Are We Entering a New Period of Rapid Global Warming?

By: Bob Henson , 5:04 PM GMT on February 24, 2015

Residents of New England may understandably look back at 2015 as the year of their never-ending winter. For the planet as a whole, though, this year could stand out most for putting to rest the “hiatus”— the 15-year slowdown in atmospheric warming that gained intense scrutiny by pundits, scientists, and the public. While interesting in its own right, the hiatus garnered far more attention than it deserved as a purported sign that future global warming would be much less than expected. The slowdown was preceded by almost 20 years of dramatic global temperature rise, and with 2014 having set a new global record high, there are signs that another decade-plus period of intensified atmospheric warming may be at our doorstep.

The most compelling argument for a renewed surge in global air temperature is rooted in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This index tracks the fingerprint of sea surface temperature (SST) across the Pacific north of 20°N. A closely related index, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), covers a larger swath of the entire Pacific. Both the PDO and IPO capture back-and-forth swings in the geography of Pacific SSTs that affect the exchange of heat between ocean and atmosphere (see Figure 1). We’ll use PDO as shorthand for both indexes in the following discussion.

The PDO typically leans toward a positive or negative state for more than a decade at a time. The positive phase, which features warmer-than-average SSTs along the U.S. West Coast, was dominant from the mid-1970s to the late 1990s. The PDO then flipped to a negative phase between about 1999 and 2013, with cooler-than-average SSTs along the West Coast. Figure 2 shows that even when a particular mode is favored, the PDO can still flip back to its opposite mode for periods of a few months or so.


Figure 1. Departures from average sea-surface temperature (degrees C) and wind (arrows) that typically prevail when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in its positive mode (left) and negative mode (right). Image credit: University of Washington.


It’s not clear exactly what drives the PDO, but in some ways it can be viewed as a geographically expanded version of the SST patterns created by El Niño and La Niña, averaged over a longer time period. (See Figure 2.) It’s well-established that El Niño can raise global temperature for a few months by several tenths of a degree Celsius, as warm water spreads over the eastern tropical Pacific and mixes with the overlying atmosphere. Likewise, La Niña can act to pull down global average temperature, as cooler-than-average water extends further west than usual across the tropical Pacific. The PDO mirrors these trends, but over longer periods. When the PDO is positive, there are more El Niño and fewer La Niña events, and heat stored in the ocean tends to be spread across a larger surface area, allowing it to enter the atmosphere more easily. When the PDO is negative, SSTs are below average across a larger area, and global air temperatures tend to be lower.


Figure 2. Typical warm and cool anomalies in sea-surface temperature during positive PDO years (left) and El Niño years (right). The patterns are similar, though with differences in intensity over some regions. The anomalies are reversed for negative PDO and La Niña years. Image credit: University of Washington Climate Impacts Group.


Figure 3 shows a striking connection between favored PDO modes (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). The vast majority of atmospheric warming over the last century occurred during positive PDO phases, with negative PDOs tending to result in flat temperature trends. It’s easy to see how an atmospheric warming “hiatus” could occur during a negative PDO phase.


Figure 3. PDO values (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). Gray shading indicates positive PDO periods, when atmospheric warming was most evident. The NOAA PDO values shown here vary slightly from those discussed in the article, which are calculated by the University of Washington. Image credit: Jerimiah Brown, Weather Underground. Data sources:NOAA (top) and NOAA/NCDC (bottom).


From the AMS meeting
The hiatus was discussed at length in a series of talks during the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society last month in Phoenix. Jerry Meehl, from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (my former employer), gave a whirlwind 15-minute overview of hiatus-oriented research conducted over the last six years. Meehl’s talk can be viewed online. More than 20 papers have studied the hiatus and its links to the PDO/IPO, according to Matthew England (University of New South Wales). Most of the flattening of global temperature during the hiatus can be traced to cooler-than-average conditions over the eastern tropical Pacific, which pulled down global averages. An emerging theme is that natural, or internal, variability in the tropical Pacific can explain at least half of the hiatus. NCAR’s Clara Deser presented new modeling evidence along these lines (see video online). Other factors may be involved as well, including a series of weak volcanic eruptions that could explain a small part of the hiatus, according to a recent analysis by Ben Santer (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory).

One crucial point is that global warming didn’t “stop” during the hiatus: the world’s oceans actually gained heat at an accelerated pace. Trade winds blew more strongly from east to west across the Pacific, consistent with the tendency toward La Niña conditions, as described in this open-access article by NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo. Over parts of the central tropical Pacific, trade winds averaged about 3 mph stronger during 1999-2012 compared to 1976-1988. These speeds are higher than for any previous hiatus on record, bolstering the idea that other factors may have joined this negative PDO/IPO phase. The faster trade winds encouraged upwelling of cooler water to the east and helped deepen and strengthen the warm pool to the west—enough, in fact, to raise sea level around the Philippines by as much as 8 inches. Other parts of the deep ocean warmed as well. A new study led by Dean Roemmich (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) maps the areas of greatest ocean heating from 2006 to 2013 and finds that significant warming extended to depths of greater than 6600 feet.

What next for the PDO?
The PDO index, as calculated at the University of Washington, scored positive values during every month in 2014, the first such streak since 2003. By December it reached +2.51, the largest positive value for any December in records that go back to 1900. The January value from UW was 2.45, again a monthly record. (NOAA calculates its own PDO values through a closely related methodology.)

Because the PDO can flip modes for a year or more within its longer-term cycle, we don’t yet know whether a significant shift to a positive PDO phase has begun. If trade winds weaken throughout this year, and positive PDO values persist, that’ll be strong evidence that a new cycle is indeed under way. The last time we saw a two-year streak of positive values was in 1992-93. If this occurs, and assuming no spikes in major volcanic activity, we could expect greater rises in global temperature over the next 10 to 15 years than we’ve seen during the hiatus. In addition, we should watch for El Niño to make its presence known more often.

“I am inclined to think the hiatus is over, mainly based on the PDO index change,” NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth told me. While Matthew England isn’t ready to offer such a prediction, he emphasized that any post-hiatus global temperature rise is likely to be fairly rapid. Trenberth also commented on an interesting NOAA analysis (see Figure 4): “If one takes the global mean temperature from 1970 on, everything fits a linear trend quite well except 1998.”


Figure 4. When looking at global temperature over a full PDO cycle (1970s to 2010s), the overall rise becomes evident, despite the flattening observed in the last 15 years. Image credit: NOAA.


A record-strong El Niño occurred in 1998, providing an unusually powerful boost to global temperature and fueling years of subsequent declarations that “global warming stopped in 1998.” The record warmth of 2014 made it clear that global warming has no intention of stopping, and the next few years are likely to reinforce that point. Nevertheless, snowbound New Englanders, and millions of other easterners now dealing with record cold for so late in the year, may be wondering why eastern North America has seen so much cold and snow in the past few winters--especially this one--and how long that climatic quirk might continue. Stay tuned for a separate post on that topic.

Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting 89. sar2401:

Naga, I know you're fighting the good fight but, seriously, do you think one hardcore denier has ever changed their mind about any of this? The study Barbm posted yesterday, done by a sociologist regarding climate debate, seems to indicate that confronting hardcore deniers with facts just assaults their worldview and makes them dig in every deeper. It seems to me that the best attention we can give them is none. Flag their post and then move on. If enough of us do that, their posts disappear, just like we've seen with two of these people today. If their posts keep disappearing, they wan't get any of the attention they so desperately seek and hopefully go bother someone else. Up to you, of course, but it might help stop that wearing off the skin on your typing fingers. :-)


Oh I know facts don't sway deniers, I'm in the studying science denial game too. I could simply flag and move on, but that doesn't correct the nonsense for others who may not know enough or may be searching for information to make a decision/

As for my typing fingers I think I could just copy/paste some canned responses at this point. I'll take your advice into consideration. :)
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Quoting 78. yonzabam:



Looks idyllic, but I don't think I could put up with the mosquito borne diseases. Chikungunya fever is becoming rife throughout the Caribbean islands, and Dengue fever is also widespread. I expect Florida will see a big increase in these diseases, particularly if it gets warmer and wetter. What's the situation with chikungunya in the Virgin islands?

Hmmmmm...

In defence of the Caribbean Islands--
Yes we have mosquitos and other pests, that spread contagious illnesses.
We have many other problems too. Violence as a result of Narco-Traffic through these Islands is a BIG problem, for instance.
We are dealing pretty well with some of these things, as best we can, but some of the problems are caused by the huge demand for Narcotics in places like the US and Europe.
We are the Conduit, and the value of the Trade is more than many Islands' national budget !

What we do NOT have in these Islands is people dying of cold, people randomly murdering children in schools, setting off bombs at athletic events, and so on.

Nirvana does not exist.

A visit to any one of the Caribbean Islands is generally high on most peoples list.
And with good reason, too.
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Quoting 73. sar2401:

Hey, I don't "bash" the NWS. I'm the first to praise them for a good job but I don't let things not done right slide by either. Regardless of how romantic you thing being a forecaster might be, it's a job with deliverables, just like any other job. When it's not done right or you've blown a part of your job, you can expect to take some heat. No one is perfect, but there's also no one - or no agency - above criticism.
Yes, but you nitpick every little thing done wrong by them, such as the WPC QPF and how they overdo the precipitation totals for your area all the time. The do go in increments of 0.25 after .01 and .10, but it goes to show you the scale is coarse compared to some models like the Rapid Refresh. And for Probabalistic QPF it is based on percentile of that amount actually occurring. Model QPF is still something that needs improvement as they still have a difficult time paramaterizing convection. Human forecasts still matter.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Naga5000:
"Catastrophic AGW" I still wasn't aware that was more than a fabrication by the science denial industry. Fancy that, the term doesn't exist in the scientific literature.

"CAGW, for "catastrophic anthropogenic global warming," is a snarl word (or snarl acronym) that global warming denialists use for the established science of climate change. A Google Scholar search indicates that the term is never used in the scientific literature on climate.[1]

It's not clear just when or how the denialists adopted CAGW over from the acronym AGW (anthropogenic global warming) used by normal folk. The term was used in blog comments at the New York Times[2] and ScienceBlogs as early as 2008,[3] and is likely to have been used earlier. By around 2011 CAGW had become commonplace in denialist blogs such as those of Anthony Watts or Judith Curry, and over the next year or two essentially replaced AGW in such esteemed venues. Despite the qualifier, denialists apply the term indiscriminately to anything approximating the mainstream scientific view on climate, regardless of whether or not "catastrophic" outcomes are implied.

As for motivation, it's an attempt to move the goalposts. Denialists realized they had lost the argument over plain old "anthropogenic global warming" — the basic physics of the problem have been known since the 19th century,[4] so that rejecting AGW outright paints oneself as a loon. Adding "catastrophic" gives plenty of wiggle room for denialism" Link
Naga, I know you're fighting the good fight but, seriously, do you think one hardcore denier has ever changed their mind about any of this? The study Barbm posted yesterday, done by a sociologist regarding climate debate, seems to indicate that confronting hardcore deniers with facts just assaults their worldview and makes them dig in every deeper. It seems to me that the best attention we can give them is none. Flag their post and then move on. If enough of us do that, their posts disappear, just like we've seen with two of these people today. If their posts keep disappearing, they wan't get any of the attention they so desperately seek and hopefully go bother someone else. Up to you, of course, but it might help stop that wearing off the skin on your typing fingers. :-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 77. sar2401:

What's all that green stuff? Is that a lawn? I've heard they are green, but mine has been nothing but brown for four months. My neighbor's very large and very old banana palm is now a twisted mass of goo on the ground. Whatever pretensions I had about living in even a semi-tropical area are long gone after the last two winters. :-)


Well, put it this way. That's the color of green this island turns after over a foot of rain in a week. Looks like it will dry out for a few days but then back to showers again. I'm going to take Friday off to number one, give myself a long weekend, and number two, get out on a boat and catch a few fish. I'm the reigning champ on the boat and have to defend myself!
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Quoting 67. jpsb:



Be polite and you may express a dissenting view here. Dr Masters does not enforce any particular orthodogy. And I must I greatly respect him for allowing debate on his blog. However if the topic is (Catastrophic) AGW and you are a skeptic you can expect to be treated badly by true believers here. Be advised the mods will punish you if you badly abuse the posting rules (see the top of this page).

If you are interested in weather this is probably the best English speaking site on the net. I hear tropicaltidbits is good too but I have no first hand knowledge of that site.

If it were my blog, I wouldn't allow any accusations of fraud or conspiracy to commit a hoax no matter how politely they were stated. After all, the WU is a clear supporter and endorser of AGW/CC science. In that way, it's like accusing Dr Masters or Bob Henson of being a part of part of the plot, or being too stupid to recognize that there is one. That's much more insulting than any curse words or names some might call.
I would moderate pretty strictly, though, if I were in charge. For instance, I wouldn't allow people to talk about Al Gore unless the article being commented on was about Al Gore. I wouldn't allow regulars who repeated the same outright demonstrable falsehoods over and over and over again. And I would not have them slandering myself and my colleagues with disproven accusations of fraud or nefarious intent.
But that's just me.


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Quoting 61. LAbonbon:


Really? Just how big is your living room? :D


Big enough if I move all the guitars and amps out that my Wife has been begging me to do now for 10 years; I highly doubt she would let me substitute a huge globe instead................... :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 67. jpsb:



Be polite and you may express a dissenting view here. Dr Masters does not enforce any particular orthodogy. And I must I greatly respect him for allowing debate on his blog. However if the topic is (Catastrophic) AGW and you are a skeptic you can expect to be treated badly by true believers here. Be advised the mods will punish you if you badly abuse the posting rules (see the top of this page).

If you are interested in weather this is probably the best English speaking site on the net. I hear tropicaltidbits is good too but I have no first hand knowledge of that site.

I'm a long-time lurker and a once in a blue moon poster. I have to ask you, in all seriousness, why don't you believe in AGW? I'm not being snarky, and perhaps you've provided this explanation before and I just missed it. I'm just trying to understand the evidence that you use to support your arguments.
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I'm curious to what Mr. Henson's analogy is for 1900-1910 and 1910-1920 time frames.  Seems like we had a positive PDO from 1900-1910, correlating with a increase of negative temperature anomalies. 

I can easily see the other correlations that are pointed out with different time spans, but didn't know for what reason why the PDO did not affect the global temperature anomaly from 1900-1910?  Then the pattern seems to switch at 1910 while the PDO tanks to negative we see an increase in global temperature anomalies until 1920?  After that point we see the noted correlations in the graph easily.

Was C02 concentrations not high enough yet during that time frame for us to see a noticeable effect on the temperature anomaly?  Or was there another variable trumping C02 at that time?

Jared
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"Are we entering a new period of rapid global warming?"... that's the question posed at the heading of this blog.

Some information below that headline would suggest that this is a strong possibility.
But, really, it's all conjecture right now. It could happen. It could fail to happen.

We are all (Scientists included) trying to relate current data to future trends.
We are all still attempting to understand how past data, combined with the current, is going to play out down the road.
We have some pretty good ideas on this, but we are still unable to accurately predict the future.
Mostly because we are dealing with new parameters which are changing fast.

The current Dread Winter in parts of the US is just one small example of this....
We now know it is happening, we had a couple days notice it was coming, but we have no idea what the longterm/macro driving force is/was.

Predicting the future (weather/climate, whatever) is really difficult when the entire climate all over the Earth is in rapid flux like it is now.
The existing data does not help much.
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Quoting jrweatherman:


Where do I start:)

Btw- what happened to all the lightning that was supposed to pound west florida? Getting some nice rain to the north of tampa but certainly nothing strong as you said would happen this morning.
It's gone. There are no recent lightning strokes off the immediate coast and the impressive blob further west this morning is rapidly dissipating. This seems to happen a lot when there's relatively low based convection heading toward central Florida. It has to be fairly strong to survive the trip over the continental shelf, and this thing wasn't.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Anybody still want to bash the CFSv2? Remember this model started the trend last Fall and now nearly all models are following by showing El-Nino this Summer.



we could go round and round me and others bashing the model and you defending it....i coould post about its recent past errors....and i could post from the experts stating the spring barrier period we are now in......

however...that's not what is important in this post...

here's what i don't understand.....you constantly post this model....and claim to believe its validity....and you as with the above referenced portion of the post also claim we will be in el nino this summer......ok...so be it....your stand....i'm not going to argue the merits of it....

i will though question the logic of it....as....if you believe in the model...the model shows....that el nino will not be created this summer....as the model if to be believed shows we are already in it and have been since last fall.....this summer will be the same el nino event...only stronger
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Thank you for the new and interesting entry, Mr. Henson. Not easy to get it right with all those different oscillations, so more explanations are always welcome.
---------------------------

US sea level north of New York City 'jumped by 128mm'
BBC, 24 February 2015 Last updated at 18:45 GMT
Sea levels along the northeast coast of the US rose by record levels during 2009-2010, a study has found.
Sea levels north of New York City rose by 128mm in two years, according to a report in the journal, Nature Communications.
Coastal areas will need to prepare for short term and extreme sea level events, say US scientists.
Climate models suggest extreme sea level rises will become more common this century.
"The extreme sea level rise event during 2009-10 along the northeast coast of North America is unprecedented during the past century," Prof Jianjun Yin of the University of Arizona told BBC News.
"Statistical analysis indicates that it is a 1-in-850 year event."
...
"This example illustrates how individual extreme events are influenced by multiple factors - in this case the global rise of sea levels, regional changes in ocean circulation, and wind patterns."
Dr Dan Hodson, also from the University of Reading, said the analysis underlined the importance of understanding the connections between surges in sea levels and ocean currents. ...
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Quoting 68. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good afternoon

It's a beautiful partly cloudy 84 here on the island today. For those of you stuck in the middle of winter woes, here's a picture of my view right now:

img src="">

I know, somebody's gotta do it so it might as well be me; right? ;-)

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy


Looks idyllic, but I don't think I could put up with the mosquito borne diseases. Chikungunya fever is becoming rife throughout the Caribbean islands, and Dengue fever is also widespread. I expect Florida will see a big increase in these diseases, particularly if it gets warmer and wetter. What's the situation with chikungunya in the Virgin islands?
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Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
Good afternoon

It's a beautiful partly cloudy 84 here on the island today. For those of you stuck in the middle of winter woes, here's a picture of my view right now:

img src="">

I know, somebody's gotta do it so it might as well be me; right? ;-)

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy
What's all that green stuff? Is that a lawn? I've heard they are green, but mine has been nothing but brown for four months. My neighbor's very large and very old banana palm is now a twisted mass of goo on the ground. Whatever pretensions I had about living in even a semi-tropical area are long gone after the last two winters. :-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Since I caught the indirect reference by a user a few posts back, I'll reinstate my claim last year that a positive PDO increases the likelihood of an El Nino but does not guarantee such. See also: 2014.


aye laddie...preach on....there's some that need to read this more than once!!!!!!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 63. yonzabam:

There's been a lot of speculation about the negative effects of climate change. I think the impact of changing rainfall distribution patterns may have been underestimated, and we may be seeing the early signs of that in California and southeast Brazil.

The main effect will probably be on agriculture, pushing food prices up, and causing global famine, refugees, riots and revolutions. But, lack of drinking water will also be very important. What happens when 20 million people around Sao Paolo run out of water? Doesn't bear thinking about.

I'm aware that the lack of rainfall in SE Brazil has been tied to deforestation in the Amazon basin. I'm not aware if it has yet been tied to climate change on a 'larger' scale. I'd be interested in reading about any studies or hypotheses about that, though.

I wholly agree that the results of 20 million people with scarce water resources is difficult to even consider. Unfathomable, even.

I posted an article yesterday on an earlier blog that had a graphic showing sections of Sao Paolo and their corresponding reservoirs' water levels. I'll dig it out and re-post it here.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Dude seriously give it a rest already, we should have had an El Nino last year according to the models, but that was an epic fail. And now we are supposed to trust that same model? Can't wait till it bust so I told you so. You seem to want to make everything about competition, so I'll play your little game. And of course if I had a dollar for every time you bashed the GFS, or Sar bashed the NWS, or jpsb bashed Global Warming. I'd probably be a millionaire right now. But of course there is always the exception to the crowd who need the attention.
Hey, I don't "bash" the NWS. I'm the first to praise them for a good job but I don't let things not done right slide by either. Regardless of how romantic you thing being a forecaster might be, it's a job with deliverables, just like any other job. When it's not done right or you've blown a part of your job, you can expect to take some heat. No one is perfect, but there's also no one - or no agency - above criticism.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 62. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Dude seriously give it a rest already, we should have had an El Nino last year according to the models, but that was an epic fail. And now we are supposed to trust that same model? Can't wait till it bust so I told you so. You seem to want to make everything about competition, so I'll play your little game. And of course if I had a dollar for every time you bashed the GFS, or Sar bashed the NWS, or jpsb bashed Global Warming. I'd probably be a millionaire right now. But of course there is always the exception to the crowd who need the attention.


LOL! Too funny but what I said was true and that was the point I was making a couple of weeks back when some decided to say the PDO has not much to do with El-NIno when Bob Henson said that positive PDO years tend to increase the frequency of El-Nino. It's funny that Bob 2 weeks later is saying what I was trying to get across to people. PDO has been in the tank for several years until late last year when things finally switched and i feel this was the missing piece to getting El-Nino going last Spring and into Summer.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 64. Naga5000:



Today's winner for "Best first post for a user with a registration date over 4 years old".

It's like the Oscar's here, Pat's going to give a speech on wage equality shortly, everyone grab a fresca.

ahem,

Is this on ?

When a employer tells you he is going to pay you min wage, what He really is saying, "I'd pay you less,but the Gub'ment won't let me"

Thank you,


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
"Catastrophic AGW" I still wasn't aware that was more than a fabrication by the science denial industry. Fancy that, the term doesn't exist in the scientific literature.

"CAGW, for "catastrophic anthropogenic global warming," is a snarl word (or snarl acronym) that global warming denialists use for the established science of climate change. A Google Scholar search indicates that the term is never used in the scientific literature on climate.[1]

It's not clear just when or how the denialists adopted CAGW over from the acronym AGW (anthropogenic global warming) used by normal folk. The term was used in blog comments at the New York Times[2] and ScienceBlogs as early as 2008,[3] and is likely to have been used earlier. By around 2011 CAGW had become commonplace in denialist blogs such as those of Anthony Watts or Judith Curry, and over the next year or two essentially replaced AGW in such esteemed venues. Despite the qualifier, denialists apply the term indiscriminately to anything approximating the mainstream scientific view on climate, regardless of whether or not "catastrophic" outcomes are implied.

As for motivation, it's an attempt to move the goalposts. Denialists realized they had lost the argument over plain old "anthropogenic global warming" — the basic physics of the problem have been known since the 19th century,[4] so that rejecting AGW outright paints oneself as a loon. Adding "catastrophic" gives plenty of wiggle room for denialism" Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
The record-breaking positive PDO has been something else these past few months. Not hard to see why it's been so warm in the West and cold in the East.

Since I caught the indirect reference by a user a few posts back, I'll reinstate my claim last year that a positive PDO increases the likelihood of an El Nino but does not guarantee such. See also: 2014.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon

It's a beautiful partly cloudy 84 here on the island today. For those of you stuck in the middle of winter woes, here's a picture of my view right now:

img src="">

I know, somebody's gotta do it so it might as well be me; right? ;-)

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
67. jpsb
Quoting 58. SeriouslySushi:


Does this blog moderate for that, the way Dr Rood's does?


Be polite and you may express a dissenting view here. Dr Masters does not enforce any particular orthodogy. And I must I greatly respect him for allowing debate on his blog. However if the topic is (Catastrophic) AGW and you are a skeptic you can expect to be treated badly by true believers here. Be advised the mods will punish you if you badly abuse the posting rules (see the top of this page).

If you are interested in weather this is probably the best English speaking site on the net. I hear tropicaltidbits is good too but I have no first hand knowledge of that site.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 58. SeriouslySushi:


Does this blog moderate for that, the way Dr Rood's does?

I honestly don't know. I think if enough of the community flag it, it goes away, and then a mod/admin reviews it, and if he/she finds it acceptable, it is re-instated.

I think the mods will remove a post from the get-go if it clearly breaks the rules.

Mods - let us know if I've got this wrong.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 44. dabirds:

Interesting WRF hydrus, to match our local forecasts that snow should be earlier and more East. Checked several after saw that and all still call for snow chance Wed eve, Thurs morning (36-48 hrs). Also noticed Sun for StL shows 41 & rain, and one to N shows a mix still, so suspect the one I saw saying only snow w/ above freezing temps was a misprint & should have been mix (or rain even). Guess we'll see tomorrow which is correct.

Getting any melt today?
Still a few spots that are frozen , but most of it is gone. A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for tomorrow. It came in as I was typing this. I am looking forward to warmer weather , but there are indications some severe weather may occur. I have some pictures of the ice storm and will post them soon as I can.
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Quoting 56. robertpyoung:

No we are not. Now shut up


Today's winner for "Best first post for a user with a registration date over 4 years old".

It's like the Oscar's here, Pat's going to give a speech on wage equality shortly, everyone grab a fresca.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
There's been a lot of speculation about the negative effects of climate change. I think the impact of changing rainfall distribution patterns may have been underestimated, and we may be seeing the early signs of that in California and southeast Brazil.

The main effect will probably be on agriculture, pushing food prices up, and causing global famine, refugees, riots and revolutions. But, lack of drinking water will also be very important. What happens when 20 million people around Sao Paolo run out of water? Doesn't bear thinking about.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 47. StormTrackerScott:



Anybody still want to bash the CFSv2? Remember this model started the trend last Fall and now nearly all models are following by showing El-Nino this Summer.
Dude seriously give it a rest already, we should have had an El Nino last year according to the models, but that was an epic fail. And now we are supposed to trust that same model? Can't wait till it bust so I told you so. You seem to want to make everything about competition, so I'll play your little game. And of course if I had a dollar for every time you bashed the GFS, or Sar bashed the NWS, or jpsb bashed Global Warming. I'd probably be a millionaire right now. But of course there is always the exception to the crowd who need the attention.
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Quoting 50. weathermanwannabe:

I need a globe like the one pictured below from the Pacific Science Center for my living room...................

Really? Just how big is your living room? :D
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Tokelau's low-lying Nukunonu Atoll, is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. UN Photo/Ariane Rummery (file photo)

2015 pivotal for finalizing universal climate change agreement, Ban tells Member States

23 February 2015 – This year is pivotal for global action on climate change, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said today in New York, emphasising that all the major advances of 2014 have set the stage for success in 2015.

“Our challenge now is clear: to finalize a meaningful, universal agreement on climate change,” Mr. Ban told Member States at a briefing on relevant progress as momentum builds towards a meeting to be held in Paris this December, when leaders are expected to reach a landmark treaty.

“Addressing climate change is essential for realizing sustainable development. If we fail to adequately address climate change, we will be unable to build a world that supports a life of dignity for all,” the Secretary-General warned.

Joining Mr. Ban at the briefing was President of the UN General Assembly, Sam Kutesa, as well as the Permanent Representatives of Peru and France, who organized the gathering.

Today's briefing follows the 20th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), held in Lima, last December where Member States reached the “Lima Call for Climate Action”, paving the way for a new, ambitious and universally-binding climate agreement to be adopted in Paris (COP21) this December.

Talks in Lima are also said to have contributed to furthering negotiations during last week's Geneva Climate Change Conference, where Parties also delivered a comprehensive and balanced text.

“Recent months have seen strong progress on climate change. At the Climate Summit I convened last September, I said we needed 'all hands on deck.' I am pleased to say that this is indeed what happened: Governments, along with leaders of finance, business and civil society, came together to announce significant new actions that can reduce emissions and strengthen resilience,” said Mr. Ban.

The Secretary-General's September Summit also catalyzed “much-needed momentum” on climate finance. Public and private sector leaders pledged to mobilize over $200 billion by the end of 2015 to finance low-carbon, climate-resilient growth. And in Lima, in December, Parties built on earlier announcements by the European Union, China and the United States to reduce their emissions. They also launched the Lima Paris Action Agenda and pledged the $10 billion needed for the initial capitalization of the Green Climate Fund.

The Secretary-General underscored that 2015 is particularly crucial for several landmark meetings: COP21 in Paris in December to adopt a universal text on climate change; UN special summit in September to adopt a global development agenda; financing for development conference in July in Addis Ababa, to renew commitment to global development; and next month's gathering in Sendai, Japan, to strengthen framework on disaster risk reduction.

To that end, Mr. Ban urged all pledging countries to deliver their contributions as soon as possible. “Climate finance is critical, not only for catalyzing action, but for building the political trust needed to reach a universal agreement in Paris,” he said, emphasizing that developed countries need to set out a clear trajectory for achieving the goal of mobilizing $100 billion per year by 2020. And resilience must be strengthened, especially in the small island states and least developed countries.

“We have no time to waste, and much to gain by moving quickly down a lower-carbon pathway. All countries must be part of the solution if we are to stay below the 2 degrees Celsius temperature rise threshold,” the Secretary-General said.

Also delivering remarks today, Assembly President Kutesa called on Member States to build on the “constructive spirit” that prevailed in Lima and Geneva to reach consensus on both the content and the legal nature of the final agreement.

“To successfully reach this objective, strong and sustained political will is of vital necessity,” he added, reiterating that climate change is one of the key priorities of his 69th General Assembly: a session which is striving to shape the post-2015 development agenda, financing for development, as well as a new global framework on disaster reduction.

Negotiations for all these pertinent issues must be “mutually reinforcing,” Mr. Kutesa explained, noting that his high-level event on climate change to be held on 29 June is an opportunity to ensure the necessary focus and momentum are maintained. “I encourage Member States to participate in this event at the highest political level to convey a strong message on the critical importance of the negotiation process.”

The international community must demonstrate its commitment toward delivering a final agreement in Paris that improves lives, promotes achievement of sustainable development, protects the environment and preserves our planet's integrity, he added.

“As we make the final push toward Paris, it is abundantly clear that expectations are high. The world is watching with great anticipation to see how we respond to this historic opportunity to shape the future of our planet,” Mr. Kutesa emphasized.

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Quoting robertpyoung:
No we are not. Now shut up



Reported
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Quoting 52. LAbonbon:

# 46 - MoeHoward

Baseless accusations and ridiculous allegations of massive conspiracies may be acceptable on other sites...but here? Not so much.

Does this blog moderate for that, the way Dr Rood's does?
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I do remember a few lost souls saying that PDO has nothing to do with El-Nino. One of those individuals is in school at the moment.
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Quoting 46. MoeHoward:

Great blog! NASA and NOAA can accelerate the manipulation of the climate data and soon it will be even hotter. It confirms what I learned in accounting class: "Figures don't lie but liars figure." That perfectly sums up the global warming hoax, don't you think?


Perfectly sums up you, I'd say.
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Marco Island
Earlier with the fog just offshore.


Now the fog has moved in. No working on your sun tan at the moment.

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The next speaker at the Portlight sponsored Getting it Right Workshop in Va. will begin in a few minutes.

LIVESTREAM

2:30 pm 4:00pm Cathie Hutchins, Virginia Senior Assistant Attorney General

Cathie Hutchins is with the Office of the Attorney General providing legal counsel to various public safety agencies. In this role she will review the state code as it applies to emergencies, shelter liabilities and the legal areas that need to be addressed at the local level.

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# 46 - MoeHoward

Baseless accusations and ridiculous allegations of massive conspiracies may be acceptable on other sites...but here? Not so much.
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Raining very hard here in Longwood.

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I need a globe like the one pictured below from the Pacific Science Center for my living room...................
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don't you think?


% 97 of us do,...

: P


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48. jpsb
Quoting 40. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Sunspots have nothing to due with CO2 concentrations on Earth and the resulting Global Warming that occurs. I have no idea where people get this stuff from. At least if you are going make up stuff come up with something new.


Maybe they get it from NOAA?

One interesting aspect of solar cycles is that the sun went through a period of near zero sunspot activity from about 1645 to 1715. This period of sunspot minima is called the Maunder Minimum. The "Little Ice Age" occurred over parts of Earth during the Maunder Minimum. So how much does the solar output affect Earth's climate? There is debate within the scientific community how much solar activity can, or does affect Earth's climate. There is research which shows evidence that Earth's climate is sensitive to very weak changes in the Sun's energy output over time frames of 10s and 100s of years. Times of maximum sunspot activity are associated with a very slight increase in the energy output from the sun. Ultraviolet radiation increases dramatically during high sunspot activity, which can have a large effect on the Earth's atmosphere. The converse is true during minimum sunspot activity. But trying to filter the influence of the Sun's energy output and its effect on our climate with the "noise" created by a complex interaction between our atmosphere, land and oceans can be difficult.


http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fsd/?n=sunspots
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Quoting 32. GTstormChaserCaleb:

What next for the PDO?
The PDO index, as calculated at the University of Washington, scored positive values during every month in 2014, the first such streak since 2003. By December it reached +2.51, the largest positive value for any December in records that go back to 1900. The January value from UW was 2.45, again a monthly record. (NOAA calculates its own PDO values through a closely related methodology.)

Because the PDO can flip modes for a year or more within its longer-term cycle, we don’t yet know whether a significant shift to a positive PDO phase has begun. If trade winds weaken throughout this year, and positive PDO values persist, that’ll be strong evidence that a new cycle is indeed under way. The last time we saw a two-year streak of positive values was in 1992-93. If this occurs, and assuming no spikes in major volcanic activity, we could expect greater rises in global temperature over the next 10 to 15 years than we’ve seen during the hiatus. In addition, we should watch for El Niño to make its presence known more often.

I guess Goodbye active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons?




Anybody still want to bash the CFSv2? Remember this model started the trend last Fall and now nearly all models are following by showing El-Nino this Summer.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Latest CFSV2 is joining the Euro again with Strong El-Nino this Fall infact at moderate levels during the peak of Hurricane Season come September.

September (Moderate El-Nino)


October heading for (Strong El-Nino)
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Interesting WRF hydrus, to match our local forecasts that snow should be earlier and more East. Checked several after saw that and all still call for snow chance Wed eve, Thurs morning (36-48 hrs). Also noticed Sun for StL shows 41 & rain, and one to N shows a mix still, so suspect the one I saw saying only snow w/ above freezing temps was a misprint & should have been mix (or rain even). Guess we'll see tomorrow which is correct.

Getting any melt today?
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Quoting 31. wxgeek723:

Not something you see every day:



Ha, been following that today. My inlaws have a couple inches of snow I believe back in Pamlico county. We had some very bizarre snows in the eastern NC region...gradiants that were lake effect like.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather