Are We Entering a New Period of Rapid Global Warming?

By: Bob Henson , 5:04 PM GMT on February 24, 2015

Residents of New England may understandably look back at 2015 as the year of their never-ending winter. For the planet as a whole, though, this year could stand out most for putting to rest the “hiatus”— the 15-year slowdown in atmospheric warming that gained intense scrutiny by pundits, scientists, and the public. While interesting in its own right, the hiatus garnered far more attention than it deserved as a purported sign that future global warming would be much less than expected. The slowdown was preceded by almost 20 years of dramatic global temperature rise, and with 2014 having set a new global record high, there are signs that another decade-plus period of intensified atmospheric warming may be at our doorstep.

The most compelling argument for a renewed surge in global air temperature is rooted in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This index tracks the fingerprint of sea surface temperature (SST) across the Pacific north of 20°N. A closely related index, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), covers a larger swath of the entire Pacific. Both the PDO and IPO capture back-and-forth swings in the geography of Pacific SSTs that affect the exchange of heat between ocean and atmosphere (see Figure 1). We’ll use PDO as shorthand for both indexes in the following discussion.

The PDO typically leans toward a positive or negative state for more than a decade at a time. The positive phase, which features warmer-than-average SSTs along the U.S. West Coast, was dominant from the mid-1970s to the late 1990s. The PDO then flipped to a negative phase between about 1999 and 2013, with cooler-than-average SSTs along the West Coast. Figure 2 shows that even when a particular mode is favored, the PDO can still flip back to its opposite mode for periods of a few months or so.


Figure 1. Departures from average sea-surface temperature (degrees C) and wind (arrows) that typically prevail when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in its positive mode (left) and negative mode (right). Image credit: University of Washington.


It’s not clear exactly what drives the PDO, but in some ways it can be viewed as a geographically expanded version of the SST patterns created by El Niño and La Niña, averaged over a longer time period. (See Figure 2.) It’s well-established that El Niño can raise global temperature for a few months by several tenths of a degree Celsius, as warm water spreads over the eastern tropical Pacific and mixes with the overlying atmosphere. Likewise, La Niña can act to pull down global average temperature, as cooler-than-average water extends further west than usual across the tropical Pacific. The PDO mirrors these trends, but over longer periods. When the PDO is positive, there are more El Niño and fewer La Niña events, and heat stored in the ocean tends to be spread across a larger surface area, allowing it to enter the atmosphere more easily. When the PDO is negative, SSTs are below average across a larger area, and global air temperatures tend to be lower.


Figure 2. Typical warm and cool anomalies in sea-surface temperature during positive PDO years (left) and El Niño years (right). The patterns are similar, though with differences in intensity over some regions. The anomalies are reversed for negative PDO and La Niña years. Image credit: University of Washington Climate Impacts Group.


Figure 3 shows a striking connection between favored PDO modes (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). The vast majority of atmospheric warming over the last century occurred during positive PDO phases, with negative PDOs tending to result in flat temperature trends. It’s easy to see how an atmospheric warming “hiatus” could occur during a negative PDO phase.


Figure 3. PDO values (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). Gray shading indicates positive PDO periods, when atmospheric warming was most evident. The NOAA PDO values shown here vary slightly from those discussed in the article, which are calculated by the University of Washington. Image credit: Jerimiah Brown, Weather Underground. Data sources:NOAA (top) and NOAA/NCDC (bottom).


From the AMS meeting
The hiatus was discussed at length in a series of talks during the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society last month in Phoenix. Jerry Meehl, from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (my former employer), gave a whirlwind 15-minute overview of hiatus-oriented research conducted over the last six years. Meehl’s talk can be viewed online. More than 20 papers have studied the hiatus and its links to the PDO/IPO, according to Matthew England (University of New South Wales). Most of the flattening of global temperature during the hiatus can be traced to cooler-than-average conditions over the eastern tropical Pacific, which pulled down global averages. An emerging theme is that natural, or internal, variability in the tropical Pacific can explain at least half of the hiatus. NCAR’s Clara Deser presented new modeling evidence along these lines (see video online). Other factors may be involved as well, including a series of weak volcanic eruptions that could explain a small part of the hiatus, according to a recent analysis by Ben Santer (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory).

One crucial point is that global warming didn’t “stop” during the hiatus: the world’s oceans actually gained heat at an accelerated pace. Trade winds blew more strongly from east to west across the Pacific, consistent with the tendency toward La Niña conditions, as described in this open-access article by NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo. Over parts of the central tropical Pacific, trade winds averaged about 3 mph stronger during 1999-2012 compared to 1976-1988. These speeds are higher than for any previous hiatus on record, bolstering the idea that other factors may have joined this negative PDO/IPO phase. The faster trade winds encouraged upwelling of cooler water to the east and helped deepen and strengthen the warm pool to the west—enough, in fact, to raise sea level around the Philippines by as much as 8 inches. Other parts of the deep ocean warmed as well. A new study led by Dean Roemmich (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) maps the areas of greatest ocean heating from 2006 to 2013 and finds that significant warming extended to depths of greater than 6600 feet.

What next for the PDO?
The PDO index, as calculated at the University of Washington, scored positive values during every month in 2014, the first such streak since 2003. By December it reached +2.51, the largest positive value for any December in records that go back to 1900. The January value from UW was 2.45, again a monthly record. (NOAA calculates its own PDO values through a closely related methodology.)

Because the PDO can flip modes for a year or more within its longer-term cycle, we don’t yet know whether a significant shift to a positive PDO phase has begun. If trade winds weaken throughout this year, and positive PDO values persist, that’ll be strong evidence that a new cycle is indeed under way. The last time we saw a two-year streak of positive values was in 1992-93. If this occurs, and assuming no spikes in major volcanic activity, we could expect greater rises in global temperature over the next 10 to 15 years than we’ve seen during the hiatus. In addition, we should watch for El Niño to make its presence known more often.

“I am inclined to think the hiatus is over, mainly based on the PDO index change,” NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth told me. While Matthew England isn’t ready to offer such a prediction, he emphasized that any post-hiatus global temperature rise is likely to be fairly rapid. Trenberth also commented on an interesting NOAA analysis (see Figure 4): “If one takes the global mean temperature from 1970 on, everything fits a linear trend quite well except 1998.”


Figure 4. When looking at global temperature over a full PDO cycle (1970s to 2010s), the overall rise becomes evident, despite the flattening observed in the last 15 years. Image credit: NOAA.


A record-strong El Niño occurred in 1998, providing an unusually powerful boost to global temperature and fueling years of subsequent declarations that “global warming stopped in 1998.” The record warmth of 2014 made it clear that global warming has no intention of stopping, and the next few years are likely to reinforce that point. Nevertheless, snowbound New Englanders, and millions of other easterners now dealing with record cold for so late in the year, may be wondering why eastern North America has seen so much cold and snow in the past few winters--especially this one--and how long that climatic quirk might continue. Stay tuned for a separate post on that topic.

Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting 616. jocapo:

the ice cap in the arctic is growing, the ice cap in the antarctic is growing. this does not happen when warmer climate prevails.


Here's a recent article from Climate Central that shows that the rate of decline of arctic sea ice is greater than the rate of increase of antarctic sea ice, and thus that the global sea ice trend is downward:

Link

Here's a short video that explains why we shouldn't be fooled by claims that arctic sea ice is increasing:

Link
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Quoting 639. Naga5000:



I'm a Stevie Wonder truther...my secret is out.




I am totally behind that movement, he looks at everything!
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641. 882MB
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We just had an incredible lightning strike here, the lightning hasn't been frequent but when we've had them they've been strong so far, we just had the most intense lightning strike I've seen since being here in Tallahassee, just saw a lightning strike hit a tree about 100 yards away while I was on the back porch! The power also went off temporarily then came back on.

By the way so far we are getting very heavy rain and gusty winds about 30-35 mph, darn good storm so far!
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Quoting 634. VAbeachhurricanes:



Don't lie Naga, we all know how secretly you are anti-science. You're one of our spies.


I'm a Stevie Wonder truther...my secret is out.

Edit: Warning there is adult language at that link. Please confirm you are over 18 before clicking, or at the very least, have parental permission.
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Quoting 636. oldnewmex:

"Science adjusts its views based on what is observed; faith denies observation so that belief can be preserved."
~unknown


"The great thing about the internet is that quotes can be from anyone" - Abraham Lincoln
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Ugggggg. I'm usually not that nave....

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"Science adjusts its views based on what is observed; faith denies observation so that belief can be preserved."
~unknown
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Quoting 633. Naga5000:



I think my satirical comment was misinterpreted...

I'm on team science. I got the jersey and everything. :)



Quote within the quote wasn't included. Not meant for you. Technical problems on my end.
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Quoting 633. Naga5000:



I think my satirical comment was misinterpreted...

I'm on team science. I got the jersey and everything. :)




Don't lie Naga, we all know how secretly you are anti-science. You're one of our spies.
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Quoting 619. wilsongti45:


Time magazines fault not the scientist's for correctly pointing out that aerosols can cause a negative radiation balance. How many times does the media misrepresent the conclusions of science? C'mon now. Argue about something with substance like the feedback of cloud formation. Then we can have a productive debate.


I think my satirical comment was misinterpreted...

I'm on team science. I got the jersey and everything. :)

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@621 I'v read the AFD, and the upping of snow totals happened after the AFD was issued. New forecaster got on I guess. I am guessing MahFL has the reason, but I find cold air advection to be a bit suspect. The air is not really that cold to the NW. Then again it wont take much.
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631. beell
SPC Experimental Product-Storm Reports Page
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Quoting 622. JNFlori30A:

Looks like we are just about done with the storms here (to the west of Panama City). Had some nice downpours and respectable t&l.


Yeah inflow winds have really picked up here, and I can see the intensity of the low level jet, low clouds are racing by! With the low level jet out of the southeast, I can see why the SPC has mentioned the tornado potential, however I think it's just too cool and stable for tornadoes, and I don't think we will see any tornado warnings around Tallahassee.

However, with shear profiles what they are and such a strong low level jet, any instability and decent updrafts could lead to severe weather, which is why the SPC is playing it safe and issuing the watch just in case. We should be glad there isn't much instability, this could have been a notable tornado event if instability was stronger.

It's actually starting to thunder here pretty good, honestly this is the first decent thunder activity I've heard in a long time up here, the last time I heard a lot of thunder was when I was in the Tampa Bay area near the beginning of February, we had a pretty strong squall line down there that produced summer like intensity lightning and about an inch of rain minutes.

Everything up here this semester has been just cool and stable moderate to steady heavy rains, no heavy thunderstorms with down pours.
Hopefully that will change this evening, the cells look to be getting a bit stronger as they approach.

I'll be sure to give an update on what we get here later :)


Well what do you know, these high shear low CAPE events don't usually do much around here, but here we go, could call on the watch SPC:



Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
FLC037-045-077-260045-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0006.150226T0022Z-150226T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
722 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
CENTRAL GULF COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PORT ST. JOE...

* UNTIL 745 PM EST/645 PM CST/

* AT 718 PM EST...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORT ST. JOE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WHITE
CITY...HONEYVILLE...DALKEITH...HOWARD CREEK...WILLIS LANDING...FORT
GADSDEN...OWENS BRIDGE...NIXON GARDEN...JENSEN PLACE...WILMA...
VILAS...TWIN POLE...SUMATRA...KERN AND CENTRAL CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
GET TO THE LOWEST FLOOR AND PUT AS MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE
TORNADO AS POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2982 8532 2983 8532 2985 8535 2989 8536
2992 8539 2997 8539 3028 8489 2998 8474
2980 8531
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 243DEG 43KT 2991 8530

$$

25-CAMP
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629. beell

(click for watch discussion)
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Quoting 586. weblackey:



I am delurking, uh oh.

Don't overlook this very important part of Jedkins' comment: "...it's only as good as the people who run it, but it's better than the other forms of government, despite it's many flaws and weaknesses"

I agree with that, capitalism without moderation is not healthy, nor sustainable, and not only in the ecological sense, economically too. Seems to me he wasn't bashing capitalism, he was critiquing it.


I definitely am not anti-capitalist, I'm fairly conservative, although the current republican party would probably call me a traitor liberal crazy for my stances on science and other issues. However I affirm that what I support represent what traditional conservatives would have in mind, and actually there is a growing number of young conservatives who also share my notably different views from the current generation of conservatives.

At any rate, I don't think Sar was saying I was bashing capitalism, I just think he was reflecting on the issue since I mentioned it.
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Predictions were for it to start raining in Charlotte about 7:00 PM - it didn't........at 7:00 PM it was snowing - big flakes - didn't have any rain at the beginning just all snow!!! Looks like we are going to get more than they predicted!!
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626. vis0
Was thinking of calling Grothar on the blob hot-line**on 2 blips , one off Africa other off Baja, Eastern Atlantic blip broke into 2 areas. The ePac blip is a high level rotation but a small lower level rotation is joining from the NNE. all this East of Hawaii.
http://youtu.be/9aXt1ALlUFk (784x790)

**(but noticed it was busy. callerID::"KrspyKrm")
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Quoting 597. GeoffreyWPB:

What were climate scientists predicting in the 1970s?




FAKE!

That Time magazine cover is fake. The image of the penguin is from April 9, 2007 Time magazine, but the headline that went with it on the cover was "The Global Warming Survival Guide". Someone took an image of that cover and changed the headline to "How To Survive The Coming Ice Age", and changed the date to April 9, 1977.

This just shows the level of deceit that some people go to to promote their anti-science agenda.

Here's an article that tells the story of that altered Time magazine cover:

Link
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624. MahFL
Quoting 617. hurricanehunter27:

NWS just upped snowfall totals for Atlanta, find that a wee bit strange. I guess they are viewing something I don't have access to. Calling for 2-4 inches in Atlanta proper tonight. Very cold rain atm. Anyone have an idea why they upped snow totals?


Cold air being sucked down from the NW, on the back side of the storm.
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Quoting 577. sar2401:

Jed, do you drive a car? How's the gas mileage? I'm guessing pretty good. Any idea of how much emissions it puts out? I'm guessing you could wrap your lips around the tail pipe and never keel over from the CO. My first new car was a 1965 Chevelle. Terrible car. It went 0 to 60 in about an hour, but I bought it because it was an "economy" car. It got 16 mpg highway and 14 city, which was amazingly good then. A combination of political crises, inflation, and gas shortages made people clamor for cars with good mileage. Detroit, wanting to make money, had to make cars that people wanted. Government regulations made sure the rules about fuel economy and pollution control applied to every car company. That's what happens with mixed-market capitalism. People got what they wanted, the demand for oil began to decrease, and the air, even in LA, started to get cleaner. The auto companies made money and the auto workers made money, All in all, it was a pretty good outcome.

Any idea what kind of car was being built in the Soviet Union to sell to the public? Pictured below is a spanking new 1966 GAZ-21. If you know anything about old cars, you can see it's a poorly done reverse engineering job from a 1949 Studebaker. It got about 10 mpg overall.The diesel model wasn't so bad - you got 12 mpg with it. It was the first Soviet car with both a radio and a heater. If you wanted one, you ordered it from the state Automobile Bureau. No easy payment plan. No choice of colors. You just order a car. You paid for the entire thing upfront. It cost about USD $23,000. Of course, this assume you got state approval to buy a car. The Gaz-21 was one of the dirtiest gasoline cars ever produced, beaten only by the infamous East German Trabant. Once you paid, you waited. Usually for a year and sometimes as much as three years. It usually didn't run right when you got it, if it ran at all, so the Gaz spent the first couple of months at the factory fixing production flaws.

I'll leave it to any consumer to decide which economy works better. Not perfect, just better.




Yeah I have a 1998 mitsubishi eclipse, gets about 32 highway and 24 city, pone of the best fuel mileage cars from the 90's and it's still in pretty darn good condition for a 90's vehicle! It's been very reliable too, I've put about 30,000 miles on it since I bout it with 50,000 miles 4 years ago and haven't had to fix anything except replace the muffler and the break pads, the muffler only needed replaced after road debris broke it open. Otherwise though the car has been flawlessly reliable for a 16-17 year old car that still is almost factory everything.

Anyways, no doubt, just ask anyone who's lived through such horrors, they'll tell you everything. But yes, that's why China became slowly less and less communist over the years, they came around to realizing it doesn't work very well, and leads to a massive amount of people who are poor and struggling.
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Looks like we are just about done with the storms here (to the west of Panama City). Had some nice downpours and respectable t&l.
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Quoting 617. hurricanehunter27:

NWS just upped snowfall totals for Atlanta, find that a wee bit strange. I guess they are viewing something I don't have access to. Calling for 2-4 inches in Atlanta proper tonight. Very cold rain atm. Anyone have an idea why they upped snow totals?

Here's their AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
643 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS THIS NO LONGER APPEARS TO
BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS NORTH GA. ALSO...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDER TO PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AS INSTABILITY HAS MOVED INTO
THIS AREA ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
0.4 TO 6+ INCHES OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH GA MAINLY
NORTH OF CEDARTOWN TO GAINESVILLE LINE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM... RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST RIGHT NOW. TEMPS ACROSS NORTH GA ARE RANGING FROM
33 TO 36 DEGREES AND SLOWLY FALLING AS THE PRECIP MOVES THROUGH.
THINGS ARE STILL SHAPING UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS STILL PRETTY
HIGH IN THE GENERAL TREND OF THE EVENT...BUT TEMPS ARE FALLING A BIT
SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BEGIN IN A FEW HOURS AS THE RAIN COOLED AIR HAS TIME TO GET
DOWN TO OR BELOW FREEZING. MAIN LOW CENTER FROM THIS SYSTEM IN ALONG
THE LA GULF COAST AND IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING NE TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THROUGH 12-18Z THU. THIS LOW CENTER HAS AN ABUNDANT
AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WILL PUSH IT ACROSS
GA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO
PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED FORECAST AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. MODELS ARE
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OVERALL
PRECIPITATION. QPF IS HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY SEE UP TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN. PRECIPITATION BEGINS MOVING OUT BETWEEN 00Z-06Z WITH
DRY SLOTTING PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SOUTH OF THE DEFORMATION
ZONES SETTING UP ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. AS THIS SURFACE LOW PUSHES
ACROSS THE SERN U.S. THERE ARE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN AL/GA. INSTABILITIES ARE WEAK ACROSS OUR
AREA BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR 2
ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE. HAVE NOT ADDED ANY
THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS IT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
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Quoting 616. jocapo:

the ice cap in the arctic is growing, the ice cap in the antarctic is growing. this does not happen when warmer climate prevails.

Classic, Epic post.

Good Grief !

sigh.....
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Quoting 604. Naga5000:



I wonder if any were predicting that we would have the ability to debunk nonsense claims in seconds using only our hand and pointer finger.

Give that man a Nobel!

Edited, because I typed too fast. No scientist has invented the cure for stupid fingers.

Time magazines fault not the scientist's for correctly pointing out that aerosols can cause a negative radiation balance. How many times does the media misrepresent the conclusions of science? C'mon now. Argue about something with substance like the feedback of cloud formation. Then we can have a productive debate.
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Quoting 601. TimTheWxMan:

Isn't Jedkins from Tallahassee? If so, he's got a tornado watch, though there's only a chance of isolated tornadoes though there's a good amount of shear.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 4 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 635 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 635 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...MEAD


I'm from the Tampa Bay area , but I go to school in Tallahassee!
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NWS just upped snowfall totals for Atlanta, find that a wee bit strange. I guess they are viewing something I don't have access to. Calling for 2-4 inches in Atlanta proper tonight. Very cold rain atm. Anyone have an idea why they upped snow totals?

Edit: They have it at 3-5 inches now... can't be right.
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Quoting 604. Naga5000:



I wonder if any were predicting that we would have the ability to debunk nonsense claims in seconds using only our hand and pointer finger.

Give that man a Nobel!

Edited, because I typed too fast. No scientist has invented the cure for stupid fingers.


Alex, this is my daily double and the question is: who is Arthur C. Clarke?

http://climatecrocks.com/2015/02/07/arthur-c-clar ke-isaac-asimov-science-fiction-giants-clear-views -of-the-future/

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Quoting 611. wartsttocs:



Sounds like something from Isaac Asimov with hot sauce on top! smiley face

Asimov had some gems.

"Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge'."

or

"The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom."
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Quoting 605. Patrap:


Veering wind profile, shear aloft, and a little bit of CAPE.

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Quoting 606. VAbeachhurricanes:



A noble what?


Sorry, a slip up. Should have read Nobel as in a Nobel prize to the guy who invented the computer mouse. :)
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Quoting 603. Patrap:

Ones ignorance is NOT equal to another's learned knowledge and a Body of Science.

Always.

Pass the tabasco please?




Sounds like something from Isaac Asimov with hot sauce on top! smiley face
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Quoting 606. VAbeachhurricanes:



A noble what?
I think he meant an Ignobel.
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
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Quoting 604. Naga5000:



I wonder if any were predicting that we would have the ability to debunk nonsense claims in seconds using only our hand and pointer finger.

Give that man a Noble!


A noble what?
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 597. GeoffreyWPB:

What were climate scientists predicting in the 1970s?




I wonder if any were predicting that we would have the ability to debunk nonsense claims in seconds using only our hand and pointer finger.

Give that man a Nobel!

Edited, because I typed too fast. No scientist has invented the cure for stupid fingers.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Ones ignorance is NOT equal to another's learned knowledge and a Body of Science.

Always.

Pass the tabasco please?

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Quoting 590. jrweatherman:



You are correct
Quoting 589. wormuths:

I'm still waiting for the imminent ice age we were being promised in the 1970's. This 'science' of global warming is far from settled, and we need to stop treating it as if it were fact.
Quoting 465. Phaselinear:

"It's the Sun stupid"...so says the bumper sticker. I read several articles over the years on this subject, and a couple stood out. Why are the other planets warming too, but have no HUMAN footprint on them to cause a sudden shift in temperatures? The Sun is a cyclic entity, and has it's moments too. There is nothing we can do about it. The only thing man can do to clean up the planet is not to pollute it, and that's it.


Wow at the idiocracy that has taken place in this blog the past 2 days. Some of you people don't have respect and should just log out and actually go learn some manners. I have never seen a science blog trashed as much as this one from people who have disrespected those who have worked hard and tireless hours to research into climate science and get a degree in the same field or similar such as Dr. Masters himself. Some of you people should be ashamed. If only I knew some of you people I think I would have no choice but to put you in your place. It does no good in shouting at a wall though. Yes, certainly you can disagree with climate science and the topic of Global Warming or be uncertain about the processes that adhere to it, such as Opal92, but please for the love of humanity can we stop with the constant trolling, spamming of one liners that not only is way out in left field, but is completely rude and disrespectful. Show some respect and disagree if you have to in a civil way. The way some of you newcomers act it is like in an Elementary School classroom. So sick and tired of this blog being trashed almost to the point I am wishing this hurricane season can come soon enough. I can deal with the hurricane season trolls, but not the ones that come here trying to debunk a sound science.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Isn't Jedkins from Tallahassee? If so, he's got a tornado watch, though there's only a chance of isolated tornadoes though there's a good amount of shear.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 4 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 635 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 635 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...MEAD
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Oh....... the "ice age in the seventies"........ Got anything better than that?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XB3S0fnOr0M
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Quoting 537. NativeSun:

Lets see what the next few observations have to show before we come to any conclusions, after all how long has it been since we really understood the basics of the weather. let alone climate science. We are so young as a species, and have so much to learn, I just hope capitalism doesn't get in the way and cause a warmer world which we can know longer live in.

" Lets see what the next few observations have to show before we come to any conclusions"
It has been a decade already. Two different locations.
" after all how long has it been since we really understood the basics of the weather"
If you mean the basics of thermodynamics and fluid mechanics, since the 19th century. We fully understand the physics which comprises weather. Having enough data and being able to do all the calculations is a different story.
" let alone climate science"
Same scientific principles
"We are so young as a species, and have so much to learn"
Very true. However, this is the part we do know. Please if there is a scientific principle that influences weather that is unknown, please call it to my attention.
"I just hope capitalism doesn't get in the way and cause a warmer world which we can know longer live in"
Capitalism has nothing to do with this.

Sorry for being critical...

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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY MORNING...

SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING...AT TIMES MIXED
WITH SLEET. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OVER 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. A MIX OF SLEET...SNOW
AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTA METRO
COUNTIES. PLEASE REFER TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND OTHER
MESSAGES ON NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER DOT GOV OR OUR MESSAGES
ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS WINTER STORM.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING.

BLACK ICE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY OVER NORTH GEORGIA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

BLACK ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUIRED BUT OBSERVERS ARE STRONGLY
ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT SNOW AMOUNTS AND ROAD CONDITIONS ON THE WEB
AT WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA OR WITH TWITTER USING THE GAWX HASHTAG OR
TAGGING AT NWS ATLANTA.

$$
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EDIT: removed duplicate comment
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Quoting 589. wormuths:

I'm still waiting for the imminent ice age we were being promised in the 1970's. This 'science' of global warming is far from settled, and we need to stop treating it as if it were fact.


The neat thing is, an assertion like this is testable-- there are any number of keyword-searchable archives of both modern and past peer-reviewed journals in the natural sciences. Go look up what the level of consensus is. You can look at what the active climate scientists were saying back in the 1960's and 1970's, and decide what was being 'promised' by whom.

One problem-- the work I've just described has already been done, so it won't be a novel result; even worse for your argument, the published result debunks your drive-by denialism. But you can easily confirm the result independently if you don't trust the study for whatever reason.

Link to Peterson et al. 2008 PDF: Link
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...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN AL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO SRN GA/NRN FL...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED
TORNADOES COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITHIN A SMALL CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
ADJACENT/NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

...DISCUSSION...
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT APPEARS NECESSARY TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
ATTM...AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM A N CENTRAL GULF SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES GRADUAL NWD MOVEMENT TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE COAST.
ONSHORE ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT -- AND THE ASSOCIATED MORE
UNSTABLE/HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF -- IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ONLY IN A BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME/SPACE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
EXHIBITING SUBSTANTIAL VEERING/STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THIS
REGION...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION /AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO POTENTIAL/ WITH ANY
SURFACE- OR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORM. THUS -- WILL MAINTAIN THE
ONGOING 5% TORNADO/SLIGHT RISK AREAS THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 02/25/2015
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Quoting 589. wormuths:

I'm still waiting for the imminent ice age we were being promised in the 1970's. This 'science' of global warming is far from settled, and we need to stop treating it as if it were fact.


In the 1970's a small minority of climate scientists were predicting the possibility of a global cooling because of the cooling effect of a certain type of aerosol pollution, if that pollution were to continue to increase. That pollution was reduced for other reasons (such as acid rain), after which those climate scientists joined the majority in predicting a global warming.

I would be interested in seeing your source for "the imminent ice age we were being promised in the 1970's". ("Promised" and "imminent" are fairly strong words.)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather