Are We Entering a New Period of Rapid Global Warming?

By: Bob Henson , 5:04 PM GMT on February 24, 2015

Residents of New England may understandably look back at 2015 as the year of their never-ending winter. For the planet as a whole, though, this year could stand out most for putting to rest the “hiatus”— the 15-year slowdown in atmospheric warming that gained intense scrutiny by pundits, scientists, and the public. While interesting in its own right, the hiatus garnered far more attention than it deserved as a purported sign that future global warming would be much less than expected. The slowdown was preceded by almost 20 years of dramatic global temperature rise, and with 2014 having set a new global record high, there are signs that another decade-plus period of intensified atmospheric warming may be at our doorstep.

The most compelling argument for a renewed surge in global air temperature is rooted in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This index tracks the fingerprint of sea surface temperature (SST) across the Pacific north of 20°N. A closely related index, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), covers a larger swath of the entire Pacific. Both the PDO and IPO capture back-and-forth swings in the geography of Pacific SSTs that affect the exchange of heat between ocean and atmosphere (see Figure 1). We’ll use PDO as shorthand for both indexes in the following discussion.

The PDO typically leans toward a positive or negative state for more than a decade at a time. The positive phase, which features warmer-than-average SSTs along the U.S. West Coast, was dominant from the mid-1970s to the late 1990s. The PDO then flipped to a negative phase between about 1999 and 2013, with cooler-than-average SSTs along the West Coast. Figure 2 shows that even when a particular mode is favored, the PDO can still flip back to its opposite mode for periods of a few months or so.


Figure 1. Departures from average sea-surface temperature (degrees C) and wind (arrows) that typically prevail when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in its positive mode (left) and negative mode (right). Image credit: University of Washington.


It’s not clear exactly what drives the PDO, but in some ways it can be viewed as a geographically expanded version of the SST patterns created by El Niño and La Niña, averaged over a longer time period. (See Figure 2.) It’s well-established that El Niño can raise global temperature for a few months by several tenths of a degree Celsius, as warm water spreads over the eastern tropical Pacific and mixes with the overlying atmosphere. Likewise, La Niña can act to pull down global average temperature, as cooler-than-average water extends further west than usual across the tropical Pacific. The PDO mirrors these trends, but over longer periods. When the PDO is positive, there are more El Niño and fewer La Niña events, and heat stored in the ocean tends to be spread across a larger surface area, allowing it to enter the atmosphere more easily. When the PDO is negative, SSTs are below average across a larger area, and global air temperatures tend to be lower.


Figure 2. Typical warm and cool anomalies in sea-surface temperature during positive PDO years (left) and El Niño years (right). The patterns are similar, though with differences in intensity over some regions. The anomalies are reversed for negative PDO and La Niña years. Image credit: University of Washington Climate Impacts Group.


Figure 3 shows a striking connection between favored PDO modes (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). The vast majority of atmospheric warming over the last century occurred during positive PDO phases, with negative PDOs tending to result in flat temperature trends. It’s easy to see how an atmospheric warming “hiatus” could occur during a negative PDO phase.


Figure 3. PDO values (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). Gray shading indicates positive PDO periods, when atmospheric warming was most evident. The NOAA PDO values shown here vary slightly from those discussed in the article, which are calculated by the University of Washington. Image credit: Jerimiah Brown, Weather Underground. Data sources:NOAA (top) and NOAA/NCDC (bottom).


From the AMS meeting
The hiatus was discussed at length in a series of talks during the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society last month in Phoenix. Jerry Meehl, from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (my former employer), gave a whirlwind 15-minute overview of hiatus-oriented research conducted over the last six years. Meehl’s talk can be viewed online. More than 20 papers have studied the hiatus and its links to the PDO/IPO, according to Matthew England (University of New South Wales). Most of the flattening of global temperature during the hiatus can be traced to cooler-than-average conditions over the eastern tropical Pacific, which pulled down global averages. An emerging theme is that natural, or internal, variability in the tropical Pacific can explain at least half of the hiatus. NCAR’s Clara Deser presented new modeling evidence along these lines (see video online). Other factors may be involved as well, including a series of weak volcanic eruptions that could explain a small part of the hiatus, according to a recent analysis by Ben Santer (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory).

One crucial point is that global warming didn’t “stop” during the hiatus: the world’s oceans actually gained heat at an accelerated pace. Trade winds blew more strongly from east to west across the Pacific, consistent with the tendency toward La Niña conditions, as described in this open-access article by NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo. Over parts of the central tropical Pacific, trade winds averaged about 3 mph stronger during 1999-2012 compared to 1976-1988. These speeds are higher than for any previous hiatus on record, bolstering the idea that other factors may have joined this negative PDO/IPO phase. The faster trade winds encouraged upwelling of cooler water to the east and helped deepen and strengthen the warm pool to the west—enough, in fact, to raise sea level around the Philippines by as much as 8 inches. Other parts of the deep ocean warmed as well. A new study led by Dean Roemmich (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) maps the areas of greatest ocean heating from 2006 to 2013 and finds that significant warming extended to depths of greater than 6600 feet.

What next for the PDO?
The PDO index, as calculated at the University of Washington, scored positive values during every month in 2014, the first such streak since 2003. By December it reached +2.51, the largest positive value for any December in records that go back to 1900. The January value from UW was 2.45, again a monthly record. (NOAA calculates its own PDO values through a closely related methodology.)

Because the PDO can flip modes for a year or more within its longer-term cycle, we don’t yet know whether a significant shift to a positive PDO phase has begun. If trade winds weaken throughout this year, and positive PDO values persist, that’ll be strong evidence that a new cycle is indeed under way. The last time we saw a two-year streak of positive values was in 1992-93. If this occurs, and assuming no spikes in major volcanic activity, we could expect greater rises in global temperature over the next 10 to 15 years than we’ve seen during the hiatus. In addition, we should watch for El Niño to make its presence known more often.

“I am inclined to think the hiatus is over, mainly based on the PDO index change,” NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth told me. While Matthew England isn’t ready to offer such a prediction, he emphasized that any post-hiatus global temperature rise is likely to be fairly rapid. Trenberth also commented on an interesting NOAA analysis (see Figure 4): “If one takes the global mean temperature from 1970 on, everything fits a linear trend quite well except 1998.”


Figure 4. When looking at global temperature over a full PDO cycle (1970s to 2010s), the overall rise becomes evident, despite the flattening observed in the last 15 years. Image credit: NOAA.


A record-strong El Niño occurred in 1998, providing an unusually powerful boost to global temperature and fueling years of subsequent declarations that “global warming stopped in 1998.” The record warmth of 2014 made it clear that global warming has no intention of stopping, and the next few years are likely to reinforce that point. Nevertheless, snowbound New Englanders, and millions of other easterners now dealing with record cold for so late in the year, may be wondering why eastern North America has seen so much cold and snow in the past few winters--especially this one--and how long that climatic quirk might continue. Stay tuned for a separate post on that topic.

Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting 589. wormuths:

I'm still waiting for the imminent ice age we were being promised in the 1970's. This 'science' of global warming is far from settled, and we need to stop treating it as if it were fact.


In the 1970's a small minority of climate scientists were predicting the possibility of a global cooling because of the cooling effect of a certain type of aerosol pollution, if that pollution were to continue to increase. That pollution was reduced for other reasons (such as acid rain), after which those climate scientists joined the majority in predicting a global warming.

I would be interested in seeing your source for "the imminent ice age we were being promised in the 1970's". ("Promised" and "imminent" are fairly strong words.)
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Super, super post. This has to be bookmarked for future reference.

And speaking of warming trends, there's not much about Nassau wx today to suggest we had temps in the 50s just last week. Today's high was 82...
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We?

LoL
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Quoting 562. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Link


I was seven or eight when that came out (I think). BIG died in 1997 and that song was written about that.

Mine was a Color Me Badd song, thought it would be something by Whitney Houston or some awful power ballad.
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Closer to normal temps which are 68/45, today 71.8/48.4
but back on the high side. Last 4 days were in the 60's....
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Quoting 577. sar2401:

Jed, do you drive a car? How's the gas mileage? I'm guessing pretty good. Any idea of how much emissions it puts out? I'm guessing you could wrap your lips around the tail pipe and never keel over from the CO. My first new car was a 1965 Chevelle. Terrible car. It went 0 to 60 in about an hour, but I bought it because it was an "economy" car. It got 16 mpg highway and 14 city, which was amazingly good then. A combination of political crises, inflation, and gas shortages made people clamor for cars with good mileage. Detroit, wanting to make money, had to make cars that people wanted. Government regulations made sure the rules about fuel economy and pollution control applied to every car company. That's what happens with mixed-market capitalism. People got what they wanted, the demand for oil began to decrease, and the air, even in LA, started to get cleaner. The auto companies made money and the auto workers made money, All in all, it was a pretty good outcome.

Any idea what kind of car was being built in the Soviet Union to sell to the public? Pictured below is a spanking new 1966 GAZ-21. If you know anything about old cars, you can see it's a poorly done reverse engineering job from a 1949 Studebaker. It got about 10 mpg overall.The diesel model wasn't so bad - you got 12 mpg with it. It was the first Soviet car with both a radio and a heater. If you wanted one, you ordered it from the state Automobile Bureau. No easy payment plan. No choice of colors. You just order a car. You paid for the entire thing upfront. It cost about USD $23,000. Of course, this assume you got state approval to buy a car. The Gaz-21 was one of the dirtiest gasoline cars ever produced, beaten only by the infamous East German Trabant. Once you paid, you waited. Usually for a year and sometimes as much as three years. It usually didn't run right when you got it, if it ran at all, so the Gaz spent the first couple of months at the factory fixing production flaws.

I'll leave it to any consumer to decide which economy works better. Not perfect, just better.



I am delurking, uh oh.

Don't overlook this very important part of Jedkins' comment: "...it's only as good as the people who run it, but it's better than the other forms of government, despite it's many flaws and weaknesses"

I agree with that, capitalism without moderation is not healthy, nor sustainable, and not only in the ecological sense, economically too. Seems to me he wasn't bashing capitalism, he was critiquing it.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 252143Z - 252345Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...SURFACE-BASED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AMIDST WIND FIELDS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. AS SUCH...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...AIRMASS S OF THE FL PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO MODIFY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 70 MI SSE OF MOB -- APPROACHES. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WITH THE WARM SECTOR SUBSEQUENTLY MOVING INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE. THIS WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AROUND 00Z. MATURING CYCLONE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY-STACKED...ENHANCING MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 0-1 KM SRH VALUES AROUND 500 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR TOPPING 80 KTS. THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW FAR INLAND THE WARM SECTOR MAKES IT BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TROUGH. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. ..MOSIER/HART/GRAMS.. 02/25/2015
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Quoting 570. Patrap:

Back to you guys in the studio


he will be back reporting the next storm again
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yea it might be alittle warmer than in the past but there also is a heck of alot more concrete around. hum
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Quoting 579. dabirds:

Made it above freezing again in S C IL, forecast yesterday only showed upper 20s. Heard on radio that StL made it all the way to 45. Light easterly winds that earlier had a little SE bias now have a NE bias. Pressure has been pretty steady just below 29.9". Sunshine we had earlier has given way to clouds. Looks like the snow approaching from the NW has crossed the IL River - have any accumulation wabit? Keep lowering the forecast temp for Sun., so looking more like that will be an all snow event. Long range has more precip starting Mon night as snow, changing to rain on Tues. After lull in Dec. & Jan., we're closing in on 2' for the winter, if not there already.



It hit around 43 in STL (at least on my weather station). It melted most of the remaining snow here. With this next clipper, i could see 1-2 additional inches of snow.
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Hey Sar, there are a couple more civil emergency messages for alabama. Funny how they issue them every time it snows down there.


Civil Emergency MessageALC019-055-261200- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE ALABAMA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY CLANTON ALABAMA RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 308 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015 THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE ALABAMA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY CLANTON ALABAMA AND INDIVIDUAL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES. THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE IMPACTED BY WINTER WEATHER...ETOWAH...CHEROKEE. NUMEROUS ROADWAYS...INCLUDING SOME MAJOR HIGHWAYS...ARE HAZARDOUS DUE TO SNOW. SOME OF THESE ROADWAYS HAVE BECOME IMPASSABLE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. THESE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES REQUEST THAT TRAVEL BE LIMITED TO EMERGENCIES ONLY FOR YOUR SAFETY AND THE SAFETY OF FIRST RESPONDERS. $$ALC009-075-093-127-261200- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE ALABAMA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY CLANTON ALABAMA RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 231 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015 THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE ALABAMA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY CLANTON ALABAMA AND INDIVIDUAL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES. THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE IMPACTED BY WINTER WEATHER...BLOUNT...LAMAR...MARION...WALKER. NUMEROUS ROADWAYS...INCLUDING SOME MAJOR HIGHWAYS...ARE HAZARDOUS DUE TO SNOW. SOME OF THESE ROADWAYS HAVE BECOME IMPASSABLE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. THESE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES REQUEST THAT TRAVEL BE LIMITED TO EMERGENCIES ONLY FOR YOUR SAFETY AND THE SAFETY OF FIRST RESPONDERS. $$
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Made it above freezing again in S C IL, forecast yesterday only showed upper 20s. Heard on radio that StL made it all the way to 45. Light easterly winds that earlier had a little SE bias now have a NE bias. Pressure has been pretty steady just below 29.9". Sunshine we had earlier has given way to clouds. Looks like the snow approaching from the NW has crossed the IL River - have any accumulation wabit? Keep lowering the forecast temp for Sun., so looking more like that will be an all snow event. Long range has more precip starting Mon night as snow, changing to rain on Tues. After lull in Dec. & Jan., we're closing in on 2' for the winter, if not there already.
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Quoting 531. trunkmonkey:

I need a little global warming here in Indiana, it's been below normal temperatures going on 19 months in a row, last summer it only reached 90 degrees F two times.
It's been 20 to 30 degrees colder then it suppose to be for this time of year.
The increased carbon is making those in the midwest colder!


Indiana has trended warmer by about 0.26 C / 0.47 F per decade since 1960.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Capitalism can't save anyone from AGW, it's only as good as the people who run it, but it's better than the other forms of government, despite it's many flaws and weaknesses. If we want to ruin the world faster than AGW, letting fear grip us such that we change government and economics too quickly in response to it will ruin the world a lot faster than AGW.

The problem is, large CO2 burning is heavily integrated into the economy of most nations, and it can't just be quickly and easily removed. It's going to take a lot of cooperation and people working together to make smart and wise decisions.
Jed, do you drive a car? How's the gas mileage? I'm guessing pretty good. Any idea of how much emissions it puts out? I'm guessing you could wrap your lips around the tail pipe and never keel over from the CO. My first new car was a 1965 Chevelle. Terrible car. It went 0 to 60 in about an hour, but I bought it because it was an "economy" car. It got 16 mpg highway and 14 city, which was amazingly good then. A combination of political crises, inflation, and gas shortages made people clamor for cars with good mileage. Detroit, wanting to make money, had to make cars that people wanted. Government regulations made sure the rules about fuel economy and pollution control applied to every car company. That's what happens with mixed-market capitalism. People got what they wanted, the demand for oil began to decrease, and the air, even in LA, started to get cleaner. The auto companies made money and the auto workers made money, All in all, it was a pretty good outcome.

Any idea what kind of car was being built in the Soviet Union to sell to the public? Pictured below is a spanking new 1966 GAZ-21. If you know anything about old cars, you can see it's a poorly done reverse engineering job from a 1949 Studebaker. It got about 10 mpg overall.The diesel model wasn't so bad - you got 12 mpg with it. It was the first Soviet car with both a radio and a heater. If you wanted one, you ordered it from the state Automobile Bureau. No easy payment plan. No choice of colors. You just order a car. You paid for the entire thing upfront. It cost about USD $23,000. Of course, this assume you got state approval to buy a car. The Gaz-21 was one of the dirtiest gasoline cars ever produced, beaten only by the infamous East German Trabant. Once you paid, you waited. Usually for a year and sometimes as much as three years. It usually didn't run right when you got it, if it ran at all, so the Gaz spent the first couple of months at the factory fixing production flaws.

I'll leave it to any consumer to decide which economy works better. Not perfect, just better.

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Quoting 572. wartsttocs:



I am assuming that was a joke and you know the difference between below normal in Indiana and global warming. Although I wonder if your previous comparison of NAZI Germany to this blog was a joke also.
Quoting 572. wartsttocs:



I am assuming that was a joke and you know the difference between below normal in Indiana and global warming. Although I wonder if your previous comparison of NAZI Germany to this blog was a joke also.

This isn't the first time he's posted this. He's had the west coast "Rediculously Resilient Ridge" and the resulting ongoing drought and downstream trough called to his attention, as if that should be necessary on this site, obviously to no avail. The next time we hear from this under a bridge dweller, I'm sure it will be something similarly insightful
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Quoting 573. ACSeattle:


Wow! Unfortunately, the ethos since the Industrial Revolution has been that the economy most definitely IS more important than the environment. After all, if you've got enough money, you can live upsteam of the discharge pipe and upwind of the smoke stacks




Well you aren't doing anything about the environment with a bad economy so... I guess it is more important.
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Quoting 526. schistkicker:
.
Besides, if you're claiming trace constituents can't cause damage, then you won't mind drinking a glass of water with a few ppm arsenic, will you? Or sitting in a room containing 500 ppm of hydrogen sulfide gas?

Was going to comment earlier, you can ask all the older workers that worked in coke plants about "trace" amounts of benzene, except a lot of them died of cancer. Having worked in the steel industry "trace" amounts can definitely harmful.
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Quoting 569. wartsttocs:



I can't remember where I heard it, but the saying is "If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while you count your money".

Wow! Unfortunately, the ethos since the Industrial Revolution has been that the economy most definitely IS more important than the environment. After all, if you've got enough money, you can live upsteam of the discharge pipe and upwind of the smoke stacks

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Quoting 531. trunkmonkey:

I need a little global warming here in Indiana, it's been below normal temperatures going on 19 months in a row, last summer it only reached 90 degrees F two times.
It's been 20 to 30 degrees colder then it suppose to be for this time of year.
The increased carbon is making those in the midwest colder!


I am assuming that was a joke and you know the difference between below normal in Indiana and global warming. Although I wonder if your previous comparison of NAZI Germany to this blog was a joke also.
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Quoting 551. nrtiwlnvragn:

Way off topic.....

Find the #1 Song on the Day You Were Born

Note: May not work for Gro

Since we're sharing :)
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Back to you guys in the studio

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Quoting 522. wxgeek723:

It shouldn't be about money. It's absurd. Climate change poses an urgent and very legitimate threat to the functionality of human society, if not all of mankind. Something like that should automatically supersede the petty issues that man drums up. The days of denialism are numbered anyway. Only a matter of time.



I can't remember where I heard it, but the saying is "If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while you count your money".
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Quoting 563. CaneFreeCR:

You have stated the truth -- but the truth is, in this case revealing. Capitalism is not truly a form of government, it is an economic system, but capitalism has taken over the US government and that, I think, is creating a lot of the perceived problems, including refusal to limit capitalist hegemony and the consequent environmental damage. Democracy does not equal capitalism, nor vice versa. (end of rant)



You're right actually, capitalism is an economic system and I was wrong for calling it a form of government lol, and in fact has replaced government too much so, such that both the conservatives and liberals are known for heavily being involved in policies influenced by corporate America in this time.

Capitalism is a great form of economics, but shouldn't run and dictate what the government does, which is dangerous.

Now technically, the U.S. is a constitutional republic, which is a form of democracy, since true democracy can be a bit unstable.
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Quoting 562. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Link


Link
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Quoting 556. tampabaymatt:



The NWS is calling for the possibility of severe thunderstorms tonight in Citrus and Hernando counties.

I’m a big fan of Bay News 9. But, their chance of rain percentage forecasts have been extremely poor so far during the dry season. I’m not sure what their methodology is for assigning it. During the summer, they are very upfront about it, and state that the percent chance of rain is tantamount to the percent of the Tampa Bay area that will be affected by summer thunderstorms. However they do it during the dry season is beyond me. For some of these recent rain events, models were all in agreement that C FL would get rained on, and Bay News 9 would show 70% even up to the day before. If models are all in agreement, why 70%, just make it 100%? I’ve been pretty disappointed with however they are doing this during the non-thunderstorm season.


Interesting, I don't really know for sure, but I suspect it might be that because it's not the rainy season that heavy rain isn't given as much attention.

It's funny how often I see people get shocked about heavy rain this time of year, but when you actually think about what the average rain is during these months, it's actually not that bad, it's just dry relative to the overall climate and relative to the rainy season. However, the many of the monthly rain averages during the dry season is pretty normal for a monthly rainfall average in many temperate climates. And if you did up the record books, there have been plenty of heavy rain events in the winter and spring over year, it's just rainfalls isn't nearly as consistently plentiful. It's the result of relying on jet stream patterns, which are very variable for rainfall, unlike tropical seasonal rains that we get in the rainy season which more reliably leads to a rainy month.
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TWC again showed a clip of the Mayor of Atlanta's speech, but this time they left off the part where he said that TWC forecast a 100% chance of snow for the city.

I find if very interesting. The Mayor made it seem as if his decisions were based on TWC's 100% prediction of snow.

Government officials stop using the National Weather Service?

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Quoting 465. Phaselinear:

"It's the Sun stupid"...so says the bumper sticker. I read several articles over the years on this subject, and a couple stood out. Why are the other planets warming too, but have no HUMAN footprint on them to cause a sudden shift in temperatures? The Sun is a cyclic entity, and has it's moments too. There is nothing we can do about it. The only thing man can do to clean up the planet is not to pollute it, and that's it.


Were some of those articles that "stood out" authored by a man named Soon? Post denier-gate it is hard to believe anyone would seriously bring "the sun" thing up in regards to recent warming. I am aware of the 11 year solar cycle, but beyond that I don't think there is evidence of a longer term "cycle". (I could be wrong) If there is what causes it and what is the empirical evidence? I think just throwing out the world "cycle" without identifying it and explaining it is worthless.
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Quoting 541. Jedkins01:



Capitalism can't save anyone from AGW, it's only as good as the people who run it, but it's better than the other forms of government, despite it's many flaws and weaknesses. (snip)
You have stated the truth -- but the truth is, in this case revealing. Capitalism is not truly a form of government, it is an economic system, but capitalism has taken over the US government and that, I think, is creating a lot of the perceived problems, including refusal to limit capitalist hegemony and the consequent environmental damage. Democracy does not equal capitalism, nor vice versa. (end of rant)
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Quoting 551. nrtiwlnvragn:

Way off topic.....

Find the #1 Song on the Day You Were Born

Note: May not work for Gro

Link
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37 degrees in Atlanta.
TWC says "no accumulations for Atlanta."
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6 to 12 inches of snow!
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Winter Storm Remus: Wintry Mess Across South, Snow for Midwest (FORECAST)
Published Feb 25 2015 02:05 PM EST

How Much Snow?
South, East:

Our forecast map below shows a stripe of accumulating snow from north Texas, southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana to northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, southern and east Tennessee, northern Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland and the Delmarva peninsula. Within this roughly 1,300 mile-long swath of snow, a few areas could pick up over 6 inches of total snowfall.
There will be a sharp cutoff on the southern side of the accumulating snow swath where amounts may range from very little to a few inches in a short distance. This sharp cutoff will be very near parts of the Birmingham and Atlanta metro areas.
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Quoting 552. Jedkins01:



NWS still have 70% overnight but the models are clearing it through faster now so rainfall amounts are probably not going to be as high due to the faster speed.

Also, models overdid the impressiveness of this whole in general, the entire system is looking a lot more meager than model forecasts suggested. With temps only in the 50's and instability that is virtually non-existent. I really don't know why the SPC has Tallahassee in a slight risk, sure shear and upper support are strong, but even now, the upper support doesn't seem to be doing it's job too well so far, and even if it does ramp up. We've had way too many SPC slight risk events like this where shear and upper level energy look great but the instability is just too weak to support anything serious. I am pretty confident we won't see anything severe, but I would think a couple strong or isolated severe cells could impact areas right along the coast if any strong convection can get going later.

I guess the SPC feels like it's better to be safe than sorry just in case an area of local instability were to be utilized unexpectedly, because it wouldn't take much to get strong activity going, it just seems unlikely.


Seems to me though that bay news 9 rain chances are looking a little too low compared to the NWS.


The NWS is calling for the possibility of severe thunderstorms tonight in Citrus and Hernando counties.

I%u2019m a big fan of Bay News 9. But, their chance of rain percentage forecasts have been extremely poor so far during the dry season. I%u2019m not sure what their methodology is for assigning it. During the summer, they are very upfront about it, and state that the percent chance of rain is tantamount to the percent of the Tampa Bay area that will be affected by summer thunderstorms. However they do it during the dry season is beyond me. For some of these recent rain events, models were all in agreement that C FL would get rained on, and Bay News 9 would show 70% even up to the morning of. If models are all in agreement, why 70%, just make it 100%? I%u2019ve been pretty disappointed with however they are doing this during the non-thunderstorm season.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Did you see the video on TWC where the Mayor of Atlanta said that TWC said that there was a 100% chance of snow for Atlanta so they shut down government business this afternoon, etc.

TWC meteorologist said "did we really say 100% chance?"
He's going to explain it in a minute.
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Quoting 465. Phaselinear:

(snip)The only thing man can do to clean up the planet is not to pollute it, and that's it.
BINGO! Carbon dioxide emissions from cars, trucks, trains, and power plants are pollution. That pollution is causing the anomalous warming of Planet Earth, and we need to clean up the planet by not polluting it! You hit the nail squarely on the head.
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South Radar and Current Temperatures
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Quoting 540. tampabaymatt:



Wow. Thursday rain chances for Tampa Bay were as high as 70% earlier today. I guess they have a better idea on the path of the low now.


NWS still has 70% overnight but did drop it a bit to 50-60% am rains as the models are clearing it through faster now so rainfall amounts are probably not going to be as high due to the faster speed.

Also, models went overkill I think with the impressiveness of this event, the entire system is looking a bit more meager than model forecasts suggested. With temps only in the 50's and instability that is virtually non-existent. I really don't know why the SPC has Tallahassee in a slight risk, sure shear and upper support are strong, but even now, the upper support doesn't seem to be doing it's job too well so far, and even if it does ramp up. We've had way too many SPC slight risk events like this where shear and upper level energy look great but the instability is just too weak to support anything serious. I am pretty confident we won't see anything severe, but I would think a couple strong or isolated severe cells could impact areas right along the coast if any strong convection can get going later.

I guess the SPC feels like it's better to be safe than sorry just in case an area of local instability were to be utilized unexpectedly, because it wouldn't take much to get strong activity going, it just seems unlikely.


Seems to me though that bay news 9 rain chances are looking a little too low compared to the NWS.
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Way off topic.....

Find the #1 Song on the Day You Were Born

Note: May not work for Gro
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look at all his rain in the south and some snow to
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Quoting sar2401:
Oh, no Barb, not Naomi Klein. This is a woman with zero education in anything having to do with climate. She never even made it out of college. She hates capitalism. Every ill of the world is caused by capitalism. She wants to dismantle capitalism immediately but she has no coherent plan about what would replace it. It would be some from of vague, Utopian socialism, something envisioned by the Occupy movement, if that gives you an idea of how realistically she thinks. she is a self-hating Jew that has spent most of her life pandering to every Arab movement that would destroy Israel, something she also favors. She's a self-hating Canadian who believes her country is major contributor to every world ill. She obviously hates the United States, the cockpit of every ill the world has ever known. Cuba's OK though, and North Korea is just "misunderstood. Her affection for totalitarian solist countryies like Cuba and NOrth Korea should give one an a=idea of what kind of replacement
It's okay to hold opinions about others, but you've said some pretty slanderous--almost bigoted--things about Klein. She doesn't "hate" capitalism; she simply sees, as so many others do, that it's far from a perfect system. (And, FWIW, realizing that Netanyahu is a warmongerer does not make one a "self-hating Jew".)

Shorter: calm down, would you? Thanks! ;-)
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The Iñupiaqvillage of Kivalina remains torn between tradition and a deeply uncertain future.

The remote Alaskan village that needs to be relocated due to climate change

By Chris Mooney February 24


KIVALINA, ALASKA — This tiny and isolated town of 400 cannot be reached by road. It lies on a fragile barrier island along the Chukchi Sea, 83 miles above the Arctic circle. And for generations, the Iñupiat people of the region have hunted gigantic bowhead whales from camps atop the sea ice that stretches out from the town’s icy shores.

But in recent years, climate change has thinned the ice so much that it has become too dangerous to hunt the whales. Soon, the U.S. government says, it may be too dangerous to live here at all, with less sea ice to protect the barrier island from powerful waves that wash across the village.

“Global warming has caused us so much problems,” said Joseph Swan, Sr., a Kivalina elder, at a town meeting last week. The ice “does not freeze like it used to. It used to be like 10 to 8 feet thick, way out in the ocean.”

alaskaclimate-2300

The question now facing the town, the state of Alaska, and the nation is whether to move the people of Kivalina to a safer location nearby, either inland or further down the coast — and who would pay upwards of a hundred million dollars to do it. It’s a question already facing Kivalina and a handful of other native Alaskan villages, and in the coming decades could apply to numerous other towns along U.S. coastlines. Here, climate change is less a future threat and more a daily force, felt in drastic changes to weather, loss of traditional means of sustenance like whale hunting, and the literal vanishing of land.

“We have a whole bunch of infrastructure that we need to move, that the government should be moving themselves,” said Colleen Swan, who sits on the City Council and also works in disaster preparedness for the community. “I would like to live without having to worry about having to evacuate, or having to run.”

The role the U.S. government will play is still an open question. Interior secretary Sally Jewell came to Kivalina last week to highlight the problems facing the town, and President Obama has proposed $50.4 million in federal spending to help Native American communities grapple with climate change. Yet that is less than half of what’s estimated to be needed to relocate Kivalina alone.

Congress, controlled by Republicans skeptical of federal spending and interventions to stem climate change, may not approve even that. While it is not clear how congressional Republicans will respond to this budget request, in the past they have objected to climate-related initiatives, for instance the administration’s recent pledge to spend up to $3 billion to help other nations adapt to climate change.

“The President’s climate change agenda has only siphoned precious taxpayer dollars away from the real problems facing the American people,” said Sen. James M. Inhofe (R-Okl.) late last year.
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Quoting 500. SouthTampa:

I am a published author in my field (pharmacy). I know how much effort it takes to do scientific research. Sure it's easy to copy info, but is it easy to understand what you are copying? Some folks have made it patently clear that they lack the critical thinking skills to comprehend what they are reading and that is evidenced through their posts.
I doubt the way people post relates to the knowledge or lack of, a certain subject. It takes a heck of a lot more time and effort to write a paper on a certain subject and is far more time intensive then most people are willing to spend on a blog, especially when their ideas will never really matter. What ever is causing the climate to change, good or bad, depending on your view, will all come out in the wash. Eventually we as a species will have the knowledge and hopefully be able to help resolve the problem, because if capitalism is one of the major causes of a warmer world, then we better buy some ocean front property in the foothills of North Carolina.
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Quoting 544. sar2401:

I don't know what happened there. I was writing a draft, hit the wrong key combination in Chrome, and it disappeared. I didn't realize the key combination actually posted it. I would have made it less of a rant when I was done editing. However, the basic premise is still correct, Naomi Klein has only one purpose in life, and it's to destroy capitalism. Climate change is just her latest route to accomplish her goal.


Looks like solid rains for you today. What's your total at?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Torcon of 3 for the Florida Panhandle and Southern Ga dropping down into central Florida tonight and tomorrow morning.
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Quoting barbamz:

Hey, ranting Sar, better take your complains to the editorial staff of "Spiegel" ;-) And I really hope capitalism will be able to prove Naomi Klein wrong and safe us from AGW and its destructive results ...
I don't know what happened there. I was writing a draft, hit the wrong key combination in Chrome, and it disappeared. I didn't realize the key combination actually posted it. I would have made it less of a rant when I was done editing. However, the basic premise is still correct, Naomi Klein has only one purpose in life, and it's to destroy capitalism. Climate change is just her latest route to accomplish her goal.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Nearby Weather Stations 4pm not bad 32F
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
36.4 °F
DopplerDon.com
36.3 °F
Rock Hill
36.0 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
35.2 °F
Foxon
36.5 °F
East Haven Town Beach
36.4 °F
east haven morgan point
36.0
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather