Are We Entering a New Period of Rapid Global Warming?

By: Bob Henson , 5:04 PM GMT on February 24, 2015

Residents of New England may understandably look back at 2015 as the year of their never-ending winter. For the planet as a whole, though, this year could stand out most for putting to rest the “hiatus”— the 15-year slowdown in atmospheric warming that gained intense scrutiny by pundits, scientists, and the public. While interesting in its own right, the hiatus garnered far more attention than it deserved as a purported sign that future global warming would be much less than expected. The slowdown was preceded by almost 20 years of dramatic global temperature rise, and with 2014 having set a new global record high, there are signs that another decade-plus period of intensified atmospheric warming may be at our doorstep.

The most compelling argument for a renewed surge in global air temperature is rooted in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This index tracks the fingerprint of sea surface temperature (SST) across the Pacific north of 20°N. A closely related index, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), covers a larger swath of the entire Pacific. Both the PDO and IPO capture back-and-forth swings in the geography of Pacific SSTs that affect the exchange of heat between ocean and atmosphere (see Figure 1). We’ll use PDO as shorthand for both indexes in the following discussion.

The PDO typically leans toward a positive or negative state for more than a decade at a time. The positive phase, which features warmer-than-average SSTs along the U.S. West Coast, was dominant from the mid-1970s to the late 1990s. The PDO then flipped to a negative phase between about 1999 and 2013, with cooler-than-average SSTs along the West Coast. Figure 2 shows that even when a particular mode is favored, the PDO can still flip back to its opposite mode for periods of a few months or so.


Figure 1. Departures from average sea-surface temperature (degrees C) and wind (arrows) that typically prevail when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in its positive mode (left) and negative mode (right). Image credit: University of Washington.


It’s not clear exactly what drives the PDO, but in some ways it can be viewed as a geographically expanded version of the SST patterns created by El Niño and La Niña, averaged over a longer time period. (See Figure 2.) It’s well-established that El Niño can raise global temperature for a few months by several tenths of a degree Celsius, as warm water spreads over the eastern tropical Pacific and mixes with the overlying atmosphere. Likewise, La Niña can act to pull down global average temperature, as cooler-than-average water extends further west than usual across the tropical Pacific. The PDO mirrors these trends, but over longer periods. When the PDO is positive, there are more El Niño and fewer La Niña events, and heat stored in the ocean tends to be spread across a larger surface area, allowing it to enter the atmosphere more easily. When the PDO is negative, SSTs are below average across a larger area, and global air temperatures tend to be lower.


Figure 2. Typical warm and cool anomalies in sea-surface temperature during positive PDO years (left) and El Niño years (right). The patterns are similar, though with differences in intensity over some regions. The anomalies are reversed for negative PDO and La Niña years. Image credit: University of Washington Climate Impacts Group.


Figure 3 shows a striking connection between favored PDO modes (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). The vast majority of atmospheric warming over the last century occurred during positive PDO phases, with negative PDOs tending to result in flat temperature trends. It’s easy to see how an atmospheric warming “hiatus” could occur during a negative PDO phase.


Figure 3. PDO values (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). Gray shading indicates positive PDO periods, when atmospheric warming was most evident. The NOAA PDO values shown here vary slightly from those discussed in the article, which are calculated by the University of Washington. Image credit: Jerimiah Brown, Weather Underground. Data sources:NOAA (top) and NOAA/NCDC (bottom).


From the AMS meeting
The hiatus was discussed at length in a series of talks during the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society last month in Phoenix. Jerry Meehl, from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (my former employer), gave a whirlwind 15-minute overview of hiatus-oriented research conducted over the last six years. Meehl’s talk can be viewed online. More than 20 papers have studied the hiatus and its links to the PDO/IPO, according to Matthew England (University of New South Wales). Most of the flattening of global temperature during the hiatus can be traced to cooler-than-average conditions over the eastern tropical Pacific, which pulled down global averages. An emerging theme is that natural, or internal, variability in the tropical Pacific can explain at least half of the hiatus. NCAR’s Clara Deser presented new modeling evidence along these lines (see video online). Other factors may be involved as well, including a series of weak volcanic eruptions that could explain a small part of the hiatus, according to a recent analysis by Ben Santer (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory).

One crucial point is that global warming didn’t “stop” during the hiatus: the world’s oceans actually gained heat at an accelerated pace. Trade winds blew more strongly from east to west across the Pacific, consistent with the tendency toward La Niña conditions, as described in this open-access article by NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo. Over parts of the central tropical Pacific, trade winds averaged about 3 mph stronger during 1999-2012 compared to 1976-1988. These speeds are higher than for any previous hiatus on record, bolstering the idea that other factors may have joined this negative PDO/IPO phase. The faster trade winds encouraged upwelling of cooler water to the east and helped deepen and strengthen the warm pool to the west—enough, in fact, to raise sea level around the Philippines by as much as 8 inches. Other parts of the deep ocean warmed as well. A new study led by Dean Roemmich (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) maps the areas of greatest ocean heating from 2006 to 2013 and finds that significant warming extended to depths of greater than 6600 feet.

What next for the PDO?
The PDO index, as calculated at the University of Washington, scored positive values during every month in 2014, the first such streak since 2003. By December it reached +2.51, the largest positive value for any December in records that go back to 1900. The January value from UW was 2.45, again a monthly record. (NOAA calculates its own PDO values through a closely related methodology.)

Because the PDO can flip modes for a year or more within its longer-term cycle, we don’t yet know whether a significant shift to a positive PDO phase has begun. If trade winds weaken throughout this year, and positive PDO values persist, that’ll be strong evidence that a new cycle is indeed under way. The last time we saw a two-year streak of positive values was in 1992-93. If this occurs, and assuming no spikes in major volcanic activity, we could expect greater rises in global temperature over the next 10 to 15 years than we’ve seen during the hiatus. In addition, we should watch for El Niño to make its presence known more often.

“I am inclined to think the hiatus is over, mainly based on the PDO index change,” NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth told me. While Matthew England isn’t ready to offer such a prediction, he emphasized that any post-hiatus global temperature rise is likely to be fairly rapid. Trenberth also commented on an interesting NOAA analysis (see Figure 4): “If one takes the global mean temperature from 1970 on, everything fits a linear trend quite well except 1998.”


Figure 4. When looking at global temperature over a full PDO cycle (1970s to 2010s), the overall rise becomes evident, despite the flattening observed in the last 15 years. Image credit: NOAA.


A record-strong El Niño occurred in 1998, providing an unusually powerful boost to global temperature and fueling years of subsequent declarations that “global warming stopped in 1998.” The record warmth of 2014 made it clear that global warming has no intention of stopping, and the next few years are likely to reinforce that point. Nevertheless, snowbound New Englanders, and millions of other easterners now dealing with record cold for so late in the year, may be wondering why eastern North America has seen so much cold and snow in the past few winters--especially this one--and how long that climatic quirk might continue. Stay tuned for a separate post on that topic.

Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting 691. aquak9:

doubt I'll see a drop here in Jacksonville

#rainhateme


There might be a little bit in JAX. #theresstillhope





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Quoting 688. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'll keep it real simple and go based on climatology strictly and say this season will be average to slightly above average and based on the sst profiles with the North Atlantic and Gulf being the warmest go with 1975 as an analog. The only recent El Nino season that ended with a 5 was the 1965 season which occurred during the cold phase of the pdo and well we had Hurricane Betsy. Warm phase and with an El Nino will be really interesting. That is if we get an El Nino.


I suspect a 8 to 9 storm season with 1 ot 2 impacts to the US with 1 maybe being a major. Been to long since the US has been hit by a major and I suspect that drought is broken this year.
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doubt I'll see a drop here in Jacksonville

#rainhateme
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Moody AFB, GA (KVAX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)
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raderloop the rain is moving fast!
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I'll keep it real simple and go based on climatology strictly and say this season will be average to slightly above average and based on the sst profiles with the North Atlantic and Gulf being the warmest go with 1975 as an analog. The only recent El Nino season that ended with a 5 was the 1965 season which occurred during the cold phase of the pdo and well we had Hurricane Betsy. Warm phase and with an El Nino will be really interesting. That is if we get an El Nino.
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Quoting 683. washingtonian115:

Up to 4 inches possible in D.C now.


I'm starting to worry it might mix here a little now
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Quoting 651. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Getting a heavy rain/sleet mix here right now, which wasn't predicted. Temperatures are a few degrees above freezing, which should prevent appreciable accumulation.

With all of these systems only clipping us, I decided to see how long it's been since an appreciable snowstorm (I'd mark that at approximately 6 inches). Wilmington has not seen a half foot of snow since December 1989--26 years ago! The return period going back to 1870 is 12 years!

Mother Nature, feel free to end that streak soon--next month would be great. :)


The rain/snow line much further east of 95 than I thought it would be this early. Fayetteville was seeing snow before Winston-Salem or Greensboro was.
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Quoting 682. win1gamegiantsplease:


Raging?


Come this Fall yes now no as there is no El-Nino officially yet but that looks to change by April potentially if the ONI stays above .5 in March.
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Quoting 677. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hey stay safe buddy, looks like this event ended up being more worst than predicted.

Look at the piece of jet streak nosing into the Panhandle.



Local Storm Report


02/25/2015 0830 PM

5 miles ESE of Tallahassee , Leon County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center.


Tree down on wire at old St. Augustine Rd and Southwood
Plantation Rd.



Interesting, that's only about a half mile away from me, and I'm not surprised!

Well it's quieting down now and the power is back on, this turned out to be a lot more impressive than I was expecting, a lot of events around here end up being duds especially this time of year lol. This really was a great thunderstorm though, amazed to not see any trees down around outside with all these tall skinny pines, as the wind was really strong for a time although there was the storm report you just showed, a lot stronger than these cool season squall lines usually bring.

What was surprising to me though was how heavy the rain was, for about 10 minutes it rained like a strong summer thunderstorm, just looking at my gauge recently and looks near 2 inches right now, most of which fell in about 20 minutes! I'll check it later tomorrow to get an exact reading after school because it's hard to read with the darkness and rain.

Also yes we were just to the right of the diverging V in the jet streak, that's where the flow is most diffluent leading to the best lift, this really got a lot better organized just as it came into the area, it's interesting because the temperature was in the low 50's with dense fog all day, but it rapidly rose into the 60's and the fog cleared just before the line moved in, there was a narrow feed of instability just ahead of it as it came in.
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Up to 4 inches possible in D.C now.
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Quoting 653. StormTrackerScott:



Get used to it and expect even more of this next Winter with El-Nino raging on. Could be atleast moderate come Fall. Models all seem to be falling in line with each other which is something you hate to hear as it effects your active hurricane season projections.





Raging?
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Nothing falling in Pittsylvania county VA yet. Temps still in the upper 30's at the moment. Standing on the back porch and all is very, very quiet.
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Quoting 668. hurricanes2018:



its this storm going to hit the northeast yes or no!



It may pass just off to your south. GFS has it just off Long Island. The only northeast snow in the next couple of days is from the clipper that's approaching St. Louis.
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Quoting 658. BaltimoreBrian:

I think Cody should have 25" of snow in one storm like we did in Elizabeth City NC in March 1980.

I'm all for it, but I don't control the weather. :)

The most snow I've ever seen occurred in Fort Worth back in February 2010, when we picked up 16". That was a really fun experience, especially considering the forecast the night before the event had 3-5"...
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Quoting 675. StormTrackerScott:



Is what it is. There is not going to be a bust this year as so many scientist who predicted a Super El-Nino last year may want to look at what seems to be developing for 2015. Record high PDO and nino 3.4 steadily over .5C for 4 months now means this year is different from last year which didn't have a PDO above what would one expect for El-Nino to form till late last year and Nino 3.4 which didn't stay above 3.4 until October.





We all know this.
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Quoting 662. Jedkins01:

Wow just low power, currently running on laptop backup, wind and rain is nuts right now, this cell definitely deserves the warning, probably some of the worst conditions I've seen since being here!

Saw about 2 power flashes and the rainfall is insanely heavy!
Hey stay safe buddy, looks like this event ended up being more worst than predicted.

Look at the piece of jet streak nosing into the Panhandle.



Local Storm Report


02/25/2015 0830 PM

5 miles ESE of Tallahassee , Leon County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center.


Tree down on wire at old St. Augustine Rd and Southwood
Plantation Rd.

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Quoting 653. StormTrackerScott:



Get used to it and expect even more of this next Winter with El-Nino raging on. Could be atleast moderate come Fall. Models all seem to be falling in line with each other which is something you hate to hear as it effects your active hurricane season projections.




?

I don't remember forecasting an active Atlantic hurricane season. In fact, I'm pretty sure I've posted over the past several months about how a weak AMO and continued warm ENSO conditions – which continues to appear more likely than an El Nino – are likely to favor below-average hurricane activity unless we see a dramatic change.
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Quoting 669. Gearsts:
Are you trolling?


Is what it is. There is not going to be a bust this year as so many scientist who predicted a Super El-Nino last year may want to look at what seems to be developing for 2015. Record high PDO and nino 3.4 steadily over .5C for 4 months now means this year is different from last year which didn't have a PDO above what would one expect for El-Nino to form till late last year and Nino 3.4 which didn't stay above 3.4 until October.




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674. beell


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 4...

VALID 260129Z - 260300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 4 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 4 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A TORNADO OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TO MODESTLY INCREASE/DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS /THROUGH 03-04Z OR 10-11 PM EST/ ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FL PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHWEST GA.

DISCUSSION...A MODESTLY MOIST MARITIME AIR MASS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE LOW /999 MB/ THAT IS LOCATED NEAR TALLAHASSEE FL AS OF 01Z. LOWER/SOME MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE NOW MOVED INLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FL PANHANDLE...AND THIS SAME GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF NORTH FL/FAR SOUTHERN GA.

AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-SOUTH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY APPROACH THE REGION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS AND WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG. THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM TALLAHASSEE AND LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM KTLH SHOWS A LONG/CURVING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH WITH EXTREME /500+ M2 PER S2/ 0-1 KM SRH AND AROUND 80 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THAT SAID...THE RELATIVE MARGINALITY/NARROWNESS OF THE INLAND MOISTURE FLUX THIS EVENING...AND RELATED WEAK BUOYANCY WITHIN A MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...IS LIKELY TO BE AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE CERTAIN/WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK. NONETHELESS...THE SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED/PREVALENT SMALL-SCALE BOWS IN ADDITION TO FAST-MOVING/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

..GUYER.. 02/26/2015
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Quoting 664. BaltimoreBrian:

The low pressure is unusually deep, isn't it Jedkins01?
Nahhh that is just a normal walk in the park for him. ;)
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littie snow in the northeast!
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Quoting 661. hurricanes2018:


LOL, you know what I got to hand it to Jason he really is cool man. Always keeping it real and never getting into a fight with anyone on the blog.
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Astronomers find a shockingly ancient black hole the size of 12 billion suns
Link
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Quoting 653. StormTrackerScott:



Get used to it and expect even more of this next Winter with El-Nino raging on. Could be atleast moderate come Fall. Models all seem to be falling in line with each other which is something you hate to hear as it effects your active hurricane season projections.



Are you trolling?
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its this storm going to hit the northeast yes or no!
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i see lots of snow on this South Radar and Current Temperatures map
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Has anyone seen how massive Moderate Tropical Storm Glenda is?

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Quoting 616. jocapo:

the ice cap in the arctic is growing, the ice cap in the antarctic is growing. this does not happen when warmer climate prevails.
The thing is, folks, this posting is correct, except that he forgot a couple of words: Northern and Southern! Normally the ice cap in the Arctic grows during Northern winter, and the ice surrounding the Southern ice cap grows in the Southern winter. Since it's now Northern winter, the Arctic sea ice is increasing, but it probably will not reach the same volume of ice that was reached last year. However, the Antarctic sea ice may increase in extent in the Southern winter greater than last year, because the melting ice sheet (not cap) sheds fresh water ice into the ocean, which freezes at a higher temperature than the salt ocean. But the Antarctic ice sheet is not growing, and the sea ice at both poles will melt back in summer. So what?
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The low pressure is unusually deep, isn't it Jedkins01?
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Wow just low power, currently running on laptop backup, wind and rain is nuts right now, this cell definitely deserves the warning, probably some of the worst conditions I've seen since being here!

Saw about 2 power flashes and the rainfall is insanely heavy!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 656. Jedkins01:



4 products issued by NWS for: 6 Miles NE Tallahassee FL
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC073-129-260145-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0008.150226T0110Z-150226T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
810 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LEON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TALLAHASSEE...
NORTH CENTRAL WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 845 PM EST

* AT 808 PM EST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE...OR
NEAR BROWN HOUSE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
KLEMAN PLAZA AND STATE CAPITAL COMPLEX

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

&&

LAT...LON 3032 8457 3065 8401 3064 8400 3052 8403
3052 8404 3049 8404 3046 8404 3043 8408
3036 8408 3025 8454
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 237DEG 47KT 3032 8449

$$

25-CAMP





Geeze this line really ramped up just as it came into town! Winds are quite strong here and the rain is intense, the worst is still on the way, I'm in the path of the warning!

It's worth noting I can here the FSU severe weather alert siren and I'm about 3-4 miles from campus, impressive!
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Who sparked the global cooling myth?

From 1965-1979 there were 44 scientific papers that predicted global warming and 7 that predicted global cooling.

For GeoffreyWPB et al.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
659. vis0

Quoting 337. sar2401:

I know squat about rats (Vis can probably help with that) but the fact that the plague outbreaks happened as increased seaborne commerce with the Far East was increasing at the same time would seem to indicate that the native rats or other rodents served as a reservoir for some period of time. I read the study but it's a little ...dense...and my brain isn't operating on dense too well this morning. The one thing I found puzzling was their using tree rings when the some of the events were occurring in the late 18th and early 19th century, when the records in Europe and the Far East were more than sufficient for the purposes of the study. I don't know, but I think I definitely need more coffee this morning. :-)
Howd ya know? guess ya googled me>Me, circa 1998 ...was drunk (5 glasses of 3% milk, i know know, what was i thinking of).
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The 1.9" of snow in Boston this morning brought the Massachusetts snow severity index up from 10,839 yesterday to 11,045 today.

The record is 14,300 in the 1995-96 winter.

I think Cody should have 25" of snow in one storm like we did in Elizabeth City NC in March 1980.
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657. beell
Quoting 655. GeoffreyWPB:

beell....Going back to my Dennis the Menace avatar! However, very nicely done! You are very talented!


Nah, keep it!
I don't know what you're fixin' to eat there-but I want one!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


4 products issued by NWS for: 6 Miles NE Tallahassee FL
More Sharing ServicesShare | Share on facebook Share on twitter Share on email Share on print Share on gmail

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC073-129-260145-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0008.150226T0110Z-150226T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
810 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LEON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TALLAHASSEE...
NORTH CENTRAL WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 845 PM EST

* AT 808 PM EST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE...OR
NEAR BROWN HOUSE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
KLEMAN PLAZA AND STATE CAPITAL COMPLEX

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

&&

LAT...LON 3032 8457 3065 8401 3064 8400 3052 8403
3052 8404 3049 8404 3046 8404 3043 8408
3036 8408 3025 8454
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 237DEG 47KT 3032 8449

$$

25-CAMP





Geeze this line really ramped up just as it came into town! Winds are quite strong here and the rain is intense, the worst is still on the way, I'm in the path of the warning!

It's worth noting I can here the FSU severe weather alert siren and I'm about 3-4 miles from campus, impressive!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
beell....Going back to my Dennis the Menace avatar! However, very nicely done! You are very talented!
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Quoting 644. Stormlover16:

Okay, so here in Delaware we literally went from a forecast of no snow to six inches in twenty four hours. What???
The storm has pushed further north and west...
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Quoting 651. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Getting a heavy rain/sleet mix here right now, which wasn't predicted. Temperatures are a few degrees above freezing, which should prevent appreciable accumulation.

With all of these systems only clipping us, I decided to see how long it's been since an appreciable snowstorm (I'd mark that at approximately 6 inches). Wilmington has not seen a half foot of snow since December 1989--26 years ago! The return period going back to 1870 is 12 years!

Mother Nature, feel free to end that streak soon--next month would be great. :)


Get used to it and expect even more of this next Winter with El-Nino raging on. Could be atleast moderate come Fall. Models all seem to be falling in line with each other which is something you hate to hear as it effects your active hurricane season projections.


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Quoting 633. Naga5000:



I think my satirical comment was misinterpreted...

I'm on team science. I got the jersey and everything. :)




OH CAPTAIN MY CAPTAIN!

Put me in coach! Just give me a chance! :)
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Getting a heavy rain/sleet mix here right now, which wasn't predicted. Temperatures are a few degrees above freezing, which should prevent appreciable accumulation.

With all of these systems only clipping us, I decided to see how long it's been since an appreciable snowstorm (I'd mark that at approximately 6 inches). Wilmington has not seen a half foot of snow since December 1989--26 years ago! The return period going back to 1870 is 12 years!

Mother Nature, feel free to end that streak soon--next month would be great. :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
650. beell
Quoting 637. GeoffreyWPB:

Ugggggg. I'm usually not that naïve.



Here, Geoff. This should make it all better!

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Quoting 643. DCSwithunderscores:



Here's a recent article from Climate Central that shows that the rate of decline of arctic sea ice is greater than the rate of increase of antarctic sea ice, and thus that the global sea ice trend is down:

Link

Here's a short video that explains why we shouldn't be fooled by claims that arctic sea ice is increasing:

Link

This article, Making sense of Antarctic sea ice changes, covers some of the confusion people have on this topic.
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Quoting 638. VAbeachhurricanes:



"The great thing about the internet is that quotes can be from anyone" - Abraham Lincoln

Whether the quote is from the quote is from Julia Childs or Humphrey Bogart is not important. I have no idea from whom the quote originated; hence, "unknown".
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Quoting 644. Stormlover16:

Okay, so here in Delaware we literally went from a forecast of no snow to six inches in twenty four hours. What???



Forecasts change quickly. For example, Odile was originally going to be a fish storm well off to the west of baja but the forecast track shifted way off to the right a couple days later and CSL took a direct hit.
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Quoting 641. 882MB:





That clipper's almost at my doorstep. Those are decently high tops in the southeast so there's a decent amount of forcing.
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Is that energy over Illinois suppose to meet up with the southern system?.Looks like their about to collide.
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Okay, so here in Delaware we literally went from a forecast of no snow to six inches in twenty four hours. What???
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Quoting 616. jocapo:

the ice cap in the arctic is growing, the ice cap in the antarctic is growing. this does not happen when warmer climate prevails.


Here's a recent article from Climate Central that shows that the rate of decline of arctic sea ice is greater than the rate of increase of antarctic sea ice, and thus that the global sea ice trend is downward:

Link

Here's a short video that explains why we shouldn't be fooled by claims that arctic sea ice is increasing:

Link
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather