Are We Entering a New Period of Rapid Global Warming?

By: Bob Henson , 5:04 PM GMT on February 24, 2015

Residents of New England may understandably look back at 2015 as the year of their never-ending winter. For the planet as a whole, though, this year could stand out most for putting to rest the “hiatus”— the 15-year slowdown in atmospheric warming that gained intense scrutiny by pundits, scientists, and the public. While interesting in its own right, the hiatus garnered far more attention than it deserved as a purported sign that future global warming would be much less than expected. The slowdown was preceded by almost 20 years of dramatic global temperature rise, and with 2014 having set a new global record high, there are signs that another decade-plus period of intensified atmospheric warming may be at our doorstep.

The most compelling argument for a renewed surge in global air temperature is rooted in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This index tracks the fingerprint of sea surface temperature (SST) across the Pacific north of 20°N. A closely related index, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), covers a larger swath of the entire Pacific. Both the PDO and IPO capture back-and-forth swings in the geography of Pacific SSTs that affect the exchange of heat between ocean and atmosphere (see Figure 1). We’ll use PDO as shorthand for both indexes in the following discussion.

The PDO typically leans toward a positive or negative state for more than a decade at a time. The positive phase, which features warmer-than-average SSTs along the U.S. West Coast, was dominant from the mid-1970s to the late 1990s. The PDO then flipped to a negative phase between about 1999 and 2013, with cooler-than-average SSTs along the West Coast. Figure 2 shows that even when a particular mode is favored, the PDO can still flip back to its opposite mode for periods of a few months or so.


Figure 1. Departures from average sea-surface temperature (degrees C) and wind (arrows) that typically prevail when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in its positive mode (left) and negative mode (right). Image credit: University of Washington.


It’s not clear exactly what drives the PDO, but in some ways it can be viewed as a geographically expanded version of the SST patterns created by El Niño and La Niña, averaged over a longer time period. (See Figure 2.) It’s well-established that El Niño can raise global temperature for a few months by several tenths of a degree Celsius, as warm water spreads over the eastern tropical Pacific and mixes with the overlying atmosphere. Likewise, La Niña can act to pull down global average temperature, as cooler-than-average water extends further west than usual across the tropical Pacific. The PDO mirrors these trends, but over longer periods. When the PDO is positive, there are more El Niño and fewer La Niña events, and heat stored in the ocean tends to be spread across a larger surface area, allowing it to enter the atmosphere more easily. When the PDO is negative, SSTs are below average across a larger area, and global air temperatures tend to be lower.


Figure 2. Typical warm and cool anomalies in sea-surface temperature during positive PDO years (left) and El Niño years (right). The patterns are similar, though with differences in intensity over some regions. The anomalies are reversed for negative PDO and La Niña years. Image credit: University of Washington Climate Impacts Group.


Figure 3 shows a striking connection between favored PDO modes (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). The vast majority of atmospheric warming over the last century occurred during positive PDO phases, with negative PDOs tending to result in flat temperature trends. It’s easy to see how an atmospheric warming “hiatus” could occur during a negative PDO phase.


Figure 3. PDO values (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). Gray shading indicates positive PDO periods, when atmospheric warming was most evident. The NOAA PDO values shown here vary slightly from those discussed in the article, which are calculated by the University of Washington. Image credit: Jerimiah Brown, Weather Underground. Data sources:NOAA (top) and NOAA/NCDC (bottom).


From the AMS meeting
The hiatus was discussed at length in a series of talks during the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society last month in Phoenix. Jerry Meehl, from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (my former employer), gave a whirlwind 15-minute overview of hiatus-oriented research conducted over the last six years. Meehl’s talk can be viewed online. More than 20 papers have studied the hiatus and its links to the PDO/IPO, according to Matthew England (University of New South Wales). Most of the flattening of global temperature during the hiatus can be traced to cooler-than-average conditions over the eastern tropical Pacific, which pulled down global averages. An emerging theme is that natural, or internal, variability in the tropical Pacific can explain at least half of the hiatus. NCAR’s Clara Deser presented new modeling evidence along these lines (see video online). Other factors may be involved as well, including a series of weak volcanic eruptions that could explain a small part of the hiatus, according to a recent analysis by Ben Santer (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory).

One crucial point is that global warming didn’t “stop” during the hiatus: the world’s oceans actually gained heat at an accelerated pace. Trade winds blew more strongly from east to west across the Pacific, consistent with the tendency toward La Niña conditions, as described in this open-access article by NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo. Over parts of the central tropical Pacific, trade winds averaged about 3 mph stronger during 1999-2012 compared to 1976-1988. These speeds are higher than for any previous hiatus on record, bolstering the idea that other factors may have joined this negative PDO/IPO phase. The faster trade winds encouraged upwelling of cooler water to the east and helped deepen and strengthen the warm pool to the west—enough, in fact, to raise sea level around the Philippines by as much as 8 inches. Other parts of the deep ocean warmed as well. A new study led by Dean Roemmich (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) maps the areas of greatest ocean heating from 2006 to 2013 and finds that significant warming extended to depths of greater than 6600 feet.

What next for the PDO?
The PDO index, as calculated at the University of Washington, scored positive values during every month in 2014, the first such streak since 2003. By December it reached +2.51, the largest positive value for any December in records that go back to 1900. The January value from UW was 2.45, again a monthly record. (NOAA calculates its own PDO values through a closely related methodology.)

Because the PDO can flip modes for a year or more within its longer-term cycle, we don’t yet know whether a significant shift to a positive PDO phase has begun. If trade winds weaken throughout this year, and positive PDO values persist, that’ll be strong evidence that a new cycle is indeed under way. The last time we saw a two-year streak of positive values was in 1992-93. If this occurs, and assuming no spikes in major volcanic activity, we could expect greater rises in global temperature over the next 10 to 15 years than we’ve seen during the hiatus. In addition, we should watch for El Niño to make its presence known more often.

“I am inclined to think the hiatus is over, mainly based on the PDO index change,” NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth told me. While Matthew England isn’t ready to offer such a prediction, he emphasized that any post-hiatus global temperature rise is likely to be fairly rapid. Trenberth also commented on an interesting NOAA analysis (see Figure 4): “If one takes the global mean temperature from 1970 on, everything fits a linear trend quite well except 1998.”


Figure 4. When looking at global temperature over a full PDO cycle (1970s to 2010s), the overall rise becomes evident, despite the flattening observed in the last 15 years. Image credit: NOAA.


A record-strong El Niño occurred in 1998, providing an unusually powerful boost to global temperature and fueling years of subsequent declarations that “global warming stopped in 1998.” The record warmth of 2014 made it clear that global warming has no intention of stopping, and the next few years are likely to reinforce that point. Nevertheless, snowbound New Englanders, and millions of other easterners now dealing with record cold for so late in the year, may be wondering why eastern North America has seen so much cold and snow in the past few winters--especially this one--and how long that climatic quirk might continue. Stay tuned for a separate post on that topic.

Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Good Morning..

Brad Panovich Meteorologist
45 mins ·

No excuses for last night it was a big miss South of I-85 and to a much lesser amount north. Still worth reading about what we do and here's, Breaking News we aren't right all the time!

Perspective on the accuracy of Meterologists
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
792. jpsb
Quoting 625. DCSwithunderscores:



FAKE!

That Time magazine cover is fake. The image of the penguin is from April 9, 2007 Time magazine, but the headline that went with it on the cover was "The Global Warming Survival Guide". Someone took an image of that cover and changed the headline to "How To Survive The Coming Ice Age", and changed the date to April 9, 1977.

This just shows the level of deceit that some people go to to promote their anti-science agenda.

Here's an article that tells the story of that altered Time magazine cover:

Link


Nice catch, using fake data and faking documents is a serious offense. I will give the poster the benefit of the doubt that he got fooled by not going to the ordinal source. The same has happened to me, very embarrassing! These days I check my sources carefully :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I have a poly-sci degree and one of the best books out there, if still in print, is the "Dictionary of Political Terms"; it defines words like socialism, communism, conservatism, etc and actually breaks down the origins of the words, the proponents, and major writings. One of the biggest problems today, in social and political circles, is that people throw the words around to try and slander people (they are commies, liberals, right-wingers, etc) as a scare tactic and they don't even know the actual meaning of the words. The world has changed alot in the past 40 years and many people/politicians/governments actually have "hybrid" forms of government or beliefs. Case in point; the Chinese are "communists" but arguably, they are currently some of the best "capitalists" in the world........Just Sayin.
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Quoting 783. CarolinaHurricanes87:

Good morning everyone. HUGE busted forecast here in Charlotte. Even after the storm had begun, local mets predicted 7-10, NWS 5-9, and TWC 5-8. Official storm total ended up at 1.8". Sad day for snow lovers


Just saw some pictures my family took in High Point, looks to be about what the NWS predicted (4-8", looks to be close to half a foot maybe less). Of course they're in Raleigh's zone whereas Charlotte is GSA.

edit: looked at the preliminary report, PTI received 6.4", that's about 7 miles from where the photos were taken so not a bad guess. Proud'a myself ;^)
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789. jpsb
Quoting 586. weblackey:



I am delurking, uh oh.

Don't overlook this very important part of Jedkins' comment: "...it's only as good as the people who run it, but it's better than the other forms of government, despite it's many flaws and weaknesses"

I agree with that, capitalism without moderation is not healthy, nor sustainable, and not only in the ecological sense, economically too. Seems to me he wasn't bashing capitalism, he was critiquing it.


Unrestrained capitalism would be a cruel form of economics to live under. Capitalism moderated by humane (Christian) law and implemented by honest men is the best economic system yet devised. Once long ago in the USA we had such a system, today not so much.
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Quoting 785. tampabaymatt:



I feel your pain. That show is awful, but the wife is a big fan.
All the pre-show hype from them is what drove me outside anyway and the approaching storm was the perfect excuse for me to bail..................
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
And here is the current Conus Jet per GFS driving the NW system:



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Quoting 775. win1gamegiantsplease:



Ah, southwest Virginia, where your weather becomes the Triad's problem when watching the television. I remember a while ago watching the NCAA Tourney and there was a tornado watch or something and Henry County or Halifax County had a warning and they put the game in a little corner and talked about the weather happening ~2 hrs away. God forbid too, I think Duke was playing...
Yeah the local mets are pretty crazy when it comes to weather around here. If a nice squall line starts this way, every news station will take over the entire channel for 45 mins to an hour saying how dangerous wind and lightening is. Almost like we have never had a thunderstorm here. Lol
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Quoting 782. weathermanwannabe:

The Wife was very upset because her and her visiting sisters were lined up in the living room, waiting for Empire to come on at 9:00 when the power went out...........Exciting for me and a bummer for them......................... :)


I feel your pain. That show is awful, but the wife is a big fan.
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Here is the NWS Conus weather outlook for today; nice to see some potential snowpack for parts of the NW but they need more further South in the Sierras/CA to help water supplies there for the Spring once the wet season ends:

Heavy rain and mountain snow is in store for the Pacific Northwest as a fresh batch of Arctic air surges through the central U.S

Conditions will become increasingly wet over the West the next few days as a system dives southward down the British Columbia coast. Pacific moisture will fuel soaking rain and accumulating mountain snow over western Washington Wednesday night then shift south over western Oregon on Thursday. Meanwhile, a fresh batch of Arctic air will continue to plunge through the central U.S.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Good morning everyone. HUGE busted forecast here in Charlotte. Even after the storm had begun, local mets predicted 7-10, NWS 5-9, and TWC 5-8. Official storm total ended up at 1.8". Sad day for snow lovers
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The Wife was very upset because her and her visiting sisters were lined up in the living room, waiting for Empire to come on at 9:00 when the power went out...........Exciting for me and a bummer for them......................... :)
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Quoting 776. luvtogolf:

Crazy winds last night but things have calmed down. No rain here at all. I'm off to the links.

Jrweatherman. - listen to the smart guys. It took me a long time but I did.


Have a good one! We picked up .28 in about 35 minutes here in Orlando, lots of wind, and a clap of thunder.
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780. jpsb
Quoting 424. Naga5000:

Mass agricultural production is not done in a greenhouse.

CO2 is good for your greenhouse, mass agriculture is not done in greenhouses.


Hmmm, food for thought, good info I will look into it.
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Cyclone Marcia leaves thousands of tourism jobs at risk
Brisbane Times, February 26, 2015 - 6:30AM
Thousands of tourism jobs on the cyclone-hit Capricornia Coast could be lost if the region's national parks are not quickly repaired, a senior tourism figure says.
The region's big tourism drawcards - the rainforest of coastal Byfield National Park and Great Keppel Island – were both extensively damaged by Cyclone Marcia last week.
There are still 100 national parks and protected areas on the Capricornia Coast closed or badly damaged, according to Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service's Environmental Recovery Unit executive director Clive Cook. ...



The main access road to Byfield National Park after Tropical Cyclone Marcia. Photo: Queensland Parks and Wildlife Se
Whole article see link above.
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Good Morning. We only had a few strong t-storms come through Tallahassee last night when the front/low came through. One of the strongest cells passed through downtown around 8:15 heading NE towards my parts north of town. Went outside to watch it from the garage and it was quite exciting, with all the tall trees silhouetted against the sky, swaying as the outflow got nearer; had a couple of gusts in the range of 40-50 mph really bend them over in a 60 second span then the power went out in the neighborhood. Got to see the whole event from outside and the power was back on by 11:30...............No vid as it was too dark but super cool.
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Winter Storm Remus Hits the South: Drivers Stranded on Alabama Roads Overnight; Hundreds of Thousands Without Power Published Feb 26 2015 09:05 AM EST Winter Storm Remus dumped as much as a foot of snow on the South, and its trek will continue up the East Coast on Thursday.

In addition to heavy snow, the storm system left hundreds of thousands without power. Businesses and schools were closed as the entire region slowed to a halt when the snow began to fall.

Here's the latest on the storm:

Alabama
More than a foot of snow was reported in parts of northern Alabama from Remus. The storm's highest total so far, 12.7 inches, was reported in Guin and confirmed by the National Weather Service.

The National Weather Service in Huntsville issued a local area emergency in 10 northern Alabama counties, as roads in the area became increasingly treacherous throughout the day Wednesday. Wednesday night, roads were all but impassable because of heavy snow, according to local reports.

In Marion County in northwest Alabama, at least one person was injured when a tree fell on a mobile home, the National Weather Service reported Wednesday.

A few thousand power outages lingered Thursday morning across North Alabama, according to local utility companies.

Many schools in the state have announced closures for Thursday. Click here for the latest list.

Arkansas
Snow changed to rain over most of Arkansas Wednesday night, but some parts of the state reported snow accumulations of up to 8 inches at the height of the storm.

In advance of the storm, some school districts canceled Wednesday classes with many more closings and delayed reporting for Thursday, as well.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 769. Storms306:

Pittsylvania county VA and we have a grand total of 8 inches here.


Ah, southwest Virginia, where your weather becomes the Triad's problem when watching the television. I remember a while ago watching the NCAA Tourney and there was a tornado watch or something and Henry County or Halifax County had a warning and they put the game in a little corner and talked about the weather happening ~2 hrs away. God forbid too, I think Duke was playing...
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El Nino start to go up in later march into april its move up fast!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 737. beell:

From the "Let's run with an attention-grabbing headline and worry about the science later" department.

Deadliest Tornado Outbreak in Decades Was Fueled by Smoke From Land Clearing
April 2011 saw the worst day of U.S. tornadoes since 1974, and a new analysis points to fires in Central America as part of the cause.-National Geographic/February 9th, 2015


"We're not saying that the outbreak happened because of the smoke," "We're saying that, given the conditions already in place, the smoke intensified the tornadoes."
Pablo Saide, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Iowa, in Iowa City...

"This case is such an outlier in so many ways, it makes it difficult for me to believe the findings,"
Greg Carbin, a meteorologist at the the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma...

In the hopes of convincing Carbin and the forecasting community of the power of aerosols, Saide plans to test his simulations on other tornado outbreaks.

I'm glad that more research was being done. I certainly didn't find a single study convincing.

Intriguing? Raises interesting questions? Sure.
Convincing? Not yet.
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Quoting 768. jrweatherman:



But scientists can also be wrong.


Certainly, but without any supporting evidence that just an unjustified accusation or maybe even a libelous attack, depending on the situation.

At this point, maybe science should be a package deal...don't support 200 years of climate science, then sorry, we are all out of antibiotics and internets.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 766. jrweatherman:



That has been said for the past year and a half.
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Quoting 768. jrweatherman:



But scientists can also be wrong.

Sure they can. But are you honestly telling me that you are going to live your whole life not believing what scientists say about anything because of the tiny chance that "scientists can also be wrong?"
That just doesn't make logical sense, and the results wouldn't be in your favor.

I recommend that you look into the concept of risk and how it is typically evaluated. One big example... do emergency managers wait until the chance of a hurricane eyewall strike is 100% before they begin taking substantial action that has high cost? Do the storm surge exceedance probability maps often indicate values above 50-60%?
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Quoting 763. win1gamegiantsplease:



Greenville NC?
Pittsylvania county VA and we have a grand total of 8 inches here.
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Quoting 765. maxcrc:

We can't mix the long term trend with short term trends which are indeed influenced by short term factors like ENSO cycles, solar 11-year cycle, PDO, AMO indexes and others...
Global sticks and hiatuses are normal to follow one after the other.
We don't have to give them more importance to what they effectively have.


And scientists who've looked at all of these different influences on temperature have shown that the warming trend from the enhanced greenhouse effect continues, unchanged.
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We can't mix the long term trend with short term trends which are indeed influenced by short term factors like ENSO cycles, solar 11-year cycle, PDO, AMO indexes and others...
Global sticks and hiatuses are normal to follow one after the other.
We don't have to give them more importance to what they effectively have.
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Here comes Summerlike temps.

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Quoting 712. Storms306:

Heavy wet snow falling in Pitt county now. Sticking to anything and everything.


Greenville NC?
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All of this rain across C FL being depicted by the NAM is from Friday Night thru Saturday. As usual all the models agree on this except the GFS.

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Quoting 757. hurricanes2018:

El Nino will be here soon by spring time


Yup by CPC's criteria we should have an official declaration of El-Nino this Spring as we have met the 5 month criteria and Nino 3.4 continues to rise as there is a large warm pool gathering beneath that region. I think this is why so many models have Nino 3.4 rising over 1C come June.

NINO 1 2 NINO 3 NINO 3.4 NIN0 4 N. ATL S. ATL TROPICS
MONTH 0-10S 5N-5S 5N-5S 5N-5S 5N-20N 0-20S 10N-10S
90W-80W 150W-90W 170W-120W 160E-150W 60W-30W 30W-10E 0W-360W
JAN 15 -0.4 24.1 0.4 26.00.5 27.1 0.9 29.2 0.1 26.1 0.1 25.7 0.2 27.9
DEC 14 0.1 22.9 0.8 25.9 0.8 27.4 0.9 29.4 0.0 26.8 -0.4 24.4 0.3 28.0
NOV 14 0.7 22.3 0.9 25.9 0.9 27.5 0.9 29.5 0.1 27.7 -0.5 23.5 0.3 28.0
OCT 14 0.8 21.5 0.7 25.6 0.5 27.2 0.6 29.3 0.3 28.4 -0.1 23.3 0.3 27.8
SEP 14 1.0 21.3 0.5 25.3 0.5 27.2 0.7 29.3 0.1 28.2 -0.1 23.0 0.3 27.5

some of these latest models have a Eastern Based El-Nino which is characteristic of what one would expect when looking for a stronger El-Nino. .



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Quoting 745. tiggerhurricanes2001:

I've noticed that most of the warmest water in the equatorial Pacific ocean is located in the central and western Pacific basins, and a cooling trend in the east Pacific basin. I've also noticed that some of the atmospheric effects of an el nino are bakwards, characteristics of modoki el nino. So, what are the chances/probabilities of a modoki el nino developing?


I don't even know how often they occur, last one was what 2004?
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759. MahFL
I had a power outage last night from 2:30 am to 6:30 am. We got 0.47 in of rain from the squall line here in Orange Park.
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Going to get hot next week could even be some areas across the interior that hit 90.

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Quoting 754. jrweatherman:

The boy who cried El Nino is still at it. Lol
El Nino will be here soon by spring time
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:



LIGHT SNOW COMING TO EAST HAVEN SOON!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 745. tiggerhurricanes2001:

I've noticed that most of the warmest water in the equatorial Pacific ocean is located in the central and western Pacific basins, and a cooling trend in the east Pacific basin. I've also noticed that some of the atmospheric effects of an el nino are bakwards, characteristics of modoki el nino. So, what are the chances/probabilities of a modoki el nino developing?
Very good, unless you listen to a certain blogger on here.
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cloudy and cold in east haven right now with temp around 20F
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Sub surface warm pool continues to grow further with now 5C anomalies beginning to show up. Very impressive warm pool gathering.

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Afghans in frantic search for avalanche survivors
BBC, 26 February 2015 Last updated at 10:24 GMT
Afghan rescuers are searching for dozens of people believed to be trapped under snow after a series of deadly avalanches north of the capital, Kabul.
Officials said at least 187 people had been killed and 129 injured after homes were deluged with snow.
Funerals for the victims, mostly from Panjshir province, have been delayed because of the snow.
The extreme weather came after a relatively dry and mild winter, and took locals by surprise. ...


Afghanistan avalanches: more than 180 dead
Officials warned of an imminent humanitarian emergency in areas most severely hit by the heavy snow
Reuters in Kabul, Thursday 26 February 2015 12.09 GMT
... “We haven’t seen this much snow, or this many avalanches, for 30 years,” said Abdul Rahman Kabiri, acting governor of the mountainous province of Panjshir, north of Kabul, where 186 people were killed and more than 100 injured in avalanches.
Despite bringing misery to so many people, the snow is vital for Afghanistan, where much of the rural population dependent on agriculture relies on snow melting in the mountains to sustain crops in the spring and summer. An unusually dry winter had led to fears of drought. ...


-------------------------------------------

Good morning from Europe with a huge cyclone over Iceland ("Winfried") and its front approaching the continent and surface low "Volker" near Sicily (embedded in a deep trough) annoying the folks in the Mediterranean.




Click to enlarge. Source.

Blizzard and Avalanche Risk in West Fjords
Iceland Review, By Eygló Svala Arnarsdóttir, February 26, 2015 09:27Updated: February 26, 2015 09:29

Well, and that's Europe as well, from Iceland down to the coast of Libya - yesterday I've read elsewhere that brutal smugglers in failed state Libya now recklessly force refugees out to sea in small dinghies, no matter how bad the weather is and how high waves may roar:

Icelandic Ship Assists in Rescue of 300 Refugees
Iceland Review, By Zoë Robert, February 26, 2015 00:02Updated: February 26, 2015 00:15
Icelandic Coast Guard vessel Týr assisted in the rescue of 284 refugees in the Mediterranean on Tuesday. A total of 184 refugees were rescued from two small dinghies north of the Libyan coast, ruv.is reports.
A further 100 refugees were rescued by an Italian patrol boat and transferred to Týr for treatment, meaning that there are currently 284 refugees, 163 men, 20 women, some of whom were pregnant, and one child, on board Týr. The patrol boat is heading for Italy and was expected to dock in Augusta in Sicily early yesterday afternoon. ...
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.17 today on top of .29 on Tuesday gives me a Monthly total so far of 3.97" for February with more rain to end out February which all short range models shows atleast a solid 1" of rain from Friday night thru Saturday across C FL.

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Quoting 748. islander101010:

evidence??? its flawed. growth of concrete has outpaced the warming


Rural and Urban areas have shown the same increasing trend. The Arctic is warming faster than just about anywhere on the planet. And if you are going to respond to my comment, at least have the guts to quote my post. Thanks for playing as always.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
evidence??? its flawed. growth of concrete has outpaced the warming
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Sorry about the semi double post.
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Quoting 744. LargoFl:

Matt did you get any rain?..not a drop here just some wind early this morning


Same here! Not a single drop. I woke up around 3 AM and checked the radar and it looked like a solid line was heading our way. Then, when I really woke up at 5:30, my rain gauge showed nothing and n
Quoting 744. LargoFl:

Matt did you get any rain?..not a drop here just some wind early this morning


Same here! Not a drop of rain. I woke up at 3 AM and checked the radar and it looked like a solid line was heading towards us. Then, when I really woke up at 5:30, the rain gauge showed that nothing happened and everything was dry outside. Weird.....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I've noticed that most of the warmest water in the equatorial Pacific ocean is located in the central and western Pacific basins, and a cooling trend in the east Pacific basin. I've also noticed that some of the atmospheric effects of an el nino are bakwards, characteristics of modoki el nino. So, what are the chances/probabilities of a modoki el nino developing?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 732. tampabaymatt:


Matt did you get any rain?..not a drop here just some wind early this morning
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the next storm more snow for boston!
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather