— the 15-year slowdown in atmospheric warming that gained intense scrutiny by pundits, scientists, and the public. While interesting in its own right, the hiatus garnered far more attention than it deserved as a purported sign that future global warming would be much less than expected. The slowdown was preceded by almost 20 years of dramatic global temperature rise, and with 2014 having set a new global record high, there are signs that another decade-plus period of intensified atmospheric warming may be at our doorstep.

The most compelling argument for a renewed surge in global air temperature is rooted in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This index tracks the fingerprint of sea surface temperature (SST) across the Pacific north of 20°N. A closely related index, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), covers a larger swath of the entire Pacific. Both the PDO and IPO capture back-and-forth swings in the geography of Pacific SSTs that affect the exchange of heat between ocean and atmosphere (see Figure 1). We’ll use PDO as shorthand for both indexes in the following discussion.

The PDO typically leans toward a positive or negative state for more than a decade at a time. The positive phase, which features warmer-than-average SSTs along the U.S. West Coast, was dominant from the mid-1970s to the late 1990s. The PDO then flipped to a negative phase between about 1999 and 2013, with cooler-than-average SSTs along the West Coast. Figure 2 shows that even when a particular mode is favored, the PDO can still flip back to its opposite mode for periods of a few months or so.


Figure 1. Departures from average sea-surface temperature (degrees C) and wind (arrows) that typically prevail when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in its positive mode (left) and negative mode (right). Image credit: University of Washington.


It’s not clear exactly what drives the PDO, but in some ways it can be viewed as a geographically expanded version of the SST patterns created by El Niño and La Niña, averaged over a longer time period. (See Figure 2.) It’s well-established that El Niño can raise global temperature for a few months by several tenths of a degree Celsius, as warm water spreads over the eastern tropical Pacific and mixes with the overlying atmosphere. Likewise, La Niña can act to pull down global average temperature, as cooler-than-average water extends further west than usual across the tropical Pacific. The PDO mirrors these trends, but over longer periods. When the PDO is positive, there are more El Niño and fewer La Niña events, and heat stored in the ocean tends to be spread across a larger surface area, allowing it to enter the atmosphere more easily. When the PDO is negative, SSTs are below average across a larger area, and global air temperatures tend to be lower.


Figure 2. Typical warm and cool anomalies in sea-surface temperature during positive PDO years (left) and El Niño years (right). The patterns are similar, though with differences in intensity over some regions. The anomalies are reversed for negative PDO and La Niña years. Image credit: University of Washington Climate Impacts Group.


Figure 3 shows a striking connection between favored PDO modes (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). The vast majority of atmospheric warming over the last century occurred during positive PDO phases, with negative PDOs tending to result in flat temperature trends. It’s easy to see how an atmospheric warming “hiatus” could occur during a negative PDO phase.


Figure 3. PDO values (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). Gray shading indicates positive PDO periods, when atmospheric warming was most evident. The NOAA PDO values shown here vary slightly from those discussed in the article, which are calculated by the University of Washington. Image credit: Jerimiah Brown, Weather Underground. Data sources:NOAA (top) and NOAA/NCDC (bottom).


From the AMS meeting
The hiatus was discussed at length in a series of talks during the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society last month in Phoenix. Jerry Meehl, from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (my former employer), gave a whirlwind 15-minute overview of hiatus-oriented research conducted over the last six years. Meehl’s talk can be viewed online. More than 20 papers have studied the hiatus and its links to the PDO/IPO, according to Matthew England (University of New South Wales). Most of the flattening of global temperature during the hiatus can be traced to cooler-than-average conditions over the eastern tropical Pacific, which pulled down global averages. An emerging theme is that natural, or internal, variability in the tropical Pacific can explain at least half of the hiatus. NCAR’s Clara Deser presented new modeling evidence along these lines (see video online). Other factors may be involved as well, including a series of weak volcanic eruptions that could explain a small part of the hiatus, according to a recent analysis by Ben Santer (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory).

One crucial point is that global warming didn’t “stop” during the hiatus: the world’s oceans actually gained heat at an accelerated pace. Trade winds blew more strongly from east to west across the Pacific, consistent with the tendency toward La Niña conditions, as described in this open-access article by NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo. Over parts of the central tropical Pacific, trade winds averaged about 3 mph stronger during 1999-2012 compared to 1976-1988. These speeds are higher than for any previous hiatus on record, bolstering the idea that other factors may have joined this negative PDO/IPO phase. The faster trade winds encouraged upwelling of cooler water to the east and helped deepen and strengthen the warm pool to the west—enough, in fact, to raise sea level around the Philippines by as much as 8 inches. Other parts of the deep ocean warmed as well. A new study led by Dean Roemmich (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) maps the areas of greatest ocean heating from 2006 to 2013 and finds that significant warming extended to depths of greater than 6600 feet.

What next for the PDO?
The PDO index, as calculated at the University of Washington, scored positive values during every month in 2014, the first such streak since 2003. By December it reached +2.51, the largest positive value for any December in records that go back to 1900. The January value from UW was 2.45, again a monthly record. (NOAA calculates its own PDO values through a closely related methodology.)

Because the PDO can flip modes for a year or more within its longer-term cycle, we don’t yet know whether a significant shift to a positive PDO phase has begun. If trade winds weaken throughout this year, and positive PDO values persist, that’ll be strong evidence that a new cycle is indeed under way. The last time we saw a two-year streak of positive values was in 1992-93. If this occurs, and assuming no spikes in major volcanic activity, we could expect greater rises in global temperature over the next 10 to 15 years than we’ve seen during the hiatus. In addition, we should watch for El Niño to make its presence known more often.

“I am inclined to think the hiatus is over, mainly based on the PDO index change,” NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth told me. While Matthew England isn’t ready to offer such a prediction, he emphasized that any post-hiatus global temperature rise is likely to be fairly rapid. Trenberth also commented on an interesting NOAA analysis (see Figure 4): “If one takes the global mean temperature from 1970 on, everything fits a linear trend quite well except 1998.”


Figure 4. When looking at global temperature over a full PDO cycle (1970s to 2010s), the overall rise becomes evident, despite the flattening observed in the last 15 years. Image credit: NOAA.


A record-strong El Niño occurred in 1998, providing an unusually powerful boost to global temperature and fueling years of subsequent declarations that “global warming stopped in 1998.” The record warmth of 2014 made it clear that global warming has no intention of stopping, and the next few years are likely to reinforce that point. Nevertheless, snowbound New Englanders, and millions of other easterners now dealing with record cold for so late in the year, may be wondering why eastern North America has seen so much cold and snow in the past few winters--especially this one--and how long that climatic quirk might continue. Stay tuned for a separate post on that topic.

Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting 134. tampabaymatt:



Why would they still use trains if there was a pipeline in place? I don't get it.


The Keystone XL would run from Canada's tar sands to Texas...I wasn't aware West Virginia, the site of the last trail derailment and oil screw up, was along that route. :)

Unless you want oil pipelines everywhere. Oil pipelines spill more oil than trains over comparable distances. Pick your poison I suppose.
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Change in Time Zones Used for Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Advisory Products Effective May 15, 2015

Excerpt:

Effective May 15, 2015, the National Hurricane Center will begin
issuing the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory (TCP), Tropical
Cyclone Update (TCU) and the Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD)
using the time zone in which the storm is located. Atlantic basin
advisory products have for many years been issued in varying time
zones based on the location of the storm. This change extends that
policy to the eastern North Pacific basin.
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Quoting 136. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




I was looking at the anomalies. I stand corrected.
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Quoting 71. Patrap:


ahem,

Is this on ?

When a employer tells you he is going to pay you min wage, what He really is saying, "I'd pay you less,but the Gub'ment won't let me"

Thank you,





So, ah,... the graph implies a roughly 40-year cyclic period and we're starting the 'blue period' now... maybe five or tens years into it already.

And the prediction/observation/conclusion is ????
Thanks.
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Quoting 135. hydrus:

Ice storms can make a mess of everything in short order. Hope it does not get to bad for you and the folks there.
there is likely a few ice events to come as we move into transition month of march
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Quoting 130. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Upgraded to an Ice Storm Warning here. It's been pouring freezing rain here since about 10am. The ice is starting to weigh down tree limbs.




The current loops are showing lots of "mixed" precip moving over Eastern NC at the moment but I can't always tell from a loop whether is it actually an ice storm or another mix..........................Keep us posted from your parts and stay safe.
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Quoting 133. TimTheWxMan:




The Gulf's warming up, especially around the Loop Current.
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Quoting 130. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Upgraded to an Ice Storm Warning here. It's been pouring freezing rain here since about 10am. The ice is starting to weigh down tree limbs.


Ice storms can make a mess of everything in short order. Hope it does not get to bad for you and the folks there.
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Quoting 128. Naga5000:



They would still use trains...piepline or not. We have lots of gas and oil pipelines:






Why would they still use trains if there was a pipeline in place? I don't get it.
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Quoting 125. Gearsts:





The Gulf's warming up, especially around the Loop Current.
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How Much Snow?
South:

Our forecast map below shows a stripe of accumulating snow from northeast Texas, southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana to northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, northern Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, North Carolina and southern Virginia. As you can see, a large swath has the potential to see 1 to 3 inches of snow. Embedded in this larger area we could see higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches.
There will be a sharp cutoff on the southern side of the accumulating snow swath where amounts may range from very little to a few inches in a short distance.
Cities that could see some accumulating snow: Dallas-Fort Worth | Shreveport, Louisiana | Tupelo, Mississippi | Birmingham, Alabama (particularly northern areas) | Atlanta (northern suburbs) | Greenville, South Carolina | Charlotte, North Carolina | Raleigh, North Carolina | Asheville North Carolina | Norfolk, Virginia
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Upgraded to an Ice Storm Warning here. It's been pouring freezing rain here since about 10am. The ice is starting to weigh down tree limbs.

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Quoting 44. dabirds:

Interesting WRF hydrus, to match our local forecasts that snow should be earlier and more East. Checked several after saw that and all still call for snow chance Wed eve, Thurs morning (36-48 hrs). Also noticed Sun for StL shows 41 & rain, and one to N shows a mix still, so suspect the one I saw saying only snow w/ above freezing temps was a misprint & should have been mix (or rain even). Guess we'll see tomorrow which is correct.

Getting any melt today?



Watch for precip next week.






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Quoting 124. tampabaymatt:



Meanwhile, they can transport the oil using trains. Because, that sounds like a better alternative.


They would still use trains...piepline or not. We have lots of gas and oil pipelines:



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Winter Storm Remus: More Snow in the South

Winter Storm Remus has been named by the winter storm naming committee at The Weather Channel. Remus will be the fourth winter storm to impact the South with snow and ice in the last 10 days. The storm will also bring some snow to the Midwest. Low pressure is expected to track from near the Gulf Coast to off the Southeast coast in response to an energetic upper-level system moving across the region. With sufficiently cold air in place, the low will help pull moisture northward across the South, resulting in snow for some locations, and a cold rain for others. At the same time, a disturbance aloft will bring snow to the Midwest, eventually consolidating with the southern side of Remus.

Below is the snow forecast for Winter Storm Remus, followed by the timing Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Keep in mind that slight changes in the forecast path of the storm could change the expected snow amounts, so check back for updates.
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Quoting 124. tampabaymatt:



Meanwhile, they can transport the oil using trains. Because, that sounds like a better alternative.
they can but them there trains can derail whenever they chose so
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Quoting 118. tiggerhurricanes2001:

What is the current amo index and where could i find that? Also, are north Atlantic sst's running normal, above normal, below normal, or near normal? Thanks for the knowledge.😃
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Quoting 123. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

President Barack Obama on Tuesday swiftly delivered on his vow to veto a Republican bill approving the Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada, leaving the long-debated project in limbo for another indefinite period.

The Senate received Obama's veto message and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell immediately countered by announcing the Republican-led chamber would attempt to overturn the veto by March 3.

Obama rejected the bill hours after it was sent to the White House. Republicans passed the bill to increase pressure on Obama to approve the pipeline, a move the president said would circumvent a State Department process that will determine whether the project is in the U.S. national interest.

(Reporting by Richard Cowan and Susan Cornwell; Editing by Peter Cooney)



Meanwhile, they can transport the oil using trains. Because, that sounds like a better alternative.
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President Barack Obama on Tuesday swiftly delivered on his vow to veto a Republican bill approving the Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada, leaving the long-debated project in limbo for another indefinite period.

The Senate received Obama's veto message and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell immediately countered by announcing the Republican-led chamber would attempt to overturn the veto by March 3.

Obama rejected the bill hours after it was sent to the White House. Republicans passed the bill to increase pressure on Obama to approve the pipeline, a move the president said would circumvent a State Department process that will determine whether the project is in the U.S. national interest.

(Reporting by Richard Cowan and Susan Cornwell; Editing by Peter Cooney)
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Quoting 116. Naga5000:



This has nothing to do with what is being predicted and everything to do with accepted terminology. You can't just create or rename something because you feel it represents something else. CAGW is merely a goal post moving tactic, and does not appear in the literature. If we are going to discuss climate science, let's discuss it in it's proper context, using it's proper terminology and meaning. When you talk about math, do you call it "number magic"? Or gravity "catastrophic downward force"? I didn't think so.

Well, once upon a time we had 'new math'...that might count as 'number magic'...
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Model consensus low track is too far north to provide a significant 
accumulating snow threat for Columbia metropolitan and points south...but
across our northern forecast area...a threat exists. Model forecast
soundings and partial thickness schemes support a period of snow for
our northern forecast area Wednesday nt.


After a thorough review of model information and coordination call
with National and regional offices...decided to hoist a Winter Storm
Watch for the northern five counties of our forecast area in SC for
Wednesday nt/early Thursday. Snow appears to be the primary threat.



This system is getting more and more interesting as time gets closer.
Hopefully there will be more cold air, thus allowing a quicker "change over" to snow.
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Tampa Bay area
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What is the current amo index and where could i find that? Also, are north Atlantic sst's running normal, above normal, below normal, or near normal? Thanks for the knowledge.😃
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Quoting 110. sar2401:

Fine. Stop putting those bulls eyes on the graphic then. It indicates a level of skill no model has. Put the contours on the chart and let them stand for what they are. The chart Bonnie and I have been discussing lately is from Sunday thru midnight tomorrow. It showed a 2.55" figure directly over my house. I mean, like within 10 miles. Does that mean I should really expect 2.55"? Of course not, because the WPC doesn't have that kind skill. If so, stop putting the damn numbers on the chart. And stop publishing the seven day and longer forecasts to the public. It's going to be wrong 75% of the time. Go to the WPC verification page and check for yourself. Publish internally to improve verification but stop making it public. Do you have any idea what would have happened to me if I continued to put out a product with my company's name on it that was wrong 75% of the time? I really don't think you do. The WPC forecasts for three days are worthwhile. The five day is starting to get unreliable but it hits about 50% of the time. Beyond that, I can start coin flipping. It's simple, Caleb. Stop making public forecasts that your level of skill doesn't back up.


Very well put.
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Quoting 96. jpsb:




You don't think the predicted effects of AGW would be catastrophic?


This has nothing to do with what is being predicted and everything to do with accepted terminology. You can't just create or rename something because you feel it represents something else. CAGW is merely a goal post moving tactic, and does not appear in the literature. If we are going to discuss climate science, let's discuss it in it's proper context, using it's proper terminology and meaning. When you talk about math, do you call it "number magic"? Or gravity "catastrophic downward force"? I didn't think so.
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What is the current amo index and where could i find that? Also, are north Atlantic sst's running normal, above normal, near normal, or below normal?
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Quoting 98. AldreteMichael:
This part of today's article alarmed me the most:

"Over parts of the central tropical Pacific, trade winds averaged about 3 mph stronger during 1999-2012 compared to 1976-1988....The faster trade winds encouraged upwelling of cooler water to the east and helped deepen and strengthen the warm pool to the west—enough, in fact, to raise sea level around the Philippines by as much as 8 inches."

If I am reading this correctly, is this saying the Ocean rose 8 inches around the Phillipines in a THIRTEEN year period!?


There's also this, found on the BBC website today.
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NWS, Wilmington, NC

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
CONTINUE WITH A PLANNED EXPIRATION AT 6 PM AS UPSTREAM TRACE TO
0.01 ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF SE NC
AND NE SC. PRECIPITATION TRENDS HOWEVER STILL APPEAR TO BE A
DIMINISHING ONE. THIS EVENING THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO FREEZING OF
WET ROADWAYS AND A HAZARDOUS COMMUTING ENVIRONMENT...AND AN SPS
WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS DANGER OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED.

HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVES WILL NOT MOVE A GREAT DEAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTHWARD WILL
ALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS ALL OF SE NC AND NE SC...WITH
MINIMUMS AT DAYBREAK 24-27 MOST AREAS AND AROUND 30 COASTAL ZONES
AT DAYBREAK.

LOOKS LIKE RECORD COLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET TODAY,
ILM 34 IN 1889...CURRENT HIGH 31. FLO 36 IN 1989...CURRENT HIGH
30.
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Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yes, but you nitpick every little thing done wrong by them, such as the WPC QPF and how they overdo the precipitation totals for your area all the time. The do go in increments of 0.25 after .01 and .10, but it goes to show you the scale is coarse compared to some models like the Rapid Refresh. And for Probabalistic QPF it is based on percentile of that amount actually occurring. Model QPF is still something that needs improvement as they still have a difficult time paramaterizing convection. Human forecasts still matter.
Fine. Stop putting those bulls eyes on the graphic then. It indicates a level of skill no model has. Put the contours on the chart and let them stand for what they are. The chart Bonnie and I have been discussing lately is from Sunday thru midnight tomorrow. It showed a 2.55" figure directly over my house. I mean, like within 10 miles. Does that mean I should really expect 2.55"? Of course not, because the WPC doesn't have that kind skill. If so, stop putting the damn numbers on the chart. And stop publishing the seven day and longer forecasts to the public. It's going to be wrong 75% of the time. Go to the WPC verification page and check for yourself. Publish internally to improve verification but stop making it public. Do you have any idea what would have happened to me if I continued to put out a product with my company's name on it that was wrong 75% of the time? I really don't think you do. The WPC forecasts for three days are worthwhile. The five day is starting to get unreliable but it hits about 50% of the time. Beyond that, I can start coin flipping. It's simple, Caleb. Stop making public forecasts that your level of skill doesn't back up.
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Quoting 107. VirginIslandsVisitor:



And I apologize to you. I reread what I answered and realized you might have thought I was laughing at your comment! Not at all! I was laughing hysterically at the memories of that nightmare....

Lindy


S'okay, I got your drift. I think this disease has some big potential to become widespread in the Americas, including the US. It's incredible that a third of the inhabitants of La Reunion, in the Indian Ocean, caught it. It has the potential to spread as far as NYC.

There's no vaccine, and it seems to cause long term health problems in many who catch it.
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for now this cold is putting a hurting on that usas Chikungunya threat. right now a mosquito could freeze mid flight im thinking its just more hype. no one would read if it wasnt hyped
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Quoting 78. yonzabam:



Looks idyllic, but I don't think I could put up with the mosquito borne diseases. Chikungunya fever is becoming rife throughout the Caribbean islands, and Dengue fever is also widespread. I expect Florida will see a big increase in these diseases, particularly if it gets warmer and wetter. What's the situation with chikungunya in the Virgin islands?


And I apologize to you. I reread what I answered and realized you might have thought I was laughing at your comment! Not at all! I was laughing hysterically at the memories of that nightmare....

Lindy
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106. jpsb
Quoting 84. ProphetessofDoom:


I'm a long-time lurker and a once in a blue moon poster. I have to ask you, in all seriousness, why don't you believe in AGW? I'm not being snarky, and perhaps you've provided this explanation before and I just missed it. I'm just trying to understand the evidence that you use to support your arguments.


I will get back to you tomorrow on that. But for now lets just say I am a luke warmest, not a true believer. I get treaty badly by the hard core skeptics too. lol.
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Quoting 82. pottery:

"Are we entering a new period of rapid global warming?"... that's the question posed at the heading of this blog.

Some information below that headline would suggest that this is a strong possibility.
But, really, it's all conjecture right now. It could happen. It could fail to happen.

We are all (Scientists included) trying to relate current data to future trends.
We are all still attempting to understand how past data, combined with the current, is going to play out down the road.
We have some pretty good ideas on this, but we are still unable to accurately predict the future.
Mostly because we are dealing with new parameters which are changing fast.

The current Dread Winter in parts of the US is just one small example of this....
We now know it is happening, we had a couple days notice it was coming, but we have no idea what the longterm/macro driving force is/was.

Predicting the future (weather/climate, whatever) is really difficult when the entire climate all over the Earth is in rapid flux like it is now.
The existing data does not help much.

I disagree. I think we do know the driving force of the current cold weather in parts of the US- it's the wonkiness of the jet stream. Indeed we know that this wonkiness is resulting in extraordinary warmth elsewhere in the US and the world. It's a redistribution of cold air, rather than an increase in areas that are extremely cold. Indeed, some of the worst heatwaves in US history have been preceded by winters with intense cold snaps.
The projections aren't conjecture, they're realistic probable outcomes of the physics and chemistry experiment we're conducting in the sky.
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Quoting 72. StormTrackerScott:



LOL! Too funny but what I said was true and that was the point I was making a couple of weeks back when some decided to say the PDO has not much to do with El-NIno when Bob Henson said that positive PDO years tend to increase the frequency of El-Nino. It's funny that Bob 2 weeks later is saying what I was trying to get across to people. PDO has been in the tank for several years until late last year when things finally switched and i feel this was the missing piece to getting El-Nino going last Spring and into Summer.
Last year we had a +PDO and still no el nino so what's your point?
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Quoting 94. VirginIslandsVisitor:



omgggg....you have me laughing over here so hard, I'm crying!! It was the most horrendous experience I've ever been through. I actually did a blog on Chikungunya as it was THAT BAD!

Link

I believe the "herd effect" has finally kicked in here on St. Thomas and the cases have dropped drastically. Personally, I'm still suffering from way too many aches and pains and, believe it or not, after four months after coming down with it, cannot open a bottle of water.


Can't believe that you actually caught it. It's only recently arrived in the Caribbean, and it's only going to get worse. Here's a snippet from an article I found.

To predict the virus's next steps, Cassadou and other epidemiologists in the Caribbean and the Western Hemisphere are carefully examining the genome of the strain of chikungunya that had recently arrived on St. Martin. Preliminary sequencing data reported on Pro-MED Mail, a worldwide electronic reporting system for infectious diseases, indicated that the Asian strain of virus is responsible for the Caribbean outbreak, not E1-226V.

Powers says the strain in the Caribbean most closely matches samples of chikungunya isolated in China and on the island of Yap in Micronesia. How the virus made the long trans-Pacific voyage is unclear, as none of the initial victims on St. Martin had any history of travel to areas with known chikungunya outbreaks. Cassadou says it still isn't clear whether another traveler with milder symptoms might have brought the virus into the country, or whether the virus was transported by an infected mosquito.

Regardless of how the virus arrived in the Caribbean, chikungunya has gone about island-hopping like any bona fide tourist and has made itself right at home. The trickle of cases that Cassadou initially saw in her Guadaloupe office has become a flood. The outbreak is looking like it might have the same destructive potential as the one on La Reunion, where nearly one-third of the population was sickened. We don't know how far this outbreak will spread or how many people it will affect, Schwartz says.

We have the right mosquito here, and no one is immune to chikungunya, Cassadou says. These are the factors that can create a big epidemic.


A third of the population.

Good article here on how chikungunya may be about to sweep through the US.

Link
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Quoting ILwthrfan:

I'm curious to what Mr. Henson's analogy is for 1900-1910 and 1910-1920 time frames. Seems like we had a positive PDO from 1900-1910, correlating with a increase of negative temperature anomalies.

I can easily see the other correlations that are pointed out with different time spans, but didn't know for what reason why the PDO did not affect the global temperature anomaly from 1900-1910? Then the pattern seems to switch at 1910 while the PDO tanks to negative we see an increase in global temperature anomalies until 1920? After that point we see the noted correlations in the graph quit easily.

Was C02 conentrations not high enough yet during that time frame for us to see a noticeable effect on the temperature anomaly? Or was there another variable trumping C02 at that time?

Jared
I was wondering the same thing. It can't just be PDO variation based on the period from 1900 to about 1935. I can't really tell the year because the X axis is a little murky. I also can't tell what the cool anomalies were since no scale on the negative part of the Y axis. It's a pretty chart but fails on at least those two points. It appears that there were several large positive anomalies in the 1920's and 30's leading up to the biggest anomaly shown in about 1938. It's only in about 1940 that we start to see temperature anomalies. Looking at the positive anomalies overall, they really don't look any more remarkable in the past 20 years than they did in the first 20 years of this chart. I may be missing something (and several people will immediately let me know what), but I'm not convinced about the direct relationship proposed in the text based on that chart.
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Quoting 31. wxgeek723:

Not something you see every day:

Fletcher Park in central Raleigh
...still snowing too.


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Quoting 85. weathermanwannabe:



Big enough if I move all the guitars and amps out that my Wife has been begging me to do now for 10 years; I highly doubt she would let me substitute a huge globe instead................... :)
You could make a small one -- I doubt if it is a full globe, more likely a hemisphere, frosted on the inside, with a fish-eye-lens video projector providing the imagery. Making the video is the trick -- but it can be done. We experimented with a small planetarium at the museum where I worked, using the same technology projecting onto the dome and viewed from the inside, but doing it with a blown plexi hemisphere is a piece of cake, given the funds.
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Quoting 77. sar2401:

What's all that green stuff? Is that a lawn? I've heard they are green, but mine has been nothing but brown for four months. My neighbor's very large and very old banana palm is now a twisted mass of goo on the ground. Whatever pretensions I had about living in even a semi-tropical area are long gone after the last two winters. :-)


There are some banana palms on campus here at FSU that have died each winter I've been here so far only to sprout up again in the Spring and grow surprisingly fast and even produce a few bananas in late summer. It seems that while winters here can get far too harsh for them, the root system stays plenty warm and they grow right back. There are other tropical plants on campus with similar behavior. My guess is cold sensitive tropical plants learn to adapt in these regions that way. Banana palms are so cold sensitive that they often don't even make through Tampa Bay winters, or at least not without looking bad and wilted, but they grow right back. There are some neighbors in my parents neighborhood down there that have grown bananas for years since I grew up there, and while the bananas might not be as good, they actually are still decent enough to like despite that the parent stalks die or come close to it and have to grow back.

You should check on the one in your neighbors yard later in the spring into summer and see if some new growth comes back out of the ground near the old dead stuff. Now at some point, ground temperatures become cold enough as you go north where obviously the roots can't survive either so they will die and won't grow back. However I'm not sure if you are far enough north or not for that to be the case. I wouldn't be shocked if they grow back later in the year.
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This part of today's article alarmed me the most:

"Over parts of the central tropical Pacific, trade winds averaged about 3 mph stronger during 1999-2012 compared to 1976-1988....The faster trade winds encouraged upwelling of cooler water to the east and helped deepen and strengthen the warm pool to the west—enough, in fact, to raise sea level around the Philippines by as much as 8 inches."

If I am reading this correctly, is this saying the Ocean rose 8 inches around the Phillipines in a THIRTEEN year period!?
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From an earlier blog (to re-show the Sao Paulo Reservoir situation graphic)

From The Telegraph:

Taps run dry in Brazil's biggest city as drought bites
It may have the world's biggest water supply and the seventh biggest economy, but that's not enough to keep water running during the country's worst dry stretch since the 1930s

By Donna Bowater, São Paulo 7:00AM GMT 23 Feb 2015

Ediane Marquis is in a rush to leave work at an infant school in the east of São Paulo.

It is the afternoon in Brazil's commercial capital, and she knows her mother-in-law will be without water as the city struggles with its worst drought on record.

"The water goes off at 1pm and comes back on the next day," said Mrs Marquis, 51. "Her bathroom and utility area are connected to the mains supply so she has to come to my house. It's changed her life, it's changed everything."

So far, she said, the nursery where she works has managed to stay open but schools, universities and hospitals are having to adapt to cope with reduced water supplies.

With the lowest rainfall since 1930, reservoirs that supply almost half of the 20 million people in the metropolitan area - including the financial district - are close to running dry.

Doctors have reportedly had to cut short dialysis for patients with kidney failure because of the shortage while schools have introduced water-saving measures to avoid suspending lessons.
Read full article

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96. jpsb
Quoting 70. Naga5000:

"Catastrophic AGW" I still wasn't aware that was more than a fabrication by the science denial industry. Fancy that, the term doesn't exist in the scientific literature.

"CAGW, for "catastrophic anthropogenic global warming," is a snarl word (or snarl acronym) that global warming denialists use for the established science of climate change. A Google Scholar search indicates that the term is never used in the scientific literature on climate.[1]

It's not clear just when or how the denialists adopted CAGW over from the acronym AGW (anthropogenic global warming) used by normal folk. The term was used in blog comments at the New York Times[2] and ScienceBlogs as early as 2008,[3] and is likely to have been used earlier. By around 2011 CAGW had become commonplace in denialist blogs such as those of Anthony Watts or Judith Curry, and over the next year or two essentially replaced AGW in such esteemed venues. Despite the qualifier, denialists apply the term indiscriminately to anything approximating the mainstream scientific view on climate, regardless of whether or not "catastrophic" outcomes are implied.

As for motivation, it's an attempt to move the goalposts. Denialists realized they had lost the argument over plain old "anthropogenic global warming" — the basic physics of the problem have been known since the 19th century,[4] so that rejecting AGW outright paints oneself as a loon. Adding "catastrophic" gives plenty of wiggle room for denialism" Link



You don't think the predicted effects of AGW would be catastrophic?


from Union of Concerned Scientists (with a nice request for a donation at the bottom of the page)

Accelerating sea level rise and increased coastal flooding
Longer and more damaging wildfire seasons
More frequent and intense heat waves
National landmarks at risk
Widespread forest death in the Rocky Mountains
Costly and growing health impacts
An increase in extreme weather events
Heavier precipitation and flooding
More severe droughts
Increased pressure on groundwater supplies
Growing risks to our electricity supply
Changing seasons
Melting ice
Disruptions to food supplies
Destruction of coral reefs
Plant and animal range shifts
The potential for abrupt climate change

The above sounds pretty catastrophic to me but it gets worse
Climate Change Deaths Could Total 100 Million By 2030 If World Fails To Act



Immediate Risk to National Security Posed by Global Warming





Catastrophic is the correct term for what you are predicting.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 78. yonzabam:



Looks idyllic, but I don't think I could put up with the mosquito borne diseases. Chikungunya fever is becoming rife throughout the Caribbean islands, and Dengue fever is also widespread. I expect Florida will see a big increase in these diseases, particularly if it gets warmer and wetter. What's the situation with chikungunya in the Virgin islands?


omgggg....you have me laughing over here so hard, I'm crying!! It was the most horrendous experience I've ever been through. I actually did a blog on Chikungunya as it was THAT BAD!

Link

I believe the "herd effect" has finally kicked in here on St. Thomas and the cases have dropped drastically. Personally, I'm still suffering from way too many aches and pains and, believe it or not, four months after coming down with it, still cannot open a bottle of water.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather