Are We Entering a New Period of Rapid Global Warming?

By: Bob Henson , 5:04 PM GMT on February 24, 2015

Residents of New England may understandably look back at 2015 as the year of their never-ending winter. For the planet as a whole, though, this year could stand out most for putting to rest the “hiatus”— the 15-year slowdown in atmospheric warming that gained intense scrutiny by pundits, scientists, and the public. While interesting in its own right, the hiatus garnered far more attention than it deserved as a purported sign that future global warming would be much less than expected. The slowdown was preceded by almost 20 years of dramatic global temperature rise, and with 2014 having set a new global record high, there are signs that another decade-plus period of intensified atmospheric warming may be at our doorstep.

The most compelling argument for a renewed surge in global air temperature is rooted in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This index tracks the fingerprint of sea surface temperature (SST) across the Pacific north of 20°N. A closely related index, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), covers a larger swath of the entire Pacific. Both the PDO and IPO capture back-and-forth swings in the geography of Pacific SSTs that affect the exchange of heat between ocean and atmosphere (see Figure 1). We’ll use PDO as shorthand for both indexes in the following discussion.

The PDO typically leans toward a positive or negative state for more than a decade at a time. The positive phase, which features warmer-than-average SSTs along the U.S. West Coast, was dominant from the mid-1970s to the late 1990s. The PDO then flipped to a negative phase between about 1999 and 2013, with cooler-than-average SSTs along the West Coast. Figure 2 shows that even when a particular mode is favored, the PDO can still flip back to its opposite mode for periods of a few months or so.


Figure 1. Departures from average sea-surface temperature (degrees C) and wind (arrows) that typically prevail when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in its positive mode (left) and negative mode (right). Image credit: University of Washington.


It’s not clear exactly what drives the PDO, but in some ways it can be viewed as a geographically expanded version of the SST patterns created by El Niño and La Niña, averaged over a longer time period. (See Figure 2.) It’s well-established that El Niño can raise global temperature for a few months by several tenths of a degree Celsius, as warm water spreads over the eastern tropical Pacific and mixes with the overlying atmosphere. Likewise, La Niña can act to pull down global average temperature, as cooler-than-average water extends further west than usual across the tropical Pacific. The PDO mirrors these trends, but over longer periods. When the PDO is positive, there are more El Niño and fewer La Niña events, and heat stored in the ocean tends to be spread across a larger surface area, allowing it to enter the atmosphere more easily. When the PDO is negative, SSTs are below average across a larger area, and global air temperatures tend to be lower.


Figure 2. Typical warm and cool anomalies in sea-surface temperature during positive PDO years (left) and El Niño years (right). The patterns are similar, though with differences in intensity over some regions. The anomalies are reversed for negative PDO and La Niña years. Image credit: University of Washington Climate Impacts Group.


Figure 3 shows a striking connection between favored PDO modes (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). The vast majority of atmospheric warming over the last century occurred during positive PDO phases, with negative PDOs tending to result in flat temperature trends. It’s easy to see how an atmospheric warming “hiatus” could occur during a negative PDO phase.


Figure 3. PDO values (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). Gray shading indicates positive PDO periods, when atmospheric warming was most evident. The NOAA PDO values shown here vary slightly from those discussed in the article, which are calculated by the University of Washington. Image credit: Jerimiah Brown, Weather Underground. Data sources:NOAA (top) and NOAA/NCDC (bottom).


From the AMS meeting
The hiatus was discussed at length in a series of talks during the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society last month in Phoenix. Jerry Meehl, from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (my former employer), gave a whirlwind 15-minute overview of hiatus-oriented research conducted over the last six years. Meehl’s talk can be viewed online. More than 20 papers have studied the hiatus and its links to the PDO/IPO, according to Matthew England (University of New South Wales). Most of the flattening of global temperature during the hiatus can be traced to cooler-than-average conditions over the eastern tropical Pacific, which pulled down global averages. An emerging theme is that natural, or internal, variability in the tropical Pacific can explain at least half of the hiatus. NCAR’s Clara Deser presented new modeling evidence along these lines (see video online). Other factors may be involved as well, including a series of weak volcanic eruptions that could explain a small part of the hiatus, according to a recent analysis by Ben Santer (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory).

One crucial point is that global warming didn’t “stop” during the hiatus: the world’s oceans actually gained heat at an accelerated pace. Trade winds blew more strongly from east to west across the Pacific, consistent with the tendency toward La Niña conditions, as described in this open-access article by NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo. Over parts of the central tropical Pacific, trade winds averaged about 3 mph stronger during 1999-2012 compared to 1976-1988. These speeds are higher than for any previous hiatus on record, bolstering the idea that other factors may have joined this negative PDO/IPO phase. The faster trade winds encouraged upwelling of cooler water to the east and helped deepen and strengthen the warm pool to the west—enough, in fact, to raise sea level around the Philippines by as much as 8 inches. Other parts of the deep ocean warmed as well. A new study led by Dean Roemmich (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) maps the areas of greatest ocean heating from 2006 to 2013 and finds that significant warming extended to depths of greater than 6600 feet.

What next for the PDO?
The PDO index, as calculated at the University of Washington, scored positive values during every month in 2014, the first such streak since 2003. By December it reached +2.51, the largest positive value for any December in records that go back to 1900. The January value from UW was 2.45, again a monthly record. (NOAA calculates its own PDO values through a closely related methodology.)

Because the PDO can flip modes for a year or more within its longer-term cycle, we don’t yet know whether a significant shift to a positive PDO phase has begun. If trade winds weaken throughout this year, and positive PDO values persist, that’ll be strong evidence that a new cycle is indeed under way. The last time we saw a two-year streak of positive values was in 1992-93. If this occurs, and assuming no spikes in major volcanic activity, we could expect greater rises in global temperature over the next 10 to 15 years than we’ve seen during the hiatus. In addition, we should watch for El Niño to make its presence known more often.

“I am inclined to think the hiatus is over, mainly based on the PDO index change,” NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth told me. While Matthew England isn’t ready to offer such a prediction, he emphasized that any post-hiatus global temperature rise is likely to be fairly rapid. Trenberth also commented on an interesting NOAA analysis (see Figure 4): “If one takes the global mean temperature from 1970 on, everything fits a linear trend quite well except 1998.”


Figure 4. When looking at global temperature over a full PDO cycle (1970s to 2010s), the overall rise becomes evident, despite the flattening observed in the last 15 years. Image credit: NOAA.


A record-strong El Niño occurred in 1998, providing an unusually powerful boost to global temperature and fueling years of subsequent declarations that “global warming stopped in 1998.” The record warmth of 2014 made it clear that global warming has no intention of stopping, and the next few years are likely to reinforce that point. Nevertheless, snowbound New Englanders, and millions of other easterners now dealing with record cold for so late in the year, may be wondering why eastern North America has seen so much cold and snow in the past few winters--especially this one--and how long that climatic quirk might continue. Stay tuned for a separate post on that topic.

Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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the next storm more snow for boston!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
421 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015


DCZ001-MDZ013-014-VAZ026-038>040-050>054-502-507- 261700-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-150226T1700Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-ROCKINGHAM-
GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
NORTHERN VA BLUE RIDGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...HARRISONBURG...
CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
FALLS CHURCH...BIG MEADOWS
421 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

* LOCATIONS...WASHINGTON DC AND MOST MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA
SUBURBS...ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND NORTH-
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...THROUGH THE MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...
PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SUBURBS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...NEAR 30 DEGREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 735. NativeSun:

Their probably longer cycles and a lot more we don't about the sun, it's cycles' and the effects it has on our planet. We've only really been studying the sun in earnest for a few years in the grand scheme of things.


The planet doesn't warm by magic. Stop with the pseudo scientific garbage already. We have a more than solid body of evidence that you refuse to acknowledge, we get it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 733. tampabaymatt:




IF that verifies, then that is some welcome news for the four corners region. Crossin' fingers.

Also, in response to 722. sar2401, if i remember correctly (and I probably didn't) the WPC had your area higher on previous runs.. then lowered it as they shifted totals north and east. Soooo... hey look, it's cold out!
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The storm tracked a bit farther west. Roads are covered and it looks like we'll be in it for a few more hours. Snow on top of snow here.
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Quoting 669. Gearsts:

Are you trolling?
Of course.
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737. beell
From the "Let's run with an attention-grabbing headline and worry about the science later" department.

Deadliest Tornado Outbreak in Decades Was Fueled by Smoke From Land Clearing
April 2011 saw the worst day of U.S. tornadoes since 1974, and a new analysis points to fires in Central America as part of the cause.-National Geographic/February 9th, 2015


"We're not saying that the outbreak happened because of the smoke," "We're saying that, given the conditions already in place, the smoke intensified the tornadoes."
Pablo Saide, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Iowa, in Iowa City...

"This case is such an outlier in so many ways, it makes it difficult for me to believe the findings,"
Greg Carbin, a meteorologist at the the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma...

In the hopes of convincing Carbin and the forecasting community of the power of aerosols, Saide plans to test his simulations on other tornado outbreaks.
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Quoting 717. CosmicEvents:

Using the water card makes no sense in hoping for some category severe hurricane. Historically, the folks living in the Caribbean have filled up their cisterns more with slow moving tropical storms, even tropical waves. These are preferable to a faster moving mainly windstorm, which cause more damage and kill more people while dropping less rain.
.
Spare us the "woe is us, so sad" routine in dreaming about winds. Nobody wants home damage unless the damage means the government comes in put a new roof on your house. Which I've heard happens in some islands.
This is what insurance is for in the U.S. and yes it can be expensive, but well worth it if you live in an area that's affected by natural disasters.
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Quoting 564. wartsttocs:



Were some of those articles that "stood out" authored by a man named Soon? Post denier-gate it is hard to believe anyone would seriously bring "the sun" thing up in regards to recent warming. I am aware of the 11 year solar cycle, but beyond that I don't think there is evidence of a longer term "cycle". (I could be wrong) If there is what causes it and what is the empirical evidence? I think just throwing out the world "cycle" without identifying it and explaining it is worthless.
Their probably longer cycles and a lot more we don't about the sun, it's cycles' and the effects it has on our planet. We've only really been studying the sun in earnest for a few years in the grand scheme of things.
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w.sky.is.dark..e.cen.fl.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
731. vis0

Quoting 722. sar2401:

It was the tale of two states today in Alabama. From a Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Gadsden line north, everyone got measurable snow. Luckily for the big cities, that changeover to snow came late, about 8:00 pm in Birmingham, and it was all snow. Very heavy, wet snow, but no reports of significant ice. Birmingham reports totals in the 2" range. The snow has now ended for most of the state. Totals further north appear to be anywhere from 6" to 11", and it's just about impossible for traffic to move in these areas, with widespread power outages. Some of the snow totals in NW AL are the second or third highest ever, and I expect we'll find some places that don't have power and phones will report totals of 12" or more tomorrow, which should set some all-time records.

From Montgomery south, it was a day of heavy rain and some strong thunderstorms, as the snow line stayed far to the north. Totals of 1.5" to 2.5" are pretty general for this area. I had several lines of organized showers with a few thunderstorms move through, with the rain ending at 11:00 pm. None of the thunderstorms here were severe and, in my case, not even strong. My high wind gust was only 11 mph, even with the pressure down to 29.52. I haven't heard of any flooding problems beyond the usual nuisance flooding on some streets. We really needed the rain, and the soil had a lot of carrying capacity. Even with today's rain, we are still behind for the month and year.

For anyone following the WPC challenge, the WPC QPF forecast from last Sunday through 6:00 CST today showed a total of 2" to 2.5" in SE AL. From Sunday until Wednesday midnight, I had 1.15" of rain. From 000 Wednesday until 1800 today, I got another 2.65" (!). My day total rainfall though midnight on 2/25 was 2.95" (!). So, instead of around 2.5" for the period, I got 3.80". It's kind of hard to fault the WPC on this one, since I don't believe any forecasts anticipated what actually happened here today. If we ignore the predicted totals, the WPC correctly forecast we'd get substantial rain in the four day period, and they were right about that. Still, if you're going to forecast amounts, ~2.50" compared to the actual of 3.80" is a pretty big miss. What concerns me is that the WPC has pretty consistently missed in my area on upside variance, and this is yet another example.

TOOTING TIME:: SAR2401 sez "since I don't believe any forecasts anticipated what actually happened here today."
Yet crazy me stated what happened (search for a reply to a SAR2401 cmmnt) my only prediction under 78% correct here on Wxu since 2010 was hurricane season 2014.  RECENTLY(El Niño goes back but still a fresh subject),

Posted to be on the look out 1 month before Fay & Gonzalo formed as to my knowledge the then upcoming "2WkAnom" period raised opportunities for 2.3 weak Hurricanes to form, when i read (thanks to a wxu member) ~ 3 days before Fay formed that MJO was coming i up's it to 2.3 moderate(cat3) Hurrs.   [√]

Stated no widespread AtmosRiver, just pockets of moderate rain [√],

Predicted ~18days before of a 50% chance of a TS like storm might form off Baja, CA as the most recent "2Wkanom" would end as as opposed to a moderator thinking a MODEL was picking up a TS during the Dec. 2014 AtmosRiver event, no TS formed but 2 mini swirls brought Baja moisture. [~ √ ]

Mentioned since 2012, instead of El Niño in 2012 & again 2014/15 i stated no El Niño and in November 2014 look for "Le IkodoM Niño" (for Modoki Niño areas recieving moisture BUT FROMN THE OPPOSITE directions  as rain from N or NE via Washington State to Northern Ca and eventually towards Southern Ca. or via the southern route from Baja heading N/NW towards Ca. [√] BTW thats just El Modoki spelled backwards.

(only busted forecast was when i busted my ml-d, NOT TO WORRY LADIES i had an extra one (as i told SAR2401)

How did i get prediction correct? By using an educated guess but based on Galacsics not physics, imagine if  models used both.

 WAKE UP vis0 

wow i had the weirdest dream that i had the quality cojones of stormtrackerscott, which if i my add my apologies (though he'll think its weird, like the text above wasn't, but those are facts look up my past cmmnts), i apologize as stormtrackerscott, as he would be 90% correct as to El Niños, TWO of them since 2012 as a friend whom knows her physics passed my Galacsics theories through a "model" run, type program  and after the compu'r threw up, the programs in removing how i state the ml-d influence weather since 2010, stated we should have had 2 El Ninos both moderate. Be patient stormtrackerscott, first be on the look out for what i posted on this Masters' blobyte as to the next 50-55 day wxtrend and hold on for a wild weather ride of 3-5 yrs.and science will scratch their heads but if we're in a TS lull how did we get ................

Hope you put the rain to good use SAR2401...you do collect rain water as i do, as i set my Puerto Rican home (in 2010, to do so by placing 6 blue 50 gallon rain barrels (sadly only 2 were activated...lid taken off) to drip their rain on a down-slope  (plastic barrels tied & raised up on small sturdy foundation "benches"(not drawn, tried to draw the 45 different plants ALL MY FATHER's planting, (not VID recorded ,as due to my good citizenship i'm always stopped at airports~15 times including  6 times had to leave cameras in nyc) , neighbors remove it is wind alerts are given), dripping halts when sponges get wet and when sponges become dry dripping commences. See tubes are hanging from flat small poles (don't want to attract lightning) what the tubes hang on, are a type of sturdy sponge line chord. When it rains the weighted sponge elongates and since the tubes are feed through a screw with a metal loop it creates a see-saw like action ...ah here let me draw it. Pictures on my Facebook, but sorry only for real life friends, some images of Home, pups on my Ipernity as "Senor Equis" but its mixed in with wxbabes to science to religious theories, some theories might rub some the wrong way or are too adult based. You've been doomed i mean warned.

Ahhh, i can stop talking ...the paint dried.
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good early thurs morning..very windy right now, no rain by me yet but........HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
326 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-15 5-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-85 0-853-856-870-
873-876-262000-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COAS TAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
326 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED. ANY STORMS SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
729. vis0

Quoting 705. coldisbad:


You realize that we have orders of magnitude more computing power, better models, a lot more measurements, and Terabytes of data today compared to 1970s, right? There may still be a ways to go, but CO2 and warming link is there.

I personally hate cold and think it'd be beneficial for humans if the earth warmed up a couple degrees, we'd have Canada and Siberia as inhabitable places. The speed of warming might be a bit of a problem. but I'm confident we'll have the technology to combat the effects.
You realize this is not, sit next to the fireplace with yer significant other (in my case a mirror) with a nice open flame going crackle crackle snap pop?

This is more like  FAMILY #1:: WHERE JOHN!!!!!!!
i DON'T KNOW" OMG I THINK HE WAS IN THE HOUSE WHEN THE WATERS FINALLY TOOK THE HOME INTO THE OCEAN... JOHN!!!!!
FAMILY#2:: i'VE NEVER SEEN THE WATER THIS HIGH WITHOUT A SEVERE STORM!
I CANNOT BELIEVE THIS WEATHER (CACKLE CRACKLE BOOM) *THUNDER* EVER SINCE 2021  NO ONE CAN PREDICT WEATHER MORE THAN 24 HRS OUT!
 *winds howling* i KNOW MY GOLF GAME WAS TO BE RAINED OUT TODAY BUT IT SNOWED AND TOMORROW Tropical storm  ZETA PI ZETA, IS GOING TO CANCEL MY TENNIS LESSONS.
BTW WHERE YOUR SON
OH HE WENT TO ALASKA to breathe in some cleaner air and TO TAKE IN THE IDITAROD.    
HOW WAS IT?
 IT WAS CANCELED DUE TO THE FACT THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH SNOW AND TO HOT FOR THE DOGS, 
(winds die down as the go into bunker due to tornado sirens) some dogs almost died from over heating.
BUT ITS WINTER , i know who'd had thunk it crackle crackle (tree blown over by winds) Following day, neighbors buried at sea on account that most cemetery are now underwater, as most at the burial being its nighttime and power is off  use candles and torches type of crackle crackle snap pop!

Of course this will not happen all in one day, but to those that lose luved ones for a reason that man generated & could've prevented, does that matter?

P.S. if you realize that odds are, when Canada (northern) & Siberia become Inhabitable that means USofA (southern),  sub tropical & Tropical areas (ALL OVER THE GLOBE) become uninhabitable (as to modern living) as the same weather extremes that bring "warmth" up towards the polar regions cause such extremes in weather patterns that droughts to deluges become more the norm, and make living their very costly TO SAY THE LEAST.

AS to your words "The speed of warming might be a bit of a problem" i thank you that you noticed that could be an issue, lets start lowering the CO2 so that we don't have to outrun that warmth as we move towards Siberia and therefore we can enjoy Constantinople for a few years.
WHAT ITS NO LONGER NAMED Constantinople? since when?
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Quoting 720. Jedkins01:
The wind is howling on the west coast of Florida, holy warm air advection, batman:

Mostly Cloudy and Breezy

72�F

22�C

Humidity87%
Wind SpeedS 25 G 41 mph
Barometer29.71 in (1006.1 mb)
Dewpoint68�F (20�C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 26 Feb 12:53 am EST

Current conditions at

St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport (KPIE)

Lat: 27.91�N Lon: 82.69�W Elev: 3ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather


Wind has been gusting to 45mph here this morning with consistant lightning flashing now to my west. These storms though may just miss my area to the west.
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727. vis0

Quoting 670. washingtonian115:

Astronomers find a shockingly ancient black hole the size of 12 billion suns
Link

IGNORE MY WORDS, they're for future archeologists whom dig into old servers (not soil) to find the Knowledge & Gnowledge are older than time itself.

Spirit of Universe is ~128 BILLION LIGHT YEARS. a quiet ocean only moving within not without
Soul of Universe is ~60 BILLION LIGHT YEARS.  Black holes q-Novae begin to form as the seed for a big (as in coverage NOT as in loud) bang is sewn.
Self (physical) of Universe is ~20 Billion light yrs  The flower that is physics blossoms via the Big in coverage 'bang" (Modern science presently sez ~14-16 billion light yrs)

...19.99999999999 billion yrs later some are still adding fertilizer to that flower, by still thinking man cannot destroy himself via aGW/GCS. 

(Yes Grothar i missed a few 9's, my abacus string broke while trying to slide all the beads over, ...the clothing that where drying on that string)
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Quoting 705. coldisbad:
...I personally hate cold and think it'd be beneficial for humans if the earth warmed up a couple degrees, we'd have Canada and Siberia as inhabitable places.


No, we wouldn't. It takes a hell of a lot more than temperature to make a place inhabitable. For example, it's difficult to grow food when your crops are not adapted to the conditions of the region. This includes day-night cycles, insects, etc. It also doesn't help when the land you're trying to grow food on is sitting on top of a gigantic granite shield. Take a look at the geology of mid to northern Canada. It's nutritionally poor scrub land on top of a big plate of rock.

Siberia is no better. Like Canada, there a few areas conducive to agricultural, mostly in the western and southern regions. However most of Siberia is acidic podsol, progressing to frozen tundra in the north. Not really friendly to agricultural crops.

In addition, a warming of 2C isn't going to do much against arctic airmasses. It's still going to be really freakin' cold in the winter (and dark). Instead of -30 temps, you might see -25 temps. Not exactly beach weather. Those temps also imply another problem; large amounts energy use. That pretty much makes those region economically dead.

The speed of warming might be a bit of a problem. but I'm confident we'll have the technology to combat the effects.


Unlikely. And technology isn't the biggest problem anyway.
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Quoting EricfromGreenvilleSC:
Total bust in the forecast for me here near Mauldin, SC. They predicted at least 3 or 4 inches of snow here but all I got here was maybe 3/4ths of an inch to maybe an inch of snow and maybe an inch of sleet here. Kinda disappointed but its better than nothing. Snow was a little heavier north of I-85 and Spartanburg got some pretty good snows as well.
The gradient between snow and no snow was pretty sharp. We had areas with 2-4" of snow here in north central Alabama while areas 25 miles south reported all rain. This forecast always had a high bust potential, both for above and below the forecast. It really shows that we don't yet have the ability forecast these small scale changes with any accuracy. I wish people would keep today in mind when they look at the Next Big Thing in model predictions.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting vis0:

Way OFF Off topic, but  on cmment:: wouldn't a more telling tune be Find the #1 "Song on the Day You Were Conceived", i guess one can enter any date those servers searching won't go oooooohhh.

On topic but way off off cmmnt:: looks like nature in areas in & around the UsofA, is trying to force a zonal flow ....interesting (if LOWs keep going more off tyhe NE shore by several hundred miles and then building to my way of reading weather patterns & the ml-d that means Nature is putting out strong zonal flows that are trumping the ml-d's influence to curve LOWs more towards the NE, lets see if this continues for 3-4 more days. If so those that know physics enter in your models that there might be strong wind divergent/sheering at many different levels** for the next ~50-55 days)

-------again i stink at physics (no kidding) but the more changes in wind directions WITH constant or quickly replenished STRONG WINDS  at different levels of the "weather" atmospheres the more spin  their is for nature to tap into therefore build stronger storms. Gonna try and find how the winds where during the OHIO-PA. outbreak in the early 1970s, again observe if this zonal flow continues on LOWs from the south building up and heading more offshore ~NJ rather than Nw.Eng.


LOL. How appropriate. Mine was "Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow!" by Vaughn Monroe and his Orchestra. Sure worked for today for north Alabama. So, Vis, what did the ml-d have to do with today's weather? Pretty wild stuff, and most of it wasn't on the radar, so to speak.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Total bust in the forecast for me here near Mauldin, SC. They predicted at least 3 or 4 inches of snow here but all I got here was maybe 3/4ths of an inch to maybe an inch of snow and maybe an inch of sleet here. Kinda disappointed but its better than nothing. Snow was a little heavier north of I-85 and Spartanburg got some pretty good snows as well.
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It was the tale of two states today in Alabama. From a Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Gadsden line north, everyone got measurable snow. Luckily for the big cities, that changeover to snow came late, about 8:00 pm in Birmingham, and it was all snow. Very heavy, wet snow, but no reports of significant ice. Birmingham reports totals in the 2" range. The snow has now ended for most of the state. Totals further north appear to be anywhere from 6" to 11", and it's just about impossible for traffic to move in these areas, with widespread power outages. Some of the snow totals in NW AL are the second or third highest ever, and I expect we'll find some places that don't have power and phones will report totals of 12" or more tomorrow, which should set some all-time records.

From Montgomery south, it was a day of heavy rain and some strong thunderstorms, as the snow line stayed far to the north. Totals of 1.5" to 2.5" are pretty general for this area. I had several lines of organized showers with a few thunderstorms move through, with the rain ending at 11:00 pm. None of the thunderstorms here were severe and, in my case, not even strong. My high wind gust was only 11 mph, even with the pressure down to 29.52. I haven't heard of any flooding problems beyond the usual nuisance flooding on some streets. We really needed the rain, and the soil had a lot of carrying capacity. Even with today's rain, we are still behind for the month and year.

For anyone following the WPC challenge, the WPC QPF forecast from last Sunday through 6:00 CST today showed a total of 2" to 2.5" in SE AL. From Sunday until Wednesday midnight, I had 1.15" of rain. From 000 Wednesday until 1800 today, I got another 2.65" (!). My day total rainfall though midnight on 2/25 was 2.95" (!). So, instead of around 2.5" for the period, I got 3.80". It's kind of hard to fault the WPC on this one, since I don't believe any forecasts anticipated what actually happened here today. If we ignore the predicted totals, the WPC correctly forecast we'd get substantial rain in the four day period, and they were right about that. Still, if you're going to forecast amounts, ~2.50" compared to the actual of 3.80" is a pretty big miss. What concerns me is that the WPC has pretty consistently missed in my area on upside variance, and this is yet another example.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
721. vis0
why lookie there it posted at #719.

Crashed 2 times just typing this cmmnt, i'm too old to be wasting the last drops of oil in my knuckles to 3peat this. (9 crashes for ffox in 24 hrs i must've reconfigured something or WxU has the fleu, "electronic bug") i know words are cut off, have some fun guessing what they are.


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The wind is howling on the west coast of Florida, holy warm air advection, batman:

Mostly Cloudy and Breezy

72F

22C

Humidity87%
Wind SpeedS 25 G 41 mph
Barometer29.71 in (1006.1 mb)
Dewpoint68F (20C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 26 Feb 12:53 am EST

Current conditions at

St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport (KPIE)

Lat: 27.91N Lon: 82.69W Elev: 3ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
719. vis0

Quoting 551. nrtiwlnvragn:

Way off topic.....

Find the #1 Song on the Day You Were Born

Note: May not work for Gro
Way OFF Off topic, but  on cmment:: wouldn't a more telling tune be Find the #1 "Song on the Day You Were Conceived", i guess one can enter any date those servers searching won't go oooooohhh.

On topic but way off off cmmnt:: looks like nature in areas in & around the UsofA, is trying to force a zonal flow ....interesting (if LOWs keep going more off tyhe NE shore by several hundred miles and then building to my way of reading weather patterns & the ml-d that means Nature is putting out strong zonal flows that are trumping the ml-d's influence to curve LOWs more towards the NE, lets see if this continues for 3-4 more days. If so those that know physics enter in your models that there might be strong wind divergent/sheering at many different levels** for the next ~50-55 days)

-------again i stink at physics (no kidding) but the more changes in wind directions WITH constant or quickly replenished STRONG WINDS  at different levels of the "weather" atmospheres the more spin  their is for nature to tap into therefore build stronger storms. Gonna try and find how the winds where during the OHIO-PA. outbreak in the early 1970s, again observe if this zonal flow continues on LOWs from the south building up and heading more offshore ~NJ rather than Nw.Eng.


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Quoting 702. coldisbad:


It's sad that people won't be endangered by severe weather just because you'll be bored?



Yes.

*snicker*
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Quoting 714. CaribBoy:



We will be lacking of rain. Keep in mind that rain is very important in the Leeward Islands.

So.. yes, it's absolutely sad. I repeat and confirm.




Using the water card makes no sense in hoping for some category severe hurricane. Historically, the folks living in the Caribbean have filled up their cisterns more with slow moving tropical storms, even tropical waves. These are preferable to a faster moving mainly windstorm, which cause more damage and kill more people while dropping less rain.
.
Spare us the "woe is us, so sad" routine in dreaming about winds. Nobody wants home damage unless the damage means the government comes in put a new roof on your house. Which I've heard happens in some islands.
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Gustav and Ike were, for all intents and purposes, major hurricanes if we're defining solely wind impact. 90 and 95 kt really isn't meaningfully different from 100 kt, where major hurricane starts.
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715. flsky
NASA mega-drought prediction. (Please ignore if this has already been posted.)
Link
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Quoting 702. coldisbad:


It's sad that people won't be endangered by severe weather just because you'll be bored?



We will be lacking of rain. Keep in mind that rain is very important in the Leeward Islands.

So.. yes, it's absolutely sad. I repeat and confirm.



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Quoting 712. Storms306:

Heavy wet snow falling in Pitt county now. Sticking to anything and everything.

"Sigh,"I need to move north.
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Heavy wet snow falling in Pitt county now. Sticking to anything and everything.
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Quoting 708. Patrap:

One thing is sure as a Blue Sky, the CO2 ppm will be approaching 500ppm or more in 50 years.

Its gone up 85ppm in my 55 years.

co2now,org 399.85


Thats a weally, weally, bad thing.




Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.






Oh neaux!
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Quoting 706. Patrap:



Using the SSS as a measure scale for impact as a Major is a poor scale indeed.

Also note the 2008 year with Gustav and Ike as well.

Major is a relative thing save for those impacted, always as well.

Sandy October 2012



Formed October 22, 2012

Dissipated November 2, 2012

(Extratropical after October 29

Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 115 mph (185 km/h)

Lowest pressure 940 mbar (hPa); 27.76 inHg
Fatalities 233 total (direct and indirect)
Damage $68 billion (2012 USD)

Second-costliest hurricane in US history
Areas affected Greater Antilles, Bahamas, most of the eastern United States (especially the coastal Mid-Atlantic States), Bermuda, eastern Canada
Part of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season



Isaac August 2012



Formed August 21, 2012
Dissipated September 3, 2012
(Extratropical on September 1)

Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 80 mph (130 km/h)

Lowest pressure 965 mbar (hPa); 28.5 inHg

Fatalities 34 direct, 7 indirect

Damage $2.39 billion (2012 USD)

Areas affected Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, The Bahamas, Southeastern United States (Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama)
Part of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season


The SSS is based on wind, but you're right, it is relative. Sandy was destructive due to the wide area it affected (as well as its unusual path due to a blocking high to its northeast so it had to nowhere to go but the jersey shore), though it did have pressure you'd see in a category 3 hurricane. It stalled for a couple days so places like staten island, parts of long island, and new jersey got a few days of onshore winds that pushed all that water onshore (and funneled it into parts of NYC) and caused extensive coastal flooding and damage to the subway system. On the other hand, karl hit veracruz in 2010 (a couple weeks after Earl brushed the outer banks) as a category 3 yet damage wasn't too terribly widespread there because it was a very small hurricane and there weren't many reports of hurricane-force winds it the city despite it passing 10 miles north.
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One thing is sure as a Blue Sky, the CO2 ppm will be approaching 500ppm or more in 50 years.

Its gone up 85ppm in my 55 years.

co2now,org 399.85


Thats a weally, weally, bad thing.




Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.


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Quoting 705. coldisbad:


You realize that we have orders of magnitude more computing power, better models, a lot more measurements, and Terabytes of data today compared to 1970s, right? There may still be a ways to go, but CO2 and warming link is there.

I personally hate cold and think it'd be beneficial for humans if the earth warmed up a couple degrees, we'd have Canada and Siberia as inhabitable places. The speed of warming might be a bit of a problem. but I'm confident we'll have the technology to combat the effects.

And they'll be saying that 35-40 years from now. Who knows how different the inferences will be then...
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Quoting 692. StormTrackerScott:
I suspect a 8 to 9 storm season with 1 ot 2 impacts to the US with 1 maybe being a major. Been to long since the US has been hit by a major and I suspect that drought is broken this year.


Using the SSS as a measure scale for impact as a Major is a poor scale indeed.

Also note the 2008 year with Gustav and Ike as well.

Major is a relative thing save for those impacted, always as well.

Sandy October 2012



Formed October 22, 2012

Dissipated November 2, 2012

(Extratropical after October 29

Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 115 mph (185 km/h)

Lowest pressure 940 mbar (hPa); 27.76 inHg
Fatalities 233 total (direct and indirect)
Damage $68 billion (2012 USD)

Second-costliest hurricane in US history
Areas affected Greater Antilles, Bahamas, most of the eastern United States (especially the coastal Mid-Atlantic States), Bermuda, eastern Canada
Part of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season



Isaac August 2012



Formed August 21, 2012
Dissipated September 3, 2012
(Extratropical on September 1)

Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 80 mph (130 km/h)

Lowest pressure 965 mbar (hPa); 28.5 inHg

Fatalities 34 direct, 7 indirect

Damage $2.39 billion (2012 USD)

Areas affected Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, The Bahamas, Southeastern United States (Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama)
Part of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season
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Quoting 597. GeoffreyWPB:

What were climate scientists predicting in the 1970s?



You realize that we have orders of magnitude more computing power, better models, a lot more measurements, and Terabytes of data today compared to 1970s, right? There may still be a ways to go, but CO2 and warming link is there.

I personally hate cold and think it'd be beneficial for humans if the earth warmed up a couple degrees, we'd have Canada and Siberia as inhabitable places. The speed of warming might be a bit of a problem. but I'm confident we'll have the technology to combat the effects.
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Quoting 701. VAbeachhurricanes:



no, its in mm/hr.


okay thanks
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Quoting 701. VAbeachhurricanes:



no, its in mm/hr.

...and it's just the instantaneous rate for that point in time, not an accumulation.
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Quoting 697. CaribBoy:

According to Scott, we have to be ready for another round of weak pathetic tropical waves eaten by dry air and SAL this hurricane season :-(

THIS is too sad!

It's sad that people won't be endangered by severe weather just because you'll be bored?
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Quoting 700. ncstorm:

really? Am I reading this right..12 inches of rain?

00z NAM



no, its in mm/hr.
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really? Am I reading this right..12 inches of rain?

00z NAM
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I have added the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society to the list of news sources in my blog.
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According to Scott, we have to be ready for another round of weak pathetic tropical waves eaten by dry air and SAL this hurricane season :-(

THIS is too sad!
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This is interesting, looking at the Tallahassee sounding, if we didn't have that stable layer near the surface and had much higher surface CAPE, this could have been a scary tornado event, surface to 3 km shear and helicity especially was scary high on the sounding, 934 m^2/s^2 for SFC to 3 km helicity and SFC to 1 km of 821 is scary high, thank God for low instability! lol

Basically, 250 for 0-3 km and 100 for 0-1 km is the threshold for possible supercell development and tornadoes, although that's assuming sufficient CAPE, still the values tonight were amazingly high, and it could have been a rough evening if decent CAPE was around
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 687. VAbeachhurricanes:



I'm starting to worry it might mix here a little now
I think for once this winter you all have a chance of actually seeing some nice snow.
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Heavy wet snow coming (DH says it's frozen ice  s**t, not snow, I could be wrong) is coming down fast here in Raleigh, sticking to everything, road, lawns, cars, dogs, etc.
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Quoting 691. aquak9:

doubt I'll see a drop here in Jacksonville

#rainhateme


There might be a little bit in JAX. #theresstillhope





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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather